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Irish 2.0
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In reply to CheladaAg • 2:11p, 1/14/22
boyz05 said:
sts7049 said:
NFLX raises prices and the stock jumps 20 points on the news
Short opportunity?
Absolutely not
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
-Moderator
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Engine10
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In reply to Engine10 • 2:15p, 1/14/22
AG
Engine10 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I don't believe in Roku's business model anymore. The smart TVs hosting their own "app stores" dilutes their share.

I'm down for a fundamentals deep dive on Roku. Will try and flip through their data and see what they might be hiding.
Getting into this now. Interesting findings so far, agree completely now that the business model is in a weird spot. I get the feeling they are about to shake it up big time. Here's some risks I see - the biz is separated into Player and Platform segments. All of this just my opinion.

TLDR - Roku is healthy and building a war chest, but how they deploy it will determine their next phase as their margins get squeezed by rising costs. Should be for a significant content library. Wouldn't be surprised to see Player segment ditched altogether.

I think the word is out that Roku is trying to become a mini NFLX, and is being re-priced accordingly. Why buy Roku at an 80 P/E, with no content magnet for eyeballs/loyalty, when you can buy NFLX at a 40 P/E?


Player
  • Commoditization of connectivity to content apps diminish need for Roku Player - Smart TV native apps, cheap Aggregators (e.g. Google Chromecast)
  • Player accounts for 5% or less of quarterly profits. Peripheral sales (roku streambar) likely to be ineffective at generating incremental margin, no brand history and intense competition in the audio space. This places the Platform revenues front and center as the only thing to give a **** about. So what's going on there?

    • Platform
  • Revenues generate from ad sales on home screen/screen saver, branded channel buttons on remotes, content licensing deals, and Premium content subscriptions (e.g. Showtime).
  • Average Revenue per User, Key Metric, continues to rise, however margin unknown. Could simply be showing ads with greater frequency which could turn users away.
  • Roku Channel features original/proprietary content and licensed content coupled with ads
  • Roku Channel can be delivered via airplay, chromecast, etc. where a native app does not exist.
  • Potential margin squeeze shaping up for the Platform segment, factors: rising advertising inventory costs, higher costs to acquire/closing arb of Premium Subscriptions, and rising cloud services costs.
  • Lack of original/proprietary content to attract users to the Roku channel. Most licensed content available elsewhere.
    • $170MM of content assets as of 3Q '21
    • Quibi buyout, while not costly, still a whiff. No one cares about that stuff.
    • This Old House content good/reliable, but a fairly sleepy audience that may not be as likely to frequently engage with streaming content
    • Planned International expansion not indicative of viable international content as none exists today, same issue with streaming player commoditization + Smart TV apps.

    Future
    • Did an equity offering to raise $1B in March '21, and is now sitting on ~$2B of cash and equivalents. Working capital is jumping through the roof, up to 150 MM.
    • Should be used to acquire meaningful content library that keeps users engaged with either Roku Device or Roku Channel.
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    98PercenterAg
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    2:21p, 1/14/22
    AG
    Trying to time a ROKU entry is like catching smoke in a strainer
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    McInnis 03
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    2:24p, 1/14/22
    AG
    Netflix saved the markets. DAYUM.
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    Irish 2.0
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    2:32p, 1/14/22
    MOC Buy 100MM
    Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
    -Moderator
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    ProgN
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    In reply to CheladaAg • 2:33p, 1/14/22
    boyz05 said:
    sts7049 said:
    NFLX raises prices and the stock jumps 20 points on the news
    Short opportunity?
    Only if you hate money.

    With inflation hurting everyone, they'll spend more time at home and gladly pay another $1.50/mo. Shorting NFLX now has the potential to destroy your account.
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    TxAgLaw03RW
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    2:35p, 1/14/22
    AG
    Gov. Ivey mentioned WWR by name in her recent State of the State address:

    https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-business-health-alabama-2c8acb1afd5146855e56596336ae3fed
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    BrokeAssAggie
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    In reply to TxAgLaw03RW • 2:37p, 1/14/22
    Nice. Hopefully she has quite a bit in her portfolio too.
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    TxAgLaw03RW
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    In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 2:40p, 1/14/22
    AG
    We'll know we're in good shape when Pelosi gets on board and buys a few million shares.
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    BrokeAssAggie
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    2:50p, 1/14/22
    Bulls showing up
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    Irish 2.0
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    In reply to Irish 2.0 • 2:51p, 1/14/22
    Irish 2.0 said:
    MOC Buy 100MM
    Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
    -Moderator
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    Spoony Love
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    In reply to Irish 2.0 • 2:53p, 1/14/22
    AG
    Holy buying Batman.
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    agdaddy04
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    2:55p, 1/14/22
    AG
    Pretty interesting turn of events in the last few minutes.


    Has anyone else been surprised about how far POWW has been beaten down? Due to overall market more so than the company themselves?
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    McInnis 03
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    In reply to agdaddy04 • 2:57p, 1/14/22
    AG
    agdaddy04 said:
    Pretty interesting turn of events in the last few minutes.


    Has anyone else been surprised about how far POWW has been beaten down? Due to overall market more so than the company themselves?
    Gamma flipped against them when we crossed and held 4650 to close. Have to buy at close
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    McInnis 03
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    In reply to McInnis 03 • 2:58p, 1/14/22
    AG
    McInnis 03 said:
    I'm short the MNQ for my last trade today. Final runner I'm gonna play, I'll stop out at yesterdays low which may get tagged here.

    AND that's all she wrote. + day for me so I'm closing windows.
    Lied. When I noticed MNQ breaking the ORH AGAIN I had to try again and squeezed about 100 total more points out of the darn thing.

    Netted 430+ total points on MNQ today. UNBELIEVABLE for Mc1, Mc2, Mc3, and any other of me that are out there.
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    ProgN
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    3:04p, 1/14/22
    Don't be surprised if tech has a strong week next week, even though it OPEX.
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    Ragoo
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    In reply to ProgN • 3:09p, 1/14/22
    AG
    ProgN said:
    Don't be surprised if tech has a strong week next week, even though it OPEX.
    flipped QQQ a couple of time today and kept $380 for next Friday locked and loaded. Let's rip!
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    Brewmaster
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    In reply to ProgN • 3:21p, 1/14/22
    AG
    ProgN said:
    Don't be surprised if tech has a strong week next week, even though it OPEX.
    NFLX earnings the 20th I believe. run up to that and then dump wouldn't surprise me.
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    BrokeAssAggie
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    3:21p, 1/14/22
    SPY at $465.35 just above the 50 day.
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    Brewmaster
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    3:21p, 1/14/22
    AG
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    Spoony Love
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    In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 3:34p, 1/14/22
    AG
    Coming for that gap up on Tuesday to $470.
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    BrokeAssAggie
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    In reply to Spoony Love • 3:36p, 1/14/22
    Spoony Love said:
    Coming for that gap up on Tuesday to $470.


    Sure hope so. I'm loaded up on 1/22. $470s
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    FJ43
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    3:55p, 1/14/22
    With you 470c degenerates for next Friday. Have focused playing those through the week.
    Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
    Proverbs 13:11

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    Irish 2.0
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    3:59p, 1/14/22
    What are you crackheads gonna do with no trading on Monday?!
    Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
    -Moderator
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    BrokeAssAggie
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    In reply to Irish 2.0 • 4:00p, 1/14/22
    Irish 2.0 said:
    What are you crackheads gonna do with no trading on Monday?!


    I guess work at my real job
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    BrokeAssAggie
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    In reply to FJ43 • 4:03p, 1/14/22
    FJ43 said:
    With you 470c degenerates for next Friday. Have focused playing those through the week.


    If FJ is in I must've done something right
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    azul_rain
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    In reply to Irish 2.0 • 4:05p, 1/14/22
    I'm kinda pissed off I work on Monday since the markets closed
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    59 South
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    In reply to Agsquatch • 4:08p, 1/14/22
    AG
    Senor Butthead said:
    59 South said:
    Why does DocuSign have such a high valuation?


    Electronic signature market cornered. I wouldn't make it more complicated than that.
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    FJ43
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    In reply to Irish 2.0 • 4:08p, 1/14/22
    Irish 2.0 said:
    What are you crackheads gonna do with no trading on Monday?!

    Meh trade crypto
    Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
    Proverbs 13:11

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    Spoony Love
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    In reply to Irish 2.0 • 4:21p, 1/14/22
    AG
    Irish 2.0 said:
    What are you crackheads gonna do with no trading on Monday?!
    Yo, I got a farm to run on the side. Day off from work means a full day of other work. Gotta get some piggies ready to go to processing.
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    BrokeAssAggie
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    4:24p, 1/14/22
    Should probably clean my work bench
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    FJ43
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    In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 4:44p, 1/14/22
    BrokeAssAggie said:
    Should probably clean my work bench


    Pretend it's your yard. Last I saw your lawn skills were top shelf.
    Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
    Proverbs 13:11

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    azul_rain
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    In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 4:47p, 1/14/22
    Oh look at me I'm rich
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    BrokeAssAggie
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    In reply to azul_rain • 4:51p, 1/14/22
    Haha not really. Those tools have all been accumulated over a 12 year period.
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    Troy91
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    5:11p, 1/14/22
    AG
    It is called getting old. Trying to get my garage to full "Grand Torino" level.

    When you collect 2 or 3 tools a year, it all adds up.
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