irish pete ag06 said:

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Was up 2% this morning before 9am

Then broke rules
Follow traded someone on Twitter on LUV puts.
Then continued to try and trade to make up for it.
Was trying to over night a put but was out of settled funds
#planktonaccountproblems

Everything besides the LUV puts was my usual... QQQ both directions

-3.12% on the day. If I hadn't follow traded would have been -0.4%

If I had just not traded anymore once I hit a couple nice trades, would have been +2%. Overtrading is for the birds.

Really trashy day but at least no blow up.

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My own postmortem evaluation based upon your post.

1) You've made rules for yourself because of past mistakes to guard against days like this. You violated your own rules that were created because of past experiences. That means you went from trading to gambling today.

2) How long have you followed LUV? When is their next earnings date and projection? What does their chart look like when applying your preferred indicators? If you can answer all those, then disregard this. If you can't, then you gambled your money on a tweet.

3) NEVER EVER, try to come up and "get it back" on the next trade. You're trading on emotion, not discipline, gambling. Next time you have that urge, we all do, then paper trade the exact opposite and I'd bet money your paper trades win more times than your aggressive "making it all back" trades.

I'm not trying to beat you up. You're a good trader and learning, everyone learns something with every trade regardless of experience. I just don't like people I respect losing money by committing mistakes that they knew they've committed before.

QQQ with a bullish engulfing candle. If it can get continuation tomorrow then I may be a believer in this rally

ProgN said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

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Was up 2% this morning before 9am

Then broke rules
Follow traded someone on Twitter on LUV puts.
Then continued to try and trade to make up for it.
Was trying to over night a put but was out of settled funds
#planktonaccountproblems

Everything besides the LUV puts was my usual... QQQ both directions

-3.12% on the day. If I hadn't follow traded would have been -0.4%

If I had just not traded anymore once I hit a couple nice trades, would have been +2%. Overtrading is for the birds.

Really trashy day but at least no blow up.

---

My own postmortem evaluation based upon your post.

1) You've made rules for yourself because of past mistakes to guard against days like this. You violated your own rules that were created because of past experiences. That means you went from trading to gambling today.

2) How long have you followed LUV? When is their next earnings date and projection? What does their chart look like when applying your preferred indicators? If you can answer all those, then disregard this. If you can't, then you gambled your money on a tweet.

3) NEVER EVER, try to come up and "get it back" on the next trade. You're trading on emotion, not discipline, gambling. Next time you have that urge, we all do, then paper trade the exact opposite and I'd bet money your paper trades win more times than your aggressive "making it all back" trades.

I'm not trying to beat you up. You're a good trader and learning, everyone learns something with every trade regardless of experience. I just don't like people I respect losing money by committing mistakes that they knew they've committed before.

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Man, I love the feedback. Thank you. Bad thing is, postmortem I also knew all those things. Yet did them anyway. So yes I slid back into going degenerate today. The positive was I didn't go full degenerate so that's a plus!

I'm on cloud 9 that you called me a "good trader."

irish pete ag06 said:

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Man, I love the feedback. Thank you. Bad thing is, postmortem I also knew all those things. Yet did them anyway. So yes I slid back into going degenerate today. The positive was I didn't go full degenerate so that's a plus!

I'm on cloud 9 that you called me a "good trader."

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Not going full degenerate proves that you've learned from past mistakes but we both know you did some **** today that you knew in the back of head that you shouldn't do before you confirmed your trade. Tell me I'm FOS?
No worries, everyone has done it and those that say they haven't are lying, like saying you didn't jackoff in 8th grade.

You are a good trader and have come a long way by your posts in here, but keep learning. You'll never win every trade, no one does. Stay committed to your discipline, it's very hard we all know, Shoot for 70%+ winning trades, cut losses early that violate your reason for buying it keeping losses small. This will help you so much in the future more than you know.

I've posted before that I've blown up my account 7+ times in the beginning. It sucks and I don't want anyone in here to go through that.

ProgN said:

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Looks like you'll be POTD, congrats brother.

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Forum 16 giveth and taketh

The most simple way to day trade is to be bullish biased above opening price and below resistance, and conversely bearish biased below opening price and above support.

Don't overcomplicate it.

Irish - everyone breaks their rules. The trick is to do it less often and to remind yourself.

Try waiting five minutes before putting on an impulse trade. Make yourself get up and walk around after a loss (or a big win).

What I do is start really small to get a feel for the market and then once I have that, I'll increase position size with setups.

Same. I'm still losing money often and holding on to trades to long. I keep making dumb mistakes but figure it's the only way to learn and maybe one day be able to bank $3K a day like 30K.

Biggest mistakes I have been making lately is not stopping for the day when I have already had a nice trade. I get too cocky/confident and try to repeat it again and usually end up giving all or some of what I made back.

Simple rules:

1) ask yourself if the setup is still valid. If it's invalid, exit.
2) if position size makes you nervous, get out and scale to a position size that doesn't make you nervous. Try playing one contract. You should play 100 and 1 the same way.
3) you can't lose 3% if you're risking 3% with a 50% stop.

Crwd smashed earnings again, pulling back premarket. Don't know if that's a friday lotto opp or if the whole market is going to crush lotto calls today. Snuck up on me so i didn't play it except the shares i already have.

Be back with more this weekend boys. Been working on stories while enjoying some islands and beaches.



Tesla To Fire 10% of Staff... Equities Lower....EMPLOYMENT REPORT COULD BE UGLY

Equity markets were not doing much overnight until 3.20 am when the Reuters story that Tesla will fire 10% of their employees and freeze hiring came out...Reuters also wrote that Musk is preparing for a major slowdown in the economy...That sent equities down to where we are now... Down about 31 points and currently down 35 as we write... The question is whether this is an omen to today's employment report... The BB expectation has been reduced to 318,000, with a range of 220,000 to 450,000... The whisper number is 301,000... The ADP number yesterday was awful, less than 50% of the expectation, with revisions lower... BB put out a story overnight that small companies have lost almost 300,000 jobs in the last few months... And the White House Press secretary made comments setting up for a worse than expected number... Biden speaks at 10.30... We have always been skeptical as to whether the WH knows the number before hand... But the writing is on the wall as to a slowdown, question is whether those numbers show up today or later in the year... Fed reaction should be modest as 50 basis seems to be locked in stone for the next two months... Brainard confirmed that yesterday...as did most of the Fed speak this week... They are reading from the same page.

When will bad news be good news?.. The Fed wants the economy to be slower.. They want the number of jobs available to potential employees to head lower... The question is when those numbers start to kick in, will the markets start to be bullish that the Fed will slow down their aggressive posture?... We probably need to see significantly lower inflation... Kiss 2% good bye for now, but 4% may get a boost... Next week we get CPI, which looks to be lower, but still sticky... Not coming down fast enough.

Fed speak ends today as the Fed goes into their blackout period until the Fed announcement June 15... Brainard is the only one scheduled to speak today and the topic does not look market oriented... Sara Eisen interviewed Brainard yesterday so we know where she stands... We would not be surprised to see another Fed governor interview pop up... They are good for TV ratings...

Rates... Not much movement overnight... Bond markets are marginally lower... 10 year is hovering around our 2.92 area.. London and China are closed... We see support at 3.01 for the 10 year... Citi made some comments this morning that if the 10 year can break 3.25% it could go to a 4 handle... A little too premature for us, especially with the economy slowing in pockets and gas prices hovering around 5 bucks... But we spent some time in a local car dealership this week... A small one with almost no inventory, but they were able to sell 85 new cars last month, all were sold and delivered as they came off the trailers... So business is still getting done... We went into the show room, there are no longer cars in the showroom as they have made it all offices since we were there earlier this year.

Four borrowers came to market yesterday with 3 billion.. Order books were 2.9x and new issue concessions about 14 basis... This brings the weeks today to 30 billion... There is a big Oracle benchmark deal in the wings, but it will probably come out in the middle of the refunding next week... We saw that our colleague Harley Bassman of Simplify Asset Management put out that Mortgage Bonds are "Crazy Cheap"...

Mortgage Bonds Are 'Crazy Cheap,' Rates Pioneer Bassman Says

Our desk tends to agree even though the Fed is starting to unwind their mortgage portfolio... It looks to us that the Fed will only allow run offs this year and may not sell next year depending on the circumstances...mortgage spreads have almost doubled this year from 68 on January 3 to 114 now... 120 earlier in the week...

Markets to remain choppy... Based on the charts the bear market rally is close to running out of steam... But we could hang on until the Fed meeting... But look for bad news to start to be better for the markets as it will undercut the Fed hawkishness... We think Bostic will be proven correct... Have a great weekend.