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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I think we'll magically close right at the 200-ema (4415.32) or the 50-sma (4427). That makes the most sense to me. Tomorrow we red to green or we puke and don't stop puking until Baylor says "wow I didn't expect it to be THIS bearish!"
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
sell 1 at 0.36

Hold rest.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

50K: bought 2 XSP 442P at 0.25.

Max risk.

I like it. I bought a couple 443P for $0.89 each.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

sell 1 at 0.36

Hold rest.
going to set a stop at 0.4 for the final to guarantee profit.

Up over 100%. Congrats.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
moving to 0.5 stop. Guaranteed 100%
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
went ahead and sold at 0.65

2.5X
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
50K, buying 1 SPX 4410P at $2.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

50K, buying 1 SPX 4410P at $2.
stop loss @ 3
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
jwhitlock3
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

50K, buying 1 SPX 4410P at $2.
hell of a trade! up to 3.50
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
out at 2.80

Not bad, eh?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Paradise Ag
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AG

FJB and the bear he rode in on.

That is all. Proceed.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Like Greenday says: Welcome to bearadise!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Brewmaster
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AG
missed it, story of my life lately, great call!
BaylorSpineGuy
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Continuation for tomorrow? Anyone holding puts overnight?
jwhitlock3
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I've been burned too many times lately with the move happening overnight, and then rallying on normal market open. If you do I'd suggest sizing way down and keep an appropriate amount of risk on. I decided not to keep overnight's in this market.

I wish there was a way to play futures options 23/5, I could set stops or alerts and actually play some of the overnight action.

A good example of this: last Thursday into close we reclaimed 4490 and I want calls into close thinking we'd hit 4515/4520. We did, about an hour after close and again at 2am, but the market rejected right off 4520 and would would have been a 30 point gain turned into a losing trade for me when we started losing steam hard from 6am to open.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Today was a pretty sizable down day. and there is a gap above, plus it's OPEX.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
we closed at -1, I think a bounce is due.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Yeah….I've kept sidelines. Been too busy with work/boards to trade actively. No point in chasing and burning through trading account. No FOMO here.
jwhitlock3
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I wish there was a way to play extended hours with options, would make it much easier. I would have bought itm puts with that loss of 4415.
Brewmaster
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AG
jwhitlock3 said:

I wish there was a way to play extended hours with options, would make it much easier. I would have bought itm puts with that loss of 4415.
I think we do see some continuation. under 4400 tomorrow seems like a given with the momentum down this afternoon, then rally tomorrow afternoon
LMCane
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Continuation for tomorrow? Anyone holding puts overnight?
can't wait for the new report of March 8.4% inflation rate in a few hours!!

bullish for stonks for sure.
FTAG 2000
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AG
LMCane said:

BaylorSpineGuy said:

Continuation for tomorrow? Anyone holding puts overnight?
can't wait for the new report of March 8.4% inflation rate in a few hours!!

bullish for stonks for sure.

Honestly the way things have gone, I could see tomorrow being the greenest day of the month. Everyone expecting it to go down.

Max pain for Thursday for SPX is 4450.
ProgN
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I may be talking out of my ass and AustinAg can correct me but I'm getting the feeling that the fed is trying to talk down the market as much as they can without raising rates considerably. The US is in so much debt, raising rates makes that even worse. They've known that inflation is growing and should have started raising rates in Q4 of '21 but didn't. Then they said they're "prepared" to do what it takes to rein in inflation, but they only raised 25 basis points? Right after that meeting, they were all on talking tough about 50 basis point raises for the foreseeable future. They're essentially getting what they want without actually having to raise. JMO, but it seems like that to me.
Spoony Love
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AG
I mean it's a plausible idea and you probably aren't far off from the truth if this isn't it.

I still think they have no choice but to raise rates. I'd rather they pull the band-aid off and let things get tough but that won't happen. We are a nation of entitled brats. Complaining about your Starbucks being expensive and it actually being too expensive to buy are two very different scenarios.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Would any Dallas area people have an interest to meet once a month on a Friday afternoon or something like that to get together? We have some friends that own a cool restaurant over in old Grand Prairie. Place is called Firehouse Gastro Park and Bistro.

They host live music, etc., on Fridays. They do a karaoke thing on Thursday's. They have really good food and great mixed drinks with a decent assortment of craft beers too.

Just a thought….once boards wrap up, I'd be all in.
ProgN
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Spoony Love said:

I mean it's a plausible idea and you probably aren't far off from the truth if this isn't it.

I still think they have no choice but to raise rates. I'd rather they pull the band-aid off and let things get tough but that won't happen. We are a nation of entitled brats. Complaining about your Starbucks being expensive and it actually being too expensive to buy are two very different scenarios.
Think about it, the bond rates have gone up significantly and it's effects can be seen in the drop of mortgage applications. The market has definitely been affected. People are tightening their belts already. The fed is getting all this from a mere 25 basis point raise.
Spoony Love
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AG
I'm pondering how much more belt tightening needs to happen. Mortgage applications decreasing is a start, but eventually we will start seeing consumers defaulting on debt right?
ProgN
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Which will only get worse if they raise rates because most people have a ton of credit card debt.
TecRecAg
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AG
In my non-expert opinion, Defaulting on the debt would be tied to unemployment increases. People are working and there are far more jobs than people.

I don't see that changing any time soon. So as long as people are paying their bills..
MaroonDynasty
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This is a important to watch to see a collection of clips from the Shanghai lockdown.


Brewmaster
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Spoony Love said:

I mean it's a plausible idea and you probably aren't far off from the truth if this isn't it.

I still think they have no choice but to raise rates. I'd rather they pull the band-aid off and let things get tough but that won't happen. We are a nation of entitled brats. Complaining about your Starbucks being expensive and it actually being too expensive to buy are two very different scenarios.
I think Prog is onto something, the Fed is good at spooking the markets when they want and inflation is going to reign in spending regardless of rates I think. I think we already saw it with vehicles, now it's hitting retail.

My wife bought a few pairs of shorts from Academy a couple days ago. The price at the register was ringing up around 20% higher than the price on the tag in the store. She brought it to their attention - "Oh, our prices are going up pretty much storewide". It wasn't a deal breaker, but interesting nonetheless. On what she bought it was something like 15.99 to 19.99 per item. I have no idea if that's the kind of increase we'll see nationwide, but that's substantial.
Brewmaster
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no, no, no I don't. horrible things are happening there. Regardless of what you think of the Chinese, their people deserve better. Everyone here say a prayer for them.
ProgN
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BREwmaster said:

no, no, no I don't. horrible things are happening there. Regardless of what you think of the Chinese, their people deserve better. Everyone here say a prayer for them.
They don't have a 2A. Things would probably be different if they did.
austinAG90
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I think you are on to something.... Let me go try a new happy hour and will get back to you in the morning
ProgN
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Cool
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