McInnis - have you played around with that ATR levels study? Think it was you that brought it here anyway.
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Last: 2 hrs ago by Heineken-Ashi
only overlaid it on the screen Friday. Didn't have a chance to really watch it today. I want to better understand why he picks his trigger points where he does. I understand the move size, but the initial trigger is where I question whether or not it's a solid setup.FTAG 2000 said:
McInnis - have you played around with that ATR levels study? Think it was you that brought it here anyway.
Ccutamu said:
Anyone still bag holding SYN? Having a nice day at 43%.
It's Zacks new pump so could get interesting...
$SYN pic.twitter.com/LbAyuWMPW2
— Zack Morris (@MrZackMorris) March 21, 2022
Only 2 SPY scalps with levels posted earlier. Didn't play short side. Maybe tomorrow brings more movement.
Patient entry day for me with defined levels. Outside of the opening push pretty much an inside day on decent volume.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Thanks. Yeah, I threw it on a grid to watch in parallel to Fibs and ORB. Going to look at it tonight across some charts.McInnis 03 said:only overlaid it on the screen Friday. Didn't have a chance to really watch it today. I want to better understand why he picks his trigger points where he does. I understand the move size, but the initial trigger is where I question whether or not it's a solid setup.FTAG 2000 said:
McInnis - have you played around with that ATR levels study? Think it was you that brought it here anyway.
I did add to BAC April 14 45C at the dip into 61.8 Fib. Stayed above prior low so still intact.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Charismatic Megafauna
Joined:
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How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
You didn't like those crwd weeklies this morning? I rebought more april14 220s for 4.6 too, to replace some of the ones i sold fri for 8.5
Today was just awesome
Today was just awesome
A bunch of good calls on the board but I stayed pretty focused. I have more positions open that I normally like for swing/scalp so focused on SPY and managing ones I have on.Charismatic Megafauna said:
You didn't like those crwd weeklies this morning? I rebought more april14 220s for 4.6 too, to replace some of the ones i sold fri for 8.5
Today was just awesome
Congrats on CRWD....that stuff all seems to be moving with warning from the admin to be prepared to be hacked by Russians.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Interesting to see. I pulled the trigger on a JPM 4/1 140C call earlier todayFJ43 said:
I did add to BAC April 14 45C at the dip into 61.8 Fib. Stayed above prior low so still intact.
Similiar set up but looks like BAC may be a day ahead and over all better set up with it being above the 200 EMA and right at the 21EMA. I am going to keep an eye on this and might join in with you
So does the Model T analysis apply to the recent low and the high of the year set in early January? That's roughly 4818 to 4170. Would be the Model T at 4494 more or less. We got close to this today but not quite there.
Does this adaptation of Model T even apply?
Does this adaptation of Model T even apply?
BlueTaze said:Ccutamu said:
Anyone still bag holding SYN? Having a nice day at 43%.
It's Zacks new pump so could get interesting...$SYN pic.twitter.com/LbAyuWMPW2
— Zack Morris (@MrZackMorris) March 21, 2022
Bring it on Zack!
BaylorSpineGuy said:
So does the Model T analysis apply to the recent low and the high of the year set in early January? That's roughly 4818 to 4170. Would be the Model T at 4494 more or less. We got close to this today but not quite there.
Does this adaptation of Model T even apply?
It does. Your example is a good one.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
So does this mean that the Model T retrace has not yet been tested and the index will likely inch up further or does failure to retest so far suggest we take another leg down?
This is the part of it that is confusing to me.
This is the part of it that is confusing to me.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
So does this mean that the Model T retrace has not yet been tested and the index will likely inch up further or does failure to retest so far suggest we take another leg down?
This is the part of it that is confusing to me.
So ES on 1/3 had a high of 4808.25. The low on 2/23 was 4101.75. Model T would be 4455. The combination of the two /2. Which is the 50% mark. The 100EMA is about that level so using Model T the trade is from the pivot low back to Model T. You generally can trade it back to there. After that who knows. Does it confirm over Model T! Does it reject at Model T? That is the question.
The opposite is also true or a tradeable play. From the low to the high, back down to Model T. If it holds Model T typically bullish back up to some levels. If it loses Model T then bearish to a lower level.
Model T works much like Fib 50%. Fib has levels in between. But the top, bottom and half way are very close.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Let's give SYN a go. Taking 1500 shares in the 50K account. Stop loss 0.3
Yes, along with the 50% fib, we also have 200MA on ES 4465, this is an important area overall, so makes sense to be basing around here.
2y-10y spread is down to 0.14 tonight. Bond markets officially on edge after hawkish Powell comments today. Futures selling off early and rejecting right around 4455-4460 range.
Coupled with a doji candle on SPY today at top of an advance, a reversal trend back down likely beginning soon.
I got stopped out trying to go long on NVDA s this morning. I'm gonna let the dust settle for a day or two before trying anything else. Must avoid FOMO.
As an aside, I think generally the banks need to be strong to support a big bull run/rally but they look relatively weak on the whole, and even their recent rally wasn't on that high of volume.
Coupled with a doji candle on SPY today at top of an advance, a reversal trend back down likely beginning soon.
I got stopped out trying to go long on NVDA s this morning. I'm gonna let the dust settle for a day or two before trying anything else. Must avoid FOMO.
As an aside, I think generally the banks need to be strong to support a big bull run/rally but they look relatively weak on the whole, and even their recent rally wasn't on that high of volume.
I ran another RDR (Red Dog Reversal) scan just now and came up with 35 hits with the below being the most interesting (no particular order). I'm not acting on any but will monitor for the next couple days to see how they do.
VIA
TLYS (this one has come up more than once now)
HBB
CINC
AMLX (looks to be moving AH)
PLCE
VIA
TLYS (this one has come up more than once now)
HBB
CINC
AMLX (looks to be moving AH)
PLCE
Futures are down a quarter percent. Slow down on the doom scrolling.
Not intended for doom. It's showing possible signs of reversal. Meant for enlightenment.
Nobody knows what will happen tomorrow.
Long commodities, long agriculture and everything will be all right!
Long commodities, long agriculture and everything will be all right!
Speaking of long commodities, my darling $DAR dropped the MOAB today in terms of their business line.
Got assigned on ZIM. That's okay because it was worth the shot and we made money.
Mornun!
Pretty much green around the horn.
US = green
EU = green
Asia = green
VIX = 23.27
Slight gap up then to yesterday's opening push high. Will watch if stays up here to play a gap fill short scalp. But if gets over 446.98 I think we are headed for 449.50 & 451.30....ish. Want to see 440.43-.48 hold.
Actually would love a back test of the 50EMA to play long off of.
Will focus on SPY scalping and might dip my toes in the water on IWM out to next week 212-215 range.
Trade wisely!
Pretty much green around the horn.
US = green
EU = green
Asia = green
VIX = 23.27
Slight gap up then to yesterday's opening push high. Will watch if stays up here to play a gap fill short scalp. But if gets over 446.98 I think we are headed for 449.50 & 451.30....ish. Want to see 440.43-.48 hold.
Actually would love a back test of the 50EMA to play long off of.
Will focus on SPY scalping and might dip my toes in the water on IWM out to next week 212-215 range.
Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
LOW
This is on my call watch list. Will be looking at calls either for this week, 4/1 or 4/14. If this week ATM+ a couple. If 4/1 or 4/14 most likely 240s.
Retraced to ATR mean.
Could argue an inverse H&S
Ping ponging fibs. Model T proving tough.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Holy S***. $ZIM , a usually, low volume shipping company had the most options contracts traded today. More than $AAPL - $TSLA - $NVDA - $AMD etc.
— 🅿️rofit Ⓜ️aker (@ProfitMaker_X) March 21, 2022
1.4M were calls and only 19k were puts. Talk about unusual and VERY BULLISH!
Via: @unusual_whales pic.twitter.com/y2AWFDXZi3
Seems there may be more lurkers here than we thought ;-)
ZIM down the div amount this morning
From TOS news feed
Today, Benzinga's options scanner spotted 266 uncommon options trades for ZIM Integrated Shipping.
This isn't normal.
The overall sentiment of these big-money traders is split between 35% bullish and 64%, bearish.
ZIM down 17% in PM
Today, Benzinga's options scanner spotted 266 uncommon options trades for ZIM Integrated Shipping.
This isn't normal.
The overall sentiment of these big-money traders is split between 35% bullish and 64%, bearish.
ZIM down 17% in PM
bhanacik said:
I ran another RDR (Red Dog Reversal) scan just now and came up with 35 hits with the below being the most interesting (no particular order). I'm not acting on any but will monitor for the next couple days to see how they do.
VIA
TLYS (this one has come up more than once now)
HBB
CINC
AMLX (looks to be moving AH)
PLCE
The hits all look like bearish RDR. I didn't check them closely but quick glance these do not meet the criteria on a bullish RDR. Some may not qualify for an RDR either direction.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
It's trading ex-div, that's why it's down this morningjimmo said:
From TOS news feed
Today, Benzinga's options scanner spotted 266 uncommon options trades for ZIM Integrated Shipping.
This isn't normal.
The overall sentiment of these big-money traders is split between 35% bullish and 64%, bearish.
ZIM down 17% in PM
I took my 4% "run up to dividend ex date" gain before close yesterday and will move on.
thanks
Correction: It's trading ex-div, but it's not down. You will get the dividend and it's actually trading higher PM, so you're having a great morning with your coffee and iPad.jimmo said:
thanks
Bond Bloodbath Continues as Powell Throws Fuel on Fire...Equities Resilient
Overnight we had another bloodbath in treasuries after yesterdays record move across the curve... 10's broke through our 2.33 support to hit 2.357...2 years broke through our 2.16 support to hit 2.195... And 5 years got to our support of 2.39 and held... All have now come back marginally and we continue to use 2.16 2 years, 2.39 5 years and 2.33 10 years as magnets...but for how long?... With Powell throwing fuel on the fire we see that GOLDMAN SACHS IS NOW CALLING FOR TWO BACK TO BACK 50 BASIS HIKES IN MAY AND JUNE... The BOND VIGILANTES ARE BACK and we said as such in a Reuters interview yesterday... With the Fed backing away and dealers unable to support markets, given capital and balance sheet constraints, there is no one to support the rampant selling of treasury futures and the short base that is expanding daily...
Rates... Front burner ..in the last two days we have seen 2 years moves 30 basis... 28 basis on 5 years...and 22 in 10 years... Even the long bond has broken its recent high of 2.52 and is now 2.55... We do not see a near term catalyst to reverse the moves... At least until next week... ...
While treasuries continue their free fall CORPORATES CONTINUE TO COME TO MARKET... We saw 16 billion come to market yesterday led by Glaxo...order books were oversubscribed by over 4 times...new issue concessions were a tad over 10 basis... This is consistent with equity markets doing better...
Equities are near their overnight highs... Equities started overnight lower and hit their lows around 1 am.. Then moved 35 points higher... We are still close to there... And even through the Powell speech yesterday the S+P rallied back to flat... Equities like the fact that Powell is on top of inflation...Meanwhile El-Erian blasted the Fed again this morning saying the bond market is sending a message to the Fed that they are no longer credible towards inflation... So we wonder what he thinks they should do...
Economy and Recession...YIELD CURVE...The US economy is not going into recession any time soon.. The yield curve continues to get flatter with 3/5/7 all higher yield than 10 years...2/10 remains at mid teens, about 17... And 5/30 about the same... Powell said it clearly yesterday...for POWELL AN INVERSION IS FED FUNDS TO 18 MONTHS... While he looks at the rest of the curve, he defined inversion yesterday... A colleague wrote a very detailed report on curve inversions and the history or predicting recessions... His work leads to looking at 3 months to 10 years... That is nowhere near inversion, 50 basis versus 2.33... As for the view that inversion leads to recession, we point out that the current moves to inversion in the curve are soaring inflation fears and not that will predict a recession...
Overnight we had another bloodbath in treasuries after yesterdays record move across the curve... 10's broke through our 2.33 support to hit 2.357...2 years broke through our 2.16 support to hit 2.195... And 5 years got to our support of 2.39 and held... All have now come back marginally and we continue to use 2.16 2 years, 2.39 5 years and 2.33 10 years as magnets...but for how long?... With Powell throwing fuel on the fire we see that GOLDMAN SACHS IS NOW CALLING FOR TWO BACK TO BACK 50 BASIS HIKES IN MAY AND JUNE... The BOND VIGILANTES ARE BACK and we said as such in a Reuters interview yesterday... With the Fed backing away and dealers unable to support markets, given capital and balance sheet constraints, there is no one to support the rampant selling of treasury futures and the short base that is expanding daily...
Rates... Front burner ..in the last two days we have seen 2 years moves 30 basis... 28 basis on 5 years...and 22 in 10 years... Even the long bond has broken its recent high of 2.52 and is now 2.55... We do not see a near term catalyst to reverse the moves... At least until next week... ...
While treasuries continue their free fall CORPORATES CONTINUE TO COME TO MARKET... We saw 16 billion come to market yesterday led by Glaxo...order books were oversubscribed by over 4 times...new issue concessions were a tad over 10 basis... This is consistent with equity markets doing better...
Equities are near their overnight highs... Equities started overnight lower and hit their lows around 1 am.. Then moved 35 points higher... We are still close to there... And even through the Powell speech yesterday the S+P rallied back to flat... Equities like the fact that Powell is on top of inflation...Meanwhile El-Erian blasted the Fed again this morning saying the bond market is sending a message to the Fed that they are no longer credible towards inflation... So we wonder what he thinks they should do...
Economy and Recession...YIELD CURVE...The US economy is not going into recession any time soon.. The yield curve continues to get flatter with 3/5/7 all higher yield than 10 years...2/10 remains at mid teens, about 17... And 5/30 about the same... Powell said it clearly yesterday...for POWELL AN INVERSION IS FED FUNDS TO 18 MONTHS... While he looks at the rest of the curve, he defined inversion yesterday... A colleague wrote a very detailed report on curve inversions and the history or predicting recessions... His work leads to looking at 3 months to 10 years... That is nowhere near inversion, 50 basis versus 2.33... As for the view that inversion leads to recession, we point out that the current moves to inversion in the curve are soaring inflation fears and not that will predict a recession...
Thanks AustinAg. Really enjoy these every morning
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