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mazag08
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:09a, 2/26/22
AG
I'm from PG. my parents bought their house, the model home from a builder who went bankrupt in the 80's. Their interest rate was 13% I think.

We live in different times, but anyone saying real estate can't go down is an idiot. Now it might not stay down, and you might not have a loss on your record if you can make it through, but it can and will go down again.

If you're one of those people paying $50k over list for a house that was listed $100k over where it was valued two years ago, putting 3% down in the process. Better hope we don't enter a recession in the next couple years or you lose your job.

The real estate market is fundamentally healthier than 2008 because we're not "quite" allowing the kind of ridiculous sub prime loans that we were back then. And much fewer people have adjustable rate mortgages. But it's been slow creeping back to where irresponsible people are being put in expensive houses with high leverage that it's starting to scare me.
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gougler08
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:12a, 2/26/22
AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Quote:
when has real estate gone down in major markets other than in 2009
Well amigo, let me share this....

84/85 Richmond, TX development called Pecan Grove, outside of Houston, TX, if that's big enough for you. Brand new tract home. Picked out everything. Paid $109k. 9 months later had to sell due to job transfer. Three appraisals within 6%. Sold it to my company for $64k. Housing market was crashing - TX oil economy went to the gutter. Our model could be repeated, brand new, for $85k. My FIL at the time, said eff-it, I'll deal with this. FIL was a Real Estate Broker and Master Appraiser (a side hussle). He bought the house 3 days later from company group for $66K. Sold it 2 months later for $78k. Side Note: I learned a lot from FIL about the residential real estate market. Some of the stuff I read on the real estate board at this website makes me shake my head. Do your due diligence.

88 Lubbock, TX (the Hub City), location 88th and Slide Road, bought in 85 for $121k and sold in 88 for $92k. Realtor had an offer (the first offer) to buy at $80K after 10 months on the market. I told the mf'er realtor it was $92k or no deal and I'll rent it. I was now living in KC at the time of the sale and they thought this guy(me) is on the ropes financially with multiple mortgages. Ha!

I have more, but I'll rest. Real estate is not a sure thing in any market - small or large. If you choose to transfer with a company, know the company relocation plan. I've had 19 addresses in my life, so far. Two (2) of those addresses were under the roof of my father and the remaining 17 were my own, split between 7 states, and no I am not military. My history is why I believe I can add to this topic. Conversely, if you buy a house and plan to be there 50 years, even those situations can produce a money loser when the market dips and it will dip. You just aren't going to monetize your house at that point and the dip passes by you with less affect then a south wind.

Don't get me started about real estate being a sure thing and not experiencing a "down" period, or someone saying you're p-i$$ing money down a drain for renting, or you lost money because you bought in a bad location, or the greatest of them all - you're building equity! It's all smiles, BS, rainbows, and unicorns until you are the seller writing a check to pay the loss at closing.

I hope the above can help someone who is on the fence about buying a home and not feeling comfortable. If you're feeling pressured by family, friends or work colleagues to buy, don't allow that to happen. Stand your ground and make your own decision when you feel it's right. Whether you rent or own, just be proud of your home.

Have a great weekend!


Man there are things way past Pecan Grove now, crazy how much Houston has expanded
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:59a, 2/26/22
AG
I've moved enough to have lost on RE transactions a couple of times. It sucks but, like any sort of investing, it happens.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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11:04a, 2/26/22
Let's talk about the zone of genius. Experts often say to invest in your "zone of genius". How rigidly do you all adhere to this?

I feel like I'm at an extraordinary disadvantage here. There is very little exposure to neurosurgery in the marketplace, save for a few large companies, but their stock prices don't move quickly and thus trading it does not move fast.

How can I be an expert in tech or automotives or commodities or anything else? I read a ton and spend a ton of time reading news articles and independent research. But I hardly consider myself an expert at anything in life except spinal surgery, where I did a fellowship in complex and minimally invasive spine surgery.

I welcome any thoughts and hopes this generates some positive discussion. You guys are expert traders. Do I need to be an expert in chips or advertising/tech to trade NVDA/AMD and TTD/SHOP, etc.?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 11:12a, 2/26/22
AG
I work in the TMT industry in a role where I know a lot about all the typical vendors, cloud providers, hardware makers, and media companies. What I think is a good product doesn't always align with what the market thinks is a good product.

There are people here that like Oracle. I won't even take a meeting with them I dislike them so much. Look at what their stock has done.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Madmarttigan
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 11:13a, 2/26/22
AG
I don't know that it is reasonable to restrict yourself to things you are an expert on. I think as a doctor you are smart enough to do some DD and understand it to capable enough degree even if you don't know the intricate details about the technology in which you are investing.

I'm a pharmacist but I avoid biopharm stocks like the plague because even if things sound like a huge deal you are always gambling on what the study data will actually show. I would never be able to invest in anything if I only stuck to things I know in depth.
Formerly tv1113
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 11:20a, 2/26/22
AG
You know a great company? OKTA.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:22a, 2/26/22
AG
An also ran company? Asana.

How do I know, I use their product!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Ragoo
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 11:23a, 2/26/22
AG
I think this zone of genius isn't meant for people like us that have a traditional career.

I am an engineer by degree and work as a project manager by profession tied to the O&G sector. There are many producers that have been mentioned in this thread - especially with the recent run in oil prices - that I would never invest in. I know who our customers are. I know and see the production forecasts. But my career. My salary. My bonus. Etc are directly tied to the industry. So for diversification I invest in mostly tech companies outside of my S&P500 investments.
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Ragoo
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:23a, 2/26/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
You know a great company? OKTA.
their single sign on service is amazing. Basically replaces Citrix.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:32a, 2/26/22
AG
If you guys want, name a tech company and I'll give you my opinion of them. I'll be honest if I don't know enough to say.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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mazag08
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 11:46a, 2/26/22
AG
Your zone of genius is trending toward a mixture of technical and fundamental trading.

You don't have to be a chip maker to understand what makes a chip company profitable and the geopolitical forces that might lead to rises and falls in their stock price.

Use both your career genius and your trading genius.
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mazag08
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:47a, 2/26/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
If you guys want, name a tech company and I'll give you my opinion of them. I'll be honest if I don't know enough to say.


Does BLDE count as a tech company? They are listed as industrial, but to me, being the UBER of big city executive helicopter travel is more aligned with Tech.
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LarryL
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:47a, 2/26/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
If you guys want, name a tech company and I'll give you my opinion of them. I'll be honest if I don't know enough to say.
Not hardware/software tech, but $PYPL
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to LarryL • 11:50a, 2/26/22
LarryL said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
If you guys want, name a tech company and I'll give you my opinion of them. I'll be honest if I don't know enough to say.
Not hardware/software tech, but $PYPL


My experience using PYPL is it sucks
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mazag08
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12:00p, 2/26/22
AG
Outside of O&G and metals (iron, aluminum, gold, silver, etc), the top industries the US imports from Russia are fertilizers, fish, wood/wood charcoal, machinery/reactors/boilers, rubbers, ammunitions, and electrical equipment.

If we start blocking imports, we should come up with a list of US companies that might be set to benefit either from increased sales or inflationary pricing.

Regarding vodka.. maybe see a spike soon in DEO and STZ soon?

Quote:
Publicly-traded liquor companies

In terms of harder alcohol, some of the big players are Diageo (NYSE: DEO), which owns Crown Royal, Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Ketel One, and Baileys; and Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ), which owns Svedka Vodka.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 12:12p, 2/26/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
If you guys want, name a tech company and I'll give you my opinion of them. I'll be honest if I don't know enough to say.


OLED, WIX.
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One time at Banned Camp
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 12:17p, 2/26/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Let's talk about the zone of genius. Experts often say to invest in your "zone of genius". How rigidly do you all adhere to this?

I feel like I'm at an extraordinary disadvantage here. There is very little exposure to neurosurgery in the marketplace, save for a few large companies, but their stock prices don't move quickly and thus trading it does not move fast.

How can I be an expert in tech or automotives or commodities or anything else? I read a ton and spend a ton of time reading news articles and independent research. But I hardly consider myself an expert at anything in life except spinal surgery, where I did a fellowship in complex and minimally invasive spine surgery.

I welcome any thoughts and hopes this generates some positive discussion. You guys are expert traders. Do I need to be an expert in chips or advertising/tech to trade NVDA/AMD and TTD/SHOP, etc.?
You don't have to be in your "zone of genius" to do well with stocks, familiarity with a few over time is way more beneficial. Also, like Mazag08 mentioned, that's a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Have 20-25 that you follow daily and after some time you'll know earning release dates, support, resistance, etc. before you even look it up.
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Diggity
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In reply to Ragoo • 12:28p, 2/26/22
AG
Ragoo said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
You know a great company? OKTA.
their single sign on service is amazing. Basically replaces Citrix.


Isn't OKTA basically a 3PA app? Not sure how that replaces Citrix unless they have an additional suite of products.
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Madmarttigan
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 1:03p, 2/26/22
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:
LarryL said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
If you guys want, name a tech company and I'll give you my opinion of them. I'll be honest if I don't know enough to say.
Not hardware/software tech, but $PYPL


My experience using PYPL is it sucks


Lol I love PayPal and Venmo, basically any time I don't have to enter in my credit card online is a win for me
Formerly tv1113
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Dan Scott
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1:08p, 2/26/22
AG
A lot more chatter about cutting Russia from Swift. Not including this was explained as a reason for the rally last 2 days.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/cutting-russia-off-swift-matter-days-euro-zone-central-banker-2022-02-26/
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Ragoo
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In reply to Diggity • 1:11p, 2/26/22
AG
Diggity said:
Ragoo said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
You know a great company? OKTA.
their single sign on service is amazing. Basically replaces Citrix.


Isn't OKTA basically a 3PA app? Not sure how that replaces Citrix unless they have an additional suite of products.
we use Okta in two ways best I can tell
1) network authorization. When I try to access the network through global protect from outside of the office I have to SSO into OKTA. OKTA then send a push notification to my cell, which is running the company VPN, to confirm me as the person trying to access my account
2) it holds our applications like citrix does. Oracle, learning management, payroll, concur, wonderware, done safe, all of these applications can be accessed through the OKTA portal either on my desktop or phone anywhere.
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Diggity
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In reply to Ragoo • 1:19p, 2/26/22
AG
Gotcha

We use Citrix more as a virtual desktop. Not sure OKTA has that ability.

Sounds like some overlap though.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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2:14p, 2/26/22
AG
BLDE - no opinion. There isn't a huge market so it wouldn't be for me. The tech isn't revolutionary in any way and that's a capital intensive business. How are they unique?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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2:20p, 2/26/22
AG
PayPal - solid business model but facing what I would call extreme competition from Apple Pay, Stripe, Payrole, Google, Affirm, Cash App. Everyone and their mom wants to own payments. I think another headwind is what the big eCommerce sites do: Amazon, Shopify, JD, Alibaba.

I think their best days could be behind them. Truly revolutionary 30 years ago. Not an investor at these multiples.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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2:28p, 2/26/22
AG
Citrix is best known for what I would call in layman's terms a virtual computing desktop experience. They've branched into other areas like identity and access management, but at their core, it's running applications on a virtual environment.

Citrix historically is painful to use, slow AF, and a frustrating experience for the user. It was necessary in some use cases and it's an early 2000s pioneer. Basically it gives an enterprise extreme control of the compute environment.

I think they'll be acquired by Google or Microsoft eventually.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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2:31p, 2/26/22
AG
OLED - demand not going away, but low margin business. Makes quality components.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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2:33p, 2/26/22
AG
WIX - unremarkable. Would have been great 20 years ago. Do you know anyone now that wants to create a website? Me neither.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Jet Black
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In reply to Seven Costanza • 2:37p, 2/26/22
Seven Costanza said:
Jet Black said:
I know a few people that are selling their houses even though they don't really want too. The money is to good to pass up.
And then what? Where are they going?


Rent
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SF2004
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 2:54p, 2/26/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
PayPal - solid business model but facing what I would call extreme competition from Apple Pay, Stripe, Payrole, Google, Affirm, Cash App. Everyone and their mom wants to own payments. I think another headwind is what the big eCommerce sites do: Amazon, Shopify, JD, Alibaba.

I think their best days could be behind them. Truly revolutionary 30 years ago. Not an investor at these multiples.
Visa/Mastercard and the Fed own the payment rails.

Everything else is just a facade and a way to interact with them.

I think there is a "payments" bubble being created that will burst and banks will win out with their solutions... why? They can offer them at lower cost (or even free) with balances, loans, etc.
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ClutchCityAg
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3:08p, 2/26/22
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/02/22/is-palantir-a-good-investment-for-2022/

"As of Dec. 31, 2021, Palantir had $2.3 billion of cash while carrying no debt. During the same period in 2020, Palantir had $2 billion of cash and nearly $200 million of debt on the balance sheet."
Let it ride
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 3:37p, 2/26/22
AG
How about csco? They own duo, everybody uses duo
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 3:44p, 2/26/22
AG
I think it makes more sense to expand your zone of expertise into finance, learn how to read 10ks and whatnot, to be able to decipher the bs companies hoodwink us with. Buffett isn't an expert at private jets, insulation, railroads, and chips. This has been on my to-do list for years
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Charismatic Megafauna • 3:57p, 2/26/22
I'm on board. I recently bought a few more investing books including O'Neil's book. I'm also reading Reminsces of a Stock Operator right now.

Set ups, pitfall avoidances, fake breakouts, inspecting the financials of a company (including 10K evals, etc.). Careful review of past mistakes. This sets the pros apart.

I'm glad what my question was has become good convo for the board on a dull Saturday.

Anyone going to Wade Bowen in Ft Worth tonight?
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agdaddy04
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 4:09p, 2/26/22
AG
Enjoy Wade Bowen! Looks like he's coming up here for Rodeo weekend in April. May have to check it out, but we're seeing Stoney the week before.
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