No wonder you're broke. You're drinking the banquet beer!

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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How long and extended of a correction did he think is coming? The difference between the crises in the early 2000s and now is that our federal debt as percentage of GDP is so much higher now and money printing/govt bailout is not likely gonna be there.

The DJIA looks absolutely horrible right now. It closed literally on the neckline. Failure of a rally now and we could be looking at 20% further correction or possibly more.

I'm looking at DXD and some other inverse dow funds to buy shares and options once the reversal is confirmed.

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There is another very important piece of information to consider when comparing the present to past corrections that I never hear the pundits talk about. The sheer number of people that are in the market has increased exponentially since even the .com bomb.

My mom and dad bought series EE savings bonds with some of every paycheck because their parents bought war bonds so it's what they knew. When I told my dad I was going to be a broker he called me ****ing idiot because he wasn't familiar with it. He passed away 2 years ago, but the 15 years before that he watched the stock market more than I did. The bar he frequented put CNBC on for him as soon as he walked in. I know, dear diary/cool story bro, but here's the point.

I was raised to buy series EE savings bonds but I chose a different path. The youth today, and young professionals, have been raised in households whose parents are in the market. Hell, you have kids trading on Robinhood in high school now. The pool of individuals that are in the market is massive even compared to the '90s and getting larger everyday. That's why corrections no longer have a timeframe because when sentiment changes FOMO is real and they turn into piranhas.

Sorry for the long post but had a good day and a few beers.

My best friend, he's an Ag too '95, is clearing some land that has some mature oaks that have to go, so I bought a new toy today.

Tho skeptical, I bought a battery powered chainsaw a few months ago and I was very impressed by what it could do. Granted, the chain arm is like 1/3 the length of yours.

ProgN said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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How long and extended of a correction did he think is coming? The difference between the crises in the early 2000s and now is that our federal debt as percentage of GDP is so much higher now and money printing/govt bailout is not likely gonna be there.

The DJIA looks absolutely horrible right now. It closed literally on the neckline. Failure of a rally now and we could be looking at 20% further correction or possibly more.

I'm looking at DXD and some other inverse dow funds to buy shares and options once the reversal is confirmed.

---

There is another very important piece of information to consider when comparing the present to past corrections that I never hear the pundits talk about. The sheer number of people that are in the market has increased exponentially since even the .com bomb.

My mom and dad bought series EE savings bonds with some of every paycheck because their parents bought war bonds so it's what they knew. When I told my dad I was going to be a broker he called me ****ing idiot because he wasn't familiar with it. He passed away 2 years ago, but the 15 years before that he watched the stock market more than I did. The bar he frequented put CNBC on for him as soon as he walked in. I know, dear diary/cool story bro, but here's the point.

I was raised to buy series EE savings bonds but I chose a different path. The youth today, and young professionals, have been raised in households whose parents are in the market. Hell, you have kids trading on Robinhood in high school now. The pool of individuals that are in the market is massive even compared to the '90s and getting larger everyday. That's why corrections no longer have a timeframe because when sentiment changes FOMO is real and they turn into piranhas.

Sorry for the long post but had a good day and a few beers.

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Great post here!

We really don't know what to expect but I am certain there are high school students buying and selling stocks and crypto on Robinhood. I think the 20-21 market year where you won no matter what drew a lot of people in. Last year with small caps getting crushed probably demoralized a lot of people trying to find the next big thing. If the sell off continues there is no telling how the new investors will respond but it would not be surprising to see them get out of the market if they get burned too bad.

Also, something to think about that isn't discussed much on here ( which makes sense because it's a stock market thread) but there are a ton of young people buying and selling nfts using crypto ( mainly ethereum)

I have talked with former students of mine who are living the NFT life. I still don't get it but it is another place where money is moving

I was invited to my neighbor's 50th birthday party tonight. They rented out a local event center and had a casino night. Love me a good crown and sprite (especially when no bourbon is available). Her husband introduced me to one of their good friends, a guy they call "The Money Man". He's the senior guy at one of the local Merrill sites.

I half-jokingly said to him, "are you ready for the excitement on Tuesday?" He looked at me like he had no idea what I was talking about. I then showed him the DJIA chart over the last 6 months. I then said…."does this not look ominous to you? Am I totally wrong?"

His comment was, "we don't really follow the technicals." I said…so you're based on fundamentals, then? He replied, "we are hedged any way, so we're not really that concerned."

Wow. Literally they guy the call "Money Man" hasn't noticed the most bearish pattern seen on the DOW in the last 15 yrs. Hmmmm, ok. Don't they say crashes happen when people least expect it? Count me spooked. The greed-fear index isn't blown out either like it was in September. I'm not going long or short till the market shows its cards, but I'm at least aware of the situation.

Those type of guys don't ever look at charts, They are fundamental long term investors, which everyone should be also. But the majority of this thread is trading, very different look at things.

Geez, could you not have gone to USF instead of Baylor?

Charismatic Megafauna said:

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https://twitter.com/oldarmy1/status/1494356454874226691?cxt=HHwWhoC5yefRgr0pAAAA

Ostk for $35 is sell your kids territory, right?

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I believe in it, but it is annoying to sit through the volatility. They make money and e commerce won't go away.

I'll post what I do when we break the neckline. I am expecting a rally to 4700 and then a relentless multiple quarter sell off.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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I was invited to my neighbor's 50th birthday party tonight. They rented out a local event center and had a casino night. Love me a good crown and sprite (especially when no bourbon is available). Her husband introduced me to one of their good friends, a guy they call "The Money Man". He's the senior guy at one of the local Merrill sites.

I half-jokingly said to him, "are you ready for the excitement on Tuesday?" He looked at me like he had no idea what I was talking about. I then showed him the DJIA chart over the last 6 months. I then said…."does this not look ominous to you? Am I totally wrong?"

His comment was, "we don't really follow the technicals." I said…so you're based on fundamentals, then? He replied, "we are hedged any way, so we're not really that concerned."

Wow. Literally they guy the call "Money Man" hasn't noticed the most bearish pattern seen on the DOW in the last 15 yrs. Hmmmm, ok. Don't they say crashes happen when people least expect it? Count me spooked. The greed-fear index isn't blown out either like it was in September. I'm not going long or short till the market shows its cards, but I'm at least aware of the situation.

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These people are sales men and all they really do is charge you a commission / fees to be involved in funds and occasionally private investments if you have enough money. They spit out whatever their internal research is on stocks. I would personally want to fade any stock recommendation a broker makes - because it's at that point a popular stock.

I think people are bearish right now. The play, I think, is to avert disaster this time, suck everyone in long, and then drop it. I think we are in the bull trap dip.

High beta stocks are in the fear / capitulation phase.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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I was invited to my neighbor's 50th birthday party tonight. They rented out a local event center and had a casino night. Love me a good crown and sprite (especially when no bourbon is available). Her husband introduced me to one of their good friends, a guy they call "The Money Man". He's the senior guy at one of the local Merrill sites.

I half-jokingly said to him, "are you ready for the excitement on Tuesday?" He looked at me like he had no idea what I was talking about. I then showed him the DJIA chart over the last 6 months. I then said…."does this not look ominous to you? Am I totally wrong?"

His comment was, "we don't really follow the technicals." I said…so you're based on fundamentals, then? He replied, "we are hedged any way, so we're not really that concerned."

Wow. Literally they guy the call "Money Man" hasn't noticed the most bearish pattern seen on the DOW in the last 15 yrs. Hmmmm, ok. Don't they say crashes happen when people least expect it? Count me spooked. The greed-fear index isn't blown out either like it was in September. I'm not going long or short till the market shows its cards, but I'm at least aware of the situation.

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Not surprising at all really. I've posted this before but it was way before you joined our club. NO ONE, that follows this thread should rely on someone else for their own financial future because you're intelligent enough to do it yourself. Brokers, money managers, advisors want to out pace the S&P so you won't leave and they make a percentage off your account. That's their main priority. Everyone that religiously opens this thread daily, both active and lurker, can do better because nobody cares about your money more than you. You just have to learn to separate and control your impulses and emotions. Keep retirement account decisions there and risk to your trading account and never mix the two. I may be wrong but I think it was 30K that way outperformed his advisor in his own account over the same period. Apologies if it wasn't 30K but it was someone and I'm not going back to find it. JMO, take it how you will.

theNetSmith said:

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Tho skeptical, I bought a battery powered chainsaw a few months ago and I was very impressed by what it could do. Granted, the chain arm is like 1/3 the length of yours.

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that's what she said!

crypto is about to fall off a cliff if you ask me (H&S on most names, ETH really looks like ****). That isn't good for the markets and ice cream Joe is going to speak about crypto regulation next week.

I'm not so sure we see a bounce just yet.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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Not sure I follow….

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Sorry, just a little college mascot humor

At, gotcha! I couldn't figure out where you were going with that, but all clear now lol.

Just not a Razorback. Don't wanna get slaughtered :-)

There's a lot of pent up angst and trepidation right now. If Russia doesn't invade by Monday then they probably aren't going to. That means that China won't move on Taiwan either. If that happens we could be in for a heck of a relief rally. It's going to be an interesting next 48 hours.

Often on our forum I see the application of an investing mentality to a trade and a trade mentality to investing. They are not the same. You have to decide in advance when you take a position which it is for you.

It's ok and normal to be both as a 'manager' of your money. Some, maybe most, of your money may be geared to long term investing. Then some, probably less, is a trade, swing or scalp to generate smaller more frequent profits that over time compound to greater returns. One requires great levels of discipline and execution without emotion. One is far more active by its definition.

They are different games toward the same end goal. Grow and protect your wealth. This forum discusses both, however, it mostly discusses trades intraday. Throw in OAs net free strategy, long term fundamental value plays, mass accumulation strategies, etc and you get some investing balance. You'll also see 30k, Prog, etc share some value ideas that they believe in fundamentally. Most of the long time posters on here play both games and offer ideas for both.

For me I love trading vs investing. Investing is boring to me but I also use and respect its purpose and strategy.


https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/difference-investing-trading.asp

One of the local surgeons I know (orthopedic spine surgeon) is a really wealthy guy originally from west Texas. His family is wealthy from oil, so he basically practiced medicine for its enjoyment and not as a primary income source.

Anyway, he got plugged in with some BTC mining thing a few years ago and was its Angel investor. He literally became a BTC billionaire. I spoke to him a few weeks ago and he states their company mines more efficiently, etc., than RIOT and MARA. They mined something like 20-30% more BTC in 4Q than their competitors. They are set to debut on the NASDAQ this month.

He's literally retiring from medicine and I think he's moving to Puerto Rico.

If this market collapses, BTC won't be the hedge against inflation that the Winklevoss morons think it is. I can almost guarantee you those two sold their bags $30K/BTC ago.

Will see how this plays out but I sold all my crypto a month ago. Didn't get the $/coin I wanted but I wasn't about to be the last one out the door.

Good opportunity to continue dollar cost averaging into BTC.