Welcome back, how was camp?

mazag08 said:

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mazag08 said:

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BREwmaster said:

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anyone else notice this one AMC?

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The top was a full 5 waves up. Which means that what it's been doing since June is a 2nd wave retracement which usually targets 61% but can theoretically get as low as the start of Wave 1 (all time low in this case) as long as it doesn't break that level.

For AMC, the 61% retracement was $28.92 and it got it nearly perfectly on August 5 hitting $28.91. That level also happened to be really close to the 123% of extension of the a-wave (the initial decline from the all time high before correcting upward a little).

So there's an extremely good, and Fibonacci supported chance that the bottom is in for this 2nd wave. But I personally don't like the structure, and everything that has happened since has been corrective in nature which usually signals the potential that we are still in the 2nd wave and likely the b-wave of it which would correct upward. That would make all of the downward action between the ATH and $28.91 the a-b-c action of the larger A wave. The larger B wave looks to have landed between the 50% and 61% retracement of the larger A wave, with the c-wave leg within it hitting the 123% extension of the a-wave within it. So I feel very comfortable that the move up from the $28.91 low is indeed corrective, though I will keep an alternate on the table.



So that leaves us with the larger C wave. And remember, c-waves take the shape of 5 impulsive waves down. Starting at the top of the B wave on September 13th at a price of $52.79, we enter a clearly impulsive downward structure. While this could be an a-wave of a 2nd wave following an impulsive wave 1 up (the bottom is already in scenario), it is much more likely it is the C wave we are waiting on. Our current action would place us somewhere in wave 5 of C to complete our second wave in a not uncommon a=c manner (where they end up at the same general point on the chart. There's another a=c where they cover the same distance which would place this C down near $15 to close a gap way to the downside.. but I don't see that kind of tanking in the books).

Here's a zoomed in view of our C wave.



And if I draw on my chart.. I believe this is what the cool kids call "flagging" amirite?



As a reminder, there is a chance we've already bottomed and we're in a weird shaped retracement of the first leg up from the low. I would NOT bet on the downside at this point. Too much weird action in the overall market. And as Avi Gilburt always says.. predicting a corrective wave is like throwing jello for distance. Love that saying.

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Will it go all the way or turn up soon?

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Welcome back..........SINNER

bmoochie said:

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Welcome back, how was camp?

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I did some soul searching.. and decided that life is too short.

Apparently so is every stock we follow on this thread.

I thought this was a gambling thread

I think AMD is being shorted by a big one. Makes sense seeing a quarter of a billion dark pool print come through on the tenth at 138.55.



138.55 acts as major resistance the next morning.



Edit to say they also did it on December 8 which you can see in the pic above. >100 million in dark pool after hours that acted like resistance the next day.

I sure hope all you punks are done selling WWR for your taxes!

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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There was a great phase 20 years ago about arguing on the internet. It's the best way of putting it.

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I'll never learn.

BREwmaster said:

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I missed my exit on flipping verticals this morning on it (AMD) and saw the writing on the wall pretty quick and got out. I wouldn't get too bearish on it, as it's a great company and product.

BUT! the 100 day is a ways back at 122. (if the rest of the market decides to take a dump)

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I saw this big bet come through on my "sniper" filter on unusual whales. I jumped in and stopped out for a small gain right before it ran 40%.


I do agree it is a great company but it could have a pullback and still be very healthy.

I've seen this alluded, but this visual really puts it into perspective. Wow

S&P500

35% of the S&P 500’s YTD return has come from five stocks .. pic.twitter.com/8Te9odXDVa

— JE$US (@WallStJesus) December 14, 2021

wanderer said:

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I've seen this alluded, but this visual really puts it into perspective. Wow

S&P500

35% of the S&P 500’s YTD return has come from five stocks .. pic.twitter.com/8Te9odXDVa

— JE$US (@WallStJesus) December 14, 2021

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For you the better. Just because someone else is successful with their way of trading, doesn’t mean you will be as well. Study as many different techniques as you can. Put them together if you have to. Just find what works for you and stick with it. Never completely

— Yates Investing (@yatesinvesting) December 14, 2021

Change it, just tweak it when the market changes.

— Yates Investing (@yatesinvesting) December 14, 2021

AAPL with another upgrade and $200+ PT. They're desperately trying to keep the market up.

Tuesday Macros

Bank America is in the news today twice... Brian Moynihan is in the Hill saying that "consumers are spending at a faster rate than he has ever seen", which raises more inflation and supply chains concerns...and that spending on bank credit and debit cards has surged... In another , BOA survey by Mike Harnett, shows that Global Fund managers piled into cash in December. Setting off BOA's equity buy signal. This month's cash allocation rose 14% from November to an overweight of 36%... This all goes along with our view yesterday that most of the sophisticated equity positions are hedged... We still think there is a rally at the end of the year...

Treasuries rallied yesterday to resistance levels in 10 years of 1.42 and long bonds of 1.80... And stopped... Volumes were light and our view of net positions remains pretty much flat... Some of that rally reversed in London time with curve consistently higher in yield by 2 basis points.... We were asked of our three scenarios yesterday which one we think will happen... Given we are Hawkish ,and the economy is overheating, we will go with Scenario one... We think the belly is at risk as the Dot plots will be increased based on our perceptions of Fed speeches... And their is more of a fear of losing credibility of fighting inflation than that of slowing the economy... Employment is solid and if anything there are shortages of labor... Employment claims, as a percentage of the population, are at the lowest on record...

Equities are mixed to weaker this morning, led by the NASDAQ... Equities performed poorly yesterday... And may continue that trend for the next 48 hours... But corporate spreads are steady, CDX HG has been the same 53 handle the last three days, with HY at a 308 handle the last two days....there was no IG issuance yesterday and probably zero the rest of the week... Some HY issuance yesterday but even there flows into funds is positive...

Expect range bound trading today...while many fear a "mistake" by the Fed tomorrow, we think whatever they do will be taken poorly.... But fade the first trade and see how London opens Thursday....higher rates are coming globally... PPI expected at 9.2% today... And the market will take that in stride for now... But if reality ever sinks in, the negative real rates can't last forever.