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FJ43
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:48p, 3/13/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Want to read some Sh? Read these comments. Wow.



There are vaccines and effective treatments now. I think some of these people want a permanent martyr situation. I don't know anything but I bet BA2 is not that bad here.

I do think we should keep an eye on supply chain items, but these waves blow through quickly.
My guess was China was the largest benefactor of Covid19. They may be betting on a round 2 to cause further disruption.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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FTAG 2000
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7:52p, 3/13/22
AG
Bearish cuz the NCAA selection committee got rim jobs from the Big 10 and Notre Dame.
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FJ43
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8:00p, 3/13/22

This list has a lot of familiar names.

Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 8:01p, 3/13/22
After the Fed raises rates 25, 50, 75 points, what programs get spending cuts to pay the interest on servicing the existing debt? Something has to give in order to balance. Or, U.S. defaults. Choices - raise rates, stomach inflation or default.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:04p, 3/13/22
I own 7 on that list.

ETA - PLTR and the last 6.
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FJ43
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:10p, 3/13/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I own 7 on that list.

ETA - PLTR and the last 6.

Not bad ones to own IMO. Don't think those are going anywhere. I like PLTR long as well.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:16p, 3/13/22
Sadly, names on that list can go down plenty more.

My good friend lived in Las Colinas in late 90s, and his neighbor was CEO of a major tech company, iTwo Technology. The company's stock price was at one point trading at around $200/share, but when it was all said and done, it traded at $2/share…..a loss of 99% of value! That company is now defunct.

Careful trying to catch a falling knife.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 8:27p, 3/13/22
AG
I agree that we will have issues but 0.75% can hardly be considered a bond and CD investing environment. It's not the Volcker era.

I think you may be a bit extreme in the thought of having a 2+ year recession. Even in '08, it ended quickly. This excludes major European war, but I think we are seeing that Russia isn't capable of waging war on a large scale.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:29p, 3/13/22
PLTR is my weak sister. Those others I don't worry about.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:40p, 3/13/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I agree that we will have issues but 0.75% can hardly be considered a bond and CD investing environment. It's not the Volcker era.

I think you may be a bit extreme in the thought of having a 2+ year recession. Even in '08, it ended quickly. This excludes major European war, but I think we are seeing that Russia isn't capable of waging war on a large scale.
To me, that part of your statement is scary and I fully a agree with it. I think they exposed themselves in a very bad way to the world. I think of the thug country's that might be thinking about taking a swing at ol' Russia and that would lead to something more bad.

In business, we always wanted a weak and stupid competitor because that helped hide your monopoly. I think Russia should have stayed quiet and saber rattled. It's a backward looking statement now, but it would have been more effective, IMO. Now everyone knows their strengths and weaknesses in full view.
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Dan Scott
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8:49p, 3/13/22
AG
The last time Wheat prices spiked this high was back in 2011. Russia had a drought and lost about 1/3 of it supply. They then banned the export. Wheat got up to about $8/bushel. The food price spike was one of the reasons for the Arab Spring. Egypt is the worlds largest importer of wheat.

Wheat prices have gotten up to $12/bushel which is double what it was in 2020 and almost triple the average from 2016-2019. In addition global population has grown by about 1B since 2011. This plus the hog shortage and there will be an uprising somewhere.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:51p, 3/13/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I agree that we will have issues but 0.75% can hardly be considered a bond and CD investing environment. It's not the Volcker era.

I think you may be a bit extreme in the thought of having a 2+ year recession. Even in '08, it ended quickly. This excludes major European war, but I think we are seeing that Russia isn't capable of waging war on a large scale.
From the intel I've been able to gather, Russia isn't interested in large scale war. And they're no slouch on the military front, they have hypersonic missile systems, not many countries have those.

Also Putin doesn't want to destroy Ukraine, he wants to root out the anti Russian corruption from within it (and also shut down bio warfare labs on the border). Some of these anti Russian groups have targeted and killed innocent (pro Russian) Ukrainians for years (with no mention from MSM).

I'd caution everyone here against believing too much of what you see or hear on MSM or in a newspaper. There is a lot more to this story. We will find out in time.

I do thoroughly enjoy seeing a Farmer/ 30k exchange on recession, no recession thoughts, etc. Some great reading there!

back to stonks!
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Brewmaster
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In reply to Bonfire1996 • 8:58p, 3/13/22
AG
Bonfire1996 said:



Rally temporarily as oil drops to $90. Reality is inflation is so bad the Fed must destroy demand to get it under control.

Rally to May, then drop below this level as companies guide lower and lower and lower.

Just my thoughts
and this would fit with seasonality. A seasonality chart has us rally about mid to early March.

thanks for posting!
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:23p, 3/13/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Sadly, names on that list can go down plenty more.

My good friend lived in Las Colinas in late 90s, and his neighbor was CEO of a major tech company, iTwo Technology. The company's stock price was at one point trading at around $200/share, but when it was all said and done, it traded at $2/share…..a loss of 99% of value! That company is now defunct.

Careful trying to catch a falling knife.


Can't decide which is gloomier, premium *****ing about being left out of the dance or your forecast for stocks.

J/K, love you doc.
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Irish 2.0
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9:25p, 3/13/22
All those Atlas Trading doochsticks are wiping and deleting their Twitters. SEC hammer coming down is my guess.

Warned y'all not to listen to them
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to ProgN • 9:29p, 3/13/22
Lol I care about you all. I'm giving the bear case for disaster….but every time I see 30K with a fairly bullish outlook, I get scared and do a double take. We have to eliminate our blind spots….only way to be better traders and better positioned for our financial success and future!

I think our government and the Fed have missed severely and the market will have to suffer for such sin. And no one still wants to fix it in Congress….just blame anyone but themselves. Not helping!

And yes, was sad to see you guys get left out! Your team rallied hard through the SEC tourney and had some good wins. Didn't like your getting left out. I married deep into Aggie family, so though I'm happy for my Bears, I wanted to be happy for all you too!
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Dan Scott
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9:31p, 3/13/22
AG
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 9:33p, 3/13/22
AG
Irish 2.0 said:
All those Atlas Trading doochsticks are wiping and deleting their Twitters. SEC hammer coming down is my guess.

Warned y'all not to listen to them


@999Stacey 999 claims to be the Canary that sang to feds
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ProgN
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:34p, 3/13/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Lol I care about you all. I'm giving the bear case for disaster….but every time I see 30K with a fairly bullish outlook, I get scared and do a double take. We have to eliminate our blind spots….only way to be better traders and better positioned for our financial success and future!

I think our government and the Fed have missed severely and the market will have to suffer for such sin. And no one still wants to fix it in Congress….just blame anyone but themselves. Not helping!

And yes, was sad to see you guys get left out! Your team rallied hard through the SEC tourney and had some good wins. Didn't like your getting left out. I married deep into Aggie family, so though I'm happy for my Bears, I wanted to be happy for all you too!
I know your intentions are good, I'm just busting your balls and having fun on a Sunday night.

Like my late father used to say, "If I can't **** with you, then I don't like you".
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:34p, 3/13/22
Don't know who that is.
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Dan Scott
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9:35p, 3/13/22
AG
Hong Kong market is below 20K. Lowest level since June 2016. NIO picked a bad time to list there
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Dan Scott
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9:37p, 3/13/22
AG
After up 100+ nasdaq 100 futures now red.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 9:39p, 3/13/22
AG
Irish 2.0 said:
Don't know who that is.


Just looks like some crazy broad to me now after a quick dig
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Dan Scott • 9:39p, 3/13/22
AG
Dan Scott said:
After up 100+ nasdaq 100 futures now red.


Foxconn
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ProgN
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 9:40p, 3/13/22
Scroll up or last page but someone commented, Dan Scott IIRC, about China, hogs, flu, etc and I said that you'd know. TIA
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Irish 2.0
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9:45p, 3/13/22
China locking down Shenzhen is why China got killed today. It's their silicone valley.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to Brewmaster • 9:50p, 3/13/22
A little more...

A key economic barometer is the NAHB Housing Market Index, January was 83, February was 82, above 50 is highly favorable territory. The 12 month low was August at 75. Housing starts declined 4.1% in Jan - not unusual with cold weather. Building permits rose 0.7% in Feb - Single Family permits rose 6.8% and the housing backlog increased 4.9% to 280,000, reflecting shortages and rising construction costs (materials and labor). Housing starts at one of the best levels in 15 years. The Conference Board of Leading Economic Index LEI declined 0.3% in Jan. Retail sales are up 3.8% in Jan following a decline of 2.5% in Dec. The Fed focuses on the unemployment rate and as you recall, Powell said he would not tinker with rates until we returned to full employment. I understand that now he considers the U.S. at FULL employment levels. (I'm not sure about that..). March 16th is the end of ZIRP. The yield curve slope of the 3-month Treasury and the 10-year & 30-year Treasury remains positive < another part of the LEI. With Fed not talking about being restrictive in monetary policy (multi-large rate hikes) and all other indicators positive, recession probability in 2022 is minimal at best. 3 years of compound annual return of 25.7% from the S&P...we need a breather. I put GDP growth at 3% this year and next year.

I don't have a projection about Putin. I don't like his actions. Can he start WWIII, yes. However, are we already in WWIII - an economic war? I don't know. but I'm watching & reading. I'm just glad that 40% of my NatGas doesn't come from Russia like a European depends on.
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Engine10
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9:56p, 3/13/22
AG
Yeah that's suboptimal
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McInnis 03
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9:59p, 3/13/22
AG


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McInnis 03
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9:59p, 3/13/22
AG
Playbook?
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 10:24p, 3/13/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
So where are we? I think we're close to buy the dip and disbelief.

Between overt warning and panic. I tend to agree with Bonfire - I think we will have an exaggerated bounce sometime soon, as the market is political in an election year, then we'll hit panic once rates rise or they don't and inflation becomes a real problem.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:27p, 3/13/22
AG
I'm not bullish. I just don't think we sell directly.
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tremble
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 4:32a, 3/14/22
AG
Irish 2.0 said:
China locking down Shenzhen is why China got killed today. It's their silicone valley.


Chinese Silicone Valley? My interest is piqued.
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gougler08
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5:55a, 3/14/22
AG
Our market doesn't care about China right now it seems
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McInnis 03
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5:55a, 3/14/22
AG
Russia and India working on a system of commodities for rupees with yuan as the benchmark.....

Worrisome that this opens the door away from the dollar?
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