Question here…..why did the 1 yr treasury note trade up to 1.76% if the Feds haven't raised the rates yet? I know they trade independently, but aren't they strongly correlated? Do people think the market is going down that hard?
Stock Markets
24,691,485 Views |
233387 Replies |
Last: 3 hrs ago by Ranger222
The market doesn't typically trade what is happening today. It's trading what it believes will happen in the future. Think it is 90% sentiment for rates rising in March now.
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
-Moderator
-Moderator
BrokeAssAggie said:
If futures go green tonight y'all think we have a Green Day tomorrow?
On /ES: over 4705 to be bullish, target 4740, then 4780. Under 4660 bearish, target 4620, then 4560. No trades between 4660 and 4700
im more curious as to why the market didnt price it in earlier, strong market efficiency
Gotcha. So if we get ~1% bounce overnight we could see a little run up at the open tomorrow.
It's possible but I would expect that to happen in the cash session
Fwiw, the WWR MACD/RSI is showing signs of life. EMAs still look like a wet blanket though. Would be nice to finally see some movement soon.
Experts cast doubts over reported 'deltacron' variant, citing lab contamination
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/deltacron-variant-prompts-doubts-among-experts-as-possible-lab-error.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Had to get the fear porn out there before verifying the claim.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/10/deltacron-variant-prompts-doubts-among-experts-as-possible-lab-error.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Had to get the fear porn out there before verifying the claim.
MODERNA CEO SAYS WORKING ON AN OMICRON SPECIFIC VACCINE THAT SHOULD BE IN CLINICS SOON - CNBC$MRNA
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) January 10, 2022
I caught some parts of that interview this morning. They're shootings for a booster every 5 months.
Yeah, that's a definite no from me dawg.
Yeah, that's a definite no from me dawg.
It's insanity at this point…but people will be lining up and so thankful they are now "protected"
Aaand should've bought puts instead of calls on Friday
Looks like we may be losing the 50D MA today. Time will tell if it recaptures but futures not looking good today.
Find some sinful stocks. They will likely do well….
Find some sinful stocks. They will likely do well….
BrokeAssAggie said:
It's insanity at this point…but people will be lining up and so thankful they are now "protected"
And they'll be confused when they get infected....again
This gap down is bringing us to some pretty powerful levels here. NQ jsut hit sub 15,400 and buyers showed up........ES is failing at an important level but then getting bought back up.......could be a short term flush.......worth watching here.
Monday Macros
The question we have is whether the Fed will accelerate tapering even further than what they announced last month when they meet on January 25/26... Inflation continues to boil with this weeks CPI expected to be 7%, YOY and PPI expected to be 9.8% YOY...Goldman Sachs came out last night increasing their expectations of 2022 rate increases from 3 to 4, expecting one increase per end of each quarterly Fed meeting... They, along with others, have brought forward their balance sheet reductions to start to July from later in the year... With the likes of many blasting the Fed from both sides of the political spectrum that they are behind the curve, we think the Fed will be pressured to move everything up... El-Erian and Reider of Blackrock lambasted the Fed Friday... And again from both sides of the political spectrum, from Summers to Taylor ,the weekend, the Fed will respond...the question is how and when... We are still not sold on the idea of 4 rate increases for 2022, even though the likes of BB Intelligence talked about 6 hikes in 2022... We refer to Waller who said in December that the Fed could use balance sheet reductions in 2022 to defer some rate increases...
Balance sheet versus rate increases... A client asked us over the weekend what would be the ratio of rate increase versus balance sheet reduction... We think the Fed will start small , say 25 billion a month and rapidly increase it to 100 billion a month... While we have not seen numbers out there, if there are please let us know, but we think that roughly 500 billion to 1 trillion of balance sheet reduction is worth about 25-50 basis of rate increases...
The Fed and employment... The employment report on Friday showed a rapidly increasing full employment with increasing wage inflation... With a 3.9% number , with high quit ratios, we think we are at full employment, which at the end of the day is more important to the Fed than inflation, which for what it is worth, we do not agree ... But that is where they are ... Hourly earnings are running 4.7% YOY while over the last 6 months the numbers are even higher at 6%. Jefferies sees wage inflation running between 5.7-6.4% with an expected year end unemployment rate of 3%... PWC put out a report in late 2021, which struck us as scary, saying that " 65% OF ALL WORKERS ARE LOOKING FOR BETTER JOBS". Can you imagine that if you are a big employer and 2/3 of your employees are out there looking? Meanwhile the number of payroll jobs added in 2021 were 6.4 million larger than 2020, greater than any year ever... Of course the US population is higher and some of that is expected... Nonetheless, WE ARE AT FULL EMPLOYMENT...
Fed speakers... We see 7 speakers this week with 6 on topic of monetary policy and economic outlook.. All will be hawkish to some extent... But the big Fed moves could come when Powell is in front of the Senate tomorrow for his confirmation hearing... We expect some tough questions from the Senate which could move the bond market... Brainard is in front of the Senate on Thursday...but Powell should be the focal point... Biden still has not released his Fed nominees, even though the rumors are out there.
Rates and the curve... 10 years overnight did not trade in Japan for the "coming of age" holiday, but traded to 1.80 in London time... While at 1.77 currently we think higher rates and steeper curves are coming... Given the 10 year has taken out the 1.77 high of last year, we see the next support level at 1.92, which is a step towards our 2% objective... 5 years cleared our 1.495 support level, and is currently at 1.515... We see support at 1.625, but the bigger support is closer to 1.75... Our 2 year objective is 1.31, but there are support numbers closer to 1%... We think the fear of balance sheet reduction, and the elimination of tapering at the end of February, will keep pressure on the long end of the curve...as the world's largest buyer of long duration treasuries stops buying next month and becomes a seller in 6 months.
Equities... Will the stronger economy and the Fed increases be good for equities?.. No... But it won't be a disaster... Equities were down marginally when we started to write this morning with the S+P down 3 points, now that is 25 points, with Nasdaq getting ugly... As of Friday the Nasdaq was down about 7.8% from its 2021 high... The Nasdaq 100 has tested its December 20 lows three times... The fourth time, which looks to be today, probably will accelerate another 7% lower, or about 15% from its high... Is that ugly?... No but we thought a correction would happen in the first quarter of 2022, but were unsure of what month... Now with the Fed acceleration and Uber Hawkish pivot, it seems to be sooner rather than later... FOMO is dead for now, but we do expect there to be a buying area... Just not today.
Corporate bonds are starting to widen... Not a great sign.. IG returned -1.04% in 2021, Treasuries - 2.32%, Munis up 1.52%, while Junk returned 5.28%... Last week corporate issuance exceeded the expectations of 35-40 and came with closer to 70 billion... We see this week with 35 billion expectation... The corporate bond market will issue around 1.4 trillion this year, a respectable year but with some widening and some gaps...
Reality of bubbles... M2 increased 41% over the last two years... That is over... The Fed is tightening and the further Fiscal stimulus is stalling... Bubbles are reversing... Crypto is off over 40% from its November high... Long duration tech stocks are about to enter corrective territory... 38% of Nasdaq stocks have fallen over 50% or more... Be careful to not to be too quick to add to risk... Have a good week...
The question we have is whether the Fed will accelerate tapering even further than what they announced last month when they meet on January 25/26... Inflation continues to boil with this weeks CPI expected to be 7%, YOY and PPI expected to be 9.8% YOY...Goldman Sachs came out last night increasing their expectations of 2022 rate increases from 3 to 4, expecting one increase per end of each quarterly Fed meeting... They, along with others, have brought forward their balance sheet reductions to start to July from later in the year... With the likes of many blasting the Fed from both sides of the political spectrum that they are behind the curve, we think the Fed will be pressured to move everything up... El-Erian and Reider of Blackrock lambasted the Fed Friday... And again from both sides of the political spectrum, from Summers to Taylor ,the weekend, the Fed will respond...the question is how and when... We are still not sold on the idea of 4 rate increases for 2022, even though the likes of BB Intelligence talked about 6 hikes in 2022... We refer to Waller who said in December that the Fed could use balance sheet reductions in 2022 to defer some rate increases...
Balance sheet versus rate increases... A client asked us over the weekend what would be the ratio of rate increase versus balance sheet reduction... We think the Fed will start small , say 25 billion a month and rapidly increase it to 100 billion a month... While we have not seen numbers out there, if there are please let us know, but we think that roughly 500 billion to 1 trillion of balance sheet reduction is worth about 25-50 basis of rate increases...
The Fed and employment... The employment report on Friday showed a rapidly increasing full employment with increasing wage inflation... With a 3.9% number , with high quit ratios, we think we are at full employment, which at the end of the day is more important to the Fed than inflation, which for what it is worth, we do not agree ... But that is where they are ... Hourly earnings are running 4.7% YOY while over the last 6 months the numbers are even higher at 6%. Jefferies sees wage inflation running between 5.7-6.4% with an expected year end unemployment rate of 3%... PWC put out a report in late 2021, which struck us as scary, saying that " 65% OF ALL WORKERS ARE LOOKING FOR BETTER JOBS". Can you imagine that if you are a big employer and 2/3 of your employees are out there looking? Meanwhile the number of payroll jobs added in 2021 were 6.4 million larger than 2020, greater than any year ever... Of course the US population is higher and some of that is expected... Nonetheless, WE ARE AT FULL EMPLOYMENT...
Fed speakers... We see 7 speakers this week with 6 on topic of monetary policy and economic outlook.. All will be hawkish to some extent... But the big Fed moves could come when Powell is in front of the Senate tomorrow for his confirmation hearing... We expect some tough questions from the Senate which could move the bond market... Brainard is in front of the Senate on Thursday...but Powell should be the focal point... Biden still has not released his Fed nominees, even though the rumors are out there.
Rates and the curve... 10 years overnight did not trade in Japan for the "coming of age" holiday, but traded to 1.80 in London time... While at 1.77 currently we think higher rates and steeper curves are coming... Given the 10 year has taken out the 1.77 high of last year, we see the next support level at 1.92, which is a step towards our 2% objective... 5 years cleared our 1.495 support level, and is currently at 1.515... We see support at 1.625, but the bigger support is closer to 1.75... Our 2 year objective is 1.31, but there are support numbers closer to 1%... We think the fear of balance sheet reduction, and the elimination of tapering at the end of February, will keep pressure on the long end of the curve...as the world's largest buyer of long duration treasuries stops buying next month and becomes a seller in 6 months.
Equities... Will the stronger economy and the Fed increases be good for equities?.. No... But it won't be a disaster... Equities were down marginally when we started to write this morning with the S+P down 3 points, now that is 25 points, with Nasdaq getting ugly... As of Friday the Nasdaq was down about 7.8% from its 2021 high... The Nasdaq 100 has tested its December 20 lows three times... The fourth time, which looks to be today, probably will accelerate another 7% lower, or about 15% from its high... Is that ugly?... No but we thought a correction would happen in the first quarter of 2022, but were unsure of what month... Now with the Fed acceleration and Uber Hawkish pivot, it seems to be sooner rather than later... FOMO is dead for now, but we do expect there to be a buying area... Just not today.
Corporate bonds are starting to widen... Not a great sign.. IG returned -1.04% in 2021, Treasuries - 2.32%, Munis up 1.52%, while Junk returned 5.28%... Last week corporate issuance exceeded the expectations of 35-40 and came with closer to 70 billion... We see this week with 35 billion expectation... The corporate bond market will issue around 1.4 trillion this year, a respectable year but with some widening and some gaps...
Reality of bubbles... M2 increased 41% over the last two years... That is over... The Fed is tightening and the further Fiscal stimulus is stalling... Bubbles are reversing... Crypto is off over 40% from its November high... Long duration tech stocks are about to enter corrective territory... 38% of Nasdaq stocks have fallen over 50% or more... Be careful to not to be too quick to add to risk... Have a good week...
The 373 area on the QQQ is what I'm watching. If it doesn't defend it, we've got a gap fill on deck back to about 361 which would also represent an ~11.5% drop from ATH a correction
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
-Moderator
-Moderator
And I'm sad that the ticker $SAGET is no longer tradeable. That was a good one to get some highs and lows off of.
There is no way we are at full employment.
We've had as much volume down here on ES at 4640 +/- in the last 30 min as we did at any other level during the night. It filled in very quickly. If this snaps back on a bounce shorts will get trapped and FAST.
Tweet posted for ease of posting my vol profile pic
Tweet posted for ease of posting my vol profile pic
Just thinking out loud here, but we have a lot of volume traded here at ES 4633-4640 in the last 20 min. A snapback could trap some shorts hard. pic.twitter.com/Vv0IEhEBYB
— Charles F (@charlesf11) January 10, 2022
What Is Full Employment?
Full employment is an economic situation in which all available labor resources are being used in the most efficient way possible. Full employment embodies the highest amount of skilled and unskilled labor that can be employed within an economy at any given time.
True full employment is an idealand probably unachievablesituation in which anyone who is willing and able to work can find a job, and unemployment is zero. It is a theoretical goal for economic policymakers to aim for rather than an actually observed state of the economy. In practical terms, economists can define various levels of full employment that are associated with low but non-zero rates of unemployment.
Full employment is an economic situation in which all available labor resources are being used in the most efficient way possible. Full employment embodies the highest amount of skilled and unskilled labor that can be employed within an economy at any given time.
True full employment is an idealand probably unachievablesituation in which anyone who is willing and able to work can find a job, and unemployment is zero. It is a theoretical goal for economic policymakers to aim for rather than an actually observed state of the economy. In practical terms, economists can define various levels of full employment that are associated with low but non-zero rates of unemployment.
I think R/G is a real possibility here.
$FUBO fuboTV Announces Preliminary Fourth Quarter 2021 Results Including Revenue and Subscriber Growth, Expects to Exceed Prior Guidancehttps://t.co/pXJCbczZeB
— Stock Titan (@stock_titan) January 10, 2022
Quote:
- Fourth quarter 2021 total revenue is expected to be between $215-$220 million, an increase of 105%-109% year-over-year. Prior guidance was $205-210 million for the quarter.
- Full year 2021 total revenue is expected to be between $622-627 million, an increase of 138-140% year-over-year1. Prior guidance was $612-$617 million.
- Fourth quarter 2021 advertising revenue is expected to be over $25 million, an increase in excess of 90% year-over-year, and crossing an annual run rate of $100 million.
- Paid subscribers at year-end are expected to exceed 1,100,000, an increase of more than 100% year-over-year. Prior guidance was 1,060,000-1,070,000 subscribers at year-end.
- Subscriber Acquisition Cost (SAC) is expected to be at the low end of the company's target range of 1.0-1.5x monthly Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for the quarter.
- Subscriber churn is expected to improve in the quarter by more than 200 basis points year-over-year. This marks the 13th consecutive quarter of churn improvements.
- fuboTV expects to end the quarter with more than $375 million of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash.
*FuboTV Sees 4Q Rev $215M-$220M
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) January 10, 2022
*FuboTV Sees FY21 Rev $622M-$627M
*FuboTV Sees Paid Subscribers at Yr-end of More Than 1.1M
*FuboTV Expects to End 4Q With More Than $375M of Cash, Cash Equivalents and Restricted Cash $FUBO
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
-Moderator
-Moderator
Juicy gap play.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think R/G is a real possibility here.
$TNX (10yr treasury note) daily ⬆️ pic.twitter.com/0dvp2kI4FH
— HiddenPivots (@HiddenPivots) January 10, 2022
$TNX 10 yr hitting almost 2 year high, back to 2019 levels pic.twitter.com/vXQ4dvzQxD
— PSK2329 - JHC (@psk2329) January 10, 2022
This would indicate QQQ could have more to go though..........and if the Q's can't bounce, ES/SPY will also have trouble.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
By the time they have a booster for omicold everyone will have gotten it already.BrokeAssAggie said:MODERNA CEO SAYS WORKING ON AN OMICRON SPECIFIC VACCINE THAT SHOULD BE IN CLINICS SOON - CNBC$MRNA
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) January 10, 2022
Looks to be an interesting start to the week fellas. I'll be eyeing $466 SPY calls for 1/12. But before I make a move, I want to see where VIX and Q are headed.
McInnis 03 said:Juicy gap play.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think R/G is a real possibility here.
Or we touch the SPX 100-day before we bounce?
4650 Mancini says is last ditch support. Below there price will "melt down"Red Rover said:McInnis 03 said:Juicy gap play.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I think R/G is a real possibility here.
Or we touch the SPX 100-day before we bounce?
AMZN at critical support around 3185ish.
Feels like Powell may be forced to change his tone...
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
-Moderator
-Moderator
QQQ sitting on 150EMA now
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
-Moderator
-Moderator
gun shy about playing for any "bounces". yuck.
Obligatory:Irish 2.0 said:
QQQ sitting on 150EMA now
Featured Stories
See All
SEC Round-Up: Dawgs facing possible playoff elimination this week
by Olin Buchanan
33:59
2h ago
514
Pick 'Em & Rip 'Em sponsored by PrizePicks: Week 12
by Matthew Dawson
14:58
2h ago
540
Assessing Earley's first signing class at the helm of Texas A&M baseball
by Ryan Brauninger
Tom Kazansky 2012
Number of football tickets A&M provided to t.u.
in Billy Liucci's TexAgs Premium
68