Well.....Mr WWR

Needs to hold here or 1.34 might be in the cards. I did add some shares yesterday.

CLOV

We looking at a 30k special? Back to ATR mean yesterday. Pivots here and could be a swing. Notice volume.

Wild Overnight Moves as Chinese Equities Crushed Another 5%..10 Years Reach 2.17

It was another wild ride overnight as Chinese equities were crushed again... Overnight the Hang Sang was down another 6% while the CSI 300 was down 4.57%, both clearly in BEAR MARKETS... Where is the Chinese Plunge Protection team?...Chinese economic numbers were off the charts great... With Industrial Production up 87% above expectations... And RETAIL SALES MORE THAN DOUBLED EXPECTATIONS TO 12.2%... But that does not matter... Large parts of China are in Covid Economic Lock-down... And the fears that sanctions are coming China's way because of Russia is a real fear... Meanwhile the Fed meeting starts today.

Inflation is the Fed's number one problem, but Global recession fears is starting to move up the ladder... Today we get PPI where the YOY expectation is double digits at 10%... And the oil prices and food prices spikes from the Russian invasion have not hit yet... The good news, if there is any, is that OIL PRICES ARE DOWN ANOTHER 8% THIS MORNING AFTER REACHING 130 LAST WEEK WE SEE THEM NOW UNDER 95... This is more to do with the Chinese shutdown as talks between Russia and the Ukraine do not seem to be going anywhere... SO WHAT IS THE FED TO DO TOMORROW... RAISE 25 BASIS..WIRP IS STILL 90-10 FOR 25... And about 7 rate rises for the year... The question is whether Powell will blink on the economic turmoil and uncertainty, and look at the tightening financial conditions, where Junk suffered its worst loss in two years yesterday... We think Powell starts to rein in the aggressive rate talk... But can he?

We have revised our rates supports due to the fact that many of them were taken out overnight... 10 years got to just under 2.17.. Which is our new support, with 2.23 behind that and 2.33 behind that..Bill Gross said in an interview last week that if the 10 year treasury closes about 2.14, the 30 year bull market is over.... 5 years to 2.13, where we had support at 2.11... Now 2.22... And 2 years got to 1.86, where we have support at 1.89... The liquidity remains poor across the depth of the treasury market... And futures, while better, is still not great.

Equities.... We said at the end of the year that the bottom of the next move down in risk should be around the March Fed meeting...QE is gone and the FED STARTS TO RAISE RATES TOMORROW...picking tops and bottoms is tough, but with the Nasdaq and Russell in bear territory, and the S+P down about 15% from its high, Thursday morning should see some life... But we do fear the RISK PARITY CROWD, WHO HAS BEEN GETTING CRUSHED BEING LONG TREASURIES AND EQUITIES...it clearly has not worked...the Risk Parity ETF, RPAR, saw the worst draw-down YTD yesterday, just above Major Risk at 23.23...

Overnight equities had a wild ride due to China... But the ranges were more muted, which in our view shows that buyers are there... S+P futures went from a high of 4182 to a low of 4129 at 5 am , to 4164, where they are now... About unchanged... Again we think we are close to a bottom... If we are wrong we will lose some money...

Fed meeting starts today... Ends tomorrow... It will be 25... But expect a sea change for markets if we view this Fed, and Powell in particular, correctly...

Overnight levels breached some important spots but have reclaimed to come back up. Could be the "Fake breakdown, then rally" behavior.....hopeful.

Love,
Permabullccinis

EDIT:Literally as I typed this ES and NQ both bumpin up with a proud 5 minute candle on PPI release

Expecting a Green Day today. Let's see.

I think the bottom is in for tech. I'm selling some of my value stocks (ABBV) and hitting GOOGL.

McInnis 03 said:

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This is happening faster than I anticipated......The Yuan is quickly gaining steam as a reserve currency, eh?

JUST IN - Saudi Arabia considers accepting #Yuan instead of #Dollars for Chinese oil sales, the WSJ reports.

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 15, 2022

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Almost like it was planned.

FTAG 2000 said:

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McInnis 03 said:

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This is happening faster than I anticipated......The Yuan is quickly gaining steam as a reserve currency, eh?

JUST IN - Saudi Arabia considers accepting #Yuan instead of #Dollars for Chinese oil sales, the WSJ reports.

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) March 15, 2022

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Almost like it was planned.

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Go back to U.S. fossil fuel independence.
Allow China to promote Yuan and get ready for a default.
Yuan as a reserve currency is akin to allowing Russia to supply 40% of your NatGas needs in the winter.
Lib policy is working to injure this country, knowingly.

Barclays: Offers a volatility product

Also Barclays: Halts volatility product for volatility pic.twitter.com/nXwRkgFHPA

— Horselover Fat 🧙‍♂️ (@Michigandolf) March 15, 2022

McInnis 03 said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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I think the bottom is in for tech. I'm selling some of my value stocks (ABBV) and hitting GOOGL.

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Curious your thoughts on this corrupt nickel debacle, you too Farmer........ looks like JPM and the Chinese Billionaire got a bail out of only the most mafioso sized proportions?

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Bank - You lose $10k and it is your problem
Also bank - You lose $2B and it is our problem...

Irish 2.0 said:

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*LME SETS NICKEL TRADING LIMIT AT 5%

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 15, 2022

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THE LME JUST DECIDING TO JUST UP AND CANCEL FOUR BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF NICKEL TRADES LAST WEEK JUST TO SAVE THE ASS OF JP MORGAN, SOME LOCAL BROKERS AND A CHINESE NICKEL PRODUCER IS A MAJOR FUCKING SCANDAL.

A MARKETPLACE FAILURE THAT DWARFS ALL THE DEFI EXPLOITS COMBINED.

— INVESTMENT HULK (@INVESTMENTSHULK) March 14, 2022

Can we be calling bottom on things today when FOMC is tomorrow?

This feels like a bull trap.