I was just looking at crude. Holy sh it. Huge potential C&H setting up. I could see this, not in a straight line, hitting 150.

We could get a parabolic move in the next couple weeks as well. I'd look for a push past $130

Cramer used to be right most of the time. He may be right again one day soon.

Equities Rebound As China Reopens... CPI Loom... Could ECB Be Live Meeting?

Equities are rebounding nicely, making back more than half their Friday losses... China signaled overnight that they are easing curbs... And resolving the Didi situation... Both have lead to a nice rebound in global equities where volumes are somewhat muted for Whit Monday. Treasuries are lower with the curve marginally flatter... Equities ground higher all through the overnight session, but spiked around 4 am... As China relaxed restrictions, we have seen some significant jumps in commodities, with Natural gas and wheat up 5% before backing off marginally...

This is the first full week in three with the Fed in black out period... Lots of analysis as to what they will do and how they will do it... For now both June and July are locked in at 50 basis increases without major surprises... And September is 83% of the way there... We do not need to rehash all the Fed speeches and positioning last week... We expect the Fed to move 50 a week from Wednesday... But we disagree with many as to how the economy and economic numbers will look going into the September meeting...as for QT, we will see the first of that next week in the treasury auctions, where the Fed will not reinvest about 10 billion of treasuries...

Here are our views for the week... The two big differences from what we see in the press and on the financial shows is that we think the US economy is slowing down but not going into recession, and while inflation has peaked, it will be sticky going lower... We expect to see better numbers for CPI on Friday, but they still will be very high... We also agree with Jan Hatzius of GS, who sent us ,and the rest of the world, his thoughts last night, where GS does not see a recession and still has a base case of a soft landing....

Employment report Friday was stronger than most expected, but still shows a slowing in employment... One of the mistakes many make is not realizing that employment is very much a backward looking number,, and it is clearly slowing... We have reviewed many announcements from companies that are reducing or eliminating projects and cutting back hiring... We have also seen firings being announced for many technology companies... We watched Rick Rieder interviewed on BB Friday, where in his most recent strategy meeting, he reviewed all the announcements of reduced hiring, projects being cut back, and firings... And that the employment number we saw on Friday will be one of the best numbers we will see over the next 4 months... He went on to say that he would not be surprised to see non farm go to a negative number in the near future... Economy is slowing down... He also does not see a recession... Although Larry Summers believes a recession will happen next year...

Inflation has peaked...but again it will be sticky... We watched Bob Michele of JPM asset management and Jim Bianco in an interview the Jon Ferro of BB Friday... While they both agreed that inflation has peaked, they had different beliefs as to where inflation will be at the end of the year... Bianco was at 5.5 and Michele at 4.5%... Bianco sees Fed funds peaking closer to 3.5-4%, while Michele is closer to 3%... We can live with that... While we respect Bianco as he is a very smart market strategist, Michele is investing real money... And both Blackrock's Rieder and JPM's Michele are buying now, investing in credit as their views are that credit got too cheap... More that believe in no recession... Michele believes that the allocations at the end of this month, will be the BIGGEST REBALANCING EVER FOR QUARTER END WHERE CASH WILL BE MOVED INTO EQUITIES AND CREDIT...that got our attention.


Credit... There have been massive purchases in HYG calls in the last week, where about 250,000 calls have been bought on the HYG 7/15/22 80 strike price... This could cause a massive short covering in the HYG fund.... Just be aware... Could be some real fireworks.

Positions across risk products remain with Hedge funds short many areas... Sentiment is some of the worst we have seen... Many bearish equity strategists think equities are going lower, rates are going higher, and credit will widen again,.. Many are predicting that the Fed will over tighten as they are afraid of their credibility if they make a mistake on inflation like they did last year... We don't look back as it does no good...we try to look forward for direction and making money...

Credit...we expect another 30 billion of new issuance from the IG space this week...demand remains strong and many are putting money to work... One anomaly we have seen is that corporate bond spreads are outperforming CDS spreads. The BB corporate bond spread dropped from 134 to 131 last week..LQD saw its spread drop fro 168 to 165..CDX which is more tied to the equity market went from 79 to 82... Remember credit products are bought by institutional accounts based on their flows...CDX is more a hedge fund product to position for trends.

ECB.. Could Thursday be a "live" meeting...inflation in the EU is off the charts and they are so far behind that their benchmark is still negative... There is no justification for negative interest rates when inflation is so high and the rate structure for Europe showing over 1% 10 years and 2 year Bunds at .64... The ECB needs to get with the program...

Sure glad I re-entered TQQQ near the close on Friday. Leggo!!!!

OK, I'm going to try this system I posted about.

Long $AAL at 16.53. Stop loss $16.09. I only bought 300 shares, for context. I'm risking $150 or so on this experiment. I want to take some profits at $17.2

Experiment 2:

Buying 5 TSLA shares at $718, stop $701.

I didn't realize how much I missed these until I didn't have them for a while!!

Thank you, kind sir.

AMZN trading for 15 mins post split and is trading a million shares a minute.

More buyers = upward price pressure.

Take note on GOOGL.

Killin Me Smalls said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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$AAL stopped

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I'm not seeing anything?

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we all know 30k is a whale, but him getting stopped out of a position probably isn't going to make news

AMZN flow getting lit up