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24,725,224 Views | 233440 Replies | Last: 8 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Folks,

I think some of you might have bought UPRO/TQQQ because I did it. I sold most at the close on Friday because we reclaimed the mean (21 day EMA) and my goal was mean reversion. I set my stop on the remainder at yesterday's opening price. That's the $36 area on UPRO.

Every pro trader I know scales out on profits and moves their stops up. This is the type of trade to not let turn red. You'll be pissed at yourself if this comes all the way back down. I bought small in the 35s, bought big in the 32s and scaled out at 35, 37, and 38.5. 20%+ on an index trade is pretty darn good. Don't forget that there's a gap below in addition to above. Anyway, it's important to recognize when R/R is less in your favor.

Some tactics you can take:

  • Sell at least some when RSI becomes overbought and the price is well above the mean
  • Rebuy trading shares on dips to retouch the mean (think 30 min / 60 min timeframes)
  • Keep full lot and move stop to be the 30/60 minute mean. This is the most aggressive and while you can catch the entirety of a big move, maybe, you also run the risk of giving up a bunch of gains. I don't really do this except for small runners most of the time

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Are you in Padre?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I am sure Daniel will come along and tell me how stupid I am for this, but I think $UNG or $BOIL could have some upside. There is an RSI divergence on them and they're near -3.

For you guys, I would trade UNG over BOIL. BOIL is for pros and you can get murdered on it. Target $24, stop should be 20.5 or so. $0.70 in downside, $2.80 in upside. I like those odds.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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I'm out. Peace folks.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
ProgN
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How's your downtime going? Are you recharging and finding a better place? We all want the best for you and your family. No need to reply, just know you're respected and we look forward to your return at full strength. We all love ya brother. Good to see you.
Ragoo
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When a trade goes my way, a lot more often the last 3 months, I set a trailing stop at break even. As the trade continue to rise I tighten my stop. Sometimes I get stopped on a minor retest and it continues up but when a reversal happens I am out with my profit.
ProgN
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Y'all know I'm not a fan of stops because I've posted that in the past. That said, they could've minimized my losses after reflecting back on my trades that I definitely took a punch in my junk. Stop loss orders are good security for small accounts or new traders so I support that. FTR, I'm focused on just hitting singles during this bear market and my arrogance has burned me when I wasn't able to monitor it. I'm not right or wrong in my opinion and stop/loss orders are what people should do if new or small accounts. I'm extremely aggressive and the wrong trades hurt a lot, but the right ones more than make up for it. If a trader can maintain 80%+ success rate on their trades, then it doesn't matter if they make $1 or $100K in a day their account continues to grow.
$30,000 Millionaire
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All good here and thank you. I've just needed a professional break and it's great to get one.

I haven't used a computer in a while and that's been awesome.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Yeah.
AgsMyDude
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You take a sabbatical?
irish pete ag06
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ProgN said:

test

ETA: all good




irish pete ag06
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

All good here and thank you. I've just needed a professional break and it's great to get one.

I haven't used a computer in a while and that's been awesome.


Congrats again bud. Happy for you getting this break. Good for the soul and the brain.
ProgN
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Brian Earl Spilner
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FJ43
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Yesterday took Mrs FJ to 25th anniversary of Riverdance performance.

Today took Mrs FJ for a hike to Andrew's Bald just off the Appalachian trail.

Hope y'all got out with the family this weekend!




Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

cgh1999
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Was hiking in the backcountry at Philmont for the last two weeks. Haven't looked at my accounts. What'd I miss?
gougler08
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I'm in Manila for work but got to play golf out by the mountains, what a great experience. And yes that's my ball in the first pic that was an eagle putt (that I of course missed)





Brian Earl Spilner
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Brian Earl Spilner said:



Clamatos and beach life for the next couple weeks.


spud1910
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Look at you guys! I spent my Saturday in near 100 degree heat working on barb wire fence and moving cows.
Brewmaster
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sts7049
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my gamble this week is on weekly AMD calls
ProgN
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spud1910 said:

Look at you guys! I spent my Saturday in near 100 degree heat working on barb wire fence and moving cows.


BlitzBrother
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Recognize the Padre water , just back today , great weather this past week .
irish pete ag06
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Spent my weekend watching my sons little all star team. They got eliminated. Proud of the little dude. He cares a lot. Took it pretty hard.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Green across the board. Europe is green and Asia is really green. There's still hope for that test of 4100.
austinAG90
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Equities Better Globally as Quarter End Approaches...Bonds Lower Steeper

We are continuing the trend from last week, where we learned that Powell's Unconditional fight on inflation has a mitigating factor of recession... Last week was one of the best holiday shortened weeks of recent times... Even bonds rallied with 2 years moving 50+ basis better and 10 years 47 basis from the previous weeks highs... Now we have quarter end coming up on Thursday and an EARLY CLOSE FRIDAY... So what do we expect... We think we have this one right.

Equities hit a low for S+P futures overnight at 8 PM... And then rallied 53 points to a high 3948... We are now about 10 points off that... But the real outlook is where is the next trade going... We think we are in the midst of a bear rally, that has some more room to go... We read no less than 4 analyses on where we are to go.. From the likes of Bannister of Stifel, to Wilson of Stanley and Kolvanic of JP... Most see us reaching 4150 ish on the S+P... That is what the charts indicate... Wilson, who has been more right recently, has us going up another 5-7%.. Kolvanic, who has been more wrong recently, sees us rallying another 7%... Quarter end re allocations, while not as strong as due to last week's rally, should sustain us for the week... Assuming PCI is not terrible...as for when we start to reverse, clearly it will be before the next Fed meeting on July 27... BUT MORE LIKELY JULY 13 WHEN THE NEXT CPI COMES OUT... But we are hoping for positive fireworks at the Jackson Hole meeting in August...

Corporate buy backs... There are different strategies being promoted in the corporate buy back arena... Where the normal buying of equities to support a stock are still being done, a new version where companies buy back low dollar corporate debt is making significant inroads... With trillions issued over the last two years at 1-2% handles, there are many bonds from quality companies trading at under 80 handles... A corporation can buy back that debt at a discount, book a profit on the difference from 100 to the buyback, and reduce debt... While this is not a recommendation, we do have a CPA, so we understand the process... Years ago, when we ran a large book for a primary dealer, we would accumulate large blocks of high coupon debt for the reverse for FNMA and Freddie... Anyone remember the FNMA 12.35 of 2013?...maybe two people?

Fed... Very little Fed speak this week... Powell speaks at a conference, but the insight on Powell was last week... The Congress is growing more worried about a recession rather than inflation... Inflation remains priority one, but recession is right there with them... When Warren of Mass leads with "if you can't control gas prices or food prices, why use a blunt tool to send the economy into recession..."...Republicans do not want a recession either

Credit... New issues have been very slow... We expect that to continue...Blackrock, through Rick Rieder on WSW, said that they are buying credit slowly as they see value... Nuveen and GMO made similar comments in Barron's... Given the recent doubling of yields in BB, they can see as much as a 30% return on the horizon, given previous history... Not sure about that...

We will end it here... But hedge funds remain short with very low historical nets of equity exposure according to Stanley... So expect better equity markets through Thursday, but we concerned about the Bear, and look to exit some risk before July 13...
Red Red Wine
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Always love reading these in the morning. Thanks again for posting this.
La Bamba
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If you can decipher the emoji-speak, I think Cem has similar views about July 13 as AustinAg.

Bob Knights Paper Hands
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We opened up but immediately moved down and pulled back below Friday close. Let's see if we bounce here and move up further or if we're in for a "surprise" down day. Above and below opening prices on SPX, QQQ, and TSLA are my key indicators for this morning. I'm hoping to have some direction by 8:46. If not I'll wait until 9:15 at the latest and then look for trading off the highs and lows of intraday Bollinger bands.
Brian Earl Spilner
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I may have missed the move. I'm going to wait and see what SPX does testing the 20-ema.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I scalped some TSLA puts for a little money, but the macros look like they want to reverse here so I was quick to take profits. VIX moving down a bit and SPX defending that 20-ema.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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If TSLA get back above 748, I'm buying some 750C. Quarter portion.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:

If TSLA get back above 748, I'm buying some 750C. Quarter portion.

A test back to 738 and then bounce over opening price would add certainty, IMO. TSLA wants to go, but macros need to come with it. Otherwise we may get chop instead of trend.
texagbeliever
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CRWD with a strong recovery. Hopefully the market follows.
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