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austinAG90
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7:22a, 2/22/22
AG
Russia Blinks...10 Years Reverse 10 Basis Points...S+P 90 Points

At 2.27 am 10 year treasuries were at 1.84 on massive volume of over 3.7 billion... S+P futures were at 4260 after bouncing off a strong support level of 4250, and have now rallied up 90 off the lows and are currently flat at 4344... Big moves... While it is not over by a long shot, the west held firm and Putin blinked... At the end of the day, neither Ukraine ,or Russia for that matter, are economic powers, but oil is elevated and WTI did hit 96 and still trading 94..

During London time, when markets reversed, there were headlines that said that Russia had backed off from recognizing wider separatists claims to the Donbas region. Germany also suspended certification process for Nord Stream 2 pipeline, at least for now... So the West held firm and Putin blinked... He can still claim victory in some way if he gets his 700,000 Russians in the Donbas region to now be claimed as Russian citizens...but the longer he keeps 150,000 troops in attack mode, the more expensive it gets.

Rates...both 10 years and 2 years moved while the yield curve flattened. 10 years went from 1.84 to 1.94, 2 years went from 1.412 to 1.54, currently 1.52... We see 10 years with minor support at 1.98 and then back to last weeks high of about 2.07... 2 years , with an auction today, should have good support around 1.60, but more of the rate hikes for 2022 have been taken out by the markets...

Fed hikes... Wirp had gotten to 5.8 last night after rebounding this morning to 6.18.. JPM added to their hawkish view over the weekend saying the Fed will move each meeting over the next 9 consecutive meetings... While we respect their judgement, we do not see it... We still think 4 rate hikes this year and that the Fed will move slowly, especially if we get some movement towards lower inflation through the end of the second quarter... Swap traders scaled back their 50 basis move projections from 56% a week ago to 19% now...Fed's Bowman said that 50 could still happen, but that is not her base case...We have Bostic speaking both today and Thursday. Daly , Barkin, and Mester also speak this week... But we think Waller will be the more interesting Thursday night... And the Big Kahuna speaks next week in front of Congress March 2 and 3... So when Powell speaks we expect to get some clarity..

Inflation... Still a problem... While we think it will subside over the second quarter, the next round of numbers will be bad . PCE Deflator, which is the most important in Fed decision making, is expected to soar to 6% YOY on Friday with the PCE core at 5.2%.. This would both be higher than the previous month... We still think the next CPI on March 10 will be a problem...but Williams, who is part of the top 3 of the Fed, made it clear on Friday that 25 was the more likely move in March...May and June are clearly in play, but we do not see the 7 that many are predicting this year...as we have said before, if the Fed was as Hawkish as the market projects, why would they still be buying bonds until the middle of next month?...

WSJ article over the weekend..."Exodus From Bond Funds Is Mitigating the Stock Markets Swoon" Investors have pulled nearly 160 billion from money market funds and 17.5 billion from bond mutual funds in the first 7 weeks of the year. On pace to be the biggest in 7 years...much of that money has gone into equities.
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Irish 2.0
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7:22a, 2/22/22


No love for DKNG
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FJ43
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7:23a, 2/22/22
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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LMCane
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:07a, 2/22/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Irish 2.0 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Irish 2.0 said:
Engine10 said:
Yo who dropped the big stick on the Q's?
Some MS dip**** is on CNBC saying we're in a bear market. I wouldn't call this market a bear market yet, but it's not really a bull market anymore either
if you removed the big 5, i think it is a bear market.
And if you remove the other stocks it's a bull market. Can't pick and choose what equities to include in an analysis of what type of market we're in. I'm by no means saying it is a bull market, but it's not a bear market either IMO
Technically, a 20%, or greater, downward correction would be needed in the DJIA all time closing high to the DJIA closing low to be considered a bear market and change of direction. Currently, the market is in a Mega Bull Market and has been for a long time; however, there can be Cyclical Bear Markets within a Mega Bull Market. So, what is this current market? IMO it's a wide basing within a Mega Bull Market. I would not be surprised to see the market trade this wide basing the majority of the year. Also, this is a mid-term off Presidential election year. These types of years, mid-term off Presidential election year, tend to provide a great buying opportunity at some point. History proves this over the last 50 to 60 years. Last one was Nov 2018.
Added bonus, is anyone from the Fed speaking tomorrow?

Tomorrow could be the opportunity noted above.

how can the pre-markets be down 500 points for half a day, then 10 hours later when tanks are rolling into UKRAINE and Home Depot misses, and the Germans cancel Nord Stream, the markets have climbed back up 500 points

WTF
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gougler08
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In reply to LMCane • 8:08a, 2/22/22
AG
LMCane said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Irish 2.0 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Irish 2.0 said:
Engine10 said:
Yo who dropped the big stick on the Q's?
Some MS dip**** is on CNBC saying we're in a bear market. I wouldn't call this market a bear market yet, but it's not really a bull market anymore either
if you removed the big 5, i think it is a bear market.
And if you remove the other stocks it's a bull market. Can't pick and choose what equities to include in an analysis of what type of market we're in. I'm by no means saying it is a bull market, but it's not a bear market either IMO
Technically, a 20%, or greater, downward correction would be needed in the DJIA all time closing high to the DJIA closing low to be considered a bear market and change of direction. Currently, the market is in a Mega Bull Market and has been for a long time; however, there can be Cyclical Bear Markets within a Mega Bull Market. So, what is this current market? IMO it's a wide basing within a Mega Bull Market. I would not be surprised to see the market trade this wide basing the majority of the year. Also, this is a mid-term off Presidential election year. These types of years, mid-term off Presidential election year, tend to provide a great buying opportunity at some point. History proves this over the last 50 to 60 years. Last one was Nov 2018.
Added bonus, is anyone from the Fed speaking tomorrow?

Tomorrow could be the opportunity noted above.

how can the pre-markets be down 500 points for half a day, then 10 hours later when tanks are rolling into UKRAINE and Home Depot misses, and the Germans cancel Nord Stream, the markets have climbed back up 500 points

WTF
Maybe this was priced in a month ago?
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LMCane
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:10a, 2/22/22
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I am going to guess that Chevron and Exxon will crush Q1 earnings. I own these. There are probably other O&G that will do well too. I just have a vested interest in these. ..... Oil = +$94/barrel, up $3 and change
I have been buying into oil stocks the last several months and they have done great

but at some point they won't- most likely when the Biden recession begins in 7 months

so what's the point of buying now when you will just have to sell again in a few months and pay taxes without knowing when the high and the low hit.

do any of you guys move around your portfolios like these fund managers every hour on CNBC talk about?

constantly chasing your tail never works
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LMCane
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:12a, 2/22/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Goldman now saying 6% drop if Ukraine situation worsens.

So glad the uptick rule was undone. Money to be made tomorrow. We are gonna retest Jan lows early tomorrow. My guess is they don't hold.

Hang Seng index down 3.1%.

Did I mention what my school mascot is? :-).
how do you explain the futures moving highly upwards in the last few hours based on what you typed above?

everything is counter-intuitive the last few months.

how is the FED going to raise rates into the heart of the economy slowing?
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to LMCane • 8:16a, 2/22/22
You may be right. But let's remember…the market hasn't even opened yet. ;-)
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to LMCane • 8:22a, 2/22/22
LMCane said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Goldman now saying 6% drop if Ukraine situation worsens.

So glad the uptick rule was undone. Money to be made tomorrow. We are gonna retest Jan lows early tomorrow. My guess is they don't hold.

Hang Seng index down 3.1%.

Did I mention what my school mascot is? :-).
how do you explain the futures moving highly upwards in the last few hours based on what you typed above?

everything is counter-intuitive the last few months.

how is the FED going to raise rates into the heart of the economy slowing?
Stop trying to guess what the market will do or what it should 'logically' do.. This is a day trading and scalpers market until we at least reclaim the 200DMA.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:28a, 2/22/22
BaylorSpineGuy said:
You may be right. But let's remember…the market hasn't even opened yet. ;-)

This. It's odd to me that the markets ran up in premarket this morning, but keep in mind that's low volume. The total SPY volume on the run up was ~550k shares, or about 5% of the 10-day average hourly volume during the cash session. Then it has hovered in the 432-434 range since, not continuing to climb. We could truly go big green, big red, or sideways chops and it wouldn't surprise me.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to LMCane • 8:28a, 2/22/22
Quote:
how can the pre-markets be down 500 points for half a day, then 10 hours later when tanks are rolling into UKRAINE and Home Depot misses, and the Germans cancel Nord Stream, the markets have climbed back up 500 points

WTF
LMC, I got my training in the age of the dinosaurs and in commodities, so you can call it dated and unrelated, but here's how I look at it. Pre-Markets and After Markets, in commodities, weren't given the time of day initially. Eventually we found we could trigger technicals in these markets with low volume and low risk to influence the Day Market - the market that matters. If technicals were drivers for market direction (and that's what the experts were saying..) then we wanted to show the road map of where to go, so to speak. I view the equities Pre and After Markets the same way. Day Markets are the driver. There's a poster, Irish 2.0, that posts a lot more here than I do, and he has been posting a similar message regarding After & Pre and I don't want to put words in his mouth because I can't remember his advice verbatim. Net net, pay attention to After & Pre, but I'd focus on Day. There's a lot of things that can happen in After & Pre and it doesn't mean it's natural or logical and sometimes it's, let's say, tweaked a lot more than an action during the Day.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:31a, 2/22/22
Conspiracy time: if you were wanting to recreate a similar environment to the 2020 election, you would need cover for why you are ignoring inflation and continuing to print stimulus. Then all you need is another covid scare and voila. This Russia scare has been stoked by our leaders and media and would give them coverage to keep the stimulus going. Just add in the Zomg variant and we're back as close to the election time as we could get.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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8:33a, 2/22/22
I bought a couple TSLA $875 weeklies. Stop at today's low of 831.
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Txducker
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In reply to Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX • 8:35a, 2/22/22
AG
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
LMC, I got my training in the age of the dinosaurs and in commodities, so you can call it dated and unrelated, but here's how I look at it. Pre-Markets and After Markets, in commodities, weren't given the time of day initially. Eventually we found we could trigger technicals in these markets with low volume and low risk to influence the Day Market - the market that matters. If technicals were drivers for market direction (and that's what the experts were saying..) then we wanted to show the road map of where to go, so to speak. I view the equities Pre and After Markets the same way. Day Markets are the driver. There's a poster, Irish 2.0, that posts a lot more here than I do, and he has been posting a similar message regarding After & Pre and I don't want to put words in his mouth because I can't remember his advice verbatim. Net net, pay attention to After & Pre, but I'd focus on Day. There's a lot of things that can happen in After & Pre and it doesn't mean it's natural or logical and sometimes it's, let's say, tweaked a lot more than an action during the Day.
I appreciate the wisdom and experience this board has, and the willingness to share your knowledge. That is what makes this the best thread ever and why I lurk on it everyday.
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AgShaun00
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8:36a, 2/22/22
AG
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Ragoo
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:44a, 2/22/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
Conspiracy time: if you were wanting to recreate a similar environment to the 2020 election, you would need cover for why you are ignoring inflation and continuing to print stimulus. Then all you need is another covid scare and voila. This Russia scare has been stoked by our leaders and media and would give them coverage to keep the stimulus going. Just add in the Zomg variant and we're back as close to the election time as we could get.
the event has for certain been oversold by the media and "leadership" within government. For sure to try and create a Russian scare narrative back to the Cold War.

When Russian rolls into territory that isn't Ukrainian separatist wanting to be part of Russia then we have an issue.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:45a, 2/22/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
I bought a couple TSLA $875 weeklies. Stop at today's low of 831.


I was in the process of selling these, but too slow. By the time I was ready to hit the place order button, it had reversed with a long tail so I let it ride and bought a couple more and just sold those add on calls for 35% profit. Lucky > Good.
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gougler08
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In reply to Ragoo • 8:51a, 2/22/22
AG
Ragoo said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
Conspiracy time: if you were wanting to recreate a similar environment to the 2020 election, you would need cover for why you are ignoring inflation and continuing to print stimulus. Then all you need is another covid scare and voila. This Russia scare has been stoked by our leaders and media and would give them coverage to keep the stimulus going. Just add in the Zomg variant and we're back as close to the election time as we could get.
the event has for certain been oversold by the media and "leadership" within government. For sure to try and create a Russian scare narrative back to the Cold War.

When Russian rolls into territory that isn't Ukrainian separatist wanting to be part of Russia then we have an issue.
Yep...Ukraine hasn't exactly seemed to care much so far that Russia is waltzing in, almost like they don't really want these territories / the people there are mostly pro-Russia so Putin can have it
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MaroonDynasty
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8:52a, 2/22/22
HD customer count down 3.4 % QOQ, unit sales also down, but average ticket up 12.4%.

May check out some LOW 200 puts here.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to gougler08 • 8:53a, 2/22/22
AG
gougler08 said:
Ragoo said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
Conspiracy time: if you were wanting to recreate a similar environment to the 2020 election, you would need cover for why you are ignoring inflation and continuing to print stimulus. Then all you need is another covid scare and voila. This Russia scare has been stoked by our leaders and media and would give them coverage to keep the stimulus going. Just add in the Zomg variant and we're back as close to the election time as we could get.
the event has for certain been oversold by the media and "leadership" within government. For sure to try and create a Russian scare narrative back to the Cold War.

When Russian rolls into territory that isn't Ukrainian separatist wanting to be part of Russia then we have an issue.
Yep...Ukraine hasn't exactly seemed to care much so far that Russia is waltzing in, almost like they don't really want these territories / the people there are mostly pro-Russia so Putin can have it
Yep. Not sure where the real line is but even Ukrainian leadership isn't pushing back much.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 8:56a, 2/22/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
I bought a couple TSLA $875 weeklies. Stop at today's low of 831.


I was in the process of selling these, but too slow. By the time I was ready to hit the place order button, it had reversed with a long tail so I let it ride and bought a couple more and just sold those add on calls for 35% profit. Lucky > Good.

I was planning to take profit on 1 of these if we reach Friday's close ~857, but SPX and QQQ are already over Friday's close, so I'm not sure if that will offer as much resistance for TSLA as I was worried about. I will still watch for a change in trends close to 9:30 for anything I've gotten in long. First hour fake is a possibility still.
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gougler08
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:00a, 2/22/22
AG
AG 2000' said:
gougler08 said:
Ragoo said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
Conspiracy time: if you were wanting to recreate a similar environment to the 2020 election, you would need cover for why you are ignoring inflation and continuing to print stimulus. Then all you need is another covid scare and voila. This Russia scare has been stoked by our leaders and media and would give them coverage to keep the stimulus going. Just add in the Zomg variant and we're back as close to the election time as we could get.
the event has for certain been oversold by the media and "leadership" within government. For sure to try and create a Russian scare narrative back to the Cold War.

When Russian rolls into territory that isn't Ukrainian separatist wanting to be part of Russia then we have an issue.
Yep...Ukraine hasn't exactly seemed to care much so far that Russia is waltzing in, almost like they don't really want these territories / the people there are mostly pro-Russia so Putin can have it
Yep. Not sure where the real line is but even Ukrainian leadership isn't pushing back much.
I assume it would be at the first pro-Ukraine territory, but my geography isn't that great so no idea where that actually is
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to gougler08 • 9:02a, 2/22/22
AG
gougler08 said:
AG 2000' said:
gougler08 said:
Ragoo said:
Bob Knights Liver said:
Conspiracy time: if you were wanting to recreate a similar environment to the 2020 election, you would need cover for why you are ignoring inflation and continuing to print stimulus. Then all you need is another covid scare and voila. This Russia scare has been stoked by our leaders and media and would give them coverage to keep the stimulus going. Just add in the Zomg variant and we're back as close to the election time as we could get.
the event has for certain been oversold by the media and "leadership" within government. For sure to try and create a Russian scare narrative back to the Cold War.

When Russian rolls into territory that isn't Ukrainian separatist wanting to be part of Russia then we have an issue.
Yep...Ukraine hasn't exactly seemed to care much so far that Russia is waltzing in, almost like they don't really want these territories / the people there are mostly pro-Russia so Putin can have it
Yep. Not sure where the real line is but even Ukrainian leadership isn't pushing back much.
I assume it would be at the first pro-Ukraine territory, but my geography isn't that great so no idea where that actually is
Yep, we're in agreement there.

Honestly, Ukraine might be happy to let the pro-Russia territory go, they've been a PITA for them for years.

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LMCane
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In reply to Saltyag15 • 9:07a, 2/22/22
Saltyag15 said:
This is another prime example of the theory many of us have with the market these days. Whatever you think should happen based on logic and current circumstances, the opposite will likely happen.
literally incredulous at this..

oil at years long highs

inflation at 40 year highs

likely recession in another year

worst war in 70 years in Europe

Stocks move up
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to LMCane • 9:09a, 2/22/22
AG
LMCane said:
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
I am going to guess that Chevron and Exxon will crush Q1 earnings. I own these. There are probably other O&G that will do well too. I just have a vested interest in these. ..... Oil = +$94/barrel, up $3 and change
I have been buying into oil stocks the last several months and they have done great

but at some point they won't- most likely when the Biden recession begins in 7 months

so what's the point of buying now when you will just have to sell again in a few months and pay taxes without knowing when the high and the low hit.

do any of you guys move around your portfolios like these fund managers every hour on CNBC talk about?

constantly chasing your tail never works
Pull up XOP or OIH charts and go back ten years and look at where their prices were under Obama.

The same people who ran the energy dept and EPA are in charge now.

No reason to think oil will fall precipitously.
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TecRecAg
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In reply to LMCane • 9:10a, 2/22/22
AG
It makes sense if you don't think about it.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to LMCane • 9:11a, 2/22/22
AG
LMCane said:
Saltyag15 said:
This is another prime example of the theory many of us have with the market these days. Whatever you think should happen based on logic and current circumstances, the opposite will likely happen.

worst war in 70 years in Europe


Not sure if you were trying to be tongue in cheek over Kamala's comments, but if you weren't, there are numerous European wars between now and the end of WW2 that are significantly worse than what we've seen so far with Russia and Ukraine.
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LMCane
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 9:11a, 2/22/22
Bob Knights Liver said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
You may be right. But let's remember…the market hasn't even opened yet. ;-)

This. It's odd to me that the markets ran up in premarket this morning, but keep in mind that's low volume. The total SPY volume on the run up was ~550k shares, or about 5% of the 10-day average hourly volume during the cash session. Then it has hovered in the 432-434 range since, not continuing to climb. We could truly go big green, big red, or sideways chops and it wouldn't surprise me.


can we discuss the role of the "after markets"?

why even have them?

why allow some to trade after hours and others can't trade?

why not then just have the markets open 24 hours a day like Crypto?
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LMCane
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 9:12a, 2/22/22
AG 2000' said:
LMCane said:
Saltyag15 said:
This is another prime example of the theory many of us have with the market these days. Whatever you think should happen based on logic and current circumstances, the opposite will likely happen.

worst war in 70 years in Europe


Not sure if you were trying to be tongue in cheek over Kamala's comments, but if you weren't, there are numerous European wars between now and the end of WW1 that are significantly worse than what we've seen so far with Russia and Ukraine.
well 70 years is WW2 not WWI

and I assume you mean the wars in Yugoslavia in the latter 90s

but none of them had the firepower or nukes of the Russian Federation.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to LMCane • 9:13a, 2/22/22
Because they're not going to change the market to accomodate for the advent of retail investors.

The game is rigged against retail. You just have to train yourself to stop using logic with trade and using a system (TA) that works.
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Touchless
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9:15a, 2/22/22
AG
DWAC over night. Wow. Still up bigly today for a normal day, but that was over a 60% pop at one point.
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Touchless
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In reply to LMCane • 9:16a, 2/22/22
AG
LMCane said:
AG 2000' said:
LMCane said:
Saltyag15 said:
This is another prime example of the theory many of us have with the market these days. Whatever you think should happen based on logic and current circumstances, the opposite will likely happen.

worst war in 70 years in Europe


Not sure if you were trying to be tongue in cheek over Kamala's comments, but if you weren't, there are numerous European wars between now and the end of WW1 that are significantly worse than what we've seen so far with Russia and Ukraine.
well 70 years is WW2 not WWI

and I assume you mean the wars in Yugoslavia in the latter 90s

but none of them had the firepower or nukes of the Russian Federation.
To be fair, is this even considered a war yet? Has anyone even died?
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to LMCane • 9:20a, 2/22/22
AG
LMCane said:
AG 2000' said:
LMCane said:
Saltyag15 said:
This is another prime example of the theory many of us have with the market these days. Whatever you think should happen based on logic and current circumstances, the opposite will likely happen.

worst war in 70 years in Europe


Not sure if you were trying to be tongue in cheek over Kamala's comments, but if you weren't, there are numerous European wars between now and the end of WW1 that are significantly worse than what we've seen so far with Russia and Ukraine.
well 70 years is WW2 not WWI

and I assume you mean the wars in Yugoslavia in the latter 90s

but none of them had the firepower or nukes of the Russian Federation.
That was a typo, meant WW2.

But yeah, Bosnia, Yugoslavia, Serbia, that was significantly worse than anything we will likely see here.

Who cares about fire power? Just means it's more likely to end quicker. No nukes will be used, not sure why you are bringing that up.
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Sorry, had to.
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SPY and QQQ both testing ORH
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