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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:17a, 6/7/22
AG
Tsla will stop out for me.

I'm going to take a few more at bats with the scalp system I am
experimenting with. I think it's going to work, but it's rare to gal up 1% and then gap down 1% the next day.

Losses are small though.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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FriskyGardenGnome
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In reply to Red Red Wine • 8:25a, 6/7/22
AG
Red Red Wine said:
Am I the only one bothered by all of the institutional investor home buying that has been going on lately?

Seems creepy to me. What is the agenda here? These dudes making their own market bubble and forcing home prices to rise so they can raise rents and raise selling prices on their assets?

Seems almost like price-fixing at some point. I wonder if the Tx AG will at least take a moment to look at it and make sure it is "healthy" capitalism and not something else.
Not just single family homes or limited to TX, but there are big players actively buying up multi-family properties as well. This includes private student housing across the country. I assume it's to be capable of setting the rental market in the absence of strong competition.
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Tumble Weed
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In reply to J.P. 03 • 8:34a, 6/7/22
Great post about the underlying psychology of trading.

Learning to trade with stops was the hardest thing for me to implement.

It can be a great company with a perfect set of fundamentals and the market just says "not right now".

Admitting that I am wrong allows me to deploy elsewhere.

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Saltyag15
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8:37a, 6/7/22
AG
Idk what the hell I'd put the money in if I sold, but I bought XOM back in 2020. Avg cost $44.64. It eclipsed the $100 mark this morning, and approaching ATH. I still don't think O&G is going to be falling too hard anytime soon. Might just set a $95GTC stop on it and let it ride.
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Ranger222
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8:39a, 6/7/22
AG
Would think SPY fills the gap this morning and tests 412...after that who knows
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FrioAg 00
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8:42a, 6/7/22
AG
My entrance was low 30's (nailed it) but I got out around $70 (doh!).

Sitting in a mix of Cash and Altria (which is recession and inflation resistant) - slightly up, which is great.

Haven't really seen anything I'm itching to buy. Did take some more MSFT when it dipped into the 150's.

This is all with a pretty small allocation I enjoy playing around with. I know the odds of me beating the market with picking companies and timing the market are not good long term.
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cptthunder
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In reply to Saltyag15 • 9:08a, 6/7/22
Saltyag15 said:
Idk what the hell I'd put the money in if I sold, but I bought XOM back in 2020. Avg cost $44.64. It eclipsed the $100 mark this morning, and approaching ATH. I still don't think O&G is going to be falling too hard anytime soon. Might just set a $95GTC stop on it and let it ride.
Im in a similar boat but Im going to let it ride
If you hear the thunder coming from the north dont get nervous that just Mr Johnsongrass dancing and chasing the wife around early in the morning as XOM broke $100
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to cptthunder • 9:11a, 6/7/22
cptthunder said:
Saltyag15 said:
Idk what the hell I'd put the money in if I sold, but I bought XOM back in 2020. Avg cost $44.64. It eclipsed the $100 mark this morning, and approaching ATH. I still don't think O&G is going to be falling too hard anytime soon. Might just set a $95GTC stop on it and let it ride.
Im in a similar boat but Im going to let it ride
If you hear the thunder coming from the north dont get nervous that just Mr Johnsongrass dancing and chasing the wife around early in the morning as XOM broke $100
...and sometimes she lets me catch her..
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 9:13a, 6/7/22
AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
cptthunder said:
Saltyag15 said:
Idk what the hell I'd put the money in if I sold, but I bought XOM back in 2020. Avg cost $44.64. It eclipsed the $100 mark this morning, and approaching ATH. I still don't think O&G is going to be falling too hard anytime soon. Might just set a $95GTC stop on it and let it ride.
Im in a similar boat but Im going to let it ride
If you hear the thunder coming from the north dont get nervous that just Mr Johnsongrass dancing and chasing the wife around early in the morning as XOM broke $100
...and sometimes she lets me catch her..
haha, love it. and call flow in it all morning! to $120, let's go!
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SF2004
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9:19a, 6/7/22
AG
The Target inventory news is hilarious this morning. Everyone acting like this is a big surprise that inventory is constrained and they are guiding for lower margins.

Like these market media types on cbnc etc are always surprised when the obvious comes out.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:22a, 6/7/22
BREwmaster said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
cptthunder said:
Saltyag15 said:
Idk what the hell I'd put the money in if I sold, but I bought XOM back in 2020. Avg cost $44.64. It eclipsed the $100 mark this morning, and approaching ATH. I still don't think O&G is going to be falling too hard anytime soon. Might just set a $95GTC stop on it and let it ride.
Im in a similar boat but Im going to let it ride
If you hear the thunder coming from the north dont get nervous that just Mr Johnsongrass dancing and chasing the wife around early in the morning as XOM broke $100
...and sometimes she lets me catch her..
haha, love it. and call flow in it all morning! to $120, let's go!
Right now, the only negative is the Windfall Tax and will XOM report a 40% or a 50% tax rate for 2Q to protect itself. The earnings announcement would be end of July. Congress is on vacation in July. When Congress returns in August I think they'll be focused on re-election and not a Windfall Tax. ...... I think it's full speed ahead for the rest of the calendar year. $120 by EOY, maybe.
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cptthunder
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9:22a, 6/7/22
$ADM looks like it about to pick a direction here really soon.
The 8/21/50 Daily EMAs are all stacked right on top of each other. A little worried about he high volume day from 5/31 that didnt have any follow through and actually dropped fairly hard the next day. Hopefully its just some profit taking as it went from $82 ---> $92 in 8 trading days
Anyone else have a take on it?


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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:30a, 6/7/22
AG
Peace folks!


You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:38a, 6/7/22
AG
And this is why I absolutely suck at day trading...

Grabbed some TQQQ on Friday close and then yesterday thinking it would bounce. (Above my already set limit buy.)

This morning I canceled the limit buy I had set last week because it went below it in premarket, and made a new one with a lower price.

Of course it didn't go that low so it didn't execute, and now I'm just about even on my other orders.

Had I just let my limit order do its thing in the first place I'd have a much nicer profit. Sigh.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to cptthunder • 9:40a, 6/7/22
I don't own ADM. I own BG. Was in Nebraska yesterday. Took some country roads back home. If mother nature doesn't start providing some heat in these neck of the woods, there will be a corn problem. It's got < 30 days to make "knee high by the 4th of July". Illinois, Indiana and Iowa may be in better shape, I don't know. Central Plains needs heat. Article over this past weekend talking about 1 million acres between SD and ND will not be planted (wet). There's still time, but from what I saw yesterday was a bit concerning.

If FJB still wants more ethanol in gas the15% blend should be okay from a Corn S&D standpoint. If FJB insists on higher than 15% ethanol to "fight" the high price at the pump and corn gets behind in growth/maturity - lookout! My desire to see gasoline at $10 per gallon will be achieved.
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irish pete ag06
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9:48a, 6/7/22
AG
Made mistake yesterday. Not an account blower thankfully. Bought AMZN calls waiting for a bounce. Had started a side gig doing some mapping work with my brother. Was gonna close them out before the day ended no matter what. Got so busy, next thing I know it's 3:08. I'm still in them this morning. Down big. Market still looking like it may wanna go, so I'm gonna hold onto them and sell on a pop to reduce my loss.

Not sure on % because of account yesterday but it was about 8-9% down.

And after the fact it's so obvious how dumb my decision making was. Just have to do better in the game.

Luckily my daily rate on my new side gig was bigger than my loss.
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Boy Named Sue
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In reply to Saltyag15 • 9:51a, 6/7/22
AG
Saltyag15 said:
Idk what the hell I'd put the money in if I sold, but I bought XOM back in 2020. Avg cost $44.64. It eclipsed the $100 mark this morning, and approaching ATH. I still don't think O&G is going to be falling too hard anytime soon. Might just set a $95GTC stop on it and let it ride.
My concern with oil is it'll fall hard and fast when it does. And I worry that gas prices above $4 will crater the whole economy eventually, sending everything into a spiral.

Question for the experts: don't refiners benefit if oil craters, making it a good hedge?
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cptthunder
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10:00a, 6/7/22
$ASO flipping the bird again to all the other retail crew. 4 quarterly beats in a row. I dont know if they will hold on to continued growth but I still think the overall market that they cater to is going to be a bit more sheltered to the continued tightening of spent dollars.
I feel like alot of parents are still going to get little Johhnny that new glove and cleats for select team and if people are not going to be traveling as much people still need to entertain kids at home with either sports/fishing/hunting which is much more up ASO lane
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Saltyag15
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In reply to cptthunder • 10:10a, 6/7/22
AG
They are definitely bucking the recent retail trend, that's for sure! Them and HD still going strong. I rike it.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to cptthunder • 10:13a, 6/7/22
cptthunder said:
$ASO flipping the bird again to all the other retail crew. 4 quarterly beats in a row. I dont know if they will hold on to continued growth but I still think the overall market that they cater to is going to be a bit more sheltered to the continued tightening of spent dollars.
I feel like alot of parents are still going to get little Johhnny that new glove and cleats for select team and if people are not going to be traveling as much people still need to entertain kids at home with either sports/fishing/hunting which is much more up ASO lane
I'm going with...there will be a lot of lifestyle changes, starting 60 days ago moving forward to the next 18 months or longer. Some real belt tightening.
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SF2004
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10:29a, 6/7/22
AG
Anyone taken a loss on a stock for the tax harvest so you can redeploy those funds into a better asset?

I am in $DKNG with a cost of $16.38. I have soured on the prospects of a gambling growth stock coming back during a looming recession.

I feel I could re-deploy those funds into a better company and get back my losses much sooner.

Or is this just dumb and I should just hold?
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Charismatic Megafauna
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10:46a, 6/7/22
AG
So what happens if ttd tests 40ish again? Is there anything redeeming in its chart right now?
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Spoony Love
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In reply to SF2004 • 10:48a, 6/7/22
AG
This is just my personal opinion but I would hold; isn't there something about gambling and vices seeing an increase during recessions?
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to SF2004 • 10:51a, 6/7/22
AG
Yes, I harvested all my ROKU losses and have been trading TQQQ with that. I've maintained a big chunk in cash and traded with a portion of it, and have made a nice bit of it back so far.

I considered putting it into ARKK but this thread was good enough to point out how dumb that move would've been.
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cptthunder
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 11:16a, 6/7/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I don't own ADM. I own BG. Was in Nebraska yesterday. Took some country roads back home. If mother nature doesn't start providing some heat in these neck of the woods, there will be a corn problem. It's got < 30 days to make "knee high by the 4th of July". Illinois, Indiana and Iowa may be in better shape, I don't know. Central Plains needs heat. Article over this past weekend talking about 1 million acres between SD and ND will not be planted (wet). There's still time, but from what I saw yesterday was a bit concerning.

If FJB still wants more ethanol in gas the15% blend should be okay from a Corn S&D standpoint. If FJB insists on higher than 15% ethanol to "fight" the high price at the pump and corn gets behind in growth/maturity - lookout! My desire to see gasoline at $10 per gallon will be achieved.
My central Texas(Temple to Caldwell) report (parents driving to and back from farm) said the corn is looking good still but there is some concern about the next two/three weeks if the heat continues with out any break with rain
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TubTub
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In reply to Saltyag15 • 11:34a, 6/7/22
Sold some O&G for SHOP, back to pre pandemic level and incoming 10-1 split.
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 12:13p, 6/7/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Peace folks!


I don't even want to know what your tax bill looks like every year.
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Philip J Fry
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12:26p, 6/7/22
AG
PED
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ProgN
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12:35p, 6/7/22
Put COUP on your watchlist. It's getting tight on the Bollies and setting up for a squeeze.

They reported earnings last night that weren't bad and neither was their guidance. We get a good 2-3 spike in the macros, this one is poised to really jump. CPI is Friday and if it comes in lower than last month, then that could be the catalyst for a nice rally in the macros. JMO
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Tumble Weed
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12:43p, 6/7/22
Added more Diamondback Energy, MRO, and OXY.

Top performer for me this year is OVV at 34%.

Hope that oil goes to $200 a barrel!
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cctexagMD
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In reply to cptthunder • 1:15p, 6/7/22
AG
cptthunder said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I don't own ADM. I own BG. Was in Nebraska yesterday. Took some country roads back home. If mother nature doesn't start providing some heat in these neck of the woods, there will be a corn problem. It's got < 30 days to make "knee high by the 4th of July". Illinois, Indiana and Iowa may be in better shape, I don't know. Central Plains needs heat. Article over this past weekend talking about 1 million acres between SD and ND will not be planted (wet). There's still time, but from what I saw yesterday was a bit concerning.

If FJB still wants more ethanol in gas the15% blend should be okay from a Corn S&D standpoint. If FJB insists on higher than 15% ethanol to "fight" the high price at the pump and corn gets behind in growth/maturity - lookout! My desire to see gasoline at $10 per gallon will be achieved.
My central Texas(Temple to Caldwell) report (parents driving to and back from farm) said the corn is looking good still but there is some concern about the next two/three weeks if the heat continues with out any break with rain
Down in Corpus we have a rain problem. Farmer I play tennis with is not too optimistic about his corn, even after recent rain. But then again, may be part of his regular mood.
"I wanna go home with the Armadillo."- Gary P. Nunn
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to Tumble Weed • 1:19p, 6/7/22
Tumble Weed said:
Added more Diamondback Energy, MRO, and OXY.

Top performer for me this year is OVV at 34%.

Hope that oil goes to $200 a barrel!
We will go into a deep recession before oil hits $200/barrel. I think $150 is the top before energy costs cripple the economy and demand.
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wanderer
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In reply to cctexagMD • 1:24p, 6/7/22
Quote:
Down in Corpus we have a rain problem. Farmer I play tennis with is not too optimistic about his corn, even after recent rain. But then again, may be part of his regular mood.
That's an interesting venn diagram....

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to cctexagMD • 1:31p, 6/7/22
I'll bet he will do fine. If his corn is in Corpus area, it should be in grain fill stage by now and "rain makes grain". Side note: Had a classmate from Robstown, farmer, and pretty good tennis player as I recall. If he is early 60's in age...might be the same guy.
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TubTub
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1:32p, 6/7/22
In line with $ASO, Victoria Secret ($VSCO) has a P/E of 5 looks cheap
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