some of you may think I'm nuts, but if one of these goes, it will be a big win. The risk is generally very low from current prices.

'Dog tickers' = $ if your a trader, know the SR levels intimately, understand TA and have the discipline to honor stops and exits. Play small. If not move along.

If you're an investor not the positions to enter.

Why doesn't Texags have an American flag emoji?

I'm happy to report I didn't watch one single second of it

Texas or gtfo

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Why doesn't Texags have an American flag emoji?

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I'd like them to add the praying hands emoji for posts like the father asking for prayers for his son, Caleb, last week. The head down sad emoji sucks when he's asking for prayers and support. JMO, but they should definitely add that one.

ProgN said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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Why doesn't Texags have an American flag emoji?

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I'd like them to add the praying hands emoji for posts like the father asking for prayers for his son, Caleb, last week. The head down sad emoji sucks when he's asking for prayers and support. JMO, but they should definitely add that one.

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This would be great Prog. I'd love if they added that.

Let's see where spy opens. I'm keeping my stop at 2 for the SPY calls. I'll look to exit on any early strength.

Markets Reverse on Rumors of Russian Talks...Kremlin Says No Other Claims

Equities were heading lower after a brief rally after the State of the Union Speech, but reversed in London time as Russia came out wanting talks with Ukraine... The Kremlin also said that they have "No Claims on Other Nations Borders"... Sorry if you believe that than we have some swampland for sale in Arizona...Nonetheless the S+P futures bottomed at 2.20 am and rallied 55 points to 4340... We are now a few points off that high... Nasdaq futures rallied about 225 points off its low... And of course, treasuries and EGB's gave back some of the short covering gains we saw yesterday.

Treasuries and Powell...Many CTA's and other leveraged runs got stopped out yesterday throughout the curve... We detailed this in last nights report. Today we get Jay Powell's testimony in front of the House... He actually has a window of which to maneuver... With oil hitting 111 this morning for WTI, there is very little the Fed can do, except raise rates... But the Russian invasion and the massive amount of sanctions and disruptions that come with it give Powell the cover to move "gradually". Even though we will hear Bullard today talk about 100 basis of rate hikes before July, he will not get his 50 in 2 weeks...WIRP is back to over 100% for a 25 basis move, but little more... According to the charts, the odds of 25 got to 80% at one point yesterday, now 101% as we write... The amount of hikes expected by year end remain at 5, after getting to the mid 4's yesterday... GS and BofA remain adamant about 7... We remain at 4.

Powell testimony starts at 10 am but the his statement will be released around 8.30... We may get market reaction... So far today the yield curve is marginally flatter, with 2-5 backing up 5-6 basis and 10-30 backing up 2-3 basis... For 2 years we think that 1.60 could easily be achieved again if the violence stops in Europe, but until then there will be some type of FTQ built in... Inflation is clearly not going away and with WTI above 109, shortages will make the energy sector contribution to inflation higher....selling oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not the answer, and Biden did not embrace more drilling for oil in the US. So the Fed is stuck with rising inflation and sticky moves throughout the summer....

Rates... EGBs are back over 10 basis in the peripheral countries of Spain, Italy and Portugal... But they did move 20+ higher yesterday... US 10 years are in a 1.70-1.80 range for now, but could easily get back to 2% if tensions ease . The curve should remain steeper than we saw last week and should not invert over the next few months.

Corporate issuance came yesterday in the height of volatility...well known names took advantage of the lower treasury rates and priced about 12 billion over 7 deals... The spreads were wider and new issue concessions were over 14 basis, much wider than recently. IG corporate spreads have moved from under 50 at the beginning of the year to over 71 currently.. And based on charts, we can see it getting to 100... Secondary liquidity remains suspect... High Yield CDS set a record close wide yesterday of 381, that has moved from 293 at the beginning of the year...but it did spike last week to 400 intraday ... 415 is our near term objective... All from charts.

Today we get Evans at 9am, Bullard at 9.30, Powell at 10, the Beige book at 2 PM and Lori Logan will discuss Fed purchases at 4.30... We expect the market to follow Powell baring any market moving headlines out of Ukraine... We hope for the best and worry about the worst... Expect some volatile moves in treasuries and the curve based on how Powell takes the fast ball from the House today.

Don't forget the fed is today

50K account: job 1 of a trader is preserving capital. Move spy call stops to 3

Bought back those SOFI puts we sold yesterday. I'll take the 85% profit and stay clear of any shenanigans. Great play Irish.

Move to 4.6. Guaranteed 15%