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CheladaAg
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In reply to Engine10 • 9:44a, 12/29/21
AG
Engine10 said:
cmk10 said:
AG 2000' said:
cmk10 said:
Are we assuming WWR drops below $2.00?
From looking at the charter over two years, it could go to a buck.



That's not exciting at all…

I wouldn't be concerned with the price action here or at any point until operations begin in 2023. It's a zero revenue company right now with no press(that's on management), tax loss season, no confirmation of plant construction beginning, and likely need to raise more capital for both working cap & completing the plant.

The bigger question I'm curious about is if Tesla wants synthetic graphite, who wants the natural stuff that they are producing? And why/what's the difference?

Still holding FWIW.

Seems you and I are on the same wave length regards to WWR, but as I bolded in what you quote, I have no idea if synthetic graphite is what will end up being what the battery market will demand. I haven't read or seen if OA has commented specifically if there would be concerns on natural graphite demand but this could easily kill it's prospects.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to CheladaAg • 9:46a, 12/29/21
boyz05 said:
Engine10 said:
cmk10 said:
AG 2000' said:
cmk10 said:
Are we assuming WWR drops below $2.00?
From looking at the charter over two years, it could go to a buck.



That's not exciting at all…

I wouldn't be concerned with the price action here or at any point until operations begin in 2023. It's a zero revenue company right now with no press(that's on management), tax loss season, no confirmation of plant construction beginning, and likely need to raise more capital for both working cap & completing the plant.

The bigger question I'm curious about is if Tesla wants synthetic graphite, who wants the natural stuff that they are producing? And why/what's the difference?

Still holding FWIW.

Seems you and I are on the same wave length regards to WWR, but as I bolded in what you quote, I have no idea if synthetic graphite is what will end up being what the battery market will demand. I haven't read or seen if OA has commented specifically if there would be concerns on natural graphite demand but this could easily kill it's prospects.
Graphite comes in two forms: natural graphite, which is mined, and synthetic graphite, which is produced from petroleum coke or coal tar.

These two types of graphite, natural and synthetic, compete in the battery anode materials market; the split of demand was around 50:50 in 2018.

Synthetic graphite is the higher-cost option for anode material, but its higher purity makes it preferable for use in premium batteries. Most battery anode producers use a blend of synthetic and natural materials, balancing costs and performance. But increasingly, the lower electrical resistances and greater consistency offered by synthetic have resulted in advanced technologies coming to use more synthetic graphite.

By 2030, Wood Mackenzie expects 70 percent of battery demand to be for synthetic graphite.

Many natural graphite producers are looking to move downstream to produce higher-purity products like coated spherical graphite, which could rival synthetic's energy densities and can compete on performance in the battery anode materials sector.

The trend of natural graphite miners' integrating value-adding processes into their business model may reduce the reliance on synthetic in the battery sector.

I'm not a WWR expert, but OA has mentioned the technology they're using is advanced so maybe they're natural graphite will rival the synthetic version.
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tlepoC
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9:49a, 12/29/21
AG

Quote:
Purified natural flake graphite exhibits a much higher crystalline structure than synthetic and is therefore more electrically and thermally conductive. Unlike synthetic, its ability to be exfoliated and then pressed into sheets makes it the preferred structure for heat sinks, fuel cells and gaskets. Currently, researchers are investigating its use in Li-ion battery anodes due to these more favorable properties, and for the large difference in price. Synthetic graphite for these batteries currently sells for around $20,000 per tonne, whereas spherical graphite made from natural flake, with its superior properties, sells for around $6,000 to 10,000, a huge cost savings and a means of reducing the overall cost of automotive battery systems.
Canada Carbon - Synthetic Graphite
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agdaddy04
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 9:50a, 12/29/21
AG
But isn't WWR's claim to fame the fact that they've refined the process to make the purest natural form?
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 9:50a, 12/29/21
AG
Triple_Bagger said:
boyz05 said:
Engine10 said:
cmk10 said:
AG 2000' said:
cmk10 said:
Are we assuming WWR drops below $2.00?
From looking at the charter over two years, it could go to a buck.



That's not exciting at all…

I wouldn't be concerned with the price action here or at any point until operations begin in 2023. It's a zero revenue company right now with no press(that's on management), tax loss season, no confirmation of plant construction beginning, and likely need to raise more capital for both working cap & completing the plant.

The bigger question I'm curious about is if Tesla wants synthetic graphite, who wants the natural stuff that they are producing? And why/what's the difference?

Still holding FWIW.

Seems you and I are on the same wave length regards to WWR, but as I bolded in what you quote, I have no idea if synthetic graphite is what will end up being what the battery market will demand. I haven't read or seen if OA has commented specifically if there would be concerns on natural graphite demand but this could easily kill it's prospects.
Graphite comes in two forms: natural graphite, which is mined, and synthetic graphite, which is produced from petroleum coke or coal tar. ... Synthetic graphite is the higher-cost option for anode material, but its higher purity makes it preferable for use in premium batteries.
This is one of the things I have struggled with on WWR. I assume (you know what they say) that WWR has done the market analysis on this and knows there's high demand for natural graphite.

But it's a non-starter for Tesla, which gives me pause.
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Socialism Sucks
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10:02a, 12/29/21
AG
Expect synthetic graphite to be labeled as "dirty" since it is derived from fossil fuels. Lithium Ion batteries can also be made with a blend of synthetic and natural. I suppose advances in purifying natural graphite have made it a more "green" option, while still having a cost lower than the synthetic stuff.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/30/dirty-vs-green-graphite-nickel-lithium-for-ev-batteries-us-ev-battery-policy-cleantech-talk/
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Socialism Sucks • 10:04a, 12/29/21
AG
Socialism Sucks said:
Expect synthetic graphite to be labeled as "dirty" since it is derived from fossil fuels. Lithium Ion batteries can also be made with a blend of synthetic and natural. I suppose advances in purifying natural graphite have made it a more "green" option, while still having a cost lower than the synthetic stuff.

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/30/dirty-vs-green-graphite-nickel-lithium-for-ev-batteries-us-ev-battery-policy-cleantech-talk/
Nice.

For the record I'm a believer in them, I'm just operating on the idea they don't have their plant built and aren't producing product for another year.

Honestly, I could see this lingering around the $1-2 range for the next year until the plant comes online.

I think there will be spikes when news of deals get announced for them but the shorts will just run it back down to current levels to keep it cheap.

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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to agdaddy04 • 10:06a, 12/29/21
agdaddy04 said:
But isn't WWR's claim to fame the fact that they've refined the process to make the purest natural form?
That's my understanding
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 10:08a, 12/29/21
I updated my response with more information from an article I read. Check that out
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Red Rover
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 10:20a, 12/29/21
AG
That is my understanding as well. Most natural graphite producers do not produce the products usable for companies like TSLA, but WWR and some others plan to. They don't actually produce those yet, which is why companies like TSLA aren't signing contracts with them. Yet.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:21a, 12/29/21
AG
AMZN 3400 at $23. S/L 20
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 10:21a, 12/29/21
CrazyRichAggie said:
gougler08 said:
CrazyRichAggie said:
Cruise stocks getting hit due to COVID, feel like is knee jerk. Might be a good entry.
Something new w/ COVID or just that everyone has Omicron and won't want to cruise for a few months?
I am going to look at CCL $23 calls, 30 to 60 days out.
trying to fill the gap up to $21
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Engine10
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 10:39a, 12/29/21
AG
Triple_Bagger said:
I updated my response with more information from an article I read. Check that out

Thanks for posting all of that, good read. I've been meaning to look into it more and that was helpful.

I'm with AG 2000 on "lower for longer" here unless the sales deals that materialize are headliners, and even then it'll probably still fade until operations are running.

If this chart looks familiar, it's another pre-revenue ($0) company that has its plant under construction and scheduled to start in 1Q '22. Almost the entire production capacity has been sold out to a major name ($XOM) and both times when it ran on good news it's been sold back.
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wanderer
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10:43a, 12/29/21
2021 Recap/Summary

I've been investing for awhile but '20 was my first dabble into more active management in the market. 2021 ended up being a rough year for my accounts as smallcaps continued to get suppressed from March til now. Ended up with way to many losses (both paper & realized) from stocks like WWR, XL, IMMR, MGTI, DPW, ELOX, SINO, NXTD, WATT.

Every time I look at this graph is makes me mad. 2021 started off with a bang but I failed to take profits and instead sold CCs (OTM that expired worthless) or held on for dear life as the trickle down started. Obviously the fact that the major indices are up 20+% on the year makes this even that much more frustrating.



I'd say I play 85-90% of options plays OA posted on TA or twitter throughout the year. The image below shows the performance of these calls. (there are a handful of mixed in offshoots that I also tracked with these)

Keep in mind a few things:
  • This doesn't take into any account any calls I sold against purchased leaps.
  • This does take into account any stupidity by not setting proper stop losses
  • This isn't accurately showing any open calls I've bought (within the '% gain/loss column)
  • It's hard to tell from the image, but for the year these options plays ended up 12% for the year (which includes any open positions which are going to calculate as a -100% return).



I'm trying to better understand what my 'trading/investing style'. Part of me is telling myself "you suck, you can't even make decent money when the market is at ATHs", while the other part of me is saying to take it in stride, learn from '21 and use it going forward.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Engine10 • 10:48a, 12/29/21
AG
Engine10 said:
Triple_Bagger said:
I updated my response with more information from an article I read. Check that out

Thanks for posting all of that, good read. I've been meaning to look into it more and that was helpful.

I'm with AG 2000 on "lower for longer" here unless the sales deals that materialize are headliners, and even then it'll probably still fade until operations are running.

If this chart looks familiar, it's another pre-revenue ($0) company that has its plant under construction and scheduled to start in 1Q '22. Almost the entire production capacity has been sold out to a major name ($XOM) and both times when it ran on good news it's been sold back.
Interesting.

What stock is this?

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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to wanderer • 10:50a, 12/29/21
AG
wanderer said:
2021 Recap/Summary

I've been investing for awhile but '20 was my first dabble into more active management in the market. 2021 ended up being a rough year for my accounts as smallcaps continued to get suppressed from March til now. Ended up with way to many losses (both paper & realized) from stocks like WWR, XL, IMMR, MGTI, DPW, ELOX, SINO, NXTD, WATT.

Every time I look at this graph is makes me mad. 2021 started off with a bang but I failed to take profits and instead sold CCs (OTM that expired worthless) or held on for dear life as the trickle down started. Obviously the fact that the major indices are up 20+% on the year makes this even that much more frustrating.



I'd say I play 85-90% of options plays OA posted on TA or twitter throughout the year. The image below shows the performance of these calls. (there are a handful of mixed in offshoots that I also tracked with these)

Keep in mind a few things:
  • This doesn't take into any account any calls I sold against purchased leaps.
  • This does take into account any stupidity by not setting proper stop losses
  • This isn't accurately showing any open calls I've bought (within the '% gain/loss column)
  • It's hard to tell from the image, but for the year these options plays ended up 12% for the year (which includes any open positions which are going to calculate as a -100% return).



I'm trying to better understand what my 'trading/investing style'. Part of me is telling myself "you suck, you can't even make decent money when the market is at ATHs", while the other part of me is saying to take it in stride, learn from '21 and use it going forward.


Try setting a 20% or 30% stop loss on options and once a trade is up 20% move stop to break even.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Red Rover
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In reply to wanderer • 10:53a, 12/29/21
AG
I'd say take it as the latter. This is the first time in the last 6 years that my trading account didn't at least edge out S&P500. I'm still in the green a bit but it's frustrating. When I combine it with last year's ridiculous returns this year's poor performance is a blip. I take it as a reminder that even if you make the "right" decisions, by investing in and trading individual stocks you are still adding volatility to an otherwise somewhat volatile investment (stocks in general). Better portion sizing would have helped me. Also I should have avoided so many small cap growth stocks all at the same time and spread more towards the bigger cap stocks that made me money, like AMD, AAPL, TSLA, and KR. Also when it seemed obvious to rotate into utilities and I didn't do that because I was waiting on so many small caps to hit, that was my own stubbornness and I missed out.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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10:55a, 12/29/21
AG
I want to get 1/7 110C when Tsla touches 1067 in a few minutes
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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MRB10
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10:56a, 12/29/21
AG
I'm starting to see some news about NVAX EUA being in he near future. Is the general consensus that approval is already priced in?
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to wanderer • 10:57a, 12/29/21
2021 was a difficult year for active trading. Don't beat yourself up. Look at some of the large actively managed funds who are also down 20%+ for the year.

Something I noticed early in the year was that I was missing moves buying monthly options. Buying more time with my option trading increased my win percentage.

Also, selling OTM calls after a spike in stock price proved to be a losing strategy for me with these volatile small caps. I've done better selling ITM calls at or above a previous S/R or selling out of the stock and buying back in when it dipped.
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11:01a, 12/29/21
AG
Trying again on AmZn 3400C @18. Cut 16.75

Tight leash because if it loses this level it's toast.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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11:05a, 12/29/21
AG
The algos are probably going to push the market down here in a second and then we can go long
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Engine10
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 11:07a, 12/29/21
AG
AG 2000' said:
Engine10 said:
Triple_Bagger said:
I updated my response with more information from an article I read. Check that out

Thanks for posting all of that, good read. I've been meaning to look into it more and that was helpful.

I'm with AG 2000 on "lower for longer" here unless the sales deals that materialize are headliners, and even then it'll probably still fade until operations are running.

If this chart looks familiar, it's another pre-revenue ($0) company that has its plant under construction and scheduled to start in 1Q '22. Almost the entire production capacity has been sold out to a major name ($XOM) and both times when it ran on good news it's been sold back.
Interesting.

What stock is this?


$GCEH - plant in Bakersfield, CA.

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2021/0422_ExxonMobil-expands-renewable-fuels-agreement-with-Global-Clean-Energy-Holdings
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:13a, 12/29/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Trying again on AmZn 3400C @18. Cut 16.75

Tight leash because if it loses this level it's toast.


You can scalp for $2 here. I'm holding for a bigger move
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:15a, 12/29/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Trying again on AmZn 3400C @18. Cut 16.75

Tight leash because if it loses this level it's toast.


You can scalp for $2 here. I'm holding for a bigger move


Move stop to B/E
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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11:17a, 12/29/21
AG
Amzn calls up $3
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:21a, 12/29/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Amzn calls up $3


What happens at 3490, VWAP, is important.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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11:22a, 12/29/21
AG
The MM are baiting some longs in. Watch for them to flush all the stop losses and then the real rally starts. NQ 14400 is the level I want to enter.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:27a, 12/29/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
The MM are baiting some longs in. Watch for them to flush all the stop losses and then the real rally starts. NQ 14400 is the level I want to enter.


Aren't you glad we moved AmZN to B/E?
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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11:31a, 12/29/21
AG
Rebuy 16.6
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Spoony Love
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:31a, 12/29/21
AG
Are you saying MM's are walking down stop losses and then we could see a run to end the day?
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BlueTaze
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11:32a, 12/29/21
For those that want to get into the weeds on synthetic vs natural, here is a good video.

In a nutshell, synthetic is generally more expensive but better performing. However, WWR enriches natural to make up for degradation, but may increase cost a bit....although it's certain to be the cheaper greener option if they can make it to refining their own mined ore. Synthetic is not only derived from fossil fuels, it is much more energy intensive, so natural wins on ESG investment.

Tesla and other EVs will buy their natural product if they can get production up and running, and with WWR sitting on natural deposits they can probably squeeze their margins initially to gain market share.



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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to Spoony Love • 11:40a, 12/29/21
AG
Spoony Love said:
Are you saying MM's are walking down stop losses and then we could see a run to end the day?


Yes. Wait for them to punish longs. They will either rally it from here or they will do a punch down.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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11:42a, 12/29/21
AG
Give me 16400 you a-holes


You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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agdaddy04
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 11:59a, 12/29/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Spoony Love said:
Are you saying MM's are walking down stop losses and then we could see a run to end the day?


Yes. Wait for them to punish longs. They will either rally it from here or they will do a punch down.
Are you thinking I shouldn't have the stop losses in place that I just put on? Or just be ready to buy on a reversal?
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