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Brewmaster
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9:44p, 1/20/22
AG
fwiw... and he has been one of the most permabull guys on fintwit:

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agdaddy04
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In reply to ProgN • 9:45p, 1/20/22
AG
How do you choose your entries on those stocks?
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:45p, 1/20/22
AG
Longs over SPX 4440 tomorrow, shorts below it.
  • upper targets 4460, then 4500
  • Lower targets 4400, then 4340

If 4400 gives up - oh shiet.

Futures are around the 4440 level right now.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:47p, 1/20/22
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Longs over SPX 4440 tomorrow, shorts below it.
  • upper targets 4460, then 4500
  • Lower targets 4400, then 4340

If 4400 gives up - oh shiet.

Futures are around the 4440 level right now.
That said, everyone and their mom is expecting a major puke tomorrow.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:49p, 1/20/22
AG
Capitulation will be a red dog reversal.


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$30,000 Millionaire
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9:52p, 1/20/22
AG
200 EMA on SPX is 4400 and 4395 on e-mini.
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wanderer
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 9:52p, 1/20/22
Ah crap. 30k calling for GOOGL to go to 850. The sky really is falling.
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ProgN
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In reply to agdaddy04 • 9:55p, 1/20/22
agdaddy04 said:
How do you choose your entries on those stocks?
Those stocks look like hot garbage in Texas during August technically but they're all within my comfort zone to accumulate. They're market leaders, fund faves, severely oversold and I'd regret not buying them here in 6 months. I and no one else can predict the absolute bottom so IMO entry into them at their current prices and owning them is more important to me than missing out on them.
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Carlo4
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In reply to Max Stonetrail • 9:58p, 1/20/22
AG
Max Stonetrail said:
Carlo4 said:
How low does Rivian go? Had Covid all week and ignored everything… and just looked at it down 20% this week.


The real question is are you looking for a trade or an investment? In my opinion, there are probably better trading opportunities out there. New companies with no real production or sales can have all kinds of big surprises happen...

For an investment, I think Rivian is probably a good company and their product is good from what I have read. Like Dan Scott said it's pre revenue. That is an extremely rich valuation for a company without sales. Keep in mind they have been in business since 2009. You can't just build an automotive company overnight. They have a $60B market cap right now. Can they get to $600B in 5 years? 10 years? That's a ten bagger. TSLA hit a billion. I would probably wait for them to report a couple more quarters before committing much money to it. If it gets cheap, maybe pick up a few shares. Since most stock purchases are commission free these days, it doesn't cost any more to buy 100 shares one at a time or all at once.


Strictly long term investment for me. Buy enough (100 shares or so) and forget it. Just seeing when to put in the rest.

Thanks for feedback!
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:00p, 1/20/22
AG
you do not want to see 4350 give up (434 on SPY). We have dipped below the weekly 8 EMA before, but we have not closed below it more than once since March 2020. We will certainly react at that level for at least a dead cat bounce. Likely we have a date with 3500 if we keep down here.

Bulls can make it all better by closing above SPY 458 tomorrow.



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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:01p, 1/20/22
AG
all that said, we're oversold. Might get more oversold first, but we're going to bounce.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 10:15p, 1/20/22
$30,000 Millionaire said:
200 EMA on SPX is 4400 and 4395 on e-mini.
I think most are watching 200 SMA, not that it really matters. Tomorrow will be fun with this setup and opex.
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agdaddy04
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In reply to ProgN • 10:21p, 1/20/22
AG
Thanks. There's times where it feels like I picked the absolute wrong time to start following this thread with stock picks(last February) after only casually observing with no investing prior to that. But the things you guys throw out there are catching on. Very appreciative of that.
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Touchless
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10:28p, 1/20/22
AG
AMZN at a pretty critical level here I feel like. I was hoping it would get to this level previously so I could buy some calls on it, but that was when the overall market wasn't pulling back.

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wanderer
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In reply to agdaddy04 • 10:31p, 1/20/22
agdaddy04 said:
There's times where it feels like I picked the absolute wrong time to start following this thread with stock picks(last February)
I can't help but think the same sometimes. Just gotta keep telling myself the knowledge gained will eventually pay off. Gotta play the long game
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to ProgN • 10:36p, 1/20/22
ProgN said:
I've started to read your posts in the voice of Benedict Cumberbatch

Oh ****, now I can't read them without hearing Sherlock! That post had me rolling!
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kyledr04
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In reply to wanderer • 10:39p, 1/20/22
AG
wanderer said:
agdaddy04 said:
There's times where it feels like I picked the absolute wrong time to start following this thread with stock picks(last February)
I can't help but think the same sometimes. Just gotta keep telling myself the knowledge gained will eventually pay off. Gotta play the long game


Same. Followed for a while and started a trading account Feb of last year. Worst time to buy a bunch of risky growth stocks. Bag holding big time. Account looks awful. Only good has been learning what not to do. Cash would have lost less with inflation for sure.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to agdaddy04 • 11:00p, 1/20/22
AG
agdaddy04 said:
Thanks. There's times where it feels like I picked the absolute wrong time to start following this thread with stock picks(last February) after only casually observing with no investing prior to that. But the things you guys throw out there are catching on. Very appreciative of that.
A bull market like the one we went through makes every decision a winner. One of the things I realized the past few months is how few stocks keep the major indexes a float. I'm pretty heavily diversified in my 401k with mutual funds. They've been just as mutilated as my stock picks. i wish I'd gone much heavier cash wise a few months ago and stuck with that position.
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 11:07p, 1/20/22
It is your 401k though and all about your time frame. While this sucks, and may get worse this year, next few years, it doesn't really matter unless you need the money soon. You know the long term trajectory on that.
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Philip J Fry
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11:10p, 1/20/22
AG
Yeah, I guess what I'm trying to say is that it goes deeper than just stock picks. Look at CPOAX. We are about to hit levels we haven't seen since 2019.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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11:38p, 1/20/22
Here's a good reference link.

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
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lobwedgephil
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 11:52p, 1/20/22
Yeah, a lot of the market has been in a very bear market for a while, covered up by the indexes being high. There has been extreme destruction under the surface.
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TMOOSE
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 12:29a, 1/21/22
We may see 4369 if we break it.
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TMOOSE
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12:31a, 1/21/22
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59 South
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4:38a, 1/21/22
AG
Happy Friday folks, rise and shine! Looking like a kinda flat open. OPEX maybe? The last thing you want to see if you're bullish is a green open.

I had a little time this morning to try to get an objective read on things at a high level so thought I'd share. SPY and AAPL charts below since that is the best indicator of the overall 'market'. IWM is broken. QQQ is right at a critical level around 360. If SPY (& AAPL) fall apart, IWM/QQQ will go lower but will likely outperform and bounce back the fastest and hardest.

For SPY/AAPL, seems to be around 3 plausible scenarios about to play out over the coming days/weeks:

1 - one final flush here today to SPY 440-442, AAPL 160-162 and we move on (best case for bulls that I'd say is least likely if I'm guessing

2 - a bit more downside SPY 423-434 ish, AAPL 150-155 ish

3 - a good correction and longer term mean reversion w/ some good back tests. SPY 400, AAPL 145 or under. Bigger picture over the next couple of years, this would probably be the best thing to happen. 15-20% correction that is overdue. Lots and lots of technical confluence around here.

If you zoom out, 3 (or at least 2) makes the most sense and keeps the long term bull in tact. Don't see it happening, but lose all those levels, and real panic would cause a real bear market type scenario with with SPY down in the low to mid 300s and AAPL closing that huge gap back <100. I just don't see it happening because the FED would almost certainly come to the rescue and kick it back to QE pronto. SPY 400 would likely do enough for them to switch from hawkish to dovish. I realize a lot of economic fundamentalists would disagree, but that is the current reality and likely outcome. Keep in mind this is a key midterm election year as well. So 15-20% correction by summer, FED backs off, back up we go just in time for 'voting' season?!?!?

Here's SPY and AAPL (daily over the past year or so, log scale, major levels and gap days noted, 8EMA/21EMA/50SMA/200SMA noted, some long term trend lines as well. Busier charts than I like but key info. One thing I started doing was marking upcoming OPEX dates and bolding quarterly ones. This really helps if you are hedging or trading options. Always pay attention to where those dates cross key support/resistance levels.

SPY


AAPL
If this post is on the B&I forum, lighten up it's just money!

Disclaimer: I'm not that smart.
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ProgN
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4:53a, 1/21/22
https://apple.news/ANIeSYPnhR8WQ_Tt5_TamIw

Meatloaf died age 74
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to ProgN • 5:11a, 1/21/22
Damn…
In death a member of project mayhem has a name. His name is Robert Paulson. His name is Robert Paulson
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59 South
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5:18a, 1/21/22
AG
RIP Mr. Loaf

Also, you guys get up too early!
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ProgN
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In reply to 59 South • 5:19a, 1/21/22
I do my store runs on Fridays.
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Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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In reply to TMOOSE • 5:20a, 1/21/22
That Omen is a new one to me so I went to Investopedia to learn more. Said it had a 25% success rate.
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59 South
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In reply to ProgN • 5:26a, 1/21/22
AG
ProgN said:
I do my store runs on Fridays.
It's about time you do something productive instead of just posting on f16 bro!
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to 59 South • 5:26a, 1/21/22
My prostate sets an early alarm for me every morning.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to 59 South • 5:27a, 1/21/22
I'm at my desk at 3:30-4 most mornings. The joys of working with 95% Asian clientele.

Also why I drink two pots of coffee and an energy drink every day. My cardiologist said I'm going to give him a heart attack.
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ProgN
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In reply to 59 South • 5:27a, 1/21/22
59 South
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In reply to Bob Knights Paper Hands • 5:29a, 1/21/22
AG
Bob Knights Liver said:
My prostate sets an early alarm for me every morning.
When does that start Bob? I'm 40 and recently started waking up with the feeling more often, but for now I can still keep it pinched enough to stay in bed and go back to sleep until 6:30-7:00.
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