Time to lit Prog on suicide watch.

TAIWAN DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS 13 CHINESE AIR FORCE PLANES ENTERED TAIWAN'S AIR DEFENCE ZONE ON MONDAY

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 14, 2022

China does this all the time.

McInnis 03 said:

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And the time change messes up my chart comfort with London open time

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Just give it 2 weeks mate

McInnis 03 said:

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Russia and India working on a system of commodities for rupees with yuan as the benchmark.....

Worrisome that this opens the door away from the dollar?

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This was always a risk with cutting Russia off from SWIFT. I really hope this doesn't happen. It's surprising it would be India that would want to buy on the RMB.

Also this weekend I did the math on my 9 city-mpg premium gas guzzler. It would actually be cheaper for me to get an UberX to take my kids to their activities than it is for me to take them and drop them off.

Fed..Will Powell Blink on Ukraine Fears of Recession?.Rates Hit New Highs Yields

The war in Ukraine rages on... Russia is picking up the pace, kidnapping and replacing mayors as the destruction continues... Meanwhile this is the Fed week... Will Jay Powell blink on Wednesday and sound more dovish than the market is building in? Raising rates is a given, but how aggressive?... Overnight we saw new high yields in 2 years at 1.825, 5 years at 2.05 and 10 years above 2.10... All have reversed marginally, but they are not done going higher, at least until Wednesday afternoon... Inflation rages on, and the supply chain, which the Fed has no control over, continues to get worse... Energy prices have soared, although reversing some this morning... Food cost are going up as wheat continues to be much higher due to the big exporters of Ukraine and Russia... And metals which are currently in Russia are off the charts.. The Nickel story is the biggest one as JPM is trying to arrange a loan to the Chinese company of Tsingshou Holding, WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF AN 8 BILLION MARGIN CALL..Yikes... 8 billion being short Nickel?..

Inflation is the number one issue. But is raising rates aggressively the way to fight it?... Raising rates focuses on the demand side, the demand side will slow down due to energy prices and global slowdowns, especially from Europe... So how can the Fed improve the supply side? They can't..the war in Ukraine with Russian sanctions makes it much worse for oil, wheat, metals and other exports. El-Arian, who seems to be interviewed everywhere, even the Sunday shows yesterday, has been pounding the table that the Fed has missed an opportunity of not raising rates and cutting out QE much sooner... While he is correct, one does not make money pointing out the past... Focusing on the future is the way to make money... What will happen next?. So the Fed is faced with bad alternatives.. They will raise rates Wednesday by 25 basis...Powell has said that...but WIRP is starting to push 50 just marginally...90-10 for 25...The Fed needs to build optionality, so we are looking at better than 50 50 for 50 in May... We doubt that happens, but 25 is a foregone conclusion for May.

Fed...Powell will come out Wednesday and we think will be more dovish than the markets...7 hikes are built into WIRP for 2022... We think 4 and balance sheet reduction that is worth about 2... And we will stand with that unless we see Powell comes out hawkish... But if the Fed is smart they can see that FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE GETTING MUCH TIGHTER...GOLDMANS GLOBAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX HAS MOVED TO READINGS INDICATING THE TIGHTEST ENVIRONMENT SINCE MAY 2009..the index rose 130 basis since the Russian invasion on 2/24..Conditions in Emerging Markets reached their tightest since December 2008.

Spreads are showing tightening moves. JPM came out over the weekend saying that the equity markets are showing a 50% chance of a recession, the IG corporate bond market 43% but the Junk bond market only 17%... We go with the latter. While spreads between HY and Treasuries have gone from about 300 to 400 Year to date... According to Martin Fridson, the gap between the yield on junk bonds, according to the vix, should be 781 basis, not 400... So you can interpret two ways... Either the Junk bond market will catch up and widen dramatically, or the Vix will adjust downward... We go with the latter.

Outlook... Fed meetings in March are usually game changers... We have been seeing more buyers coming in through in equities last week, even though the markets ended lower... Hedge funds are shorting the markets, but for how long... The Mike Wilson's of the world are still negative looking for 3900 S+P.. Yardeni was in Barron's talking about 4000 year end target... We are currently at 4200, giving back a chunk of the overnight gains... It won't be easy... Bank America flows have been decidedly bearish. The Flow show that IG/HY is cracking, there is EM capitulation. 9th straight week of big outflows from IG and HY (15.7 billion). Largest ever flows out of European equities of 13.5 billion... Bank America clients, which manage 3.1 trillion, are 63.9% equities (lowest since 3/21) 17.5% bonds, 11.7% cash... Bull Bear indicator 2.9, closer to a buy signal... Short base in treasuries continues...

Powell will not be as Hawkish as the markets... If he is looking at the tightening financial conditions he will move more slowly than expected if he does not want to send the economy into recession...the last thing he wants to do is lose all those employment gains he has worked hard to accomplish over the pandemic crisis... We see 2 years hitting 1.875. 5 years 2, and 10 years 2.23... Long bonds have support at 2.44... But we could exceed these if we are wrong....

Uber just announced a gas surge charge so.... Might want to recalculate

McInnis 03 said:

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Irish 2.0 said:

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China does this all the time.

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I thought they were waiting on the Paralympics to be complete (ended yesterday). But after the financial ramifications on Russia I think China is paused here.

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I meant the provocative flights. China flies into the Taiwanese air space defense zone multiplie times per month just to **** with Taiwan and to let them know they're still there.

tailgatetimer10 said:

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Uber just announced a gas surge charge so.... Might want to recalculate

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When all these teslas start ubering people around dem gig workers gonna get loaded.

tailgatetimer10 said:

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Uber just announced a gas surge charge so.... Might want to recalculate

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And THAT'S how they get you!

BABA up to about 60% of average daily volume this morning already.

Who was it talking about shorting WWR after the pump? Unfortunately that was a great call if he did it.

If you believe in a near term bounce, TTD isn't a bad one to pick IMO.

ASO having a killer day after announcing that they have been added to the S&P SmallCap 600.

1/3 It wasn’t long ago, August ‘19, that VW was considering buying Tesla. Tesla’s market value is up 20x since. Then more recently 1) Elon makes comments about not wanting to be CEO anymore. 2) Elon is the surprise guest of honor at a VW annual meeting.

— Erdem Kiciman (@ekiciman) March 14, 2022

2/3 3) Porsche gets prepped for a spinoff. 4) soon say goodbye to AG’s golden share. 5) today VW’s Diess says of Tesla, “I think we are very complementary you know. It's kind of Tesla paving the way… Tesla is a pioneer ... challenging the industry,

— Erdem Kiciman (@ekiciman) March 14, 2022

3/3 starting with a white sheet of paper [while] Volkswagen has iconic products that can be reinvented for the market.” These two seem to be getting very cozy.

— Erdem Kiciman (@ekiciman) March 14, 2022