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FJ43
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4:36p, 6/1/22

Drive by charting from a phone and Trading View. Removed most SRs and tried to clean up but will this evening.

We broke out of the pinch from posting last week.
See where consolidation is occurring in the green area.
Notice the blue 50EMA at the first yellow arrow above.
Notice the downtrend and uptrend lines.
We ended up holding the 409.50ish area.
I don't particularly like todays candle but still in the 'zone'

At this point we break this weeks highs and basically we are testing the 50EMA for first time in a while. Mid April

Which way are we going?




Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to texagbeliever • 4:47p, 6/1/22
texagbeliever said:
Philip J Fry said:
I'm sorry. Can someone help explain to me how taxing a corporation is going to help reduce the cost of their product?

Explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old.
This will incentivize the oil companies to expand more capital to get gas out of the ground. By increasing their capital costs they can effectively push profits out to future years when republicans take back the office and repeal this policy. This will be a huge boom for O&G companies.

But the reason democrats are doing it is because Oil bad and needs to be punished.

Majors might increase their spend to lower profits, but they might put more focus internationally if the US doesn't have beneficial taxation terms. Small and medium operators will continue to get squeezed more and more for access to capital. Why would a bank loan you money if there's a bill that would massively reduce your ability to repay even if things go well? Capital is already harder to come by than it should. This bill continues the assault on smaller members of the domestic oil industry.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to XXXVII • 4:48p, 6/1/22
XXXVII said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
Dump into close confirmed. IMO this makes that spinning top relevant and I think we are likely to reverse and head back down from here. That could all change tomorrow, but I'm more short term bearish today.


Two conflicting opinions.



Who should I believe?

Good grief, don't take my sentiment over OA!
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 5:47p, 6/1/22
ProgN said:
Triple_Bagger said:
XXXVII said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
Dump into close confirmed. IMO this makes that spinning top relevant and I think we are likely to reverse and head back down from here. That could all change tomorrow, but I'm more short term bearish today.


Two conflicting opinions.



Who should I believe?
Let FJ be the tie breaker


J/K FJ, love you bro.
That's me!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Fightin2010
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5:59p, 6/1/22
AG
Haven't frequented this thread since 2020 when everyone was a day trader. What happened to OA posting on Texags?
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ProgN
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In reply to Fightin2010 • 6:00p, 6/1/22
He pops in from time to time but he's building his Twitter following.
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bmoochie
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:20p, 6/1/22
AG
Yes!! Thank you for this. I Have taken a long break since I blew things up so taking everything I've learned and slowly applying things and entered $414 puts this morning. Got lucky on the timing and it tanked. Put trailing stop and out the door with a nice little profit and then QUIT for the day. That last part is new for me. Would always push for more after a good trade.
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FJ43
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In reply to bmoochie • 6:54p, 6/1/22
bmoochie said:
Yes!! Thank you for this. I Have taken a long break since I blew things up so taking everything I've learned and slowly applying things and entered $414 puts this morning. Got lucky on the timing and it tanked. Put trailing stop and out the door with a nice little profit and then QUIT for the day. That last part is new for me. Would always push for more after a good trade.


Congrats on the discipline. IMO that's the hardest part of trading. It's not finding setups or identifying things on charts but the mental discipline to cut losses quick, take profits along the way and not trade for the sake of trading.

Really glad to hear this.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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6:59p, 6/1/22

Ok let a look left a bit.

Notice back in April 21-June 21 where some consolidation occurred. We are in that zone now pegged between SRs.

The shorter term downtrend is something I would be watching.

The really short uptrend line and Id pay attention to and below the mean or about 406.80ish. Lose that and I suspect we have new downtrend in store.

Notice the volume profile.

Notice the volume trends.

IF…big IF we have a push up I'll probably be looking to go short around 423-4 range. Puts out a few months on top of short term trades.





Just my redneck hillbilly 2 cents.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Red Red Wine
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 7:00p, 6/1/22
AG
Valero, PBF, P66 , and Marathon (and Holly and Delek) are all independent refining companies so fuel prices will float on oil and then product demand. Both are contributing to high pump prices (refineries shut down, oil up, post Covid demand way up are all driving prices up.).

Shell, BP, Chevron, and XOM are the only integrated majors and BP/Shell don't have many refining assets left here in the US. XOM has some large complexes between Baytown, Beaumont, and Baton Rouge. Chevron has some decent refining assets.

Oil companies are NOT drilling ahead of demand to drop prices because Biden's admin had been way too hostile and it makes zero sense to invest billions in developing a new oil field with Dems in charge. So yes, Oil Companies are adding to the oil price problem, but this all goes back to the Dems in charge.

Which I think is what you were saying?
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:13p, 6/1/22
I like your analysis. May be a good time to sell credit spreads.

Am gonna watch how price trades over next day or so but could sell bull put spreads like 390/400 since those have been pretty good levels over the past month or so. Expiry before next FOMC.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Red Red Wine • 7:22p, 6/1/22
AG
Pretty much
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Next Year Is Our Year
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In reply to texagbeliever • 7:31p, 6/1/22
Capital costs are not factored into income/profit calculations so if this tax is strictly on profit then there will be less money available for drilling/capital spend. Companies could however increase G&A/bonuses to decrease profits
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Ragoo
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In reply to Red Red Wine • 7:45p, 6/1/22
AG
Most US refiners are independent.

Chevron, Exxon, CRC are really all that is left. Does BP still own Toledo?
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ProgN
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7:55p, 6/1/22
BSG, Farmer is on vacation with his wife and wanted me to post this for him because he said you requested.




He said he hopes we're all printing more money than JPow and looks forward to coming back to the clubhouse.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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7:57p, 6/1/22
Tell him thanks. Nice pics for sure! We decided against J Hole. $7500 for 5 plane tickets over a long weekend was just not palatable.

We instead pulled for San Diego. Also are gonna do a long weekend at Hyatt hill country.
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XXXVII
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:03p, 6/1/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Tell him thanks. Nice pics for sure! We decided against J Hole. $7500 for 5 plane tickets over a long weekend was just not palatable.

We instead pulled for San Diego. Also are gonna do a long weekend at Hyatt hill country.


$1500 per ticket for a domestic flight? JFC.
DeSantis 2024

FJB, FJB, FJB, etc
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FJ43
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In reply to ProgN • 8:04p, 6/1/22
Great pics! Never been there myself but have always wanted to go. Thanks for posting those for him.

Oh…have to love the hat!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:16p, 6/1/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Tell him thanks. Nice pics for sure! We decided against J Hole. $7500 for 5 plane tickets over a long weekend was just not palatable.

We instead pulled for San Diego. Also are gonna do a long weekend at Hyatt hill country.
I will and it's good you're getting away.

Before MTN_Guide died unexpectedly he recommended some places that my son (7) would enjoy, especially because he loves rocks. I'm planning to take him to Zion National Park in the fall, and based off the pictures, he was right, Michael will love it.

https://www.nps.gov/zion/index.htm
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ProgN
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:17p, 6/1/22
FJ43 said:
Great pics! Never been there myself but have always wanted to go. Thanks for posting those for him.

Oh…have to love the hat!
I had zero doubt that you would.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to XXXVII • 8:17p, 6/1/22
Exactly. Thursday to Sunday flight from DFW to Idaho Falls was going for around $1500. With a 2 yr old in tow, forget it. It would not be worth it.

Apparently J Hole airport closed through June not sure why. I think renovations or something.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:25p, 6/1/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Exactly. Thursday to Sunday flight from DFW to Idaho Falls was going for around $1500. With a 2 yr old in tow, forget it. It would not be worth it.

Apparently J Hole airport closed through June not sure why. I think renovations or something.


Uppity elitist doctors and their carbon footprint and ***** This is how we plebes roll for vacations.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 8:27p, 6/1/22
I think you're almost obligated to go to Grand Canyon. Have been a few times….first around 3-4 yrs old and again around 10 or so.

It's breathtaking. Check it on Oculus if u want. I use the Wander app and it has been single-handedly worth getting the VR headset. 10/10 recommend!!
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 8:27p, 6/1/22
Donner Party Crossing. Good times.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:28p, 6/1/22
Thanks, will do.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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8:29p, 6/1/22
Speaking of, anyone see Naked Gun 33 1/3?

There's a nice joke in there about Donner Party Crossing and one woman's battle against anorexia or something. Line takes place when they are at movie awards. Spot on.
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:34p, 6/1/22
I haven't seen that in years, so I can't remember right now.

Speaking of movies though, isn't it crazy the movie PCU from the 90's has become reality today? That was a funny movie.
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spud1910
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In reply to ProgN • 9:00p, 6/1/22
AG
ProgN said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Tell him thanks. Nice pics for sure! We decided against J Hole. $7500 for 5 plane tickets over a long weekend was just not palatable.

We instead pulled for San Diego. Also are gonna do a long weekend at Hyatt hill country.
I will and it's good you're getting away.

Before MTN_Guide died unexpectedly he recommended some places that my son (7) would enjoy, especially because he loves rocks. I'm planning to take him to Zion National Park in the fall, and based off the pictures, he was right, Michael will love it.

https://www.nps.gov/zion/index.htm
Zion is definitely worth a trip.
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irish pete ag06
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9:30p, 6/1/22
AG
QYLD
RYLD
XYLD
Would this be a good time to add to long term or a Roth?

What are the general thoughts on these? Just discovered them.

Edit, doing more research and found this guy… full ported QYLD on margin and using dividend to pay interest…

https://www.reddit.com/r/qyldgang/comments/pfavry/the_madman_chronicles_100_margin_qyld_month_1/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Here's the most recent update…
https://www.reddit.com/r/qyldgang/comments/v2irm5/the_madman_chronicles_100_margin_qyld_q2_2022/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Wow
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Philip J Fry
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10:13p, 6/1/22
AG
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Philip J Fry
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11:19p, 6/1/22
AG


Also a bit of charting. Seems like tomorrow will tell us if the bear market rally continues or not. I was hoping we'd tip through the resistance today, but with this sentiment, I'm guess we drop hard again soon.
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M4 Benelli
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In reply to ProgN • 3:42a, 6/2/22
ProgN said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Tell him thanks. Nice pics for sure! We decided against J Hole. $7500 for 5 plane tickets over a long weekend was just not palatable.

We instead pulled for San Diego. Also are gonna do a long weekend at Hyatt hill country.
I will and it's good you're getting away.

Before MTN_Guide died unexpectedly he recommended some places that my son (7) would enjoy, especially because he loves rocks. I'm planning to take him to Zion National Park in the fall, and based off the pictures, he was right, Michael will love it.

https://www.nps.gov/zion/index.htm

Zion slays bro, make sure to hike the Narrows!
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FJ43
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5:27a, 6/2/22
Mornun!

Mixed around the horn.

US green
EU mixed
Asia mixed

VIX slightly lower

Interesting day ahead. SPY below 406.80ish and down begins would be my guess. Above 416.32 or especially 417.80(50EMA) and I'll look for 420,423,429ish. I'll enter puts out a ways light at 423 range then add more at 429ish.

FWIW I bought 420c on the 406.80ish back test of the 21EMA/ATR mean yesterday. Lotto size. .44 average

Trade wisely gents!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FJ43
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6:00a, 6/2/22
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:09a, 6/2/22
New multibillion dollar contract with graphite mining company
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