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McInnis 03
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 1:23p, 3/16/22
AG
Honestly, it's not. It's a lot of effort for not much return, and honestly the R/R isn't good, but it works for me today.

EDIT: But if SPX finishes > 4220 and < 4255 my opinion will change a tad.
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Ag CPA
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 1:24p, 3/16/22
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
Holy shlt they went incredibly hawkish. Six more rate hikes this year and three in 2023.

They have just signaled that a recession will be needed to stave off inflation.

Invest appropriately
I agree that a recession is necessary at this point, time to rip the Band-Aid off and get it over with.
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Red Pear Luke (BCS)
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1:25p, 3/16/22
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AG
Wonder how long it will take Ally to up their HYSA rates? Hopefully soon.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to Spoony Love • 1:26p, 3/16/22
AG
Spoony Love said:
What if Fed ain't going to raise no rates?
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Bonfire1996
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1:27p, 3/16/22
AG
Jerome and the FED are insane! They just signaled to the markets that they intend to TRIPLE the debt service on America's national debt. From around $500 billion to over $1.5 trillion.

In scarier terms: from 8% of the federal budget to 25% of the federal budget.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 1:27p, 3/16/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Honestly, it's not. It's a lot of effort for not much return, and honestly the R/R isn't good, but it works for me today.

EDIT: But if SPX finishes > 4220 and < 4255 my opinion will change a tad.
Gotcha. I was working with the 4310 number.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 1:28p, 3/16/22
AG
Bonfire1996 said:
Jerome and the FED are insane! They just signaled to the markets that they intend to TRIPLE the debt service on America's national debt. From around $500 billion to over $1.5 trillion.

In scarier terms: from 8% of the federal budget to 25% of the federal budget.
Good way to tank the market, tank the dollar, and set the stage for CBDC and full authoritarian control of the people.
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Carlo4
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1:29p, 3/16/22
AG
got to love the instant 1.2% drop in the Nasdaq....
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planoaggie123
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 1:30p, 3/16/22
AG
What do you believe they should have done? I have no idea so just asking. Seems like I hear more about how artificially low rates are and it cannot be sustained. Do you disagree or do you think they should have been more "slow" to raise over the next year or two? Did the market have any of this baked in?
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Thrax
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1:32p, 3/16/22
What the **** is going on
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1:32p, 3/16/22
mazag08
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 1:32p, 3/16/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Agree with this and 340 is the major support of the neckline. Mazag mentioned shorting it it goes back to 34500. If there is a close of above 34500, I would consider that a fairly bullish indicator and break of the H&S pattern.
This is what I was seeing when I said that..

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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to mazag08 • 1:45p, 3/16/22
Gotcha! Very nice. Just curious your lettered lines touch both the channel and the trend but the candles don't go the entire extent of that move….I'm not super familiar with EW, aside from what you bring to the table. Curious for more insight.

About to go and do a C2-T2 fusion. Will catch up with everyone this evening….
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 1:46p, 3/16/22
AG
McInnis 03 said:
McInnis 03 said:
McInnis 03 said:
Today's SPX 4260p / 4360c is my little play here, just give me A move.
Turned the put into a spread to cover most of both positions, now if I can get a bounce the other way we'll spread the calls and take home the moolah.
And now both spreads are turned into Iron Condors to try and squeeze a few more coins out of Mr. Market.

I'm ridiculous.
Ok, add another net credit butterfly. FEED ME
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 1:47p, 3/16/22
AG
Y'all

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FTAG 2000
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1:51p, 3/16/22
AG
Look at that model T on the SPX today (green line is the 50% Fib / Model-T).


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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Spoony Love • 1:53p, 3/16/22
Spoony Love said:
Spoony Love said:
What if Fed ain't going to raise no rates?
I'm here now Boss. <LMAOtoo>

No escaping for me; however, no escaping for Mr. Powell either. I hope they got the Federal Programs already slotted for which ones get spending cuts.

If the full bevy of future hikes are true, this is going to be hilarious for our Congress of drunken spending sailors when someone decides to tell them the net effects of rate hikes. Maybe Congress will belly-laugh and decide that taxes aren't high enough....because...you know...spending.

I can't get to tax-free fast enough.
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mazag08
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 1:53p, 3/16/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Gotcha! Very nice. Just curious your lettered lines touch both the channel and the trend but the candles don't go the entire extent of that move….I'm not super familiar with EW, aside from what you bring to the table. Curious for more insight.

About to go and do a C2-T2 fusion. Will catch up with everyone this evening….
Ignore the letters and numbers. Likely an alternate wave count or something. Usually I hide those for quick images like this. This was not an EW charting. Just a general "throw channels up and see what sticks".

Those channels were extremely unofficial, but downward diagonals will often times take shape in uniform ways until they bust through one way or another. That's why I was watching the next upward high. If it touched I was going to be looking for hard reversal and if I got it, was going to buy puts.
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Carlo4
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2:00p, 3/16/22
AG
Nasdaq already regained today's high from the big drop from the meeting...




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mazag08
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 2:00p, 3/16/22
AG
And those channels ARE based on direct touches of price. Sometimes my trend lines hide them. I don't make up price levels. If it doesn't touch, I don't use it. Click on the picture to zoom in if you can't see the wicks.

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Carlo4
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2:02p, 3/16/22
AG
I posted about EPAM right when the war broke out. Anyone jump into it? They were $700 a share prior to the Russian troop buildup and plummeted to $170 a share once the war started. They are now back up to $270.

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Prophet00
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2:04p, 3/16/22
AG
PETZ going vertical.
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tlepoC
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2:06p, 3/16/22
AG
Hate to mention yet another name but MOMO up 50+% today. Earnings on 3/24. Tons o'volume.
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McInnis 03
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2:06p, 3/16/22
AG
This feels like positions getting settled for a dump overnight
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 2:07p, 3/16/22
mazag08
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2:09p, 3/16/22
AG
For those that want to see fib levels in use to support my channels..

Usually in a 3-wave move, the 3rd wave will target the 100% - 123.6% extension of the 1st from the bottom of the 2nd. Above 123.6% and I get bullish. Reverse from that point and I start to get bearish.

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TecRecAg
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In reply to tlepoC • 2:16p, 3/16/22
AG
I'd have to go back and find it in this thread, but I'm pretty sure I said I was going to get a "NOMO MOMO" tattoo at one point.
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Tumble Weed
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2:17p, 3/16/22
Mrna getting jiggy with it. Just a little higher and I will hit the sell button.
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MaroonDynasty
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2:27p, 3/16/22
Didn't realize MOMO was under $5 before today.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Carlo4 • 2:38p, 3/16/22
AG
Carlo4 said:
I posted about EPAM right when the war broke out. Anyone jump into it? They were $700 a share prior to the Russian troop buildup and plummeted to $170 a share once the war started. They are now back up to $270.

I've traded it five times over the past two weeks.

Sold out this morning before FOMC (rode from 220-250ish, small).

Wild move today.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 2:42p, 3/16/22
Bonfire1996 said:
Jerome and the FED are insane! They just signaled to the markets that they intend to TRIPLE the debt service on America's national debt. From around $500 billion to over $1.5 trillion.

In scarier terms: from 8% of the federal budget to 25% of the federal budget.
Powell: Rate hikes? Yes, this is going to cost more.

Congress: How much?

Powell: Might want to think about cutting Medicare or cost-sharing.

Congress: Medicare is already cost-shared.

Powell: Okay, then cut funding.

Congress: We can't do that!

Powell: Okay, then raise taxes to bring in more revenue.

Congress: We can't do that! It's an election year.

Powell: Okay. Work with me. We'll have 2 more quick hikes of a 1/2 point each and kill the stock market. You guys get prepared for another QE spending round. Once the stock market is dead, we'll announce to drop rates while you guys are sending checks and I'm printing recovery dollars. You'll look like hero's and get re-elected and I'll be the guy that saved the economy.

Congress: Okay. Got it.
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ProgN
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2:50p, 3/16/22
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Bonfire1996
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In reply to planoaggie123 • 2:52p, 3/16/22
AG
planoaggie123 said:
What do you believe they should have done? I have no idea so just asking. Seems like I hear more about how artificially low rates are and it cannot be sustained. Do you disagree or do you think they should have been more "slow" to raise over the next year or two? Did the market have any of this baked in?

Man I don't know. The FED has a tough job managing fiscal policy with a Congress who wants to test Modern Monetary Theory in real time.

If Congress and Dem President weren't massive deficit spenders, they could have raised rates four times over the next two years and let inflation destroy demand, and prices would correct. But that's not possible in a Democrat government.

Bottom line, the FED decreased GDP growth guidance to 2.8% and said we are still raising rates nine more times. You signal nine rate hikes when GDP growth is touching 5-6-7% to cool it off. You don't signal nine rate hikes while simultaneously decreasing GDP growth guidance well below inflation. That is 100% telling the world, "We think a recession is necessary to stop inflation."

It puts a bow tie on the complete and total incompetence of our central bankers.
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MaroonDynasty
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2:53p, 3/16/22
So today is the exit plan for all the Chinese stocks?
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Bonfire1996
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2:55p, 3/16/22
AG
I want to make sure everyone realizes these facts:

1. The FED signaled today that they intend to slow the economy down faster and further than an already slowing pace.
2. Inflation is still rising at this time.

They are risking purposeful stagflation, the unholiest of unholies.
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