FJ43 said:

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If there is a peace agreement or truce do we:

Rally?
Dead cat bounce?
Grind sideways?
Downtrend continuation?

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Rally temporarily as oil drops to $90. Reality is inflation is so bad the Fed must destroy demand to get it under control.

Rally to May, then drop below this level as companies guide lower and lower and lower.

Just my thoughts

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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https://torontosun.com/health/diet-fitness/daylight-savings-could-increase-chance-of-heart-disease-strokes-studies/wcm/a0f1d2a7-65c0-42a0-988f-1ac02bc7986e/amp/

Be careful out there.

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So does the vaccine but that doesn't bother billions of people. I'd rather we stay on DST personally.

ProgN said:

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Have you ever glanced at a chart and you thought EKG for a split second?

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If he has, it was not a good one for the patient

If you're able to find a correlation and discover a trading secret don't forget us little peeps when you're a billionaire.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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So where are we? I think we're close to buy the dip and disbelief.

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You might be the most neurotic bear I've ever seen around these parts

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Not sure but maybe we should ask Antoni Gaudi, the mastermind behind the beauty of Barcelona.

He had similar bizarre thoughts. He said straight lines didn't exist in nature (may have some validity?), and so none of his art/architecture predominates with straight edges but largely consist of rounded edges, etc.

Side note: if you haven't been to Barcelona, GO! It's amazing.

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I want to but the world would have to return from the land of dumbasses and drop covid vaccine mandates in order to visit their countries, but I don't see that ever happening.

Dan Scott said:

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I've been listening a lot to Peter Zeihan this weekend. In his opinion, by 4Q it's possible we have global famine. There will be global fertilizer shortage which will hurt growth and Ukraine will miss their growing season.

He mentioned something I had never heard before. China has been infected the African Swine Flu. It's killed millions of hogs. I looked up hog prices and they've double since 2019. China is trying to replace the hogs but they haven't gotten rid of the virus. The Chinese are over producing rice to offset lost hogs meaning they are hoarding phosphate which adds to the global fertilizer shortage.

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Luckily we have an inside source on this board with respect to hogs and China. That's Irish's real job. I'm sure he'll opine on it when he reads these posts. Although, St. Patrick's Day is this week so remember that, should his posts seem a bit salty.

I'm sure you all saw Pelosi's speech on Friday. She said government spending was reducing inflation. I've got two words for her….

Watch his other videos on inflation. He says inflation typically rears its ugly head 18-24 months after an upscale in money printing. Everything is right on course….except the solution the problem. Powell is failing to address the cause and therefore is not treating the condition.

I remain bearish for this reason. There are economic principles with reliable, known outcomes. This is one of those situations. Russia is a convenient scapegoat. Biden also wrong….Putin did not cause inflation, either.

I'm sure you don't go to F16 so you missed this gem. I keep bumping it every month when CPI is released just to twist the knife because of his condescending attitude and arrogance.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3205233

Just read the OP.

Ags got screwed not making the tourney.

Lol actually not! People claim that it wasn't know. That the Earth was round till 1500s-1600s, but early century folks knew it was round because when ships would go out of view…one could still see their masts, suggesting they were going over a curve. So even the horizon isn't flat! Right??

I learned that curves were better than flat in jr. high.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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I try to avoid drinking the poison that puts you in timeout haha!

That OP is confusing supply-demand with inflation. Every time a stock price goes up, it's due to inflation? Not more demand than supply (ie outstanding shares/float)?

Inflation is caused by printing greenbacks.

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Yep, but he's a disciple of MMT and was trying to tell us olds that we were wrong in adhering to outdated concepts dating back hundreds of years. He's too proud to admit he's wrong so that's why I bump it each month as a painful reminder.

Ragoo said:

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Bonfire1996 said:

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FJ43 said:

---

If there is a peace agreement or truce do we:

Rally?
Dead cat bounce?
Grind sideways?
Downtrend continuation?

---

Rally temporarily as oil drops to $90. Reality is inflation is so bad the Fed must destroy demand to get it under control.

Rally to May, then drop below this level as companies guide lower and lower and lower.

Just my thoughts

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what are you seeing in the greater economy? Seems like we are in a slow deleverage period.

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I see a complete and total lack of confidence to invest money in new ventures and projects. The only investment is in search of low risk, low yield real estate, and that's just people putting existing liquidity to work.

When the Fed raises rates to 0.75%, people will stop investing in risky assets and start going to bonds. Then there will be no new investment in future, big thinking projects.

Demand destruction has begun with inflation, it will go ape shat with raising rates.

I predict a recession beginning 3Q and it lasts through the end of Biden. It will be protracted at first and then hover above and below the 0% GDP growth line but only because the BLS changed the calculation.

This one will hurt. Texas and Florida will thrive though as the recession will be really freaking bad in Covid destroyed locales. Invest locally and you will be fine. Ride the dead cat through Sept 1.