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FJ43
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6:47p, 6/14/22
Ok...ok....ok...I know it's rough. But geeze gents give me more than 2 whole pages to read at night.

I would think this thread would be jumping with the current market.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:03p, 6/14/22
I made $400 from 8:43-8:45 and then was too busy to play anymore. Yay I guess. I'll try to be more fun tomorrow.
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FJ43
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 7:37p, 6/14/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
I made $400 from 8:43-8:45 and then was too busy to play anymore. Yay I guess. I'll try to be more fun tomorrow.
Congrats! That's a win. Take it and enjoy the evening.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BrokeAssAggie
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7:42p, 6/14/22
I made a nice dinner tonight
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FJ43
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7:42p, 6/14/22

Maybe watch this to clear/confirm the 200

FDX
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Diggity
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8:25p, 6/14/22
AG
Well this ain't good

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BrokeAssAggie
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8:29p, 6/14/22
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ProgN
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In reply to Diggity • 8:34p, 6/14/22
Diggity said:
Well this ain't good

It's just beginning. I expect several companies to announce layoffs as part of their forward guidance when they start reporting earnings next month.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to ProgN • 8:44p, 6/14/22
AG
yep.
recession starting in 5, 4, 3, 2....
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ProgN
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In reply to Brewmaster • 8:55p, 6/14/22
Worse, stagflation.
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BlueTaze
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9:13p, 6/14/22


For those looking for insight into Fed, Joseph Wang used to work for them and has been spot on last 6mo. Wish I found him back then.

He says it will be 50 hike and that Fed can just signal faster pace for longer duration to be more hawkish. Instead of going beyond forecast to 75.
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ProgN
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9:26p, 6/14/22
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2022/06/13/ten-point-plan-to-restore-us-energy-leadership-fuel-economic-recovery

I pulled this from a thread on F16 but it's important for this thread as well. The 10 point plan will never be granted but it's good to fire back against the 'greedy oil companies' narrative that Biden is spouting.

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FishrCoAg
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In reply to ProgN • 9:36p, 6/14/22
AG
ProgN said:
https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/news/2022/06/13/ten-point-plan-to-restore-us-energy-leadership-fuel-economic-recovery

I pulled this from a thread on F16 but it's important for this thread as well. The 10 point plan will never be granted but it's good to fire back against the 'greedy oil companies' narrative that Biden is spouting.



Hard to see how anyone could oppose those points, but they will
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to ProgN • 9:37p, 6/14/22
Hell, just give us #5, 7, and 9 and it would solve most of the energy issues. It makes me sick how much this administration has worked to impede the oil and gas industry and then blames them for lower production and higher prices. You have to be an absolute psychopath to be this dishonest and hurtful to your own country. Off soap box.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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9:39p, 6/14/22
Here's a starter list on layoffs if you're not keeping score at home..

6/14/22
Coinbase - is laying off 18% of work force
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-to-cut-18-of-workforce-amid-crypto-slump-271655210412?mod=search_headline

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/14/coinbase-will-layoff-around-1100-employees/

Redfin (RDFN) - reduction of 470
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/redfin-compass-layoffs-housing-market-51655225341?mod=search_headline

Compass (COMP) - reduction of 450
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/redfin-compass-layoffs-housing-market-51655225341?mod=search_headline

Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD)


Stellantis
https://www.wxyz.com/money/auto-news/stellantis-to-lay-off-workers-at-sterling-heights-stamping-plant

BlockFi
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tech-companies-layoffs-stock-market-cryptocurrency/


6/13/22
LOTS OF COMPANIES IN THIS LINK
https://news.crunchbase.com/startups/tech-layoffs-2022/


6/12/22
OneTrust
https://www.msspalert.com/cybersecurity-talent/onetrust-layoffs-security-company-cuts-25-of-staff/


6/9/22
Stitch Fix (SFIX) - said it was cutting 15% of its salaried workers, or about 330 people, mostly in non-tech corporate jobs and styling leadership.
The move comes as the company reported disappointing results for the fiscal third quarter and gave a weak outlook for the fourth quarter. The job cuts equal about 4% of its workforce and will lead to annual cost savings estimated at $40 million to $60 million in fiscal year 2023, the company said.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stitch-fix-stock-price-earnings-layoffs-51654811992?mod=search_headline


6/7/22
ID.me
https://funancial.news/id-me-a-1-47-billion-identity-startup-that-closed-deals-with-unemployment-agencies-and-the-irs-laid-off-employees-after-growth-spurt/

Bird
https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/07/bird-plans-to-layoff-23-of-staff/


6/6/2022
PolicyGenius
https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/investments/wealth-technology/policygenius-lays-off-25-of-its-personnel-months-after-raising-125-million/367192
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to BlueTaze • 9:45p, 6/14/22
Quote:
He says it will be 50 hike and that Fed can just signal faster pace for longer duration to be more hawkish. Instead of going beyond forecast to 75.
You know, I can't imagine Jerome Powell being swayed by Big Banks, economists, politicians, and media talking heads to change his mind in what he telegraphed to the public. It'll be a 50bps move. If he changes direction, it will appear he's not calling the shots, IMO.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Diggity • 9:48p, 6/14/22
WBD - this is not a surprise to me and there will be a lot more cuts over there. Zaslav and Malone are turning a battleship in a river. This is good for WBD. The WB Hollywood employees think they are holding Zaslav over a barrel and that's a mistake.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to ProgN • 10:00p, 6/14/22
Thanks for bringing that link over. I doubt I would have seen it otherwise. I heard liberal heads exploding in the background as I read those points. That #5 is the freaking bell cow of the entire list. I'm surprised it wasn't first, but I understand why they placed it lower politically. #5 unwinds all of FJB Green Energy Plan. Hopefully API circulates this far and wide. (Had to set my Liberal neighbors straight today about the petroleum industry, FJB lies about Exxon not paying taxes, oil leases and Exxon/Chevron profit versus Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Google. Didn't make conservatives out of them, but they received a lot of facts they have never heard before.)
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Philip J Fry
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11:10p, 6/14/22
AG


We are set up for a reversal. Powell just needs to not screw it up.
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FJ43
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 5:23a, 6/15/22
EFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Here's a starter list on layoffs if you're not keeping score at home..

6/14/22
Coinbase - is laying off 18% of work force
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coinbase-to-cut-18-of-workforce-amid-crypto-slump-271655210412?mod=search_headline

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/14/coinbase-will-layoff-around-1100-employees/

Redfin (RDFN) - reduction of 470
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/redfin-compass-layoffs-housing-market-51655225341?mod=search_headline

Compass (COMP) - reduction of 450
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/redfin-compass-layoffs-housing-market-51655225341?mod=search_headline

Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD)


Stellantis
https://www.wxyz.com/money/auto-news/stellantis-to-lay-off-workers-at-sterling-heights-stamping-plant

BlockFi
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tech-companies-layoffs-stock-market-cryptocurrency/


6/13/22
LOTS OF COMPANIES IN THIS LINK
https://news.crunchbase.com/startups/tech-layoffs-2022/


6/12/22
OneTrust
https://www.msspalert.com/cybersecurity-talent/onetrust-layoffs-security-company-cuts-25-of-staff/


6/9/22
Stitch Fix (SFIX) - said it was cutting 15% of its salaried workers, or about 330 people, mostly in non-tech corporate jobs and styling leadership.
The move comes as the company reported disappointing results for the fiscal third quarter and gave a weak outlook for the fourth quarter. The job cuts equal about 4% of its workforce and will lead to annual cost savings estimated at $40 million to $60 million in fiscal year 2023, the company said.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/stitch-fix-stock-price-earnings-layoffs-51654811992?mod=search_headline


6/7/22
ID.me
https://funancial.news/id-me-a-1-47-billion-identity-startup-that-closed-deals-with-unemployment-agencies-and-the-irs-laid-off-employees-after-growth-spurt/

Bird
https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/07/bird-plans-to-layoff-23-of-staff/


6/6/2022
PolicyGenius
https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/investments/wealth-technology/policygenius-lays-off-25-of-its-personnel-months-after-raising-125-million/367192
Great post Farmer. Everyone on the thread should take note.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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6:34a, 6/15/22
Futures a bit green here, including SPX, NQ, and Russell 2000 futures. They are green in Europe and mixed in Asia. It does feel like a day where we at least release some selling pressure, if not retrace upwards quite a bit, unless the Fed screws it up. Long term this still seems like we've got more bear months to come, whether or not we go substantially lower in price.
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austinAG90
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6:59a, 6/15/22
AG
Fed Scenarios..Raising 50 or 75... Hawkish or Dovish...

We expect some wild rides over the next 36 hours as the Fed raises rates today…On Tuesday the 5 year moved in a 37 basis range... The Fed needs to bring that under control or activity will cease... No new issues so far this week.. The market has built in over 200 basis or rate hikes over the next three meetings... So two 75 and one 50... Or could it be 3 75's.. Terminal rates are now expected to be over 4%, peaking in March 2023... The catalysts for the Monday up in rates was the Timaros plant in the WSJ where he intimated the Fed wanted him to write a piece preparing the market for the potential of a rate hike of 75 today... The second catalyst for the swoosh move down in treasury prices Tuesday was the Dudley comments at the

WSJ... FORMER NY FED DUDLEY AT A WSJ EVENT ABOUT THE WEDNESDAY FOMC OUTCOME: I THINK THEY ARE GOING TO DO 75 BASIS POINTS. FED OFFICIALS ARE WORRIED A BIT ABOUT LOSING CREDIBILITY. YOU CAN MAKE ARGUMENT FOR 100 BASIS POINTS TOO.

Three Scenarios...

Scenario One... Raise 50 basis as originally said... And give a Hawkish tone that more will be done... This would placate those of us who believe the Fed should stick with what they said, which was that the next rate hike would be 50.. And that the Fed presser could say the Fed will do more... That is no longer the expected move... Street would fry the Fed for continuing to play catch up... Risk markets would continue to freeze up as the Fed loses more credibility...

Scenario Two... More likely the Fed tried to prepare the street that they now want to go 75 basis... And the market has built that in, even more than 75... Then the question is whether the Fed says they are trying to get ahead of inflation and will revert back to data dependence at the July meeting... That if numbers show any type of slowdown in inflation, that they could go back to 50 in July... We think this is the more likely scenario... Markets could rally initially... Shorts have been built up in bonds... And could get some legs... This is most likely... This would be called a necessary rate rise with a dovish flavor.

Scenario Three... Here we toyed with a 100 rate rise and believe that is not in the cards at all... So this scenario is 75 with an hawkish tint... Not sure how the initial reaction would be... Probably rally and then realize that 200 -225 of rate hikes are going to be necessary over the next three meetings... Maybe a relief that no 100, but still negative.

Dot plots will be important as to what the Fed really thinks... Is the Fed a Hawk in Dove's clothing?

5 years... We see a range of 3.75 to 3.10... While abnormally large for the next two days, we remind market participants that ALL US MARKETS WILL BE CLOSED FOR A NEW HOLIDAY MONDAY... We think the 10 year range is 3.75 to 3%... Both these numbers could be hit... Expect some of the most choppiest trading we have ever seen... Puts spreads for Friday anticipate the potential for a 3.80 yield on 10 years.. It could happen...
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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8:22a, 6/15/22
Is this a "Market Up" pre-Powell and a "Market Down" post-Powell kind of day?

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TecRecAg
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:35a, 6/15/22
AG
I'd agree with this.

Next stop 365 --> 350 (big psyche level) --> 345. I don't think we go lower.

Signed,
-Not the expert
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:39a, 6/15/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Is this a "Market Up" pre-Powell and a "Market Down" post-Powell kind of day?


That or it's a "Market Up" pre-Powell and a "Market More Upper" post-Powell kind of day. One of the two.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:42a, 6/15/22
WWR is up 3%, so I think that means the whole market is going to reverse and limit down.
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AgOutsideAustin
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In reply to Carlo4 • 8:43a, 6/15/22
AG
Carlo4 said:
59 South said:
Philip J Fry said:
wanderer said:
Not saying you should or shouldn't have bought it, just keep in mind it's a 3x leveraged fund. It experiences leverage-induced decay (math) over time and typically 3x leveraged funds aren't a good long-term hold because of this.


What's your definition of long?


Seriously no clever inappropriate responses to this? This thread is great but needs a humor upgrade.





Great one !!!
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ProgN
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9:06a, 6/15/22


I wouldn't be surprised if the left doesn't start advocate for nationalizing O&G companies. That would not be good for the stock market.
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ProgN
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9:07a, 6/15/22




A little humor for this morning.
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texagbeliever
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9:17a, 6/15/22
Looks like it might have turned here. See if TSLA has some fall in it.
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Ragoo
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In reply to ProgN • 9:18a, 6/15/22
AG
ProgN said:


I wouldn't be surprised if the left doesn't start advocate for nationalizing O&G companies. That would not be good for the stock market.
this would be nearly impossible to do
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Ragoo
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In reply to texagbeliever • 9:19a, 6/15/22
AG
texagbeliever said:
Looks like it might have turned here. See if TSLA has some fall in it.
I was loaded for the move before the move, looked away and missed it. Instead of trying to chase I am waiting.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Ragoo • 9:20a, 6/15/22
Ragoo said:
texagbeliever said:
Looks like it might have turned here. See if TSLA has some fall in it.
I was loaded for the move before the move, looked away and missed it. Instead of trying to chase I am waiting.
I took my profits so TSLA will freefall now.
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texagbeliever
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9:25a, 6/15/22
Watching MSFT. Holding 249 with a downtrend line setting up. Think we get market action if this breaks up or if 249 fails.

I'm guessing we will know direction by 9:36
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bmoochie
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9:28a, 6/15/22
AG
Question if anyone knows while we wait on minutes. I looked at a Friday expiry strangle on SPY as I think we get a big move one way or the other.

16 points down and 12 points up is roughly the same price which means the downside premium is more juiced. Could this be an indicator of sorts of what is to come?
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