Max Stonetrail said:

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It's hard to be long anything more than 5 minutes in this market with the impending threat of invasion, because everything (with the possible exception of energy and defense) will crater initially.

Even if they do invade, I don't think it will last long before resolution one way or the other and prices will recover from that.

The bigger long term enemy of the bull market right now is the Fed.

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You better worry about China attacking Taiwan more than anything else.

ProgN said:

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Max Stonetrail said:

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It's hard to be long anything more than 5 minutes in this market with the impending threat of invasion, because everything (with the possible exception of energy and defense) will crater initially.

Even if they do invade, I don't think it will last long before resolution one way or the other and prices will recover from that.

The bigger long term enemy of the bull market right now is the Fed.

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You better worry about China attacking Taiwan more than anything else.

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That is going to FUBAR the semi stocks

It's going to FUBAR all stocks. That's what worries me the most, more than Russia/Ukraine or the Fed.

Why does everyone think China will attack Taiwan?

I've seen you post these but I haven't gotten a clear understanding of what this means. Obviously it's bullish or bearish and helps give a reference of the magnitude, but what are we specifically noting? Is it a price weighted hourly volume?

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why does everyone think China will attack Taiwan?

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I think it's just speculatively connecting dots with the Putin-Xi meeting, the fact that Russian potentially moving on Ukraine is big news, and the fact that China has long made claims on Taiwan.

LMCane said:

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is mass volatility good for you day traders?

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I love it, but I broke a rule of mine today and it cost me a bit...otherwise would've had another green scalping day.

I watch VIX while scalping (usually)...today was harder to do that with the spike and then the slow grind back.

$CIDM
I havent seen the results but im guessing earnings went well based on the alerts im getting

cptthunder said:

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$CIDM
I havent seen the results but im guessing earnings went well based on the alerts im getting

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ha, I could handle it quadrupling from where it is now.

2wealfth Man said:

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ProgN said:

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Max Stonetrail said:

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It's hard to be long anything more than 5 minutes in this market with the impending threat of invasion, because everything (with the possible exception of energy and defense) will crater initially.

Even if they do invade, I don't think it will last long before resolution one way or the other and prices will recover from that.

The bigger long term enemy of the bull market right now is the Fed.

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You better worry about China attacking Taiwan more than anything else.

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That is going to FUBAR the stocks

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All of them.

More ammo for a big breakout from the fertilizer side of things. Here is the newly released quarterly report from a Dutch Company (OCI NV) which pretty much provides a direct window into the coming earnings and market outlook for CF Industries (CF), Mosiac (MOS) and CVR Partners (UAN).

https://www.oci.nl/media/2002/oci-nv-q4-2021-results-report_vf.pdf

On page 1, they are going to start throwing cash at shareholders. Page 2 on the nitrogen markets commentary really highlights the structural longer term factors which will sustain this upside for a bit.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why does everyone think China will attack Taiwan?

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Over the past 2 months China has been entering Taiwan's airspace with fighters and bombers then turning back. China has a "One China" policy that includes Taiwan. We've set up Patriot missile batteries in Taiwan over the last few weeks. Speculation is that China will hit after the Olympics as Russia is rolling through Ukraine.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why does everyone think China will attack Taiwan?

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The CCP leadership gets pretty irrational and hot-headed when it comes to Taiwan and "saving face" on the international stage. They are very concerned about looking weak internally and losing a grip on things. Additionally, the military mostly runs things there behind the scenes.

Remember that they consider the Taiwanese their country men. China is extremely patient (e.g. with Hong Kong).

2wealfth Man said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why does everyone think China will attack Taiwan?

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The CCP leadership gets pretty irrational and hot-headed when it comes to Taiwan and "saving face" on the international stage. They are very concerned about looking weak internally and losing a grip on things. Additionally, the military mostly runs things there behind the scenes.

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I would counter this by asking: "is the same CCP that has spent the last 30 years positioning itself into a focal point of the global economy, going to risk all of that by invading Taiwan simply because they are suddenly hot headed and culturally feel its theirs?"

They don't need a land war to further their goal of global domination. They'll continue to do so via economic means and cornering the market on the 'green economy'.

EDIT: I guess another way to put it: they long gamed the global economy, long gamed Hong Kong, long gamed US academia, long gamed the UN, what's to say they suddenly blow all that on a Taiwan invasion? It just doesn't make sense to me.

2wealfth Man said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why does everyone think China will attack Taiwan?

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The CCP leadership gets pretty irrational and hot-headed when it comes to Taiwan and "saving face" on the international stage. They are very concerned about looking weak internally and losing a grip on things. Additionally, the military mostly runs things there behind the scenes.

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Taiwan is very strategic to China. Most of their economy is shipping bulk materials and products so securing open sea routes would be necessary in the event of open war. This is the same reason they've been claiming offshore waters all the way down to Vietnam and Thailand for years. Taiwan being a huge producer of tech products also doesn't hurt.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why does everyone think China will attack Taiwan?

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I would start with the fact that they regularly shell Taiwans outpost islands

PWestAg18 said:

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2wealfth Man said:

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$30,000 Millionaire said:

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Why does everyone think China will attack Taiwan?

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The CCP leadership gets pretty irrational and hot-headed when it comes to Taiwan and "saving face" on the international stage. They are very concerned about looking weak internally and losing a grip on things. Additionally, the military mostly runs things there behind the scenes.

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I would counter this by asking: "is the same CCP that has spent the last 30 years positioning itself into a focal point of the global economy, going to risk all of that by invading Taiwan simply because they are suddenly hot headed and culturally feel its theirs?"

They don't need a land war to further their goal of global domination. They'll continue to do so via economic means and cornering the market on the 'green economy'.

EDIT: I guess another way to put it: they long gamed the global economy, long gamed Hong Kong, long gamed US academia, long gamed the UN, what's to say they suddenly blow all that on a Taiwan invasion? It just doesn't make sense to me.

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you don't think like a People's Army general

Do you think they are positioning themselves in that place to be rich or to wield power and be insulated from US attack.

Sully Dog said:

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Do you think they are positioning themselves in that place to be rich or to wield power and be insulated from US attack.

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Both. As of February 2022 I don't think they're at the point where they can pull off a full land invasion of Taiwan and get away with it on an international scale. They might not get a military response from the US if they invaded tomorrow, but I think it would be the final straw for a lot of the western governments and companies that deal with them and we would actually see an economic decoupling. It would be a very painful scenario for everyone on the planet, but that's how I see that scenario playing out.

Conversely, if they keep going on the path they're going, I could see them getting away with it in 10 years. Especially if Europe keeps going the route it's going with its energy sector.

My bad

ASAN closing over the 50 might be interesting. Earnings 3/10

On $50K account:

• TTD still OK, you can get out for cheaper if you don't want to hold through earnings
• KO - I was worried about this when it dripped into the 50s, but now that it's closed back above $60.50, I'm a bit less worried. This is a stable company that pays a dividend. If it goes below $58, probably a cut
• APA - sold off more than I was expecting. We sold the ATM calls for this week for over $1, so our cost basis will be around $33 if we don't get assigned this week. Also a good company, I'll be worried under $30
• PLTR - doing exactly what we hope it will, just need to wait
• NEM - solid day today, doing nothing on this, I want to see if this can take out $65. May consolidate for a bit. I'll think about selling calls
• DKNG - still up on this, not the best day, but a small position. I'm not surprised it was down with the market and the super bowl being yesterday. Premium is pretty good on this, so my plan here is to keep mining it unless we go under $20/share
• CENX - small position but this has broken out. Let's see if we can clear 19.6. This does not have weeklies, so I want this to spike before we sell calls on it. Hopefully today wasn't the spike.

FJ43 said:

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ASAN closing over the 50 might be interesting. Earnings 3/10

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We should bottom fish for $60.

One for y'all to keep an eye on.....

SPLK

Closed over 50EMA and first fib. See volume profile.

They're on acquisition watch I believe

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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FJ43 said:

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ASAN closing over the 50 might be interesting. Earnings 3/10

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We should bottom fish for $60.

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I'm in. Alerts set.

Irish 2.0 said:

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They're on acquisition watch I believe

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Good to know. Earnings 3/2 as well.