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24,028,650 Views | 231616 Replies | Last: 8 hrs ago by ProgN
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3:30p, 2/3/22
AG
Just got home from dinner. Hell yea AMZN.

EVERYBODY and their dog and everything I read predicted bad earnings non stop today. Always fade the masses. Always. It's so predictable and easy yet hard.

Pouring a pre bedtime whisky. Weeks like this make me wish I was a full time trader. Can make a killing fading the mass of idiots.


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McInnis 03
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3:32p, 2/3/22
AG
I wish I was Dustin.


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FTAG 2000
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 3:37p, 2/3/22
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:
So we green tomorrow?!?
Still got those job numbers coming out tomorrow.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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3:38p, 2/3/22
I still take every BS article on $SAVA with a grain of salt, but articles like this one from Seeking Alpha keep giving me hope.

Quote:
  • For at least several days, comments on Seeking Alpha have disclosed that retail longs are receiving telephone calls from their brokers, asking if they are willing to loan their shares.

  • Borrow rates are approaching 80%, and depending on the broker, there have been cases when there have been few or no shares available for borrowing.

  • I have never seen a case where the borrow rate is this high and/or retail investors receive telephone calls from their stockbrokers asking if they are willing to loan their shares to shorts.


I recommend that you buy-and-hold stock in Cassava Sciences, not just for a possible short squeeze but for the long-term and market-based upward drift in price-per-share that all longs expect.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4483722-cassava-sciences-sava-trading-activity-presents-opportunity
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 3:43p, 2/3/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
I still take every BS article on $SAVA with a grain of salt, but articles like this one from Seeking Alpha keep giving me hope.

Quote:
  • For at least several days, comments on Seeking Alpha have disclosed that retail longs are receiving telephone calls from their brokers, asking if they are willing to loan their shares.
  • Borrow rates are approaching 80%, and depending on the broker, there have been cases when there have been few or no shares available for borrowing.
  • I have never seen a case where the borrow rate is this high and/or retail investors receive telephone calls from their stockbrokers asking if they are willing to loan their shares to shorts.


I recommend that you buy-and-hold stock in Cassava Sciences, not just for a possible short squeeze but for the long-term and market-based upward drift in price-per-share that all longs expect.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4483722-cassava-sciences-sava-trading-activity-presents-opportunity

The FDA response to the citizen's petition is due in two weeks (2/18). Yes, due on OPEX.

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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to cptthunder • 3:45p, 2/3/22
AG
cptthunder said:
My stupid SPY 456C lotto isnt looking bad as of right now

I bought one right before the close for . 48, sold 2 minutes later for .7
$20 is $20
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JCRiley09
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3:48p, 2/3/22
AG
$U
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 3:57p, 2/3/22
I have an irresponsible amount of 2/18 call spreads. I also have lots of May, Jan2023, and Jan2024, but those 2/18 got way too cheap for the gambler in me to ignore. If nothing I'd go net free pretty quick with those should we have any sort of squeeze on the run up to 2/18.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 3:57p, 2/3/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
I have an irresponsible amount of 2/18 call spreads. I also have lots of May, Jan2023, and Jan2024, but those 2/18 got way too cheap for the gambler in me to ignore. If nothing I'd go net free pretty quick with those should we have any sort of squeeze on the run up to 2/18.
Same.

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Max Stonetrail
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 4:01p, 2/3/22
AG 2000' said:
BrokeAssAggie said:
So we green tomorrow?!?
Still got those job numbers coming out tomorrow.
Yep. I am going to try to save myself some stress by not looking until after 7:30am tomorrow.
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Touchless
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4:05p, 2/3/22
AG
So I thought the consensus was no one was really playing AMZN earnings because of the high cost for even a lotto. Curious why everyone is so pumped about the action. Unless it's just based off shares that you've already held previously.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Touchless • 4:06p, 2/3/22
AG
Touchless said:
So I thought the consensus was no one was really playing AMZN earnings because of the high cost for even a lotto. Curious why everyone is so pumped about the action. Unless it's just based off shares that you've already held previously.
In the small account trading with 30K leading the way, he suggested grabbing a share for earnings as a lotto.

It hit.
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Touchless
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 4:06p, 2/3/22
AG
BrokeAssAggie said:
This dude though, yeah. That was probably like 1300 options or something. Maybe more. He's loving this action.
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Max Stonetrail
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 4:08p, 2/3/22
McInnis 03 said:
SNAP is still going, holy crap. 24 to 34
I don't have the stars to post a chart for SNAP, but if it had not had the crater yesterday and today, it is trading right where the trend line would be if you started drawing last Friday.
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Touchless
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 4:08p, 2/3/22
AG
Ah, thanks. I missed that. Guess the thought was if it tanks you're likely just losing a couple hundred bucks and can likely recover over a few months if you waited it out but if it rockets then you likely gain a couple with the chance of it really crushing like it has?
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to Touchless • 4:08p, 2/3/22
Touchless said:
So I thought the consensus was no one was really playing AMZN earnings because of the high cost for even a lotto. Curious why everyone is so pumped about the action. Unless it's just based off shares that you've already held previously.


It's not necessarily what AMZN ER was; It's the sentiment it created in the market since the FAANG ER is over. FAANG went 3/5 on blowout ERs. FB's was slaughtered, but not to the tune of 25%.
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sts7049
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In reply to Touchless • 4:13p, 2/3/22
AG
i bought one share just before closing
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Dan Scott
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4:16p, 2/3/22
AG
I think majority of AMZN earnings from rivian. 11.4B of total 14.4b net income is categorized as other.

Rivian YTD down 40% so they won't beat again

https://s2.q4cdn.com/299287126/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/business_and_financial_update.pdf
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Touchless • 4:16p, 2/3/22
AG
Touchless said:
Ah, thanks. I missed that. Guess the thought was if it tanks you're likely just losing a couple hundred bucks and can likely recover over a few months if you waited it out but if it rockets then you likely gain a couple with the chance of it really crushing like it has?
Yeah there were two other thoughts too -

1 - maybe they announce a split like GOOG did

2 - It was dropped in response to FB all day today, and a lot of the loss was already 'baked in' if they missed.
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Diggity
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In reply to Dan Scott • 4:20p, 2/3/22
AG
NM
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Dan Scott
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In reply to Diggity • 4:23p, 2/3/22
AG
Diggity said:
does Rivian have any income?


Rivian has no earnings. Amazon owns 160M shares so YTD they are down about 6B on Rivian. They have to mark to market rivian stake for earnings so if nothing changes Amzn is already in the whole 6B for 1Q earnings and their base business is not profitable enough. They could report a loss for Q1
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to Dan Scott • 4:27p, 2/3/22
Dan Scott said:
Diggity said:
does Rivian have any income?


Rivian has no earnings. Amazon owns 160M shares so YTD they are down about 6B on Rivian


That's not correct. AMZN invested ~$4B in RIVN and owns ~20%. They're not down at all.

https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/.amp/news/rivians-importance-to-amazons-long-term-strategy
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Diggity
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In reply to Dan Scott • 4:30p, 2/3/22
AG
thanks. I read up on it right after I posted that question.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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4:31p, 2/3/22
AG
the value of an investment has zero bearing on EPS unless the company is taking a write down or impairment. Amazon's stake in Rivian would not be reported as a loss unless they impaired. You do need to watch for companies with excessive goodwill, which is intangible value on balance sheets meant to reflect something like the value of a company's brand or pending sales that have not yet materialized.
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Dan Scott
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:36p, 2/3/22
AG
I don't that's right. They'd have to mark to market like Berkshire does.

Is there a CPA in here?
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Brewmaster
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In reply to SF2004 • 4:38p, 2/3/22
AG
SF2004 said:
I dont have the balls to play lottos... just feels like gambling.
next time we come up on a big name with earnings, I'm doing a strangle with verticals (especially if the market is top heavy or oversold). These would've paid big on FB, MSFT and AMZN (I think even on AAPL too). Of course if the market is in no man's land, could also just chop and get chopped to pieces.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 4:43p, 2/3/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
ok, so I have a lotto sized QQQ360C in my main account and 1 share of AMZN in our small account.
great call! I missed this, but was already long some SPY verticals.

especially on the 1 share of AMZN, great way to play it. I totally missed the move.
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Spoony Love
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4:45p, 2/3/22
AG
I'm glad I was completely wrong. And here I was complaining about shipping times and I received an order a day earlier than promised.

Great play on the single share.
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BrokeAssAggie
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5:29p, 2/3/22
Time for a big glass of bourbon to celebrate those AH Q calls
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ProgN
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 5:35p, 2/3/22
AG 2000' said:
BrokeAssAggie said:
So we green tomorrow?!?
Still got those job numbers coming out tomorrow.
Market is already expecting a negative number
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Irish 2.0
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5:46p, 2/3/22
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SF2004
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In reply to ProgN • 5:48p, 2/3/22
AG
ProgN said:
AG 2000' said:
BrokeAssAggie said:
So we green tomorrow?!?
Still got those job numbers coming out tomorrow.
Market is already expecting a negative number
The market also knows about rate hikes and still went to ATH and took a *****

That doesn't matter.
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Ag CPA
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In reply to Dan Scott • 6:28p, 2/3/22
AG
Dan Scott said:
I don't that's right. They'd have to mark to market like Berkshire does.

Is there a CPA in here?
You are correct, I think they got a $11B gain on the Rivian shares.
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bmoochie
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In reply to Ag CPA • 6:43p, 2/3/22
AG
Ag CPA said:
Dan Scott said:
I don't that's right. They'd have to mark to market like Berkshire does.

Is there a CPA in here?
You are correct, I think they got a $11B gain on the Rivian shares.


Username checks out
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$30,000 Millionaire
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6:48p, 2/3/22
AG
A nominal amount of stock as a lotto for earnings makes sense under the following conditions:

  • You believe in the company and would own the stock anyway
  • Sentiment is worth fading (AMZN was down 7% today before the report)
  • Position size and risk is sufficiently small. In the case of the $50K account it's a 6% position, but the risk really isn't that large. The stock wouldn't go down by 50%, at most it would go down 10%, which is a 0.6% loss. Tolerable IMO
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