Y'all. I'm toying with broken wing butterflies (skip strike butterflies) as I have a bullish thesis on UPST right now. This is for next week and the graphic explains it, but I'm trying to get fills on broken put flies (break the low side) which would risk a max loss of $400 to potentially gain $3K plus in a jackpot situation. But, if the price moves too bullish, worst case scenario then is you keep the credit you've taken in on the placing of the trade.

Stats below if anyone wants to follow: This is for 5 spreads, divide the totals by 5 to get the net per fly.

I

Update:Not getting fills but I'm going to let this play out a bit.

I am surprised at lack of volatility so far.

ATOS... I think this was a 30K play last year some time that ran up to $9. It just broke the downtrend line from June 21 when it was $9 and September 21 when it $4.20ish. It has had 4 nice days in a row (up 42%) to break the trend. Any of you more experienced guys want to take a look. I can't find any news but it looks ready to move after basing for the last couple of months or so.

The rest of the yield curve is "screaming" (to borrow from Waller's parlance) that The Fed is about to commit a major policy error as 3/5s, 3s10s, 5s10s, 7s10s, and 20s30s are all now inverted...

www.zerohedge.com

can someone explain how the stock market is shrugging off a significant chance of recession as well as the highest inflation in 40 years?

GOOGL 2800C next week lotto, looks fantastic if market runs (a little out of my league though for entry price)

oh, I'll run a vertical on it

$ZIM Just bear in mind the ex div date is 3/22 in case that factors in your decisions.

in

McInnis 03 said:

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When you can't buy it, mcfly it.

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you name the strikes dog, I'm down!

50K account: sell next week OXY 60P for $4. I want the shares but will gladly take premium. This puts entry at $56

50K account:

Sell to open 1 CWH 29.5P at 0.35

McInnis 03 said:

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Y'all. I'm toying with broken wing butterflies (skip strike butterflies) as I have a bullish thesis on UPST right now. This is for next week and the graphic explains it, but I'm trying to get fills on broken put flies (break the low side) which would risk a max loss of $400 to potentially gain $3K plus in a jackpot situation. But, if the price moves too bullish, worst case scenario then is you keep the credit you've taken in on the placing of the trade.

Stats below if anyone wants to follow: This is for 5 spreads, divide the totals by 5 to get the net per fly.

I

Update:Not getting fills but I'm going to let this play out a bit.

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I'm not getting fills, that tells me this play was freaking perfect this morning. DAMMIT.

BREwmaster said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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When you can't buy it, mcfly it.

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you name the strikes dog, I'm down!

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Everything I'm sizing up with a broken wing is about a 9:1 potential return, let me look at regulars......

With something like GOOGL, that can move 100+ pts in a day, it's hard for me to fall in love with a routine butterfly because it can shoot right past your target and leave you with little........(I guess I should be more realistic because "little" may be 30-40% return in a week)

lot of call flow on PBR today

BREwmaster said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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When you can't buy it, mcfly it.

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you name the strikes dog, I'm down!

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Thinner than I'd like with GOOGL, but I see value so I'll take it.

3/25
2775c +1
2800c -2
2825c +1

Bid $1.70
Max value at expiry $25

That's ridiculous return and if we just get a move our direction the next 5 days we can flip this for 2x-4x IMO.

Philip J Fry said:

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If we hold today, SAVA 1 month MACD turns bullish. Last time it did this, we hit the 50s.

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I don't want to hold extra shares over the weekend, but if this holds and we look green after 9:30am Monday, I'll buy some additional SAVA shares to ride this up!

Biggest options expiration ever could be controlling the prices here. I don't think we'll see real price trends until next week.

What's the consensus on tech sector for long term? Still the best in terms of growth potential ?

Thrax said:

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What's the consensus on tech sector for long term? Still the best in terms of growth potential ?

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While some think we've seen a short term bottom, you have to think with rates adjusting upwards, and in some circles they think more than expected, that's going to kill some parts of growth.

Mind you that AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, etc, aren't growth companies so in my personal opinion you'll still see some of the mega caps do OK in Tech.

Thrax said:

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What's the consensus on tech sector for long term? Still the best in terms of growth potential ?

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I like the software companies better than the hardware companies. They usually have better margins and can scale up quickly.

That being said
I bought some hardware companies last month on discount.
They all run net profit margins that I like.

Mu
QCOM
Klac
Amat
Qrvo
SWKS

Which software companies ?

RGS with emergence out of C&H pattern. Needs to close above 2.02 to keep momentum going.

Not much resistance overhead up to 2.50 or 2.60.

Thrax said:

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Which software companies ?

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I will catch a lot of flack for this, but I bought fb on the recent dip. It is trading at levels of a bank stock.

I bought and sold orcl on the dip as well. Made a small profit and kept on trading.

I primarily buy low pe high net margin companies.

Is there a downward play we can look to with this HUGE $17 dividend $ZIM is handing out?

Volume building on MOS again, looks like it could pop at the end of the day here

Again, where's the vol?

McInnis 03 said:

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Is there a downward play we can look to with this HUGE $17 dividend $ZIM is handing out?

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n/m

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Again, where's the vol?

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We're already near max pain. Nobody wants to hold lol ng or short over the weekend. We may get a flurry at close, but no clue which direction.

I'm probably doing too many of these.

This is a broken wing

Theory: BULLISH
Tick: $NVDA
3/25
277.5p +1
275p -2
270p +1

$1.42 CREDIT (this is what you get to place this trade)
Max pay at expiry = $2.50 + $1.42 credit you receive
Break even = NVDA $271.08 at expiry, above that you profit.
Max loss: $1.08