folks, of course it was going to sell into the close today - duh. We had a huge rally and there was profit taking.

It doesn't mean it will happen, but there are good odds for a gap up tomorrow.

Peter Thiel speaking at Bitcoin 2022:

Today all the gold in the world is worth $12 trillion, while global equities are worth $115 trillion. In 1980, the ratio was one-to-one, with all the gold in the world and global equities having the same value of $2.5 trillion.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 7, 2022

I know Thiel is long gold big time

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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It doesn't mean it will happen, but there are good odds for a gap up tomorrow.

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Actual footage of me buying MSFT $310C for $0.12 at the close.

McInnis 03 said:

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I

Hate

This

Pattern

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Pattern update https://t.co/X0lKJLjIlY pic.twitter.com/EjwCtqhRGe

— Charles F (@charlesf11) April 7, 2022

M4 Benelli said:

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I was looking heavily into UAN the past couple days. Really wanted to get my feet wet in a pile of shart dontchaknow. My eagerness got swatted down like a fly on the backside of a Saskatchewan slattern of the night. K-1 filing for it being an MLP just seemed like a pita, and there's other plays which can take me to the pay window Dusty Rhodes fashion.
My shart play of the day, pardon my French, is IPI. This thing has room to run if the stars remain aligned in the fertilizer shortage. Low P/E, Buyback announced, Debt paid in full, with 60mil cash on hand. Stock price looks like its ramped up quite a bit, but the amount of FCF that will be generated along with increase in Potash prices makes it look attractive as heck. Dont bet the farm, but definitely worthy of taking a hog or two behind the woodshed.

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IPI with a 15% day today. Hedge inflating food costs with good ole Fert fellas. Ofcourse I swung my position on the day prior and missed out some solid soiled tendies. 2nd time in about as many months that I unloaded high conviction plays that wouldve made me stacks worthy of Barbara Eden. Had almost my whole port in CLF at an avg of 17, unloaded, and now its doubled.

Cant end up in Eden without crawling through glass.

Scooped up some CZR and more AMD today. Still holding ZIM, and added shipping play GSL to my port.

Also for oil plays, peep BPT, already has ran up, but should have more meat on the bone. Buy ona dip ofcourse.

M4 Benelli said:

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M4 Benelli said:

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I was looking heavily into UAN the past couple days. Really wanted to get my feet wet in a pile of shart dontchaknow. My eagerness got swatted down like a fly on the backside of a Saskatchewan slattern of the night. K-1 filing for it being an MLP just seemed like a pita, and there's other plays which can take me to the pay window Dusty Rhodes fashion.
My shart play of the day, pardon my French, is IPI. This thing has room to run if the stars remain aligned in the fertilizer shortage. Low P/E, Buyback announced, Debt paid in full, with 60mil cash on hand. Stock price looks like its ramped up quite a bit, but the amount of FCF that will be generated along with increase in Potash prices makes it look attractive as heck. Dont bet the farm, but definitely worthy of taking a hog or two behind the woodshed.

---

IPI with a 15% day today. Hedge inflating food costs with good ole Fert fellas. Ofcourse I swung my position on the day prior and missed out some solid soiled tendies. 2nd time in about as many months that I unloaded high conviction plays that wouldve made me stacks worthy of Barbara Eden. Had almost my whole port in CLF at an avg of 17, unloaded, and now its doubled.

Cant end up in Eden without crawling through glass.

Scooped up some CZR and more AMD today. Still holding ZIM, and added shipping play GSL to my port.

Also for oil plays, peep BPT, already has ran up, but should have more meat on the bone. Buy ona dip ofcourse.

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dude I wish you could post more... love your stuff. Barbara Eden = babe.

I make sure not to have any beer in my mouth when reading your posts, or it'd end up all over the place! Great writing!

59 South said:

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I feel like we need to have one of those panel discussion video things with everyone telling their story about how they became hood rich.

How many here grew up quasi poor with pressure to not leave their small Texas hometown only to go national/global and end up hood rich?

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So naturally graduated in 1990 with no real job so I messed around in Austin and finally found a job at a local Broker-Dealer making $5/hr starting off in the back office settling trades...6 months was promoted to the CMO/Mortgage desk and starting trading....6 months after that was running the desk but not getting paid for it so after 18 months and "sorry about your bonus this year" crap I left and moved to Houston and went to work for a real mortgage trading shop....It was the wild west back then in mortgage land and Houston was a major hub......Did that from 92-97 and was then recruited back to Austin to Trade and sale distressed debt......From 97-2014 distressed was it.....I can't recall all the different credits I was involved with but if you named a company from 1997-2014 many all filed Chp 11....Some of the best off my old mind would be: 1) Wireless cable names in 1998-99 that ended up being purchased by Sprint and MCI....True story, 1 of my accounts from the sales side was involved in a restructuring of a wireless cable credit (CIA Wireless) got new bonds and 100k shares of new equity, well him being a HY Fund was not allowed to hold equity positions so I bought his 100k shares for $1 total and put them in my 401k....Less than a year later those shares were tendered from MCI at $28/share.....2000 we bought a 4500/sg ft house outside of Austin...2) MCI of course became Worldcom and they filed Chp 11 and there were billions of bonds available to trade....Our firm ended up getting 3 of the largest buyers of the debt and we traded $250mm+ daily for 4 months...Of course this was before screens and trace so the market was what you made it as long as you could back it up.....Our desk made $50mm+ on that credit...3) Enron was a great 1 as well...Had an analyst on the phone for their qtr call when one of the higher up guys called a hedgefund manager (short seller) an ******* for asking some "relevant question"....We shorted bank debt and bonds next morning from mid $90's and covered at mid $40's.....Bonds ended up going to low teens if I remember right and then I had an analyst who really broke down all the subs and we figured bonds were worth $50+ on liquidation...We found several large friendly distressed hedge funds and presented them our model and then we went on a buying spree trading bonds all over the place....We were off on recovery by 5 cents....bonds got ~$45.....4) Lehman and Bear Stearns bonds were interesting as well as Washington Mutual bonds...What we found were a few success in the corporate bonds but in their private wrapped mortgage bonds we found the gems....Basically the "Big Short" post mortem.....Those bonds that hadn't defaulted away were at pennies on the $$ and still paying!!!!.....Was a huge trade for distressed players involved.....

Man there are so many one offs as well and I'm just rambling here....My wife wants me to write a detailed book at some point.....Let's see what other credits....

Arch Communications (sports and logos always a bad sign)
Globalstar....3 times and still involved
Primus
Exodus
Kmart
Sears
Levitz
RCN
Lucent
Airline Muni bonds post 9/11
ALGX
Mirant
Calpine 2 times
United Air
Bank of New England
Six Flags
GM
Pilgrims Pride...bonds went from $5 to $103+ and never filed BK

There are so many other stories but probably not the best venue for disclosure...

Have a few other homerun situations that have resulted from being in the chair I am and have been very fortunate.....I won't be sitting in this chair much longer to be honest, tired of the business and regulations are never going to stop....This thread is really really good and while I am still learning the technical trade I have thoroughly enjoyed it....And will be using it even more when I parachute......


I really could write a ton more about crazy characters and situations, fights at dinners in NYC between competing trading desks, and brown paper bags with $15k in it given to an influencer who assisted with some trades and all kinds of stuff and maybe one day this thread will get a first look at what I write.....

Till then hold onto your butts and be smart......It's not looking pretty from where I sit......

austinAG90 said:

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59 South said:

---

I feel like we need to have one of those panel discussion video things with everyone telling their story about how they became hood rich.

How many here grew up quasi poor with pressure to not leave their small Texas hometown only to go national/global and end up hood rich?

---

So naturally graduated in 1990 with no real job so I messed around in Austin and finally found a job at a local Broker-Dealer making $5/hr starting off in the back office settling trades...6 months was promoted to the CMO/Mortgage desk and starting trading....6 months after that was running the desk but not getting paid for it so after 18 months and "sorry about your bonus this year" crap I left and moved to Houston and went to work for a real mortgage trading shop....It was the wild west back then in mortgage land and Houston was a major hub......Did that from 92-97 and was then recruited back to Austin to Trade and sale distressed debt......From 97-2014 distressed was it.....I can't recall all the different credits I was involved with but if you named a company from 1997-2014 many all filed Chp 11....Some of the best off my old mind would be: 1) Wireless cable names in 1998-99 that ended up being purchased by Sprint and MCI....True story, 1 of my accounts from the sales side was involved in a restructuring of a wireless cable credit (CIA Wireless) got new bonds and 100k shares of new equity, well him being a HY Fund was not allowed to hold equity positions so I bought his 100k shares for $1 total and put them in my 401k....Less than a year later those shares were tendered from MCI at $28/share.....2000 we bought a 4500/sg ft house outside of Austin...2) MCI of course became Worldcom and they filed Chp 11 and there were billions of bonds available to trade....Our firm ended up getting 3 of the largest buyers of the debt and we traded $250mm+ daily for 4 months...Of course this was before screens and trace so the market was what you made it as long as you could back it up.....Our desk made $50mm+ on that credit...3) Enron was a great 1 as well...Had an analyst on the phone for their qtr call when one of the higher up guys called a hedgefund manager (short seller) an ******* for asking some "relevant question"....We shorted bank debt and bonds next morning from mid $90's and covered at mid $40's.....Bonds ended up going to low teens if I remember right and then I had an analyst who really broke down all the subs and we figured bonds were worth $50+ on liquidation...We found several large friendly distressed hedge funds and presented them our model and then we went on a buying spree trading bonds all over the place....We were off on recovery by 5 cents....bonds got ~$45.....4) Lehman and Bear Stearns bonds were interesting as well as Washington Mutual bonds...What we found were a few success in the corporate bonds but in their private wrapped mortgage bonds we found the gems....Basically the "Big Short" post mortem.....Those bonds that hadn't defaulted away were at pennies on the $$ and still paying!!!!.....Was a huge trade for distressed players involved.....

Man there are so many one offs as well and I'm just rambling here....My wife wants me to write a detailed book at some point.....Let's see what other credits....

Arch Communications (sports and logos always a bad sign)
Globalstar....3 times and still involved
Primus
Exodus
Kmart
Sears
Levitz
RCN
Lucent
Airline Muni bonds post 9/11
ALGX
Mirant
Calpine 2 times
United Air
Bank of New England
Six Flags
GM
Pilgrims Pride...bonds went from $5 to $103+ and never filed BK

There are so many other stories but probably not the best venue for disclosure...

Have a few other homerun situations that have resulted from being in the chair I am and have been very fortunate.....I won't be sitting in this chair much longer to be honest, tired of the business and regulations are never going to stop....This thread is really really good and while I am still learning the technical trade I have thoroughly enjoyed it....And will be using it even more when I parachute......


I really could write a ton more about crazy characters and situations, fights at dinners in NYC between competing trading desks, and brown paper bags with $15k in it given to an influencer who assisted with some trades and all kinds of stuff and maybe one day this thread will get a first look at what I write.....

Till then hold onto your butts and be smart......It's not looking pretty from where I sit......

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Wow austinAG90. What a journey and thanks so much for sharing all that. Hope you do write something someday. Can't wait to read it.

That's fascinating! My story is a lot shorter: I shot Tupac and then put all the money Biggie gave me into AAPL shares.

Amazing history brother and thank you for sharing.

I suspect the market takes you post for us in the morning are proprietary and you assume some risk for freely sharing it. I believe I can speak for everyone here when I say thank you.

Austin Ag I would kill to hear those stories. Great read and thanks for all you post. I'm always in awe of you guys who have been through it all . Just incredible experiences.

Austin is a baller.

We really do need to have an 'Annual Stockholders Meeting' sometime. A Friday or Saturday afternoon for various short discussions and presentations about trading tips or strategies and trading stories followed by dinner and drinks. That would be so badass. Location in DFW, Houston, or Austin would be fine, but having it in BCS as an excuse to get back to the motherland would really be special.

Awesome stories AustinAg. Agree with Bob….except I'm allergic to B/CS and died of a broken heart there in 2005 when we lost in OT.

I got slammed at work this week after being off and haven't followed hardly anything.

Bob Knights Liver said:

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We really do need to have an 'Annual Stockholders Meeting' sometime. A Friday or Saturday afternoon for various short discussions and presentations about trading tips or strategies and trading stories followed by dinner and drinks. That would be so badass. Location in DFW, Houston, or Austin would be fine, but having it in BCS as an excuse to get back to the motherland would really be special.

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That sounds fun but 59 South has to be there. An Aggie using 'whilst' or getting into an argument while using the King's English would be worth the trip.

"They're getting their stock advice from memes" LOL

I love this commercial

Markets Trying to Digest Fed Balance Sheet Outline... Curve Mild Steepening

Investors are trying to decipher what the Fed is going to do and how it will affect markets... Will the curve steepen, as it has done the last few days, or will it flatten, like it is today....10 years moved from 2.62 overnight at 8.30 PM to a high yield of 2.69 at 4.23 am... It remains at 2.67...we see support now at 2.76... JPM Asset management now sees 10 years reaching 3% by year end, how about by next month... SG economist sees the Fed only getting to 1% Fed Funds, that will be exceeded by the end of July.... So there are plenty of opinions, but the reality is the market is short the front end, and long the curve with flatteners... Plenty of position risk is out there..

Corporates came to market with 10.75 billion in IG yesterday... We are back to 3x over-subscription but new issue concessions remain higher than the past year... . The Junk market is set to close the week with losses as yields rose 25 basis week to date...most of that was in the treasury market... Meanwhile investors pulled 3.2 billion from the muni market... Where our muni team pointed out that spreads were getting crushed.
Long-term municipal funds lost about $2.4 billion
Intermediate- maturity funds saw outflows of about $566 million
High-yield funds lost about $1 billion

Equities hit 4450 yesterday in the S+P and bounced nicely from a large loss to a reasonable gain... Overnight equities were lower early and then moved 30 points higher, currently up 14

Rates are going higher, 3 month libor is now over 1.01... That rate, along with others will continue record highers... 2 years 2.61, 5 years 2.80 and 10 years 2.76...whether you believe Bullard concerning 300 basis of moves, or whether you believe us, who think about 150 and another 100 worth of B/S... Rates are still going higher.

Expect more chop, but not so much today... But positions are very large and levered, so big moves are coming...

Soaked up every word of this SportsCenter summary and LOVED it. Your wife is right, your book would be a fun one. But you better come up with a good ghostwriter name, nobody is gonna want to read "Bull **** and Bear Scat" by "Richard Lewis". It's gotta be by "Scallon Fairchild" or some pompous **** like that.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Austin is a baller.

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Agreed. Stock market meet up needs to happen. Phones in faraday bags (haha) and let Austin Ag go uncensored!

Edit to say I see this was discussed above.

ProgN said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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We really do need to have an 'Annual Stockholders Meeting' sometime. A Friday or Saturday afternoon for various short discussions and presentations about trading tips or strategies and trading stories followed by dinner and drinks. That would be so badass. Location in DFW, Houston, or Austin would be fine, but having it in BCS as an excuse to get back to the motherland would really be special.

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That sounds fun but 59 South has to be there. An Aggie using 'whilst' or getting into an argument while using the King's English would be worth the trip.

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Come on now, y'all all have enough spare change to let me host in The City. I'm sure one of the McInnis's would love to see the source of the daily "London close" trade.

Or The Chicken works too. Heck I just got into town last night!