Jet Black said:
What is the bet for tomorrow? Up? Down? Asteroid crushes wall st?
I'd like XOM starting with an 87 number or lower.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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I'd like XOM starting with an 87 number or lower.
You may be right on direction, who knows. But the market has certainly priced in many rate hikes.
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As someone who was recently in the furniture market - I must say Restoration Hardware has some crazy ass prices for their furniture. I would love the stuff but the price is just beyond realistic for our budget and I'd like to believe we are solid middle class kind of folks. I can only imagine how it effects others up the line.Dan Scott said:
Restoration Hardware the last few years had a PE around 25. Today it's 12 PE. Berkshire increased his stake by 20% in Q1 and owns over 10% and the company has a buyback program. Earnings in a couple weeks. Stock back to pre-pandemic high.
I'm going to visit a RH this weekend to get a feel for if rich people not buying or if they have inventory issues. With earnings in a couple weeks and sentiment so negative this can surprise.
Blunt question to anyone: So if we are in or heading into stagflation for a few years, would you sellout of the markets completely now…personal, 401k and all?
If next report on unemployment numbers come in ugly this probably confirms it.
If next report on unemployment numbers come in ugly this probably confirms it.
Worst decision to make. Unless your timeline is short (as in less than 10 years), there's no reason to not continue investing and taking advantage of the cheaper stock prices.
Now? No, probably not. You're already 18% off high. You've already taken a good amount of the pain.
The true low point of the trough is a guess and everyone has one. Personally I think the reasonable range (95% probability) for it is anywhere between -25% to -50%, but no matter what it is these things don't atay at the bottom very long. It's incredibly difficult to try to rifle the bottom.
There is usually a retrace up from the bottom before a long, painful period of flat or slow growth. By rising it this far down already, I think I'd just ride the volatility from here - and if it were me I'd feel pretty good that we won't be below 3900 in a few years.
If you try to get out now (I.e. perfectly time the bottom) you run the serious risk that this whole drop and retrace is more shallow than you're thinking, and you miss out earning back some of the 18% you've lost.
I've got some dollars that need to go in and I'm phasing them in between 3900 and 3550. Of I get them in and it keeps going lower I am perfectly prepared to ignore that fact.
The true low point of the trough is a guess and everyone has one. Personally I think the reasonable range (95% probability) for it is anywhere between -25% to -50%, but no matter what it is these things don't atay at the bottom very long. It's incredibly difficult to try to rifle the bottom.
There is usually a retrace up from the bottom before a long, painful period of flat or slow growth. By rising it this far down already, I think I'd just ride the volatility from here - and if it were me I'd feel pretty good that we won't be below 3900 in a few years.
If you try to get out now (I.e. perfectly time the bottom) you run the serious risk that this whole drop and retrace is more shallow than you're thinking, and you miss out earning back some of the 18% you've lost.
I've got some dollars that need to go in and I'm phasing them in between 3900 and 3550. Of I get them in and it keeps going lower I am perfectly prepared to ignore that fact.
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I think the case for RH is that it's client base is wealthy enough to not be affected by economic downturns
"Even though he was teenager during the Great Depression of the 1930s, John F. Kennedy said in an interview with TIME that he 'didn't really learn about the depression until [he] read about it at Harvard.'"
"Even though he was teenager during the Great Depression of the 1930s, John F. Kennedy said in an interview with TIME that he 'didn't really learn about the depression until [he] read about it at Harvard.'"
ProgN said:XXXVII said:BlueTaze said:
CEI small cap energy play either going to crash or skyrocket on Friday when delinquent SEC filings come due.
Old Zack Morris pump and dump trying to catch a 2nd wind....for anyone looking to lotto or spread trade.I saw where you posted this on the "Market BLEEDING today" thread on F16 but I glad that you've found our group.Quote:
Doesn't that defeat the purpose of LSI by doing three spaced out entries?
Also, why are you so sure that October is best?
1) Don't take financial advice from "Retired FBI Agent" because he's a complete dumbass with his smarmy investing advice. He doesn't know that October is the time to buy and his "buy and hold forever" always outperforms actively managing your account couldn't be any more wrong. That strategy has decimated investors in 2020 and again right now.
2) This is a trading thread, but I advise you don't attempt to trade, but I encourage you to ask questions because the amount of experience that we all share will benefit you.
That said, the amount of horrid investing advice on that thread, presented with bravado, was ******ed. I need a shower after reading through that bs. I'd bet serious money on longtime lurkers on this thread against the majority of posters on that thread would give you better guidance. Anyway, welcome to the board, we're all here to help and want the same goal.
Thanks, I was not going to follow his advice anyway because it was setting off my BS meter. My main concern is what's the least risky thing I can do right now with a huge lump of 401k rollover money that's not yet invested. Seems like we're in for more pain in the market going forward.
Right now my rollover money is under "credits" to my account and hasn't gone into the settlement fund yet. I guess the check is still processing.
Is it considered as being in a "100% cash position" once it's in the settlement fund?
If I want to wait things out a little, should I go into 100% into a bond ETF?
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I would see what redler does, or oa1. Afaik, redler hasn't deployed another tranche of "blood in the streets" money since the ukraine conflict started. I'd be surprised if he doesnt do it with the next leg down
Yes that is 100% cash once settled.
I would personally not do 100% bond ETF blindly..stocks aren't the only thing losing value this year. Might as well keep it in cash if you want 100% bonds.* You have posted a lot about trying to time this transfer investment, but I don't know if anyone has directly asked or knows what your timeline is? That dictates a lot of the response.
25? Throw it all in stocks and don't look back, don't worry about timing it at all. If you think you can time it, throw in 1/4 to 1/2 when you think it's at a low and DCA the rest depending on the week to week movement and overall trend. 55? Maybe do something different*.
I think personally you're thinking about it too much. If you're really worried about being wrong one way or the other just hedge and split the difference on your moves.*
*my extremely simple amateur opinions, I am not a pro
I would personally not do 100% bond ETF blindly..stocks aren't the only thing losing value this year. Might as well keep it in cash if you want 100% bonds.* You have posted a lot about trying to time this transfer investment, but I don't know if anyone has directly asked or knows what your timeline is? That dictates a lot of the response.
25? Throw it all in stocks and don't look back, don't worry about timing it at all. If you think you can time it, throw in 1/4 to 1/2 when you think it's at a low and DCA the rest depending on the week to week movement and overall trend. 55? Maybe do something different*.
I think personally you're thinking about it too much. If you're really worried about being wrong one way or the other just hedge and split the difference on your moves.*
*my extremely simple amateur opinions, I am not a pro
GreasenUSA said:Jet Black said:
What is the bet for tomorrow? Up? Down? Asteroid crushes wall st?
The most recent two times that we've had breakdowns from the previous range (5/5 and 5/11), the day after the breakdowns have been gap downs that ended up red, with close ending very near the open.
Looking like a match again....
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boyz05 said:
Blunt question to anyone: So if we are in or heading into stagflation for a few years, would you sellout of the markets completely now…personal, 401k and all?
If next report on unemployment numbers come in ugly this probably confirms it.
The real question here is what happens to stock markets during stagflation, and how long could a period of stagflation last? Any of the professionals or market historians know?
Redler actually deployed 25% of his wife's "blood money" on May 9.Charismatic Megafauna said:
I would see what redler does, or oa1. Afaik, redler hasn't deployed another tranche of "blood in the streets" money since the ukraine conflict started. I'd be surprised if he doesnt do it with the next leg down
Mornun!
Pretty much red around the horn in US - EU & Asia
Levels on SPY I am watching:
Let's see where we get some sort of bounce today. With OPEX tomorrow we will pin somewhere IMO.
The two types of traders these days....
Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
I always wanted to be Ace!FJ43 said:
.
this may be more hope than TA, but....double bottom?
looks that way zoomed in on that time scale, but not so much when you look at it other ways.
mancini's next level up is 3810, since we don't seem to be moving up off of 3880-3890 zone.
mancini's next level up is 3810, since we don't seem to be moving up off of 3880-3890 zone.
Gotta hit up the RH outlet bra. Everything is minimum 35% off and a lot of the stuff we find in there is still actively listed on their website for full price.Red Pear DFW Luke said:As someone who was recently in the furniture market - I must say Restoration Hardware has some crazy ass prices for their furniture. I would love the stuff but the price is just beyond realistic for our budget and I'd like to believe we are solid middle class kind of folks. I can only imagine how it effects others up the line.Dan Scott said:
Restoration Hardware the last few years had a PE around 25. Today it's 12 PE. Berkshire increased his stake by 20% in Q1 and owns over 10% and the company has a buyback program. Earnings in a couple weeks. Stock back to pre-pandemic high.
I'm going to visit a RH this weekend to get a feel for if rich people not buying or if they have inventory issues. With earnings in a couple weeks and sentiment so negative this can surprise.
Yesterday, I was looking for 3945 then 3885 in #ES_F and 3885 clipped overnight. *Every* relief bounce since March 29 has seen a new low, and this one is close
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) May 19, 2022
Plan today: 3905, 3925 now 1st resistances. Unless 3925 can clear (squeeze to 3945, 4015), looking for new low to 3815 https://t.co/Nhr1offfDJ
Unfortunately I think we blow through this today.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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wanderer said:
this may be more hope than TA, but....double bottom?
It could be. OPEX week and the SPY put volume is large, so nothing would surprise me. At the very least I think OPEX week gives us a better chance at not having any crazy tanking today.
LOAD THE BOAT!Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:Jet Black said:
What is the bet for tomorrow? Up? Down? Asteroid crushes wall st?
I'd like XOM starting with an 87 number or lower.
I like to trade QQQ, so I'm going to see if today plays out a similar pattern to the day after the last two breakdowns (5/6 and 5/12)McInnis 03 said:GreasenUSA said:Jet Black said:
What is the bet for tomorrow? Up? Down? Asteroid crushes wall st?
The most recent two times that we've had breakdowns from the previous range (5/5 and 5/11), the day after the breakdowns have been gap downs that ended up red, with close ending very near the open.
Looking like a match again....
We saw an initial dip, then a climb for 1-2 hours to the area of the previous end of day resistance.
Going to watch price action, but will consider shorting some QQQ in the 292-293 area today if we get there.
Hi friend. I'm nearly all QQQ myself!GreasenUSA said:I like to trade QQQ, so I'm going to see if today plays out a similar pattern to the day after the last two breakdowns (5/6 and 5/12)McInnis 03 said:GreasenUSA said:Jet Black said:
What is the bet for tomorrow? Up? Down? Asteroid crushes wall st?
The most recent two times that we've had breakdowns from the previous range (5/5 and 5/11), the day after the breakdowns have been gap downs that ended up red, with close ending very near the open.
Looking like a match again....
We saw an initial dip for about 10 minutes, then a climb for 1-2 hours to the area of the previous end of day resistance.
Going to watch price action, but will considering shorting some QQQ in the 292-293 area today if we get there.
I remember both days vividly. Kicked myself for not shorting. Thanks for the reminder.
I trade the Qs as well, but mostly SPX here.
I will short on loss of lows and break of the H&S pattern to the downside. It seems very low probability to short down here.
I will short on loss of lows and break of the H&S pattern to the downside. It seems very low probability to short down here.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Like he mentioned above... both days after the major selloff days it tapped the 8 EMA on the 30 minute chart then it was sold again.
I'm gonna wait and see if we get there early and see how it handles this.
I'm gonna wait and see if we get there early and see how it handles this.
I just find it much easier to get into a rhythm with QQQ than SPY.irish pete ag06 said:
Hi friend. I'm nearly all QQQ myself!
I remember both days vividly. Kicked myself for not shorting. Thanks for the reminder.
Public Service Announcement from OA
$SPY Look Yellow/Green Boxes showing attempted Bull support in correction mode. Red is Bulls losing that support and now searching for true major support. First stop was double bottom predictable bounce off May 8th. Lose that and $371 area becomes next attempt. Still need 200M pic.twitter.com/W0JrbnqRMt
— FREEDOM! (@oldarmy1) May 19, 2022
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Watch out for initial move headfake. This would be the biggest day for that to happen.
SPX and QQQ near the bottom of their channel and have a green candle so far. Calls may be the play early. I'm waiting a bit longer before going in though.
SPX and QQQ near the bottom of their channel and have a green candle so far. Calls may be the play early. I'm waiting a bit longer before going in though.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I bought TSLA 730C. This 8:40-8:45 candle will be telling, so I probably should have waited a bit more. Bold move Cotton.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:
I bought TSLA 730C. This 8:40-8:45 candle will be telling, so I probably should have waited a bit more. Bold move Cotton.
Stopped out. Should have waited. Now in 700P.
Look at AAPL that thing is returning back to its downtrend line from yesterday hard.
Those JPM puts I called out yesterday are up 25%.
$372 is my next level on SPY.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:Bob Knights Liver said:
I bought TSLA 730C. This 8:40-8:45 candle will be telling, so I probably should have waited a bit more. Bold move Cotton.
Stopped out. Should have waited. Now in 700P.
Out. I'm only down $200 from that initial move. Patience, Bob. Now we'll see if we play the range bound game or continue on down the SPX lower BB.
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