Choppy day today? Maybe end near Monday's open or make a late run as shorts or longs close?
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Last: 9 min ago by Heineken-Ashi
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I think we are all in for more pain. Monday relief rally to be dumped on with the inflation print being released.
Not sure, but the futures look like a continuation from yesterday with no catalyst to change the momentum.
The last 2 days in #ES_F saw top 10 biggest daily swings in 50 years, and NFP at 830am today means expect more of it. Resistance 4155-4165 yesterday & so far backtest held
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) May 6, 2022
Plan: As long 4165 keeps holding, 4055-65, 4020 = targets. 4165 clears, we run to 4215 gate to real upside https://t.co/FvfVUNIyCq
Seems like I imagine a lot of puts need to be burned and everyone is bearish… I can see a choppy small day that ends slightly green to just eat premium like crazy.
Jittery Markets Bracing For Another Ugly Day... Treasuries Bear Steepening
We know that six Fed governors are speaking today...we saw one report saying that might contradict Powell after the poor performance of the markets yesterday... Give us a break, does anyone really think the Fed governors are going to contradict the chair two days after they voted 10-0 in agreement... Look for the opposite, even Bullard the Bear should be in line... If not then why did he vote for 50?... Nonetheless markets are jittery and the employment number will probably be spun in a negative way... If the number is low they will say companies can't find workers... If it is high then they will say the economy is booming and the Fed is behind the curve to slow it down... We think we are getting close to a bottom... We would have like to call yesterday's move a capitulation, but we just can't get there,,, as low as we are we are still close to last Friday's S+P close...
Overnight treasuries got hit back to 3.09 10 years in Asian time and then rebounded in London time to 3.04... Only to get hit again as New York came in... Now back to 3.09.. For the record, we got to 3.10 yesterday in 10 years and 3.20 in long bonds... But you closed close to the 3.03 support in 10 years and below the 3.135 in long bonds... But if these levels break again, and we are above them currently, we can see 3.22 10 years and 3.40 ish long bonds... Curve is steepening as the macro hedge funds and other trend followers like CTA's are pushing the markets lower in futures... Real money will buy, but more slowly... The short base is massive and will be forced to cover... Lots of flatteners have been taken off, but the short base remains huge... Question is what is the catalyst for a treasury rally?... It won't be today's employment report... Maybe the CPI report next week.
Thursday saw more market panic than we have had throughout the current cycle... For the first time we saw elements of capitulation, especially in equities... But that moved to corporate spreads and treasuries as well... However, we do not see the catalyst for a reversal just yet. The S+P alone lost 1.3 trillion in value yesterday. Treasuries have gone through a bear market flush... And to quote a colleague, it is going through at Warp speed... Corporate spreads are heading to our next support levels of 100 in IG and 520 in HY, both measured via CDx...currently 85 and 471.
Merrill's Harnett was out this morning saying the bear run had more to go.. This is the worst 4 months of the year in equities since 1939... And many who have been in the markets for 20 years or less have never seen both treasury and equity bear markets simultaneously... And this with the dollar extremely strong...
We know that six Fed governors are speaking today...we saw one report saying that might contradict Powell after the poor performance of the markets yesterday... Give us a break, does anyone really think the Fed governors are going to contradict the chair two days after they voted 10-0 in agreement... Look for the opposite, even Bullard the Bear should be in line... If not then why did he vote for 50?... Nonetheless markets are jittery and the employment number will probably be spun in a negative way... If the number is low they will say companies can't find workers... If it is high then they will say the economy is booming and the Fed is behind the curve to slow it down... We think we are getting close to a bottom... We would have like to call yesterday's move a capitulation, but we just can't get there,,, as low as we are we are still close to last Friday's S+P close...
Overnight treasuries got hit back to 3.09 10 years in Asian time and then rebounded in London time to 3.04... Only to get hit again as New York came in... Now back to 3.09.. For the record, we got to 3.10 yesterday in 10 years and 3.20 in long bonds... But you closed close to the 3.03 support in 10 years and below the 3.135 in long bonds... But if these levels break again, and we are above them currently, we can see 3.22 10 years and 3.40 ish long bonds... Curve is steepening as the macro hedge funds and other trend followers like CTA's are pushing the markets lower in futures... Real money will buy, but more slowly... The short base is massive and will be forced to cover... Lots of flatteners have been taken off, but the short base remains huge... Question is what is the catalyst for a treasury rally?... It won't be today's employment report... Maybe the CPI report next week.
Thursday saw more market panic than we have had throughout the current cycle... For the first time we saw elements of capitulation, especially in equities... But that moved to corporate spreads and treasuries as well... However, we do not see the catalyst for a reversal just yet. The S+P alone lost 1.3 trillion in value yesterday. Treasuries have gone through a bear market flush... And to quote a colleague, it is going through at Warp speed... Corporate spreads are heading to our next support levels of 100 in IG and 520 in HY, both measured via CDx...currently 85 and 471.
Merrill's Harnett was out this morning saying the bear run had more to go.. This is the worst 4 months of the year in equities since 1939... And many who have been in the markets for 20 years or less have never seen both treasury and equity bear markets simultaneously... And this with the dollar extremely strong...
Headline payrolls rising 428K, above the 380K expected (which is in the "good news is bad news" camp),
however at the same time average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, below the 0.4% expected (and 0.5% March increase) while the unemployment rate was flat at 3.6%, above the 3.5% expected (both of which are "bad news is good news").
as wages are STILL increasing, doesn't that ensure inflation is still increasing as the wage hike spiral will continue to drive all costs higher?
however at the same time average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, below the 0.4% expected (and 0.5% March increase) while the unemployment rate was flat at 3.6%, above the 3.5% expected (both of which are "bad news is good news").
as wages are STILL increasing, doesn't that ensure inflation is still increasing as the wage hike spiral will continue to drive all costs higher?
Futures went red to green
And back to red
And back to red
If productivity doesn't outpace wages, yes.
been adding to all my dividend ETF and highest corporate dividend stocks the last few weeksjj9000 said:
I know you're a divy king.
Have you ever looked at XYLD?
IBM, Conagra, Kinder Morgan, DIV, DGRO, SPG
4150 keeps getting rejected. i'm sticking with mancini's targetsJet Black said:
Futures went red to green
And back to red
austinAG90 said:
Jittery Markets Bracing For Another Ugly Day... Treasuries Bear Steepening
We know that six Fed governors are speaking today...we saw one report saying that might contradict Powell after the poor performance of the markets yesterday... Give us a break, does anyone really think the Fed governors are going to contradict the chair two days after they voted 10-0 in agreement... Look for the opposite, even Bullard the Bear should be in line... If not then why did he vote for 50?... Nonetheless markets are jittery and the employment number will probably be spun in a negative way... If the number is low they will say companies can't find workers... If it is high then they will say the economy is booming and the Fed is behind the curve to slow it down... We think we are getting close to a bottom... We would have like to call yesterday's move a capitulation, but we just can't get there,,, as low as we are we are still close to last Friday's S+P close...
Overnight treasuries got hit back to 3.09 10 years in Asian time and then rebounded in London time to 3.04... Only to get hit again as New York came in... Now back to 3.09.. For the record, we got to 3.10 yesterday in 10 years and 3.20 in long bonds... But you closed close to the 3.03 support in 10 years and below the 3.135 in long bonds... But if these levels break again, and we are above them currently, we can see 3.22 10 years and 3.40 ish long bonds... Curve is steepening as the macro hedge funds and other trend followers like CTA's are pushing the markets lower in futures... Real money will buy, but more slowly... The short base is massive and will be forced to cover... Lots of flatteners have been taken off, but the short base remains huge... Question is what is the catalyst for a treasury rally?... It won't be today's employment report... Maybe the CPI report next week.
Thursday saw more market panic than we have had throughout the current cycle... For the first time we saw elements of capitulation, especially in equities... But that moved to corporate spreads and treasuries as well... However, we do not see the catalyst for a reversal just yet. The S+P alone lost 1.3 trillion in value yesterday. Treasuries have gone through a bear market flush... And to quote a colleague, it is going through at Warp speed... Corporate spreads are heading to our next support levels of 100 in IG and 520 in HY, both measured via CDx...currently 85 and 471.
Merrill's Harnett was out this morning saying the bear run had more to go.. This is the worst 4 months of the year in equities since 1939... And many who have been in the markets for 20 years or less have never seen both treasury and equity bear markets simultaneously... And this with the dollar extremely strong...
"This is the worst 4 months of the year in equities since 1939."
it seems a 13% drop in the Dow over the last several months is not the worst since 1939.
that seems like a mistake to me- shouldn't it be "worst 4 months to START a year"?
Based on the productivity report yesterday that is not the case, right?
My general anti ESG strategy for longer term plays (I don't have the time do to be active like most of the traders here)
My biggest winning plays from the last 2 years are Exxon and Altria (Phillip Morris)
Guns and Ammo have dipped pretty hard of late, so I'm watching Ruger, S&W and POWW (ammo) - but my fear is that the market overbought in 2021 and we'll see secondary sales suppress these guys for another 1-2 years.
I wish a cartel would go public.
My biggest winning plays from the last 2 years are Exxon and Altria (Phillip Morris)
Guns and Ammo have dipped pretty hard of late, so I'm watching Ruger, S&W and POWW (ammo) - but my fear is that the market overbought in 2021 and we'll see secondary sales suppress these guys for another 1-2 years.
I wish a cartel would go public.
Wild swings. I'm probably not going to trade today. Maybe after the IB period.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Mancini:
Below 4165: target 4055-4065
Above 4165: target 4215
Cheeto:
Below 4099: short, but briefly
Above 4139: long
Redler:
Poss resistance at 4200-4240
Poss support at 4106-4124
Below 4165: target 4055-4065
Above 4165: target 4215
Cheeto:
Below 4099: short, but briefly
Above 4139: long
Redler:
Poss resistance at 4200-4240
Poss support at 4106-4124
30K:
Below yesterday LOD - short
Above 4150 - long
Below yesterday LOD - short
Above 4150 - long
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Looking at strikes for TSLA. I'll likely play ATM calls if TSLA and macros run green for the first 10-15 and 880 or 900 puts of we run red.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Got an alert: METX above $0.95. Was that a buy signal someone was discussing here?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:
Looking at strikes for TSLA. I'll likely play ATM calls if TSLA and macros run green for the first 10-15 and 880 or 900 puts of we run red.
I'm still waiting. I want to see what happens with SPX LOD from yesterday.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:Bob Knights Liver said:
Looking at strikes for TSLA. I'll likely play ATM calls if TSLA and macros run green for the first 10-15 and 880 or 900 puts of we run red.
I'm still waiting. I want to see what happens with SPX LOD from yesterday.
In 850P now. Stop is at 873. I don't feel super confident though.
Finding a little support here. see if we bounce.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
Got an alert: METX above $0.95. Was that a buy signal someone was discussing here?
I've got a note to sell it, so i must have some shares somewhere
nope!BrokeAssAggie said:
Finding a little support here. see if we bounce.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Be careful here. This just screams of random retail trapping bounce to me.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
30K:
Below yesterday LOD - short
Above 4150 - long
Are you still all in at sp500 = 4000? Now that we are here, I'm thinking 3800
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:
Be careful here. This just screams of random retail trapping bounce to me.
I got out of my TSLA puts. $1500 for the day. I'm probably cutting short another great trend day, but I'm trying to consistently take $1k-$5k profits four times a week.
Yes sir the old Yugo fired up this morning and backfired a few times, is currently chugging out black smoke though.
Looking good so far for a big ol bite of VTI this afternoon.
Looking good so far for a big ol bite of VTI this afternoon.
Ok, I think this is excessive now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Philip J Fry said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
30K:
Below yesterday LOD - short
Above 4150 - long
Are you still all in at sp500 = 4000? Now that we are here, I'm thinking 3800
I should have posted this but I'm going to buy when this level holds. I would blindly buy at 3800, but I don't think we go there directly.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
MSTR has market cap of $3.2B now. They own 129K Bitcoin at cost of $3.97B or 30,700 Bitcoin price. Bitcoin is now 35K
This stock is undervalued for Bitcoin longs. The value of its Bitcoin holdings is $4.5B
This stock is undervalued for Bitcoin longs. The value of its Bitcoin holdings is $4.5B
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Almost to Monday's low. I think we bounce off that or off the lower BB.
Is this all you say here?
400.61 is the gap fill on SPY. That's the target
NVDA and TSLA nice bounces off the low
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