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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 3:56p, 3/14/22
Welcome to the dark side. Once we all get over the elation of the recent bull market and realize how much downside pain is to come, you will be happy because your long-dated puts will print and when things finally settle off the floor at some point in the future, you will have 30-50% more to spend on good companies that survive this coming bloodbath.

Someone last night showed some stocks that have fallen a good ways so far. There's plenty more downside to come. AAPL just now fell below the 200 MA today.

Not financial advice. I'm a neurosurgeon and below average investor/trader.

Current position: 7 DIA 325P expiry 4/14. Will roll these to May as soon as they go green. Currently down about 15%.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Brewmaster • 3:58p, 3/14/22
Correct.

The best was "ANIMALITY".

Ona side note, the recent Mortal Kombat movie that has been showing on HBO is totally bad-A, and I highly recommend it. 80s-90s kid here
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:04p, 3/14/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
In best Mortal Kombat voice: Fatality.


This is not the market environment to disappoint. That said, I'll look at '23 '24 leaps in the morning,
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:06p, 3/14/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Welcome to the dark side. Once we all get over the elation of the recent bull market and realize how much downside pain is to come, you will be happy because your long-dated puts will print and when things finally settle off the floor at some point in the future, you will have 30-50% more to spend on good companies that survive this coming bloodbath.

Someone last night showed some stocks that have fallen a good ways so far. There's plenty more downside to come. AAPL just now fell below the 200 MA today.

Not financial advice. I'm a neurosurgeon and below average investor/trader.

Current position: 7 DIA 325P expiry 4/14. Will roll these to May as soon as they go green. Currently down about 15%.

What are you targeting with the puts? 52 week lows? Further back?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:11p, 3/14/22
AG
yeah don't go too permabear, we could rip faces tomorrow and destroy put premiums, then chop Wednesday, full on dump Thursday.
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Brewmaster
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4:11p, 3/14/22
AG


LOL, sorry not sorry
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:12p, 3/14/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
In best Mortal Kombat voice: Fatality.


Speaking of Mortal Kombat, watch the video to the end.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 4:33p, 3/14/22
My anticipation is that DIA falls to at least 31000, if not lower. 33450 has been real overhead resistance. About 334.50 on DIA. I didn't have exact timeline for that but it's been steadily a leg down with reflex rally, inching lower. I gave myself 50 days when I bought those puts but I may have to roll them out further.

The main reason I am trading DIA and not SPY is that the chart set up looks more clear to me. Moreover, DIA is almost exactly 1/10th DJIA. SPX/SPY is not exactly correlated with the SP futures and I've gotten backwards a couple times on that.

I do think there's a real chance that next Monday could be an absolute bloodbath. Monday following OpEx has been the bloodiest days of the year so far, and more option premium at the money expiring this week than all year so far. My guess is the phone will be ringing on Monday….

My puts have the benefit of time with some theta decay for sure, but an impulsive move down will be enough to go green and then roll them out further, I think.
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FJ43
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4:46p, 3/14/22
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Irish 2.0
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5:35p, 3/14/22
Just in time for futures flip. Lol
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Charismatic Megafauna
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5:44p, 3/14/22
AG
This things barely been going 2 weeks. May is 6 weeks away. Ukraine will be a wasteland by then. Maybe that's the joke?
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Ragoo
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6:41p, 3/14/22
AG
Let's get rippy TSLA
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TChaney
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 6:54p, 3/14/22
Irish 2.0 said:
Just in time for futures flip. Lol
FYI the only sources reporting this are Sputnik and Chinese media.

Supposed quote that somehow went from "Russia can leave or we will kill everything they send our way" to the tweet above.

"Within a week or two there will be a peace agreement with the withdrawal of troops or an attempt at a second round of offensive." To do this, the Russian Federation can try to scrape together the Syrians or throw into Ukraine all the conscripts who will be called up in April.


"But after we grind them, by May we will reach a peace agreement with possible local battles within a year." However, later everyone will understand that Putin has lost, and Russia is in for a socio-political crisis.

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Dan Scott
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7:00p, 3/14/22
AG
Cutting your losses on a stock suck. Cutting losses in a war is even worse. It's way too early for either side to walk away. And both sides could be saying f it we've already lost too much might as keep going. The collateral damage to the world economy is what will make the war stop by the rest of the world getting involved. This gets uglier before it gets better. Fading any peace talks has been the play and will continue in my opinion
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FJ43
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7:01p, 3/14/22
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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7:27p, 3/14/22
Beware the Ides of March!

This line was immortalized in a play by Shakespeare, Julius Caesar. Caesar was warned by a seer to beware the ides of March, classically the full moon, now recognized as March 15th. He was assassinated by a Roman mob.

Interestingly, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia on March 15, 1939. I have no idea what the markets will do tomorrow (and tomorrow is not a full moon, rather a waxing gibbous), but we should all be careful!
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FJ43
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 7:42p, 3/14/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Beware the Ides of March!

This line was immortalized in a play by Shakespeare, Julius Caesar. Caesar was warned by a seer to beware the ides of March, classically the full moon, now recognized as March 15th. He was assassinated by a Roman mob.

Interestingly, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia on March 15, 1939. I have no idea what the markets will do tomorrow (and tomorrow is not a full moon, rather a waxing gibbous), but we should all be careful!
One question.

How in the heck did you have the time to connect all that?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:50p, 3/14/22
Lol hahaha.

My mentor in investing and I meet every week for dinner. He's in his mid 70s. Neurologist by trade but went back and completed MBA in finance. Man is brilliant and great historian as well. I too love history. We were discussing Putin and some of his antics at dinner last week. He said he's behaving like Hitler in many ways. Folks begged him not to invade Czechoslovakia, namely Chamberlain, who is now memorialized and appeasement, his approach, as a failed means of dealing with dictatorial regimes.

Anyway, he was telling me that he invaded on the Ides of March. I did not know this, but looked it up and confirmed it. I then did a quick read about Julius Caesar (admittedly know very little about Roman Empire). Most of my history knowledge is of AD era, largely after Diocletian.

Remember, if we don't know history, we are doomed to repeat it! This is why I am sharing these videos of Friedman last night. He provides great historical insight. What is happening to our economy now is not new. For example, stimulus checks were given out late in the Roman Empire (not in cash but in the form of grains, etc.). This contributed to the financial decline of the empire. My mentor friend also shared this with me. We must educate ourselves about the economic results of stimulus, money printing, etc.

Carry on! Lol
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:50p, 3/14/22
AG
The comments to this tweet are all about amc and gme. Meme day tomorrow?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:08p, 3/14/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Beware the Ides of March!

This line was immortalized in a play by Shakespeare, Julius Caesar. Caesar was warned by a seer to beware the ides of March, classically the full moon, now recognized as March 15th. He was assassinated by a Roman mob.

Interestingly, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia on March 15, 1939. I have no idea what the markets will do tomorrow (and tomorrow is not a full moon, rather a waxing gibbous), but we should all be careful!


lol, just picking on you BSG! stay classy dog
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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8:16p, 3/14/22
Are we throwing out the financial seasonality of the mid-March dip? Asking for an alien friend.
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FJ43
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:18p, 3/14/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Are we throwing out the financial seasonality of the mid-March dip? Asking for an alien friend.
You going full bull mode on us Farmer?
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:33p, 3/14/22
Irish 2.0
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8:34p, 3/14/22
More blood in China
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:38p, 3/14/22
FJ43 said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Are we throwing out the financial seasonality of the mid-March dip? Asking for an alien friend.
You going full bull mode on us Farmer?
If Putin was playing nice, the answer would be a resounding "Yes".

It's still "Yes", but I'm 80% confident.

Nearby: I agree about the tough sledding this week and likely Monday a red day like today. I do think this market is over sold. Fear & Greed Index still locked at 16 and all categories are Extreme Fear. I don't see a Bear Market in our future (2022). I think 5 crappy trading days ahead and next week Tuesday we find calm seas.

Future: I rotated to early last year into Value stocks. I do think Growth Tech will be an underperforming category this year. I think 5,000 S&P is hit this year late or next year early.

Too many positive things happening in the economy that you'll never hear in the media channels that most Americans choose to listen to. Can the numbers overcome the sentiment? I say yes to that.

ETA: I think the larger market fear happens in October
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to [removed post] • 8:58p, 3/14/22
Thanks for sharing that. Very insightful. Maybe he's the seer that warned of our downfall? Sadly, it looks as if his calls for practical monetary policy fell on deaf ears out of political expediency.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:16p, 3/14/22
AG
TOS is requiring $33K in margin to buy 1 crude oil contract.

WOW.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:18p, 3/14/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
TOS is requiring $33K in margin to buy 1 crude oil contract.

WOW.


I think we are near a bottom if they're pricing risk this way.
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agdaddy04
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 9:29p, 3/14/22
AG
Sure wish I would've followed you into value from growth last year. Would've saved me $300k probably
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:30p, 3/14/22
TD is the worst broker for futures by far. Ridiculous margin, fees, commissions.
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Red Rover
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:42p, 3/14/22
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Beware the Ides of March!

This line was immortalized in a play by Shakespeare, Julius Caesar. Caesar was warned by a seer to beware the ides of March, classically the full moon, now recognized as March 15th. He was assassinated by a Roman mob.

Interestingly, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia on March 15, 1939. I have no idea what the markets will do tomorrow (and tomorrow is not a full moon, rather a waxing gibbous), but we should all be careful!

It's also my birthday, so I'm pretty sure all of y'all are ****ed.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:51p, 3/14/22
AG
Final straw. I just started opening IKBR Pro.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:52p, 3/14/22
AG
I can only paper trade on it for now, so I think I'm going to open 400 contracts of TSLA for fun.
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Ragoo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:20p, 3/14/22
AG
What are you thinking?
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Dan Scott
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12:06a, 3/15/22
AG
I was on Fb reels mindlessly scrolling for about 10 minutes and not one ad came up. They are not making off of it. I'm not on TikTok so do they sprinkle in advertisements after videos
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