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24,723,581 Views | 233432 Replies | Last: 1 min ago by EliteZags
bhanacik
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AG
Quick question for BSG or anyone else looking to short or buy puts on the broad market. It was mentioned recently about buying puts on DIA.

I too agree with the outlook of a broader market pullback and was looking for the best way to act upon that and came upon SPXS, which tries to be 3x the inverse of the S&P. My thought was that this looks to be a good way to further leverage the movement of the index

Does anyone have any experience in buying an inverse fund like SPXS? positives/negatives?
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
They are great for anticipating (or hedging) moves in the short term, but they are not for long holds. If the market stays flat leveraged etfs go down, if the market goes the wrong way the leveraged etf goes way down.
Dan Scott
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AG
nm
FJ43
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Buying CIDM here AH. I'll just sit on it.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Don't forget the fed is tomorrow
FJ43
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:

FTAG 2000 said:

McInnis 03 said:

This is happening faster than I anticipated......The Yuan is quickly gaining steam as a reserve currency, eh?



Almost like it was planned.
Go back to U.S. fossil fuel independence.
Allow China to promote Yuan and get ready for a default.
Yuan as a reserve currency is akin to allowing Russia to supply 40% of your NatGas needs in the winter.
Lib policy is working to injure this country, knowingly.
Preach it Farmer!!!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

McInnis 03
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:

Don't forget the fed is tomorrow


Predictions?

Chop in the morning....
30 seconds before fed announcement I encourage you to watch spy options. When they shut the algos off you'll see it, spreads get big.
Fake move
Real move

I think they run it up (TOTAL GUESS)
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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McInnis 03 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Don't forget the fed is tomorrow


Predictions?

Chop in the morning....
30 seconds before fed announcement I encourage you to watch spy options. When they shut the algos off you'll see it, spreads get big.
Fake move
Real move

I think they run it up (TOTAL GUESS)


FJ43
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We have some brilliant people on this board gents. Selfless people offering it up to everyone here for free.

Soak it up. Special place.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
McInnis 03 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Don't forget the fed is tomorrow


Predictions?

Chop in the morning....
30 seconds before fed announcement I encourage you to watch spy options. When they shut the algos off you'll see it, spreads get big.
Fake move
Real move

I think they run it up (TOTAL GUESS)
no idea on stock movement. 0.25 rate increase I think.
Brewmaster
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AG
McInnis 03 said:

$30,000 Millionaire said:

Don't forget the fed is tomorrow


Predictions?

Chop in the morning....
30 seconds before fed announcement I encourage you to watch spy options. When they shut the algos off you'll see it, spreads get big.
Fake move
Real move

I think they run it up (TOTAL GUESS)
yep yep yep, I'd love a fake dump/ bear trap, that would also give some fuel to get and stay past 4260.

matches seasonality too.
FJ43
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Try to ignore all my lines.

Notice the white EMA line. That's the 12EMA. We haven't held that more than a day since 2/10.

The two arrows are my keys. Both downtrends, reclaim the 21 then the 50 and at SRs.

Doesn't mean I stay out of the sandbox but for me I'm cautious until trigger 1 then trigger 2 I go in the paint. Until then it's scaling in and trades.

Death cross still in play imo. Light blue 50EMA heading for the red 200EMA.



Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

Brewmaster
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AG
FJ43 said:


Buying CIDM here AH. I'll just sit on it.
I've been watching this one the past couple days, great spot to buy, I'll nibble some too in the a.m.
Brewmaster
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AG
4290 is right in there too... that will be tough to crack, but crack it and I think we have ourselves a rally.
FJ43
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House gets it next.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
bhanacik said:

Quick question for BSG or anyone else looking to short or buy puts on the broad market. It was mentioned recently about buying puts on DIA.

I too agree with the outlook of a broader market pullback and was looking for the best way to act upon that and came upon SPXS, which tries to be 3x the inverse of the S&P. My thought was that this looks to be a good way to further leverage the movement of the index

Does anyone have any experience in buying an inverse fund like SPXS? positives/negatives?
how much trading and investing experience do you have?

If not much, use SH instead. It's more forgiving if you're wrong. I trade UPRO and SPXU, but I enter on confirmation of a technical pattern, I scale out as I go, and when I'm wrong, I GTFO immediately.

Let me do some math to help. I'm going to guess an ATM DIA put a couple months out is probably $20, or $2,000. If DIA rallies from here, worst case, you're out $2,000 if you let it go to max loss. But if you get that big 10% move in the index and you held to expiration, you're going to get a 50% gain and that option will be worth $3,300 or so at expiration, more while there is still premium left. This is not how I would play it. I would do an out of the money put debit spread probably 325/300. It will cost less, probably half as much and you can unload it at any time with a down draft.

If you bought SDOW at $31.5 and you got a 10% move down in the index, this would go to roughly $40 or $10 per share. Your cost would be $3,150 to buy 100 shares to get that same $1,000 profit move. The benefit is no theta decay, but if we ripped 5% up from here, guess what, you're losing 15%. I personally wouldn't hold a ton of SDOW/SPXS/SPXU/SQQQ waiting for a move that may never materialize.

Obviously your strategy may work. I've experienced losses before with a mindset like this.

To buy (or short) the shares for the same move, it would be $33K.
FJ43
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Just a guess but if you went short ATM or + a couple for this weeks expiry for a trade I think you make money. May rally but think you exit profitable if you bought close to todays top.

Execute!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I'm traveling and don't have my normal setup, so this will have to do.

BaylorSpineGuy
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Is he talking in the morning or afternoon?

For the record, that guy has an uncanny ability to let the markets rip on his very words. Almost always goes up when he talks. Alternatively, if he head fakes and drops a 50 bp spike, it could go down.

Some may be thinking his plan got leaked and that's why we were bouncing today, but the volume today was low and the pattern of money movement was not reliable, so I'm guessing it was mostly day traders today. Also, I think spreads were a little wide today.

Will be curious to see what happens.
BaylorSpineGuy
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Agree with this and 340 is the major support of the neckline. Mazag mentioned shorting it it goes back to 34500. If there is a close of above 34500, I would consider that a fairly bullish indicator and break of the H&S pattern.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
normally its the afternoon with a data release followed by a presser. I'm traveling and probably won't do any trading. Anything I do will be between 8:30 and 9:30.
lobwedgephil
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His plan didn't get leaked, he testified to congress that it would be 25 basis points. Now, if there are surprises, we will certainly go down. But if as expected, could get a nice three day rally before the Friday witching fun.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
340 is the weekly 8 EMA. If it rejects off of there, I think that's a good place to short from. It's only 1% up from here ,so it could be tomorrow. I can see why Maz would pick that area. If it establishes above 340 for 1-2 closes, the bull is back on for a bit, target 358.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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RDR there on DIA. Even with Fed it might be an easy trade to the upside. Use today's open as the stop?
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
Found this to be interesting re: Covid, Omicron and BA2 variant. Hong Kong didn't have an Omicron wave. If this holds, contributes to the idea that BA2 will fizzle out fast.

FJ43
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Bob Knights Liver said:

RDR there on DIA. Even with Fed it might be an easy trade to the upside. Use today's open as the stop?
Not a true RDR. Has to open above prior close, trade below the prior low then close above.


Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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Remind me again….RDR?
FJ43
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This could also be interpreted as a bear flagging pattern.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Remind me again….RDR?


On a downtrend you will generally have 2 or more days of down with the RDR in play when the next day opening above the prior close, then trades below the prior low, then reclaimed the prior close and closes above that.

The same can be true for an RDR in an uptrend but turns bear vs bull.

Make sense?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

FJ43
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Remind me again….RDR?
Tried to find you one and had to look at a bunch of charts.

RDR = Red Dog Reversal.

Here ya go...today on DKNG

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

HoustonAg2014
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AG
Always always goes up when who speaks?
BaylorSpineGuy
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Yes makes sense, I just can't remember the name for the abbreviation….

Red Dog reversal or something?
BaylorSpineGuy
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Powell. He is the market whisperer. Him and Sleepy Joe.
FJ43
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BaylorSpineGuy said:

Yes makes sense, I just can't remember the name for the abbreviation….

Red Dog reversal or something?
Exactly. Chart and example just above for you.

According to the RDR you could pattern wise take DKNG long probably back to the $17s and up.

Matter of fact I may just take DKNG calls out a month or so tomorrow morning after finding one of those. Nothing is for sure but typically a repeatable patten and Redler's go to play.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

BaylorSpineGuy
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A couple observations…..the low of last Tuesday has not been retested on DIA. It was the lowest close of the year. Moreover, the lowest point on the chart all year (gap down to open on Monday after OpEx) has also not been retested.

I think one or both of these lows need to successfully test to prove we have cleared a bottom. Just my opinion.

Classically, lows on a chart are a double bottom or the second bottom is slightly lower than the first to shake out weak hands. Usually there is good volume above the break of the pivot line or occasionally on backrest rally with good volume, one can be confident a low has been set.

Please correct me if I'm wrong. Lots of superior technical traders to me on here!
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