BA isn't one I actively follow but will do more in depth research tomorrow. I have to get my son to go to sleep. He's a bear when you wake him up, he got that from his mother.FJ43 said:
Will BA run into earnings on the 29th? Maybe a spread is the play.
OA called out ORCL the other day. Think he's in at 1.15 average on the 4/29 85c. At .72 with 3 weeks left and that chart.....Hmmmm might have to partake.
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That's why I paid up for the 305 on the market weakness today. The OI indicates what I'm seeing, a runup into earnings. I believe I'll capitalize more if it does run into earnings. I just want to ride the anticipation wave and cash out.FJ43 said:ProgN said:I bought some MSFT APR 29 $305c today. Their earnings are on the 25th so I consider it a minimal risk for me.FJ43 said:I'm looking bro. Scouring hundreds of charts.ProgN said:FJ43 said:
Man I hate missing all the action with y'all.
Fun binge reading at night the thread though from the open to close in one swoop.
Bulls...bears...bulls....bears....bulls....bears.....
No trades for me today. Today wasn't a day I could pay enough attention. Hard for a trading junkie.
You got any of those MSFT callouts you can spare?
Call me nuts but just entered WWR buys as trading shares for early premarket shenanigans.
Check out the OI on the 4/29 325c. That's a bunch.
Chart looks interesting for that play.ProgN said:That's why I paid up for the 305 on the market weakness today. The OI indicates what I'm seeing, a runup into earnings. I believe I'll capitalize more if it does run into earnings. I just want to ride the anticipation wave and cash out.FJ43 said:ProgN said:I bought some MSFT APR 29 $305c today. Their earnings are on the 25th so I consider it a minimal risk for me.FJ43 said:I'm looking bro. Scouring hundreds of charts.ProgN said:FJ43 said:
Man I hate missing all the action with y'all.
Fun binge reading at night the thread though from the open to close in one swoop.
Bulls...bears...bulls....bears....bulls....bears.....
No trades for me today. Today wasn't a day I could pay enough attention. Hard for a trading junkie.
You got any of those MSFT callouts you can spare?
Call me nuts but just entered WWR buys as trading shares for early premarket shenanigans.
Check out the OI on the 4/29 325c. That's a bunch.
, Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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FJ43 said:
Will BA run into earnings on the 29th? Maybe a spread is the play.
OA called out ORCL the other day. Think he's in at 1.15 average on the 4/29 85c. At .72 with 3 weeks left and that chart.....Hmmmm might have to partake.
I think additional contracts of the cheaper ORCL calls are the way to go. I thought about picking up some at a lower strike, but if the market is going to tank that won't matter anyway. We either get an April run or we don't.
I'm going to play it from here. It's either a double + or fails between 80.80-81.15 IMO. For me i probably cut with a close below 81.15.Bob Knights Liver said:FJ43 said:
Will BA run into earnings on the 29th? Maybe a spread is the play.
OA called out ORCL the other day. Think he's in at 1.15 average on the 4/29 85c. At .72 with 3 weeks left and that chart.....Hmmmm might have to partake.
I think additional contracts of the cheaper ORCL calls are the way to go. I thought about picking up some at a lower strike, but if the market is going to tank that won't matter anyway. We either get an April run or we don't.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Subscribed to Mancini. Man y'all weren't kidding. Got first email from him tonight. That's a lot of analysis.
FTAG 2000 said:
Subscribed to Mancini. Man y'all weren't kidding. Got first email from him tonight. That's a lot of analysis.
He's solid IMO. A Pro.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
how about that nice rounded bottom on CIDM. Looking like it may rocket soon, been incredibly strong too in this market.
Personally I love trading this little guy. Have had so much fun with it. Wish this thing had options to leverage. But until then net free yourself away has been my motto with it.BREwmaster said:
how about that nice rounded bottom on CIDM. Looking like it may rocket soon, been incredibly strong too in this market.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
best sub there is for SPY scalps/ levels! He also teaches the finer points of price action, which I had no clue on previously (like one from yesterday into today that made me money - yesterday's close was ugly, no levels or support really hit, so good chance of continuation into this morning). Bingo, that was spot on, we gapped down this morning and markets were red again today.
Of course my 445 retest is AH.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I know you love downtrend breaks, hope they wait until tomorrow.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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It didn't wait. Today if we get above 4500 then it's on
Fed Has Brought Forward Their May Meeting Moves... Curve Steepening
The Fed, with their detailed FOMC minutes and their view towards a 50 basis point move in May, has brought forward most of what we can expect from the May 4 meeting result... The yield curve is starting to worry that the massive Fed QT numbers, or expectations of numbers, will halt the yield curve flattening... 2/10, which had been inverted, is now 18... 5/30, which had been inverted 15 basis, is now only inverted by 1 and will probably go positive at some point today...
Overnight and after the minutes, the markets have been trying to figure out which way to go... For treasuries it looks like the long exposure of the street, with flatteners, is vulnerable... As is the massive profits from being short the front end... Nonetheless 10 years hit a low yield at 3.23 am of 2.55 and then quickly zoomed up to 2.62, which is where we are now... The question is what happens next... Many do not seem to believe the Fed Balance Sheet moves will move the curve steeper, we disagree and see that is happening in front of our eyes currently...yesterday's support on 2/5's seem to have come back into play, 2.51 and 2.68... But to be safe we will move support to yesterday's high yield of 2.60 for 2 years and 2.80 for 5 years, respectively... 10 years hit a 2.66 high yesterday, so that is our first support, but if we are right, 2.75 is a better support number... And for long bonds 2.68 is the first support, but 2.78 seems like a better number as longs and flatteners get stopped out...
Balance Sheet.. 95 billion a month, to get started next month, but only gradually get to the 95 number over the next 3 months... 60 billion of treasuries, which will be focused on coupons, as those coupons will not get reinvested in treasury auctions, like they have been in the past... If there is not enough coupons to mature, then they will use bills.. As for mortgages, the run offs have been decreasing as mortgage rates have gone from 3.30 at the beginning of the year to 5% now.. But what runoff there are, the Fed will use up to 35 billion to unwind... They will eventually have to sell mortgages to keep the percentages inline, but we do not expect to see any outright selling until at least the end of the year... We expect mortgage spreads to widen further.
Equities... Here we are worried... Given our view that equities were ok until the Fed meeting on May 4 may have to be revised.. As we said previously, the Fed has brought forward next months results... 50 and B/S details... What more can we expect from the Fed on May 4?... All the Fed governors, including the perma dove Brainard, are all pulling the same way... INFLATION IS PARAMOUNT... But as we said in a TV interview yesterday, and will probably say again today that the inflation is dominated by supply side issues... Which we see getting better based on ship and trucking data... Of course the energy and food situation, due to Ukraine and Russia, will not be resolved any time soon...and the Chinese lock-downs, which help with the price of oil, are not helpful across the goods spectrum...
Corporates... Spreads a little wider and new issues are coming to a halt as corporate treasurers try to figure out the next moves....only one issue yesterday... Secondary trading has dropped off to 27 billion in IG, off from the 45 billion we saw last week. A drop of 40%.
Where are we going?.. We expect choppy markets as the Fed dynamics and the street positions get adjusted... The DUMB position of the Fed, which we saw in a Bill Dudley op ed yesterday, is that the Fed needs to crush the economy to get a soft landing... Many, even our friends at Stifel, put out an equity overview where they think the Fed will start to ease again at the end of this year.. Doubtful... But our view is that the Fed will move more slowly and use the B/S to adjust rate rises by 4 25 basis moves... So it should be interesting...
The Fed, with their detailed FOMC minutes and their view towards a 50 basis point move in May, has brought forward most of what we can expect from the May 4 meeting result... The yield curve is starting to worry that the massive Fed QT numbers, or expectations of numbers, will halt the yield curve flattening... 2/10, which had been inverted, is now 18... 5/30, which had been inverted 15 basis, is now only inverted by 1 and will probably go positive at some point today...
Overnight and after the minutes, the markets have been trying to figure out which way to go... For treasuries it looks like the long exposure of the street, with flatteners, is vulnerable... As is the massive profits from being short the front end... Nonetheless 10 years hit a low yield at 3.23 am of 2.55 and then quickly zoomed up to 2.62, which is where we are now... The question is what happens next... Many do not seem to believe the Fed Balance Sheet moves will move the curve steeper, we disagree and see that is happening in front of our eyes currently...yesterday's support on 2/5's seem to have come back into play, 2.51 and 2.68... But to be safe we will move support to yesterday's high yield of 2.60 for 2 years and 2.80 for 5 years, respectively... 10 years hit a 2.66 high yesterday, so that is our first support, but if we are right, 2.75 is a better support number... And for long bonds 2.68 is the first support, but 2.78 seems like a better number as longs and flatteners get stopped out...
Balance Sheet.. 95 billion a month, to get started next month, but only gradually get to the 95 number over the next 3 months... 60 billion of treasuries, which will be focused on coupons, as those coupons will not get reinvested in treasury auctions, like they have been in the past... If there is not enough coupons to mature, then they will use bills.. As for mortgages, the run offs have been decreasing as mortgage rates have gone from 3.30 at the beginning of the year to 5% now.. But what runoff there are, the Fed will use up to 35 billion to unwind... They will eventually have to sell mortgages to keep the percentages inline, but we do not expect to see any outright selling until at least the end of the year... We expect mortgage spreads to widen further.
Equities... Here we are worried... Given our view that equities were ok until the Fed meeting on May 4 may have to be revised.. As we said previously, the Fed has brought forward next months results... 50 and B/S details... What more can we expect from the Fed on May 4?... All the Fed governors, including the perma dove Brainard, are all pulling the same way... INFLATION IS PARAMOUNT... But as we said in a TV interview yesterday, and will probably say again today that the inflation is dominated by supply side issues... Which we see getting better based on ship and trucking data... Of course the energy and food situation, due to Ukraine and Russia, will not be resolved any time soon...and the Chinese lock-downs, which help with the price of oil, are not helpful across the goods spectrum...
Corporates... Spreads a little wider and new issues are coming to a halt as corporate treasurers try to figure out the next moves....only one issue yesterday... Secondary trading has dropped off to 27 billion in IG, off from the 45 billion we saw last week. A drop of 40%.
Where are we going?.. We expect choppy markets as the Fed dynamics and the street positions get adjusted... The DUMB position of the Fed, which we saw in a Bill Dudley op ed yesterday, is that the Fed needs to crush the economy to get a soft landing... Many, even our friends at Stifel, put out an equity overview where they think the Fed will start to ease again at the end of this year.. Doubtful... But our view is that the Fed will move more slowly and use the B/S to adjust rate rises by 4 25 basis moves... So it should be interesting...
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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My plan: watch SPX and QQQ. Above yesterday's high then I'll pick stocks to go long on - maybe AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, MSFT. Below 50-MA and I'll pick stocks to be short on - maybe AAPL, NVAX, TSLA. Either way, I'll be quick to take profits and play smaller sizes today.
Sometime soon I need to review D/E ratios of higher volatility large and mega cap stocks, because those may be hit hardest when rates do raise.
Sometime soon I need to review D/E ratios of higher volatility large and mega cap stocks, because those may be hit hardest when rates do raise.
What's the basic idea to the fed selling off the balance sheet?
Is it that it's bought by the market at large and therefore soaks up liquidity so less dollars chasing X amount of goods so it brings inflation down?
Is it that it's bought by the market at large and therefore soaks up liquidity so less dollars chasing X amount of goods so it brings inflation down?
Basically the Fed's been buying things for years now to prop up the market and economy. Stocks, treasuries, mortgages.jamey said:
What's the basic idea to the fed selling off the balance sheet?
Is it that it's bought by the market at large and therefore soaks up liquidity so less dollars chasing X amount of goods so it brings inflation down?
They're going to start selling them off (i.e., increasing supply).
Trying out some PENN calls at the open. Had an alert go off for $39, last few times its dipped this low it has recovered to the mid $40s at least. ATR is also -3 so looking for a bounce. Thinking Apr 22 or 29 calls at $40 to give myself some time. $45ish is a resistance line from my subpar charting skills
$UQuote:
Citigroup Initiates Coverage On Unity Software with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $125
running green, interesting. If you fade the first move, that says more downside to come.
ProgN said:$UQuote:
Citigroup Initiates Coverage On Unity Software with Buy Rating, Announces Price Target of $125
lol, makes me think of Chappelle show/ Rick James
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I just bought TSLA 1050 4/14C. Plan is to hold until $1087 or 9:30. Stop is $1046.5
Edit to change target sell price for the 5-SMA.
Edit to change target sell price for the 5-SMA.
Adding more SOFI and HIMX as long term holds
Going to try a MACD swing play on the 30m for $U
Edit, this is risky as it's currently under the 200ema at this timeframe. Ideally you'd want to be in the uptrend (above 200ema) before trying a MACD play. Tight stops.
Edit, this is risky as it's currently under the 200ema at this timeframe. Ideally you'd want to be in the uptrend (above 200ema) before trying a MACD play. Tight stops.
If you take /ES from the 3/15 low to the 3/30 high, we need to come back to 4380 to model T.
More pain to come?
/ES also looking H&S on the one day ten minute and today 5 minute.
More pain to come?
/ES also looking H&S on the one day ten minute and today 5 minute.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Bob Knights Liver said:
I just bought TSLA 1050 4/14C. Plan is to hold until $1087 or 9:30. Stop is $1046.5
Edit to change target sell price for the 5-SMA.
I'm tempted to sell half here if SPX continues down after hitting ORH resistance.
Edit I'll sell the other half at entry price if we get there. I don't want this trade to go from green to red.
Also - Happy Masters week, gents!
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VIX moving back up. 4474.6 is a big point here for SPX. Break that and we get an M. I might buy an SPX put or two if we do.
what a callout. rode one from 36.5 to 45Bob Knights Liver said:
I just bought TSLA 1050 4/14C. Plan is to hold until $1087 or 9:30. Stop is $1046.5
Edit to change target sell price for the 5-SMA.
Not sure whether to cut losses on SAVA or grab a few more shares.
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TSLA entering my "red zone" if you haven't sold the rest of your calls already, I'd think about it. We could revisit yesterday pretty quickly below here.
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Brian Earl Spilner said:
Not sure where to cut losses on SAVA or grab a few more shares.
Yeah, this is a tough spot. I'm not selling right now, hoping we get at least a model T retracement, but I'm resisting the urge to buy any more shares.
I'm riding that POS all the way to Valhalla!
I know volume is higher in a bullish market but things feel extra dead in this first hour this morning.
Brian Earl Spilner said:
Not sure whether to cut losses on SAVA or grab a few more shares.
Totally up to you but I sold yesterday. They have nothing coming soon.
I'll take the tax loss and buy in down lower for the return trip. Got a level at 25.05 then it's down to start of 2021 at 20ish.
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