Ah yea, I remember you saying that a few years ago. Makes sense. My Asian & Indian colleagues work later schedules to align more with us in Europe and Africa. It's the damn disrespectful lazy American contingent that makes me work into dinner time that is annoying AF. So I just refuse to start before 8:30-9:00 or so.Irish 2.0 said:
I'm at my desk at 3:30-4 most mornings. The joys of working with 95% Asian clientele.
Also why I drink two pots of coffee and an energy drink every day. My cardiologist said I'm going to give him a heart attack.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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I was mostly just kidding, but mid 40's is when the early morning trips to the bathroom began being mocked by the wife.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Irish hit the nail on the head for me as well. Too many years working on Asia late afternoon time.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
That Omen is a new one to me so I went to Investopedia to learn more. Said it had a 25% success rate.
Twenty-five percent of the time it works every time.
The 'Mary Jane' is what wakes me up in the middle of the night to pee. I keep a Yeti full of water next to my bed and the cottonmouth gets me to drink the whole damn thing before I fall asleep.Bob Knights Liver said:
I was mostly just kidding, but mid 40's is when the early morning trips to the bathroom began being mocked by the wife.
For the record, keep me in the Rivian short club. I just don't see how they're gonna make a true maintainable niche for themselves. They're gonna have to beat Ford et al to autonomous or hit the Amazon van thing outta the park and try to win that way.
The R1T is just doomed in my mind. Cost is first and primary barrier to EV adoption in my mind. Base cost? 67k. F150 lightning base? 45k. Not to mention Ford has the ranger and maverick production up and running to compete in a similar market, with rumors of a Ranger EV conversion hitting the market before 2025.
The R1T is just doomed in my mind. Cost is first and primary barrier to EV adoption in my mind. Base cost? 67k. F150 lightning base? 45k. Not to mention Ford has the ranger and maverick production up and running to compete in a similar market, with rumors of a Ranger EV conversion hitting the market before 2025.
Who's gonna sacrifice a live chicken this morning?
I know some people that sacrifice a few million/weekProgN said:
Who's gonna sacrifice a live chicken this morning?
ProgN said:
Who's gonna sacrifice a live chicken this morning?
It's damn near time to break out Gus bro…
We may need him here shortly.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Just looked at the futures…
See you Monday.
See you Monday.
Oh boy..... CYA in effect (albeit a little late) or somebody has some explaining to do.
$PTON CEO: Rumors of production halt are false.
— Stock Talk Weekly 🎙 (@stocktalkweekly) January 21, 2022
Ccutamu said:
Oh boy.....$PTON CEO: Rumors of production halt are false.
— Stock Talk Weekly 🎙 (@stocktalkweekly) January 21, 2022
They're slightly red right now, but I ain't scared...Quote:
I bought PTON leaps here. Took 5 of the Jan 23 20C at 11.5.
Don't try to buy this as a scalp. It looks like it has a h on the 5min. I got leaps for a reason
They IPO'd between 27-29. They deserved a lot of their beating, but not back to their IPO beating. Their current market cap is ~$11B and they're doing ~$3B/yr in revenue. Yeah, I'll gamble some on this.
Red? They're up a couple of bucks from yesterday's close.Irish 2.0 said:Ccutamu said:
Oh boy.....$PTON CEO: Rumors of production halt are false.
— Stock Talk Weekly 🎙 (@stocktalkweekly) January 21, 2022They're slightly red right now, but I ain't scared...Quote:
I bought PTON leaps here. Took 5 of the Jan 23 20C at 11.5.
Don't try to buy this as a scalp. It looks like it has a h on the 5min. I got leaps for a reason
My leaps are slightly red from my purchase, Not the current equity price
My prediction on the NQ_F, We're gonna get into the 14500s today and then see a face ripper to kill the people trying to short late in the game today.
Gotcha... duh.Irish 2.0 said:
My leaps are slightly red from my purchase, Not the current equity price
That would set up this, which is very possible:Irish 2.0 said:
My prediction on the NQ_F, We're gonna get into the 14500s today and then see a face ripper to kill the people trying to short late in the game today.
It'd be worse if futures were green... In the current environment, gap ups get faded and get extremely aggressive once they lose opening lows.
I understand EW for the most part, just not much of a believer in it personally. Though some people obviously know how to trade it well.
I loathe Elliot Wave Theory as it typically only makes sense in hindsight, and looking forward, there are too many forks in the road. A lot of those technicals used to work and just don't any more due to advanced and ever changing algos and explosion of options driving underlying price.Irish 2.0 said:
I understand EW for the most part, just not much of a believer in it personally. Though some people obviously know how to trade it well.
That's just a good old classic H&S pattern.
HA! I see it now. Dammit I shouldn't have drank all the Widow Jane last night59 South said:I loathe Elliot Wave Theory as it typically only makes sense in hindsight, and looking forward, there are too many forks in the road. A lot of those technicals used to work and just don't any more due to advanced and ever changing algos and explosion of options driving underlying price.Irish 2.0 said:
I understand EW for the most part, just not much of a believer in it personally. Though some people obviously know how to trade it well.
That's just a good old classic H&S pattern.
59 South
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Ccutamu said:
Oh boy..... CYA in effect (albeit a little late) or somebody has some explaining to do.$PTON CEO: Rumors of production halt are false.
— Stock Talk Weekly 🎙 (@stocktalkweekly) January 21, 2022
From the comments, "right sizing production" vs halt. Too late my guy, the damage is done. All is not lost though, did some deeper reading into their biz last night. I think the real trouble comes when you see the fitness sub churn start to jump. Those have remained steady or even dropped through 2021.
A pandemic level repricing was inevitable, but it's not because the product sucks, people just aren't going to be home as much to use them. People love the bikes but are loyal to trainers only on the PTON platform. If you see the subs start to churn higher, then the real trouble has arrived IMO.
It's the right move to slash costs in the face of dropping demand for the physical product, and jump started a pricing drop that was likely going to come anyway.
Using RSI 5 we are in oversold territory not seen since March 2020 (Covid breakdown).
Using RSI 9 we are at/close to those levels.
We shall see.
Using RSI 9 we are at/close to those levels.
We shall see.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Dude why you being so negative on a Friday morning !59 South said:That would set up this, which is very possible:Irish 2.0 said:
My prediction on the NQ_F, We're gonna get into the 14500s today and then see a face ripper to kill the people trying to short late in the game today.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
59 South said:That would set up this, which is very possible:Irish 2.0 said:
My prediction on the NQ_F, We're gonna get into the 14500s today and then see a face ripper to kill the people trying to short late in the game today.
Damn you and Irish must be a blast at parties.
PTON is about to be hit with class action lawsuits. Their pain is just starting.
Sheesh. Shouldn't have bought back my MARA covered calls. Crypto taking it on the chin this morning
Today is going to be a good day, and here's why- over a year ago, I bought Leaps on several positions which have exceeded my expectations. I like these names long term and so I'm exercising the options and will start selling CC (on an up day) to maximize my returns. (Note - all these are my runners that are left after selling for 100% profit along the way.
CX - 10 @ $0.50 strike
HAL - 2 @ $5.00
KSS - 1 @ $17
WFC - 2 @ $20
CX - 10 @ $0.50 strike
HAL - 2 @ $5.00
KSS - 1 @ $17
WFC - 2 @ $20
If gap fills mean anything in this environment (big IF), it should fill its gap back to 7/20/21
Nice! Congrats! Leaps are a great thing sometimes!
Bob Knights Liver said:
Irish hit the nail on the head for me as well. Too many years working on Asia late afternoon time.
That was my dream job for many many years. I was fluent in Thai, khmer, and japanese for a bit a life ago. These days I'm just an attorney looking for my ripcord
Keep an eye on the VIX. Clears 27.40 and things could pop off fast.
Fears Permeate Asian Trading...Risk Off...10 Yrs Hit 1.763..Dead Cat Bounce
We said earlier this week that the boat had shifted too short for treasury positions before next week's Major Fed Meeting and to expect as much as a 15 basis point reversal... We have now seen that with 10 years hitting a high yield of 1.90 earlier this week and this morning a low yield of 1.763... Similarly with 5 years, from 1.69 Tuesday to this morning 1.54... Unfortunately with the continued ugly trading of equities, and the some of the high fliers like Netflix, DOWN 100 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHTS CLOSE OR 20%, the fear of "get me out" is more prevalent than bottom fishing... We can see another move lower in rates...with some of the smart money that bought 127 puts on treasury futures, taking profits this morning, or at least liquidating...
Interesting comment from Bespoke this morning.."First time in 20 years that the Nasdaq was up 1%+ intraday and finished down more than 1% on BACK TO BACK DAYS"... Similar to what we wrote after the close last night.
" Both the Nasdaq and S+P had massive reversals today with the Nasdaq dropping from a 14642 high at 11 am to close at 14140, down 500 points intraday... Add another 135 as we write this... The S+P was no better as it dropped 100 points from the high to close.. Add another 22 now... Ultimately we will call it an UGLY close... " and we do not think the worst is over... We also said last night
Outlook, not good between now and next Wednesday...According to Charlie McElligott of Nomura, said that the S+P had to hold 4507 to prevent the CTA model from flipping short equities... The S+P 100% long signal is now flipping 37% short...
Overnight S+P futures are down 24 points, which is 23 points above the low... We think it could close up today, but the charts are clearly ugly with both the Nasdaq and Russell in negative corrective territory...
Long duration corporates are showing some strain...but while spreads continue to leak wider, they remain solid... Yesterday 5 billion + came to market with wider concessions than we have seen recently, but they got done... That brings the week to date to about 35 billion... We are starting to see more sellers out there testing the water... Our crack Muni team told us they saw over 7000 bid wanteds yesterday... Our mortgage team has seen bid lists increase as well... So there are sellers out there, but buyers are still out there in force.. We think it is just a matter of time before we see correcting equities widen out the corporate bond market spreads... US Corporate bond Index is heading to its worse monthly close since March 2020, and its worse January performance in 6 years.
Rates.. The 10 year yield, which we pointed out above hit 1.90 this week, has traced and completed a "ISLAND REVERSAL TOP" , a rare technical pattern that occurs when an upside gap in an uptrend is almost immediately followed by a downside gap,,,Unless 10 year yields close above 1.80 today, we could easily reach 1.65-1.70 before next weeks Fed meeting... While we all know the Fed has pivoted Hawkish and will start to raise rates this quarter, it does not mean rates on 10 years will be a straight line up to 2%...
We said earlier this week that the boat had shifted too short for treasury positions before next week's Major Fed Meeting and to expect as much as a 15 basis point reversal... We have now seen that with 10 years hitting a high yield of 1.90 earlier this week and this morning a low yield of 1.763... Similarly with 5 years, from 1.69 Tuesday to this morning 1.54... Unfortunately with the continued ugly trading of equities, and the some of the high fliers like Netflix, DOWN 100 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHTS CLOSE OR 20%, the fear of "get me out" is more prevalent than bottom fishing... We can see another move lower in rates...with some of the smart money that bought 127 puts on treasury futures, taking profits this morning, or at least liquidating...
Interesting comment from Bespoke this morning.."First time in 20 years that the Nasdaq was up 1%+ intraday and finished down more than 1% on BACK TO BACK DAYS"... Similar to what we wrote after the close last night.
" Both the Nasdaq and S+P had massive reversals today with the Nasdaq dropping from a 14642 high at 11 am to close at 14140, down 500 points intraday... Add another 135 as we write this... The S+P was no better as it dropped 100 points from the high to close.. Add another 22 now... Ultimately we will call it an UGLY close... " and we do not think the worst is over... We also said last night
Outlook, not good between now and next Wednesday...According to Charlie McElligott of Nomura, said that the S+P had to hold 4507 to prevent the CTA model from flipping short equities... The S+P 100% long signal is now flipping 37% short...
Overnight S+P futures are down 24 points, which is 23 points above the low... We think it could close up today, but the charts are clearly ugly with both the Nasdaq and Russell in negative corrective territory...
Long duration corporates are showing some strain...but while spreads continue to leak wider, they remain solid... Yesterday 5 billion + came to market with wider concessions than we have seen recently, but they got done... That brings the week to date to about 35 billion... We are starting to see more sellers out there testing the water... Our crack Muni team told us they saw over 7000 bid wanteds yesterday... Our mortgage team has seen bid lists increase as well... So there are sellers out there, but buyers are still out there in force.. We think it is just a matter of time before we see correcting equities widen out the corporate bond market spreads... US Corporate bond Index is heading to its worse monthly close since March 2020, and its worse January performance in 6 years.
Rates.. The 10 year yield, which we pointed out above hit 1.90 this week, has traced and completed a "ISLAND REVERSAL TOP" , a rare technical pattern that occurs when an upside gap in an uptrend is almost immediately followed by a downside gap,,,Unless 10 year yields close above 1.80 today, we could easily reach 1.65-1.70 before next weeks Fed meeting... While we all know the Fed has pivoted Hawkish and will start to raise rates this quarter, it does not mean rates on 10 years will be a straight line up to 2%...
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