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24,724,262 Views | 233435 Replies | Last: 4 min ago by aggies4life
ProgN
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Yeah, this has been my argument. When the oil companies lost their 50 day MA's, I became more bearish on that front.
Biden will take credit for the slight drop but Americans aren't prepared for where the price of gas will be when the US, EU and China come out of a recession. $10/gal is a certainty with his EPA attacking the Permian Basin and his destruction of offshore drilling. When demand ramps up, just watch how much gas skyrockets.

I'm not very familiar with commodity futures but I'd be interested in buying calls/leaps on the price of gas if that's a possibility. I could see that as a huge opportunity to make a crap ton of money.
ProgN
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Something to consider is that NVDA could have put in a bottom. I'm not calling it but today is very interesting to me. It had capitulation at the open and has reversed on heavy volume. It will easily surpass it's 10 day average trading volume today. It might be shorts covering but I don't see a catalyst, or this could be the reversal. I'm keeping a sharp eye on this one.
LMCane
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Bonds flash recession warning light as key part of the yield curve inverts again

PUBLISHED TUE, JUL 5 202212:31 PM EDTUPDATED 44 MIN AGO

KEY POINTS

  • The closely watched Treasury yield curve is sending a warning that the economy may be falling or has already fallen into recession.
  • The curve between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year yield has become inverted, meaning the 2-year is now higher than the 10-year.
  • "There's something afoot in investor sentiment that is difficult to ignore, given the inversion is occurring with 10-year yields below 3%," said one bond market strategist.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Model T from last week high to low is 382.86. Seems this area was more or less tested overnight and failed and looks like it may retest this afternoon or tomorrow early.
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
We going green?
Brewmaster
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AG
ProgN said:

BREwmaster said:

Red Pear DFW Luke said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

I mostly get draft kings ads and sometimes Rebecca Creek whiskey (no Rebecca's Creek is not a vague porn reference).

Sounds like me and tumble weed are cut from the same cloth haha.


You're thinking of Rebecca's Cheeks.
you had me at cheeks! never too early for a rally girl




You thieving ******* without citation. That's cool, we all know who you got them.

rally booty FTW!
sts7049
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AG
breaking down then recapturing 3800 is probably a pretty bullish sign
gougler08
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AG
sts7049 said:

breaking down then recapturing 3800 is probably a pretty bullish sign


Agreed, nice surprise today
Saltyag15
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AG
Pretty big tech rebound across the board. Especially small-mid caps.
wanderer
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

We going green?
We may not close green, but we going green (SPY)
Brian Earl Spilner
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AG
Friday and today look eerily similar on the 5D chart.
wanderer
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There she is
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Mancini hasn't sounded this bullish in a while

Bonfire1996
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AG
This is what happens when Wall Street prices in a Fed Funds rate of 4.5% by 1Q2023 and we are only going to get 2.75%.

The Bond market, which has been crippled during the 1st half of 2022 is about to find incredible stability and money is going to absolutely pour into big tech over the next 3 months.
ProgN
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Bonfire1996 said:

This is what happens when Wall Street prices in a Fed Funds rate of 4.5% by 1Q2023 and we are only going to get 2.75%.

The Bond market, which has been crippled during the 1st half of 2022 is about to find incredible stability and money is going to absolutely pour into big tech over the next 3 months.
Don't stop, I'm almost there.
BaylorSpineGuy
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So bonds and stocks rallying together? Interesting.

I thought their simultaneous fall was unique. I did not see a sustained rally in equities for almost another year. I figured when QT stopped, there would be a more sustained rally.
Bonfire1996
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:

So bonds and stocks rallying together? Interesting.

I thought their simultaneous fall was unique. I did not see a sustained rally in equities for almost another year. I figured when QT stopped, there would be a more sustained rally.
Stability =\= Rally

Tech will rally
Blue chips will stagnate
Brewmaster
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AG
and for good reason... seasonality on average is pointing up, way up time to go long some QQQ or SPY verticals!

Jet Black
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wanderer
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Funny
ProgN
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Bonfire1996 said:



Tech will rally



Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Bonfire1996 said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

So bonds and stocks rallying together? Interesting.

I thought their simultaneous fall was unique. I did not see a sustained rally in equities for almost another year. I figured when QT stopped, there would be a more sustained rally.
Stability =\= Rally

Tech will rally
Blue chips will stagnate

Would your ABBV position switch to GOOGL have anything to do with this?

Brewmaster
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AG
first post this mornin? this thread has lower volume than the S&P this summer, lol.

Here's to a red to green move today!
Spoony Love
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AG
BaylorSpineGuy
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Starting to think this is gonna trade for a few days in the 3730-3850 range and eat premium. Sorta like last month in the 4070-4180 range.
Ranger222
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AG
Would selfishly love a couple inside days here to burn premium and get myself set up into some tech calls. Two days chop and a huge 0 DTE day on Friday to end the week? Giggity
Triple_Bagger
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FOMC Meeting Minutes release at 1:00pm central time.
Bonfire1996
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AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

Bonfire1996 said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

So bonds and stocks rallying together? Interesting.

I thought their simultaneous fall was unique. I did not see a sustained rally in equities for almost another year. I figured when QT stopped, there would be a more sustained rally.
Stability =\= Rally

Tech will rally
Blue chips will stagnate

Would your ABBV position switch to GOOGL have anything to do with this?


I do love it when tech companies with amazing balance sheets that print money get caught in an overall sector rotation. GOOGL has no business trading at 19x earnings. It is a 30x PE stock all day.

The whole reason tech rotated to bear market was based upon the premise that cheap borrowing was gone for 3-5 years and marginally profitable or unprofitable tech was going to have a harder time making profit projections. That's the reason. That doesn't apply to GOOGL. They have more cash on the balance sheet than total debt. Nonetheless, cheap borrowing will be back in 2023 so it's time for tech to run.

If GOOGL isn't everyone's number 1 long term buy right now, I can't help anyone.

Now, more importantly, I want to see VLO pullback to $95 and I can rotate in. What's your thoughts there?
LMCane
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2 and 10 year bond yields inverted once again.

that's about 24 hours now - and the third time in the last six months.

recession incoming.
BaylorSpineGuy
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SPX pivoted on 3848. Looks like may retest here.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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If QQQ and TSLA both confirm back above opening prices I'm going TSLA 700C.

If not I'll watch SPX for a sign that this will be a red opening hour.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I bought a few TSLA 670P, since we are under opening price.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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That 5-day sma was a battle for TSLA, but it looks like it finally broke down? Edit, nope not yet. Still clinging on to life.bif it does get past this, there's Friday's close at 681.79 and what's been battle ground are there. Then we have a ways down if we did get through.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Was this a head fake and then bear trap? I sold for a loss of a $284 so far on the day. I need more directional certainty to be in these.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I got in on TSLA 700C.
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