Vix puts? I don't think this would be a bad play a couple weeks out.
Stock Markets
25,675,151 Views |
234876 Replies |
Last: 3 hrs ago by El Chupacabra
Not sure how serious the market is about this variant yet (today notwithstanding), but remember that big run in early October left a bunch of gaps in the 430s and 440s.
gougler08 said:Bob Knights Liver said:gougler08 said:
Just not even going to look at the account this morning
Probably smart. Just give me the account info and I'll check it for you. This is a service I provide to my fellow oilmen.
Account number: 1234567 / Password: oldarmyisgr8!
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
ROKU, NFLX, MRNA, PFE are up big this morning. Lockdown scare.
What should have been a quiet Friday trading in both bonds and equities globally has turned into a rout with massive moves over the fears of a new virus strain coming out of South Africa... One of our old bosses from 20 years ago sent us the YouTube describing it early on yesterday but the markets did not focus on it until last night... Multiple sigma moves across asset spaces with risk off, wider spreads and soaring treasury prices... GS, who came out with an aggressive move in Fed tightenings for next year, and a doubling of tapering starting in January, Thursday, seems to no longer be the case one day later...
Treasuries are clearly the biggest mover so far this morning. But we tend to think, given that shorts/longs are about neutral for month end trading, we think some of this might reverse... And that is what we are seeing now... 10 year treasuries, which hit 1.69 on Wednesday, and were at 1.65 at the close Wednesday, rallied all the way to 1.50 at 3.23 am this morning, now 1.55... 5 year treasuries, which hit our long term objective for 2021 last week of 1.31, got as high as 1.37 Wednesday, hit its low yield of 1.16 at 6.30 this morning... Curve is bull steepening... The markets are building out from 3 tightenings in 2022 to 1-2... Treasuries are trading 300% of normal volumes, with most traders taking today off, at least that is what they had thought..
Where could rates go?... 10 year hit the first resistance at 1.52-1.50 this morning... Next resistance is 1.45 and 1.38 after that... Similar to 5 years, it broke through the 1.21 to 1.16... We have 1.125 and then 1.03... It will be dependent on where 5 years close today... Yield curves have been steepening all morning... But it seems like rate moves in the US are moving more than in Europe, who is more vulnerable to the new strain.
Equities.. Futures markets have gotten crushed this morning... Dow was down at one point close to 1000, the S+P down over 100 points, and the Russell 2000 down over 3%... The Nasdaq is doing better than the other averages because of the correlation between lower rates and long duration Nasdaq equities...
Our view is that inflation is still a bigger problem for markets than Covid... But we said at the beginning of the week, the battle is between Covid versus Inflation.. And while Covid clearly won the battle fears this morning, we still believe that Inflation is paramount and the Fed will have to address this aggressively... As we were just writing our friends at Der Spiegal, in Germany put out this headline...
*WHO SEES NO NEED FOR TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS OVER VARIANT: SPIEGEL
Corporate spreads getting crushed today with CDX HY wider by 25 basis points, now back to 18 wider... Again, this move is affecting all risk classes from oil to commodities to credit spreads....
We will watch markets through the morning, but early closes are scheduled for 1 PM equities and 2 PM bonds
Treasuries are clearly the biggest mover so far this morning. But we tend to think, given that shorts/longs are about neutral for month end trading, we think some of this might reverse... And that is what we are seeing now... 10 year treasuries, which hit 1.69 on Wednesday, and were at 1.65 at the close Wednesday, rallied all the way to 1.50 at 3.23 am this morning, now 1.55... 5 year treasuries, which hit our long term objective for 2021 last week of 1.31, got as high as 1.37 Wednesday, hit its low yield of 1.16 at 6.30 this morning... Curve is bull steepening... The markets are building out from 3 tightenings in 2022 to 1-2... Treasuries are trading 300% of normal volumes, with most traders taking today off, at least that is what they had thought..
Where could rates go?... 10 year hit the first resistance at 1.52-1.50 this morning... Next resistance is 1.45 and 1.38 after that... Similar to 5 years, it broke through the 1.21 to 1.16... We have 1.125 and then 1.03... It will be dependent on where 5 years close today... Yield curves have been steepening all morning... But it seems like rate moves in the US are moving more than in Europe, who is more vulnerable to the new strain.
Equities.. Futures markets have gotten crushed this morning... Dow was down at one point close to 1000, the S+P down over 100 points, and the Russell 2000 down over 3%... The Nasdaq is doing better than the other averages because of the correlation between lower rates and long duration Nasdaq equities...
Our view is that inflation is still a bigger problem for markets than Covid... But we said at the beginning of the week, the battle is between Covid versus Inflation.. And while Covid clearly won the battle fears this morning, we still believe that Inflation is paramount and the Fed will have to address this aggressively... As we were just writing our friends at Der Spiegal, in Germany put out this headline...
*WHO SEES NO NEED FOR TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS OVER VARIANT: SPIEGEL
Corporate spreads getting crushed today with CDX HY wider by 25 basis points, now back to 18 wider... Again, this move is affecting all risk classes from oil to commodities to credit spreads....
We will watch markets through the morning, but early closes are scheduled for 1 PM equities and 2 PM bonds
Spread traders have the opportunity to buy back your sell sides today on the dip.
I think I'd look at scalping VIX puts today and possibly AAPL and NVDA calls.BaylorSpineGuy said:
What's everyone's wish list? I'm gonna try to stick to lArge cap and mega cap. Small ball stuff not working out with me.
Am gonna look at DIS, NVDA, and a couple others. NFLX is up today without surprise.
We need some good put options though. What stocks got shredded the most with lockdowns? Need something that's gonna drop hard for quick payouts? Airlines? Travel? Restaurants?
airlines were picking up flow end of last week and the setups looked good. I don't think a random variant we know nothing about is a long term trend, inflation is still the real elephant in the room. HD is still quite extended if you play puts out a ways or put spreads.
G Money said:
Spread traders have the opportunity to buy back your sell sides today on the dip.
I'm looking for some AAPL a couple weeks out.
VIX puts may be fun over a couple days.
I'm most interested in NUE, as I have been for a while. It gapped down with everything and it has enough steam to fill and move beyond.
VIX puts may be fun over a couple days.
I'm most interested in NUE, as I have been for a while. It gapped down with everything and it has enough steam to fill and move beyond.
and of course SPY, QQQ and NFLX lottos might work
NU variant killed Disney
I placed an order for a small amount of $162.5C AAPL before the bell at .25 and it filled. I'll be out quick with the short day.
SPR the tried and true on huge discount. Loading Up.
Bought puts on DIS. Will go long around 140.
Also bought a Dec 3 350C on MRNA. Have been up 99% in first 10 minutes, currently up 80%.
Now up > 100%.
Also bought a Dec 3 350C on MRNA. Have been up 99% in first 10 minutes, currently up 80%.
Now up > 100%.
You might want to sell this. Take some profits and then roll it up into a different strike.BaylorSpineGuy said:
Bought puts on DIS. Will go long around 140.
Also bought a call on MRNA. Have been up 99% in first 10 minutes, currently up 80%.
I bought CZR down here, shrs, not calls.
Let's see that reversal on fruit after the first 30 minutes. Should have waited a little while or really discounted those calls form above.
Sold it for about 165% gain. Not bad for 20 min. Made about $1000.
UAL buy?
I'd be weary of the travel stocks until they find some support. It is sitting on it's weekly BB, but if they run with this new variant in the media, it'll kill travel. Especially with an the weekend to ramp up the fear mongeringBrian Earl Spilner said:
UAL buy?
HLT, MAR, H, ABNB, LUV, UAL SAVE, LUV, AAL, are a bit too toxic with the media narrative right now.
Calls on totalitarianism and puts on democracy?
Philip J Fry said:
I just want to say thanks to the board. Imagine how many threads you can legitimately say are life changing. Well, this is one of them. I was recently able to purchase a house in the mountains thanks to some nice stock winnings (CLOV, NIO) and just got it posted for rent a few days ago.
https://t.vrbo.io/6apBoLNwtlb
This is a whole new world of investing for us. Even if we don't break even, we will still enjoy the hell out of it and live life to the fullest. This wouldn't have been possible without you guys.
It just popped up as a vrbo ad on FB!
Bob Knights Paper Hands
Joined:
Dec 22, 2010
Posts:
11,976
How long do you want to ignore this user?
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Calls on totalitarianism and puts on democracy?
Crying and laughing at the same time here.
If you want some exposure to the airlines, I'd go LUV. They're not as exposed to international travel and lockdowns as UAL, DAL, and AAL.
Stair stepping down
Bought UBER Dec 3 $41 puts for $0.85 on Tuesday. Sold them at the open for $2.25.
Still see more potential downside in UBER. Potentially to $35. But wasn't willing to wait on it.
Still see more potential downside in UBER. Potentially to $35. But wasn't willing to wait on it.
This is the excuse they have been looking for to dump retail.
Watching closely as selling puts will be lucrative today and early next week.
Watching closely as selling puts will be lucrative today and early next week.
Any thoughts on AI at these levels? Thinking about getting some shares and setting a stop loss at Wednesday's low of $36.21. Came across my scan that looks for stocks that are Bullish on the weekly MACD, and show a daily RSI of less than 30 within the previous 3 trading days.
I wonder if this might be what finally kicks ROKU back into high gear.
I'm actually bullish on UBER now...mazag08 said:
Bought UBER Dec 3 $41 puts for $0.85 on Tuesday. Sold them at the open for $2.25.
Still see more potential downside in UBER. Potentially to $35. But wasn't willing to wait on it.
I picked up a couple hundred shares at $39.25 in my dad's account
Irish 2.0 said:I'm actually bullish on UBER now...mazag08 said:
Bought UBER Dec 3 $41 puts for $0.85 on Tuesday. Sold them at the open for $2.25.
Still see more potential downside in UBER. Potentially to $35. But wasn't willing to wait on it.
I picked up a couple hundred shares at $39.25 in my dad's account
I am too. But I can see a case where it goes lower. I'm not buying long term calls here because I hate theta decay. But buying shares isn't a bad idea. Were far closer to a long term bottom. Way more upside than down.
As others have alluded (especially AustinAg), the way we got into this inflation mess to begin with was money printing/money supply expansion as a response to COVID.
If this new variant creates havoc, our government would be foolish to pass another spending bill like was done so much before. Additionally, with inflation rising, there is a clear temptation to raise interest rates. This market is indeed tenuous at this time.
Let's all use good caution on long plays here and time the bottom well. We can all have good opportunities, and all members on this board see things from different angles, so let's optimize here (as my old chairman used to say), and come out winners!!
Cheers!
If this new variant creates havoc, our government would be foolish to pass another spending bill like was done so much before. Additionally, with inflation rising, there is a clear temptation to raise interest rates. This market is indeed tenuous at this time.
Let's all use good caution on long plays here and time the bottom well. We can all have good opportunities, and all members on this board see things from different angles, so let's optimize here (as my old chairman used to say), and come out winners!!
Cheers!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
Sep 25, 2017
Posts:
5,420
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Back in June the big banks surveyed said the S&P 500 would end the year at 3800 to 4200. I don't think their crystal ball is that clear; however, their money ball has a lot more influence. I see today as a buying opportunity.
Those SAVA Covered Calls 12/17/21 - $110 - I sold on Wednesday at $1.05 when the bid was $0.90 and the Ask was $1.10....well, today the Bid is $0.85 and the Ask is $1.40. I sure hope SAVA shows us something favorable starting next Monday.
Have to leave for a while and wont make it back for the close. I hope you guys make a bunch of money the rest of the day!
BTHOlsu
Gig'em!
Those SAVA Covered Calls 12/17/21 - $110 - I sold on Wednesday at $1.05 when the bid was $0.90 and the Ask was $1.10....well, today the Bid is $0.85 and the Ask is $1.40. I sure hope SAVA shows us something favorable starting next Monday.
Have to leave for a while and wont make it back for the close. I hope you guys make a bunch of money the rest of the day!
BTHOlsu
Gig'em!
Q's testing $392 again
Took some time off to focus on a new home build/save after misreading some plays.
Where do we see the markets going in the next few months fivne the covid/inflation fear and the current and likely unchanging supply chain problems?
Do rates go up or do the feds try and not touch them until coivd really subsides?
Where do we see the markets going in the next few months fivne the covid/inflation fear and the current and likely unchanging supply chain problems?
Do rates go up or do the feds try and not touch them until coivd really subsides?