Omicron going through our extended family and my wife hit positive on Christmas Eve…no real symptoms but now just hanging out all week with the kids and Christmas presents. Looking forward to the markets opening to get away from that for a while!
Stock Markets
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Last: 20 min ago by Imsodopey
Same for all of our family. Daughter in law was really hit hard. She's pregnant and luckily received the antibodies on Thursday. Felt a lot better by Friday. Everyone else doing okay besides some with really bad headache.gougler08 said:
Omicron going through our extended family and my wife hit positive on Christmas Eve…no real symptoms but now just hanging out all week with the kids and Christmas presents. Looking forward to the markets opening to get away from that for a while!
Cem isn't usually this direct
Hey Stonks,
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) December 25, 2021
I got somethin' real important to give you in ‘22
So just sit down & listen
Stonks, you know we've been together such a long, long time
(since ‘82)
And now I'm being forced by fiscal to lay it on the line
Wow, you know it's Christmas & my dual mandate’s offsides… pic.twitter.com/NT9xS5k2jg
January 19th
— Cem Karsan 🥐 (@jam_croissant) December 25, 2021
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I have never seen him call a specific day before.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Are you mother fruckers ready for some vol? Not next week. But remember the market has front run some of these things.
The Dow will be the most stable index.
The Dow will be the most stable index.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Are you mother fruckers ready for some vol? Not next week. But remember the market has front run some of these things.
The Dow will be the most stable index.
Bulls in control. They've got 1-2 weeks runway. If bears can flip it, they will have a large runway. If not, it could be Feb/March before bulls lose firm control.
No doubt. Trade what's in front of you. Just be ready.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,415
How long do you want to ignore this user?
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I have never seen him call a specific day before.
$30K - is Cem calling Jan 19th a market top? Or, the day the Fed raises a rate? Or, the start of a pullback? I dont understand his Twitter, or maybe I do.. Your clarity would be appreciated. TYIA
Yeah….all I got from his tweet was MotherLover.
Some clarity, I agree, is needed. And aside from his 66K followers, what makes him right? What is his particular skill set? Tom Lee said last week that the bull market goes till 2029. One of them, or more likely both, is about to be dead wrong.
Some clarity, I agree, is needed. And aside from his 66K followers, what makes him right? What is his particular skill set? Tom Lee said last week that the bull market goes till 2029. One of them, or more likely both, is about to be dead wrong.
Lots of thing collide between Jan 15-20. Jan 15 is a Saturday, MLK day is the 17th.
1. Joe Q Public and Maria Cristobal Mexico find out on the 18th that they didn't get their child tax money and they panic
2. Supreme Court could likely issue their ruling and uphold the vaccine mandate (FYI, they are not dumping it, best prepare)
3. FED could increase taper even further and signify an actual rate hike date
4. Congress races take shape and Domestic agenda aka further stimulus is over
I'm prepped and ready. Utilities, Banks during the dip. Chip stocks after the dip
1. Joe Q Public and Maria Cristobal Mexico find out on the 18th that they didn't get their child tax money and they panic
2. Supreme Court could likely issue their ruling and uphold the vaccine mandate (FYI, they are not dumping it, best prepare)
3. FED could increase taper even further and signify an actual rate hike date
4. Congress races take shape and Domestic agenda aka further stimulus is over
I'm prepped and ready. Utilities, Banks during the dip. Chip stocks after the dip
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:$30,000 Millionaire said:
I have never seen him call a specific day before.
$30K - is Cem calling Jan 19th a market top? Or, the day the Fed raises a rate? Or, the start of a pullback? I dont understand his Twitter, or maybe I do.. Your clarity would be appreciated. TYIA
He's hard to understand. He is saying with Vix expiration on 1/19 that the market will unwind after that happens. I don't think it means immediately, i interpreted it to mean that as soon as January Vix expires, the market forces keeping vol compressed will no longer be present.
I have thought Q1 would have some vol.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Based on flow, market has certainly been targeting February with some not friendly put lines.
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,415
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Got it. Again, thanks.
I agree with some vol and I'm leaning to Feb/Mar.
I always get nervous about 2 months and what they have brought me in the past as its usually not good. Those 2 months are March and October.
I agree with some vol and I'm leaning to Feb/Mar.
I always get nervous about 2 months and what they have brought me in the past as its usually not good. Those 2 months are March and October.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Yeah….all I got from his tweet was MotherLover.
Some clarity, I agree, is needed. And aside from his 66K followers, what makes him right? What is his particular skill set? Tom Lee said last week that the bull market goes till 2029. One of them, or more likely both, is about to be dead wrong.
I will give my personal opinions here. Cem is very knowledgeable and is right much more often than he is wrong.. he is a great Twitter follow, but I wish he used language that was more understandable. I can get it with a lot of thought, but I don't spend my time thinking about VIX convexity, vanna, and charm flows. Maybe I should, but that's Aggie Daniel territory. I'm the first to admit I don't have the skills or tools to enter and manage "long Vega gamma neutral" trades. Therefore I follow him for general commentary, most notably when you want to be long or short vol. he talks a lot about delta neutral rvol vs ivol. It's heady stuff and most traders aren't experts in it. I'm definitely not.
Cem's firm manages volatility funds. I'm not planning to invest, but it could be interesting in the next two years. He hasn't beat the S&P in them this year.
Tom Lee on the other hand, I view as a giant blow hard benefiting from the Fed's assistance. I want to see how he does with a more restrictive fed. My guess is not that well. I think his analysis, at least what he shares publicly is crap and I will never be a fund strat client.
They can both be right about the next 7 years. Cem is probably talking about a couple quarters. Most recessions don't last long. Tom is taking a longer run view. I think 7 years from today, the market will absolutely be higher than it is today. A lot higher in fact.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I want to learn more about "horizontal trading" this year. I think it will be a necessary tool for the next 2-3 years.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
sounds like having unpleasant dreams.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I want to learn more about "horizontal trading" this year. I think it will be a necessary tool for the next 2-3 years.
I always thought "horizontal trading" was the primary reason for divorces.$30,000 Millionaire said:
I want to learn more about "horizontal trading" this year. I think it will be a necessary tool for the next 2-3 years.
You referring to darvas box style with higher frequency lower return trading?$30,000 Millionaire said:
I want to learn more about "horizontal trading" this year. I think it will be a necessary tool for the next 2-3 years.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
FJ43 said:You referring to darvas box style with higher frequency lower return trading?$30,000 Millionaire said:
I want to learn more about "horizontal trading" this year. I think it will be a necessary tool for the next 2-3 years.
Calendar spreads and double diagonal type of trades. Premium farming from vol increase or decrease with fixed risk.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Horizontal "trading" and "boxes". WTH is going on here ?? Thought I'd forgot to close one of my other tabs.
I'll help you with horizontal trading. When I buy, that's the high-water mark. It'll drop from there. Once I sell, that's the low water mark and the share price goes up.
austinAG90 said:
Horizontal "trading" and "boxes". WTH is going on here ?? Thought I'd forgot to close one of my other tabs.
LMAO. I am too cheap to get divorced.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Talon2DSO said:
I'll help you with horizontal trading. When I buy, that's the high-water mark. It'll drop from there. Once I sell, that's the low water mark and the share price goes up.
Buy at support / demand. Sell at resistance.
Or buy at break above supply
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
How about BCDA or NTIP? I think I'll throw some money at it as a swing trade.
Morning Group…
The year end rally started a few days after we projected, but it is happening... Overnight some markets were closed and volumes were low... US equity futures are up 12 points for the S+P, which is another record... Both Nasdaq and Dow are up, but not very much... 10 years were in a narrow range of 1.47 to 1.49, which is where they are currently.... JPM was out overnight saying that investors were too bearish, and they do not see a stock sell off... Meanwhile the biggest SWF in the world sees a lengthy period of weakness in financial markets as inflation picks up.. The retiring head of T Rowe Price said that investors should step away from risk to avoid losses in increasing speculative markets... So you have three opinions...JPM is more for this week, the other two are more forward looking... They could both be right.
Biden will be announcing three Fed appointments this week, including the head of supervision... We think that pick will be the former head of CFPB, someone who has an ax to grind with banks... We hope he does not get approved... The other two should be more on the dovish side, but with inflation out of control we think they will support the current chair,
Fed and rates... Accelerated tapering starts in 3 weeks.. When the tapering ends in March there are many that think the Fed will immediately start to raise rates... We are not so sure... We think the Fed will consider letting some of the balance sheet to run off, which the market is currently not set up for... This should not be good for rates... We had it wrong at the beginning of this year thinking 10 years would get to 2%... That obviously did not happen, as 1.77 was the high... But we did think that 5 years would get to 1.31, and we got that one right. We think higher rates are back in the cards unless there is a severe equity correction... As of now we are targeting March 2022 for weakness... Just like March 2009 and March 2020... So we will see
We see multiple melt ups in the markets for the next quarter... Stocks are obvious as we said before... Too much money on the sidelines... But we can also see a melt up in credit... Short sellers of credit remain and we think they get smoked...for the cross-asset crowd, stocks and commodities, along with credit, will be the likely venue to source downside protection. We think we will see a shortage of HY paper in 2022... Just some thoughts...
Rates... 10 year support at 1.52, long bond at 1.92... We expect those numbers to be broken this week... But 1.70 10 years and 2% long bonds are unlikely... There is always window dressing going in the treasury market the last week of the year and extensions...
The year end rally started a few days after we projected, but it is happening... Overnight some markets were closed and volumes were low... US equity futures are up 12 points for the S+P, which is another record... Both Nasdaq and Dow are up, but not very much... 10 years were in a narrow range of 1.47 to 1.49, which is where they are currently.... JPM was out overnight saying that investors were too bearish, and they do not see a stock sell off... Meanwhile the biggest SWF in the world sees a lengthy period of weakness in financial markets as inflation picks up.. The retiring head of T Rowe Price said that investors should step away from risk to avoid losses in increasing speculative markets... So you have three opinions...JPM is more for this week, the other two are more forward looking... They could both be right.
Biden will be announcing three Fed appointments this week, including the head of supervision... We think that pick will be the former head of CFPB, someone who has an ax to grind with banks... We hope he does not get approved... The other two should be more on the dovish side, but with inflation out of control we think they will support the current chair,
Fed and rates... Accelerated tapering starts in 3 weeks.. When the tapering ends in March there are many that think the Fed will immediately start to raise rates... We are not so sure... We think the Fed will consider letting some of the balance sheet to run off, which the market is currently not set up for... This should not be good for rates... We had it wrong at the beginning of this year thinking 10 years would get to 2%... That obviously did not happen, as 1.77 was the high... But we did think that 5 years would get to 1.31, and we got that one right. We think higher rates are back in the cards unless there is a severe equity correction... As of now we are targeting March 2022 for weakness... Just like March 2009 and March 2020... So we will see
We see multiple melt ups in the markets for the next quarter... Stocks are obvious as we said before... Too much money on the sidelines... But we can also see a melt up in credit... Short sellers of credit remain and we think they get smoked...for the cross-asset crowd, stocks and commodities, along with credit, will be the likely venue to source downside protection. We think we will see a shortage of HY paper in 2022... Just some thoughts...
Rates... 10 year support at 1.52, long bond at 1.92... We expect those numbers to be broken this week... But 1.70 10 years and 2% long bonds are unlikely... There is always window dressing going in the treasury market the last week of the year and extensions...
$30,000 Millionaire said:Talon2DSO said:
I'll help you with horizontal trading. When I buy, that's the high-water mark. It'll drop from there. Once I sell, that's the low water mark and the share price goes up.
Buy at support / demand. Sell at resistance.
Or buy at break above supply
I was just making a self-deprecating joke
Well hello MARA...Sure am glad I loaded up on you last week
Of course it was for that. In what universe did you think it was okay to post a naked man spreading open his butt cheeks on our platform?
-Moderator
-Moderator
CEI spiking premarket
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Watching TSLA, if it can keep 1075 it can push over 1100 IMO
Those TSLA scalps are exhilarating.McInnis 03 said:
Watching TSLA, if it can keep 1075 it can push over 1100 IMO
$AMD liftoff
Went with AMD instead, don't regret it.McInnis 03 said:
Watching TSLA, if it can keep 1075 it can push over 1100 IMO
AgCPA95 said:
$AMD liftoff
Hells yeah!
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