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Last: 18 min ago by FishrCoAg
My weekly summary.
Really enthused with how I've turned around my portfolio this year. Just one 20% gainer a month would mean a 200% profit a year so I'm trying hard not to get myself wrapped around the "what if I held axial." That said, seeing RCC, WHD, AGO, and WEAT leave me behind has me a little frustrated...even if I did call the entry point correctly. Oh well, can't complain about profit in this market.
This week, my eyes are on AEG and SAVA. I bought and sold SAVA for a loss last week, but intend on getting back in. SAVA shows that it should continue downwhard a bit more before it reverses back towards 50. Looking to get in around 33.
Really enthused with how I've turned around my portfolio this year. Just one 20% gainer a month would mean a 200% profit a year so I'm trying hard not to get myself wrapped around the "what if I held axial." That said, seeing RCC, WHD, AGO, and WEAT leave me behind has me a little frustrated...even if I did call the entry point correctly. Oh well, can't complain about profit in this market.
This week, my eyes are on AEG and SAVA. I bought and sold SAVA for a loss last week, but intend on getting back in. SAVA shows that it should continue downwhard a bit more before it reverses back towards 50. Looking to get in around 33.
CEI
Exited half of trading shares bought in the .60s here at 1.14 early premarket. Will sell calls on or remaining shares with any continuation.
Exited half of trading shares bought in the .60s here at 1.14 early premarket. Will sell calls on or remaining shares with any continuation.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Sector themes last longer than you think. Remember Solars in OCT/NOV 2020? Where is the supply coming from to bring Crude down? Also God forbid NATO gets involved in the conflict kinetically, and then all hell breaks loose.$30,000 Millionaire said:
Moves are rarely linear.
During times like this, you stop traveling as much and don't buy anything. A 25% move normally has some retracement.
I was long oil before this big move. If you want to go long oil here, go for it.
Futures improving just a bit. I'm taking initial position in $SE at the open, will layer into it gradually.
Wild Ride Overnight.... as Inflation Weighs Heavier Than Growth...REVERSING NOW
Overnight we saw wild rides in oil, wheat , and Palladium...WTI hit 130 and Brent close to 140... They are now back to 120 and 124...Wheat is up over 7% and Palladium up close to 10%... BUT COULD THIS ALL BE REVERSING? Headlines now are talking about the end of the Ukraine war? Really...our colleague just sent us these headlines
KREMLIN SPOKESMAN SAYS UKRAINE MUST RECOGNISE CRIMEA AS RUSSIAN, AND DONETSK AND LUGANSK AS INDEPENDENT STATES
KREMLIN SPOKESMAN TELLS REUTERS THAT RUSSIA HAS TOLD UKRAINE IT CAN HALT OPERATIONS 'AT ANY MOMENT' IF KYIV MEETS RUSSIAN CONDITIONS
Overnight 10 year treasuries soared to just under 1.67, but could not hold those gains and then reversed to 1.73 in London time... We now see, after the headline above, that they have now backed up to losses, where the 10 year is above 1.77...the treasury yield curve is about 4-5 basis higher in yield, lower in price...S+P FUTURES JUST RALLIED 58 POINTS IN THE LAST 40 MINUTES
We were ready to write a bear market update, but now sure what these headlines mean...Russian defaults on their bonds are now at 80%... Dollar is the FTQ. As the DXY hit 99.418 this morning... The Euro and Swiss Franc reached parity... European equities were looking at bear market territory, with the DAX down over 23% from its 2021 high, at 3.30 this morning...
Credit...IG got out to 789 this morning before reversing to 75 on these headlines...the chart remains ugly, as 80 was our next support . CDX HY got out to 398.5 before reversing to 395... As ugly as the spread charts look, the new issue market for IG is thriving with 32 borrowers coming to market last week price over 59 billion of debt... While coverage ratios remain good at 3.7 oversubscribed, the new issue concession was over 10 basis... We expect another good week this week in front of the Fed next week
Fed/Wirp... The QE finally ends on Wednesday... Took long enough... Powell was clear for March, 25 basis... And the markets are not challenging that...Wirp remains just below 1% at, 94% probability for a 25 hike next week ... The number of hikes for the year remains below 6... We still think 4 with some balance sheet back off... But Wrightson says this morning that the Treasury could do some buy backs for liquidity purposes starting in the summer... We do not have any details beyond what they wrote... Liquidity has been awful in treasuries, especially the off the runs... Market depths and tcosts are now equivalent to March 2020 in US/EU front ends.
We are hostage to headlines out of Europe... Russians continue to make life in Ukraine miserable as they destroy the infrastructure and take over the power plants... They seem to think that they can freeze the Ukrainians into submission while the world watches from TV and Internet...but Russian are responsible for many commodities, like oil and palladium... And Ukraine responsible for a large part of the world's wheat.... Inflation seems to be more of a problem than an economic slowdown for now...and as far as a slowdown, last weeks employment number continues to look good for the economy... And whatever slowdown may develop, should be short... Bear markets are here in many areas, but not the S+P for now.... According to Barron's JPM has cut its Global Growth for GDP by 3.9 to 3.1.... And upped its US CPI inflation outlook by 1 full percentage point for 2022 to 4.9%
Overnight we saw wild rides in oil, wheat , and Palladium...WTI hit 130 and Brent close to 140... They are now back to 120 and 124...Wheat is up over 7% and Palladium up close to 10%... BUT COULD THIS ALL BE REVERSING? Headlines now are talking about the end of the Ukraine war? Really...our colleague just sent us these headlines
KREMLIN SPOKESMAN SAYS UKRAINE MUST RECOGNISE CRIMEA AS RUSSIAN, AND DONETSK AND LUGANSK AS INDEPENDENT STATES
KREMLIN SPOKESMAN TELLS REUTERS THAT RUSSIA HAS TOLD UKRAINE IT CAN HALT OPERATIONS 'AT ANY MOMENT' IF KYIV MEETS RUSSIAN CONDITIONS
Overnight 10 year treasuries soared to just under 1.67, but could not hold those gains and then reversed to 1.73 in London time... We now see, after the headline above, that they have now backed up to losses, where the 10 year is above 1.77...the treasury yield curve is about 4-5 basis higher in yield, lower in price...S+P FUTURES JUST RALLIED 58 POINTS IN THE LAST 40 MINUTES
We were ready to write a bear market update, but now sure what these headlines mean...Russian defaults on their bonds are now at 80%... Dollar is the FTQ. As the DXY hit 99.418 this morning... The Euro and Swiss Franc reached parity... European equities were looking at bear market territory, with the DAX down over 23% from its 2021 high, at 3.30 this morning...
Credit...IG got out to 789 this morning before reversing to 75 on these headlines...the chart remains ugly, as 80 was our next support . CDX HY got out to 398.5 before reversing to 395... As ugly as the spread charts look, the new issue market for IG is thriving with 32 borrowers coming to market last week price over 59 billion of debt... While coverage ratios remain good at 3.7 oversubscribed, the new issue concession was over 10 basis... We expect another good week this week in front of the Fed next week
Fed/Wirp... The QE finally ends on Wednesday... Took long enough... Powell was clear for March, 25 basis... And the markets are not challenging that...Wirp remains just below 1% at, 94% probability for a 25 hike next week ... The number of hikes for the year remains below 6... We still think 4 with some balance sheet back off... But Wrightson says this morning that the Treasury could do some buy backs for liquidity purposes starting in the summer... We do not have any details beyond what they wrote... Liquidity has been awful in treasuries, especially the off the runs... Market depths and tcosts are now equivalent to March 2020 in US/EU front ends.
We are hostage to headlines out of Europe... Russians continue to make life in Ukraine miserable as they destroy the infrastructure and take over the power plants... They seem to think that they can freeze the Ukrainians into submission while the world watches from TV and Internet...but Russian are responsible for many commodities, like oil and palladium... And Ukraine responsible for a large part of the world's wheat.... Inflation seems to be more of a problem than an economic slowdown for now...and as far as a slowdown, last weeks employment number continues to look good for the economy... And whatever slowdown may develop, should be short... Bear markets are here in many areas, but not the S+P for now.... According to Barron's JPM has cut its Global Growth for GDP by 3.9 to 3.1.... And upped its US CPI inflation outlook by 1 full percentage point for 2022 to 4.9%
damn dude, great work. So what should we be swinging soon AEG, SAVA and OSTK if it dips?Philip J Fry said:
My weekly summary.
Really enthused with how I've turned around my portfolio this year. Just one 20% gainer a month would mean a 200% profit a year so I'm trying hard not to get myself wrapped around the "what if I held axial." That said, seeing RCC, WHD, AGO, and WEAT leave me behind has me a little frustrated...even if I did call the entry point correctly. Oh well, can't complain about profit in this market.
This week, my eyes are on AEG and SAVA. I bought and sold SAVA for a loss last week, but intend on getting back in. SAVA shows that it should continue downwhard a bit more before it reverses back towards 50. Looking to get in around 33.
Pretty big swing. We might open green
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Be careful early. This could be a melt up day so don't get in too short, but this also could be a good bull trap and we power down after a first 30-60 minutes of green.
In the event the Ukraine situation comes to a sudden end, how violently would we expect the markets to recover?
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Volume is pretty big for premarket. This will be interesting. I'm leaving bull today, but who knows.
these headlines of Putin agreeing to ceasefires and possible end of the war are simply BS postings for Russian propaganda and those trying to pump the markets.
It's ridiculous and just like the endless breathless headlines of "Iranian nuke deal being reached in a few days" which have been written every single week for the last 8 years.
it's all a show, and intelligent observers can see through it. there is not going to be one single event which "ends" this war, it's going to be a long term insurgency.
It's ridiculous and just like the endless breathless headlines of "Iranian nuke deal being reached in a few days" which have been written every single week for the last 8 years.
it's all a show, and intelligent observers can see through it. there is not going to be one single event which "ends" this war, it's going to be a long term insurgency.
what's the yield curve today?
that compares the 2 and 10 year rates correct? or the 2 and 30 year rates?
that compares the 2 and 10 year rates correct? or the 2 and 30 year rates?
50K account:
Selling 1 dkng covered call 21.5 for 0.66
Selling 1 URA 25C for 0.3 (selling cc on half)
Selling 1 dkng covered call 21.5 for 0.66
Selling 1 URA 25C for 0.3 (selling cc on half)
50K account:
Selling CWH 29.5P for 0.8
Selling CWH 29.5P for 0.8
What's the ES level we are watching? 4260?
that's the big one. need to stay over 4300 though
dunno if anyone followed this but it's diving this morning. my puts are up 20% so i trimmed some offsts7049 said:
ARCC has some huge flow buying puts today
yep, if it gets tested today, good night Irene.Spoony Love said:
What's the ES level we are watching? 4260?
Right now it seems to be struggling to stay in touch. Relentless selling happening.
HAL and SLB both absolutely launching
I didn't get too deep into my screener last night before I crashed, There are likely other nice swings setting up. For me, I'm about to go all in on SAVA if it drops below 36.
NOV
Take healthy profit or get greedy and hold for more
Take healthy profit or get greedy and hold for more
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Still be careful with how "all in" you go. -Experience
IMnAg79 said:
NOV
Take healthy profit or get greedy and hold for more
Depends on what you're holding. Short term options I'd take profit on some and let the rest ride.
Shares or leaps, I'd hold. The industry is reacting to commodity price now. Once they start reporting on earnings the next 6-12 months you'll really start to see steady increases in price.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I'm in QQQ puts right now. If SPX can't hold Friday's low or the 4260, I'll get in more QQQ puts as well as SPX/SPY.
RIG just blew a gasket!!!
Anyone else been holding the $RIG bag since July?
I'm holding a weekly $400p SPY. It's ludicrous for sure, but with VIX in the 30s like it has been consistently, I'm not sure when there is going to be relief.
GPS is rocking
BBBY ridiculous gap up.
Bought a bunch of ATM DIA puts with May expiry. Did same thing last week and made quick 28%. Rinse and repeat I hope.
If anyone believes in chart comparisons, look at DAX and then compare to DJIA. They are about 1-2 wks ahead of us perhaps, but we may be in for same outcome.
If anyone believes in chart comparisons, look at DAX and then compare to DJIA. They are about 1-2 wks ahead of us perhaps, but we may be in for same outcome.
just your regular 54% increase...
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I am playing close to ATM when I buy puts or calls these days. But either will work if we get an aggressive move.
Do we get a bounce here at 4267 or down to 4260 straight away?
Do we get a bounce here at 4267 or down to 4260 straight away?
If we lose 4260, where is the next leg down, 4110?
ETA to reply to BKL: I think we are losing 4260 today.
ETA to reply to BKL: I think we are losing 4260 today.
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