Bob Knights Liver said:

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VIX moving back up. 4474.6 is a big point here for SPX. Break that and we get an M. I might buy an SPX put or two if we do.

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Or maybe it isn't. It's broken 4474 multiple times and bounced. Maybe the LOD is needed for downward trend? Maybe all the way to 4464 at the 50-day?

That's not a bad idea in a taxable account.

jwhitlock3 said:

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I know volume is higher in a bullish market but things feel extra dead in this first hour this morning.

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Yes this chop eats you up if using options. I've been there before last month. I've been sitting out besides that one opening hour TSLA trade.

I want to go short TSLA so bad, but I'm waiting for SPX to decide where it's going first. It needs to confirm and hold below 4463.92.

/ES is rising but the volume seems pretty weak.

Tiger just teed off. Expect low volume for the next 4.5 hours.

If we want this to be one of the greenest weeks of the year (with loooong wicks) we're going to have to grab $22 by close tomorrow. Ain't happening. I did however buy some "peace in the pretty far east" spreads for Monday. 462/465 for .02 and 457/458 for .05

I also overlaid mar 2009-eoy 2013 (start of Obama presidency) with mar 2020 to present....lot of similarities, including the current dip, which reversed right about here for a pretty solid run to ath on 5/2. I don't think we're getting another ath again soon but got some 5/4 spreads to 472

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sp-500-companies-get-the-most-analyst-buy-ratings-in-over-a-decade-151225882.html

"Additionally, consensus analysts anticipate the S&P 500 will see a price increase of 16.8% to top the 5,000 level over the next 12 months based on the difference between the bottom-up target price and the closing price for the index as of March 24, per FactSet data."

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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This is silly. I just bought some crwd 225 calls for next week for 4.6-4.65
Edit to add: i suck at this though so i hope nobody follows me into poverty

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Trimmed some of these for 6.5

This happened mar 2011-2012, but not without a serious dip may into august, then major chop/consolidation (trader's dream) before heading up in october-ish
I need to get the seasonality chart overlaid on these

crude oil is getting murdered.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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crude oil is getting murdered.

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Drip finally going to go?

you can try a counter trend long here on SPY/SPX with a stop at SPY 444. I would go OTM so that you don't get killed on small moves.

it might. These are times when you just sit on your hands.

Does anyone think bitcoin won't come back? Me neither.

Fed's Bullard says interest rate policy is 'behind the curve' but 'all is not lost' (cnbc.com)

Quote:

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The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates substantially to control inflation but may not be as "behind the curve" as it appears, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Thursday.

One of the Federal Open Market Committee's most "hawkish" members in favor of tighter policy, Bullard said a rules-based approach suggests the central bank needs to hike its benchmark short-term borrowing rate to about 3.5%.

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Quote:

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"You're still behind the curve, but not as much as it looks like," he added. Markets are pricing in rates hitting the 3.5% rate in the summer of 2023, a bit slower than Bullard anticipates, according to CME Group data.

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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you can try a counter trend long here on SPY/SPX with a stop at SPY 444. I would go OTM so that you don't get killed on small moves.

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this worked if you took it. Trim and move your stops.

Can someone help me out with understanding something. I am looking to do CC on SAVA to try and chip away at this and i noticed it looks like a straddle play ( i think) was made on the May 45s. Calls and puts for roughly same amount. What would this indicate?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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it might. These are times when you just sit on your hands.

Does anyone think bitcoin won't come back? Me neither.

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true, and it doesn't look like it's capitulated yet, no real volume on that overnight bitcoin dip. If that's any indication, should mean more pain for the markets.

Is there a bitcoin ETF?

This doesn't sound right with $SAVA at $25 currently. Calls should be much cheaper than puts at a $45 strike.

Just looked. $1 for calls, $21 for puts.

TecRecAg said:

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This doesn't sound right with $SAVA at $25 currently. Calls should be much cheaper than puts at a $45 strike.

Just looked. $1 for calls, $21 for puts.

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Guess you are talking May?

Any thoughts on $DKNG?

I am looking at selling the $16P next week. It would lower my cost basis to about $17.5 if I were to get assigned.

Working the wheel on this one.

30, are you still in SPCE? I assume you are but I thought I may have missed it. Appreciate it.

I was going off May based on the first post. Maybe I'm missing something?

TecRecAg said:

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I was going off May based on the first post. Maybe I'm missing something?

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Yeah once you clarified the 1/21 split I see May.

I don't know how to value those calls at $1 at this point. Seems like a longshot (understatement).

TecRecAg said:

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This doesn't sound right with $SAVA at $25 currently. Calls should be much cheaper than puts at a $45 strike.

Just looked. $1 for calls, $21 for puts.

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i was saying the volume on the $45 calls and Puts for May are elevated so looks like both were purchased. But i don't know how to interpret that. More curious on the volume and if that meant something...just found it odd

Lfg

Ahhh. Volume. I thought you meant price!

going for 1 TSLA 1000P for tomorrow. since we haven't reclaimed 4480 in ES-F

VIX with a little bear flag. We might get another push higher here.