Yep . A super tight inside month. Especially compared to recent months.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Really low volume to boot.

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We still have 2 weeks to add to that same volume bar.......

Bnels1323 said:

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Hey guys, I have a question. I am too young to remember how 2008 and the previous infamous crashes commenced. If we run into what seems to be an inevitable market downturn, do y'all envision a consistently gradual negative market or do y'all see a day of historic losses? thanks

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So far, this looks very similar to 2008. At this point, both have had 4 distinct selloffs and 4 rallies off of those, next few weeks will be telling if we continue the pattern of 2008, or bounce more.

You don't see one historic day, the selloffs usually come in waves.

2008 was merely the end of a long term correction that started with the dot com bust. Since then, the market went parabolic. If anything, this is the beginning of an even longer term correction. We might just be looking for a bottom in Phase 1. And maybe the FED bails out the elites again and we have to wait 2-3 more years. Who knows. The only thing you can do is keep your head on a swivel. The truly main key you have to understand is that we are no longer in a bull market where surprise happen upward. At best we are in a sideways market. And worst is a bear market. Manage risk.

https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2022/07/15/15-year-old-boy-to-become-sam-houston-state-universitys-youngest-graduate-wants-to-become-cardiologist/

This is a nice story

Nice story! But why set sights so low…Cardiology?!? :-))

Now, he needs to learn options trading.

Finished Devil Take the Hindmost. Great book.

Author had one great comment near the end. I'll summarize. Basically, as speculation rises, central banks can do one of two things to tame speculation: Moral suasion (failed efforts historically especially in 1920s - Tell of the dangers to the speculators) and to raise interest rates.

Makes me wonder if Dimon's recent "economic hurricane" comment and WFC/BAC banks chair's allusions to risks ahead are a brand of moral suasion. And the Fed has clearly targeted a series of rate hikes.

I would STRONGLY recommend to read this book. People who don't understand history are doomed to repeat it. And this is a beautiful look at the history of financial speculation and gives great insight to some of the booms and busts of the past.

Cheers!

Quote:

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Author had one great comment near the end. I'll summarize. Basically, as speculation rises, central banks can do one of two things to tame speculation: Moral suasion (failed efforts historically especially in 1920s - Tell of the dangers to the speculators) and to raise interest rates.

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Actually, there is a third thing the Fed could do, but they avoid it like the third rail. The Fed has the authority to raise margin rates. Speculation can be reduced in spectacular fashion by increasing that rate. Weak players drop out fast. Allen Greenspan could have stopped the DotCom bubble and chose not to. This margin rate increase isn't my idea, but I learned it (about it) before the DotCom bubble burst.

I dont remember. I'll need to research that one ...1988 through 90 was a blurred dark cloud for me. Went from a divorce to stumbling into a massive company fraud situation. Lucky me. I am thinking of writing a book about the company fraud part. It had twists and turns like a real suspense movie. Near this ordeal end, those b@$tards set a trap and I was terminated. The co-conspirators thought it was over and they were safe with me out. In the real end, I brought the whole mutha-effin' house of fraud down...all of it. Corporate senior leadership couldn't save me from the trap, but they knew what was going on from my communications to them. I put my trust in them - they were all I had. They just needed hard proof and I didn't have it at the time; however, I delivered the knock out blow later. The company tried to rehire me, but I decided it was better to move on. Crazy few years for me, but I did get to meet Jerry Lee Lewis during that time period and spent the afternoon at his house in Hernando, Mississippi! The silver lining..

Everyone has a story and it shapes other beliefs and convictions and informs our day to day lives. That's the beauty of this thread. We all see a different aspect but if we get enough points of view, the real image becomes clear. If we ever meet up, would love to hear the story.

Jerry Lee Lewis and Jimmy Swaggart were cousins. I met their other cousin when I worked at Saltgrass in 1999. The guy told me he didn't like to claim Swaggart hahaha!!

Jalapeño lime spritzer on this hot summer day with Pat Green playing. Beautiful day.

When WWR hits $25 we need to have a big ass tailgate in the fall. Maybe hire Pat Green to play at the tailgate.

Edit.. if WWR hits $25 we could probably afford to hire George Straight

If true, I doubt it's priced in. It has traded sideways since it dropped last quarter.

ProgN said:

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$NFLX said it expects to report a loss of 2 million subscribers for the second quarter after announcing an unexpected first-quarter subscriber loss of 200,000 users in April - Yahoo Finance

If this is accurate, I'm scared to see what the stock does.

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BrokeAssAggie said:

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WTI and energy sector rocket?


https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2022/07/16/saudi-arabia-no-additional-capacity-to-increase-oil-production-beyond-13-million-bpd/

Saudi Arabia: no additional capacity to increase oil production beyond 13 million bpd

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WTI (& Brent) and energy sector rocket? Yes, it should. Last night, Jake Sullivan trying to spread disinformation this weekend stating KSA will produce 50% more crude all to depress the oil price. Today, Jake has had to do a U-turn on the statement. KSA fine print was a crude increase....by 2027. Saudi can pump 11 mbpd. They have done 12 mbpd but can't sustain that number. Biden got nothing from MBS. = Bullish

There is focus on Demand Destruction, but it's really Demand Reaction. The current numbers suggest demand reduction, but it's a tiny bit convoluted with the Holiday in recent numbers. Most folks are making some adjustments to driving, but it appears it's business (driving) as usual even with $5/gal. = Bullish

It's not crude,....the bottleneck is refining capacity. This Administration will continue SPR releases until the end of October. OPEC+ will continue to reduce crude production slightly to offset the SPR and keep the S&D flush. OPEC+ is not looking to crash the market price. ....... Might be able to "show" a crude build and put crude price under pressure, but refined products will face a tight supply moving forward. = Neutral to Bullish

Once the SPR releases are stopped in October the S&D will show there is no crude build. It's net deficit. = Bullish

Maybe, before the October stoppage of SPR releases you could see a no crude build, because Russia shut down the Kazakh Pipeline for 30 days (starting July 1) and that's equivalent to the SPR releases. In theory, the S&D should show a negative in a crude build (deficit). = Bullish

XOM, CVX, OXY, BP, and other O&G stocks,....as long as crude is higher than $45, most of these businesses are printing money. = Bullish (Some are more bullish than others. I think WB is making a play for OXY)

If we go back to the first rate inversion months ago (the inversion everyone ignored) that lasted all of a day or 2, that may have been a true signal start of a bear market/recession. = Bearish (That "signal" means we are in a recession now...without the NBER putting their stamp of approval on a "recession" as "official". Also, the NBER doesn't necessarily confirm a recession with 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. They are the official body who determines if and when a recession is official.)

In a recession, solid value stocks are where to be, but they can go down in price with the rest of the market, overall a better investment (O&G are in this group). = Bullish

Europe is doing the backstroke,...the Green Energy Law was amended to include NatGas and Nuclear as Green Energy. France has nuclear for the majority of its needs. Germany is a total cluster, unwilling to restart any nuclear and they are at the end of a long process of shutting down their coal fueled electrical generating plants. Well, Germany is now restarting the coal fueled electricity plants again, only problem is, there's no supply of coal shipments to these locations, the critical personnel to operate these plants have left for other jobs, and last - guess who furnishes 40% of the coal to these coal fueled electric plants - wait for it - RUSSIA! There is a mad scramble in Europe to secure fossil fuel to keep butts warm in the winter and I think they will be highly UNsuccessful. This cluster will likely lead to new leadership changes in many nations (some taking place now) and all the way to a potential break off of some countries from the EU. = Bullish

This Administration is canceling drilling off the Atlantic, Pacific and "maybe" in the Gulf...relatively new info. And, the EPA is going after Permian right now. = Bullish

Over 225 million barrels have been released out of the SPR in a period of a few months. It took right at 4 years to put 225 million barrels in the SPR. At some point the SPR has to be refilled. = Bullish

Once the sour crude is no longer available or a small percentage of the mix, U.S. refiners will slow as it will take more time to refine what crude is available in the market. = Bullish

Limited to no CAPEX was invested over the last 2 to 3 years by petro companies to keep up with basic growing demand. Foreign producers are slow to react/invest to the demand because they do not want to kill the market price with an over-supply. U.S. companies are reluctant to invest with the Administration trying to run them out of business and coerce Big Banks to not loan money to Big Oil. = Bullish

Russia is selling crude (cheap) to China, India and Saudi. India and Saudi are refining the Russian crude and selling on the open market. Sanctions aren't working. = Neutral

Russia/Ukraine War. = Bullish (Should the war end in 2022, Europe will cozy up to Russia for fossil fuels and it's foolish to think otherwise. Green Energy sounds great until your ass gets cold. Because the structural CAPEX investments have not been made to expand the fossil fuel industry over the last 2 to 3 years, that's why this is bullish and not bearish.)

Fossil Fuel Structure = Bullish (The industry is behind structurally and will not catch up in 2 years - it will take longer)

Discussion of Green Energy transition in countries started faster then what they were ready/prepared for. = Bullish (Yes, you can not have Green Energy without fossil fuels. Also, to replace ICE vehicles with EV's, it will take 2X the amount of fossil fuel to operate that entire model than operating with 100% fossil fuel today. Let that one sink it.)

Eventually, the O&G sector will top and even in a recession, O&G will not be able sustain upward momentum, but it will be better than the other sectors.

XOM will have a monster Q2 and they have hinted already. They have $11 billion in cash. They have a $30 billion buyback and I would not be surprised to see the buyback grow. XOM historically announces a div hike in the 3Q and I'm certain they'll increase this year.

I am looking for XOM (specifically) to run, run slowly, to earnings(July) and then to payout(Sep), and then maybe a couple days after payout(Sep). Once XOM hits $95 in this time period, that price is an alert signal to me. I will use that signal to start monitoring, or selling, 2024 (maybe 2025) Call Options/Leaps, on everything I own (XOM and all other stocks - energy and nonenergy). Maybe XOM can make another ATH in a few months, but right now I dont think I'm going to wait. I am starting to see more weakness and I feel I don't want to participate in 2023 markets. I do think there's a good chance to see a buying op in Oct and a rally to S&P 5,000 by mid 2023; however, Powell and Biden are showing me a different side and could tank things. I believe I am going to sell Option/Leaps premiums and exit. I'll collect dividends and wait it out. I might be able to buy the Leaps back if the market retreats in Oct and reposition after a potential run up(that S&P 5,000 I mention above). I typically do not unwind my plans, i.e. the Oct buyback and hope for a runup to re-establish the position.

That's my plan. This market feels tricky and I don't want to miss the op. I have GTC orders in the system now at prices that will not execute in today's world. On execution day, I'll just change the order to a price I want and be done. Beats having to type in orders for everything I have planned, especially in a fast moving day.

Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

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This first link is a great read. Recommended read. It really sums up the German energy disaster. This link would likely make a great "conversation starter" over on the Politics Board. Feel free to take it over there.

https://quillette.com/2022/07/14/germanys-energy-catastrophe/


Second link. Short read. Real laugher.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russias-gas-shutoff-forcing-europes-172331595.html#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16580271551455&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Fnews%2Frussias-gas-shutoff-forcing-europes-172331595.html


Third link. Short read. Where does Russian energy go in the worldwide marketplace..

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/saudi-arabia-doubles-discounted-russian-fuel-oil-imports/

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There's been more than one thread on F16 about this already. Side note, even if anyone hates F16, it really is great news aggregator for breaking news. Germany has just recently reclassified nuclear and nat gas plants as now being green. In the interim, they are firing up their existing coal plants. The main problem with that is that Russia was their main source for coal.

The purchase of wood stoves has spiked considerably all across Germany and they're stacking wood for the winter right now. Green bull**** always works, until it doesn't. I'd like a reporter to interview the elitist ****** bags from Germany that laughed at Trump addressing the UN and warning them of exactly what they are now facing.

Yes very true! SPY also put up a hanging man type candle after a gap up. Again, wait for confirmation but this could be a means to retest recent lows.

Plus, coupling this knowledge with Cramer ringing the bell, look out below!

Jim Cramer is ringing the bell at the New York Stock exchange tomorrow.

The last time he did it, March 10th, 2015, became, up until that point, the worst day in the market of 2015.

The Dow plummeted 332.7 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dropped about 1.7%.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 17, 2022