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McInnis 03
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In reply to 59 South • 9:09a, 11/18/21
AG
59 South said:
$AMZN looks prime to make a move to 3700.

McFly, since it is your specialty, can you design the board a trade for that move in the next couple of weeks. Maybe a 3600/3700 vertical? or 3650/3750?
I just spent 10 min looking at the chains......I am having a hard time finding anything I love, besides selling put spreads to be honest. You can risk $5K to make $2.3K on premium alone selling the Dec3 3600/3550 put spread......

If you really want to find value, I like the 3650/3750/3850c butterfly. You might get fills around $13 for a possible $100 return. (Goal here would be to sell on a move upward for 3x-5x though.

Buy 3650c dec3
Sell 2, 3750c dec3
Buy 3860c dec3
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mazag08
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9:09a, 11/18/21
AG
Russell down = bad for most of the stocks this board is heavy on.
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Cloud
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In reply to tlepoC • 9:12a, 11/18/21
tlepoC said:
Simulation confirmed.

If I sell a call, price skyrockets within 24 hours. If I buy a call, the price drops within 24 hours - once expired or I give up, price skyrockets. When I pull the constanza and do the opposite, the opposite occurs. Rough few months.


post your plays so we can fade them
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mazag08
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In reply to mazag08 • 9:12a, 11/18/21
AG
mazag08 said:
I feel 83.76% sure that SNDL put in a bottom today and is ready to resume upward.
Notice I didn't say 100%
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gougler08
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In reply to mazag08 • 9:13a, 11/18/21
AG
mazag08 said:
Russell down = bad for most of the stocks this board is heavy on.
Yeah I've been trying to rebalance as I'm too heavy on IWM stocks right now, slowly adjusting the portfolio
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Spoony Love
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9:13a, 11/18/21
AG
There is a fight going on for fruit at $154. I'm going to take a profit and get out. With opex week, below $154 seems like it will win.
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KT 90
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In reply to SpeedyAg90 • 9:13a, 11/18/21
AG
SpeedyAg90 said:
Looks like POWW just needs volume for a run.
So maybe next week, post-opex?

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mazag08
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9:14a, 11/18/21
AG
Whoever buys puts on NVDA and AMD when they peak is going to make an ass load of money. I'm not willing to risk it. But these things won't go on forever. And they are ridiculously extended.. especially NVDA.
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ibdm98
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9:15a, 11/18/21
AG
$SNDL

Looks to be filling that gap back to 11/11. Will be watching for a bounce off that gap fill ... will also be right around the mean as well.

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Maximus_Meridius
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9:16a, 11/18/21
AG
For those still watching it, looks like MARA is going to lose the 50d EMA. S1 pivot level is right at $48. S2 is down around $44.38.

Don't ask where the 200d EMA is.
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59 South
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:19a, 11/18/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
59 South said:
$AMZN looks prime to make a move to 3700.

McFly, since it is your specialty, can you design the board a trade for that move in the next couple of weeks. Maybe a 3600/3700 vertical? or 3650/3750?
I just spent 10 min looking at the chains......I am having a hard time finding anything I love, besides selling put spreads to be honest. You can risk $5K to make $2.3K on premium alone selling the Dec3 3600/3550 put spread......

If you really want to find value, I like the 3650/3750/3850c butterfly. You might get fills around $13 for a possible $100 return. (Goal here would be to sell on a move upward for 3x-5x though.

Buy 3650c dec3
Sell 2, 3750c dec3
Buy 3860c dec3
Good stuff bro! Man, they really need to split the stock. It would be a good one to buy stock right now, wait for the move, and then sell calls. Only $360k per lot of shares right now!
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ProgN
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9:20a, 11/18/21
Checked on the market



Shuts down computer
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M4 Benelli
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 9:22a, 11/18/21
M4 Benelli said:
Nibbled into ELOX, banking on an overreaction and some easy farm fresh pharmaceutical cheddah.

Will add to RGS and WWR if both dip a wee bit lower.


Brilliant play, Einstein.
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Chef Elko
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9:23a, 11/18/21
AG
Nibbled at some IWM weeklies for a bounce
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:26a, 11/18/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
59 South said:
$AMZN looks prime to make a move to 3700.

McFly, since it is your specialty, can you design the board a trade for that move in the next couple of weeks. Maybe a 3600/3700 vertical? or 3650/3750?
I just spent 10 min looking at the chains......I am having a hard time finding anything I love, besides selling put spreads to be honest. You can risk $5K to make $2.3K on premium alone selling the Dec3 3600/3550 put spread......

If you really want to find value, I like the 3650/3750/3850c butterfly. You might get fills around $13 for a possible $100 return. (Goal here would be to sell on a move upward for 3x-5x though.

Buy 3650c dec3
Sell 2, 3750c dec3
Buy 3860c dec3
Thanks for this. I need to spend some time over the break understanding flies better.
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Ags2013
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In reply to M4 Benelli • 9:26a, 11/18/21
AG
M4 Benelli said:
M4 Benelli said:
Nibbled into ELOX, banking on an overreaction and some easy farm fresh pharmaceutical cheddah.

Will add to RGS and WWR if both dip a wee bit lower.


Brilliant play, Einstein.
Eh - we've all done the same lol
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to deadbq03 • 9:27a, 11/18/21
This x 1000.

I keep dabbling in mid caps and small caps, but this market is built for behemoths.

No point trying to guess which **** company is gonna become the next Apple. Just buy Apple. Never sell and eat dividends.

*buys more RGS on the dip. (Just kidding).
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Ranger222
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9:28a, 11/18/21
AG
ROKU and DIS been taken out back and old yeller'ed. I have AVWAP support for ROKU from March 2020 low at 225. If that doesn't hold....we're looking at 160s. DIS with AVWAP support from March 2020 low at 145. My main interest will be in DIS once it gets there

Also blood in BYND PTON and Z. V will be joining those names soon.
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Ranger222
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In reply to Ranger222 • 9:34a, 11/18/21
AG
Ranger222 said:
ROKU and DIS been taken out back and old yeller'ed. I have AVWAP support for ROKU from March 2020 low at 225. If that doesn't hold....we're looking at 160s. DIS with AVWAP support from March 2020 low at 145. My main interest will be in DIS once it gets there

Also blood in BYND PTON and Z. V will be joining those names soon.

Add PENN and DKNG to the list too.

Damn a lot of old favorite stocks dying here.
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zag213004
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9:38a, 11/18/21
AG
Sold one RIVN 85p jan22 . Which if assigned would put my cost basis at 78 which I believe was the pre IPO share price

This is long term hold if assigned shares
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Ranger222
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:41a, 11/18/21
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
This x 1000.

I keep dabbling in mid caps and small caps, but this market is built for behemoths.

No point trying to guess which **** company is gonna become the next Apple. Just buy Apple. Never sell and eat dividends.

*buys more RGS on the dip. (Just kidding).

The Dec 2020 - Feb 2021 run up in small caps did a number on the trading psyche for a lot of people....since then I feel like too many (including me) have been trying to chase these low tier names for a run up that is never coming...sure some pop from time to time only to be stalled at declining AWVAPs from those Dec 2020 - Feb 2021 highs, nothing sustained and they are only drifting lower with time.

Meanwhile, the big cap names have had sustained multiple expansion since late summer into this fall. If you haven't been playing those names and a few runners like SNOW or RBLX, you're probably in deep red. Its clear to me the broader trend for the last few months has been money exiting out of the speculative names and flowing into the big caps...now the big caps are on their own Dec 2020 - Feb 2021-like run and holding up the indices, or else we would be in a major market correction right now. I don't know how long their moves can sustain before we see they too slowly hitting highs and begin their own drift down like many of the spec names have this past year.....
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E
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In reply to Ranger222 • 9:42a, 11/18/21
AG
Ranger222 said:
Ranger222 said:
ROKU and DIS been taken out back and old yeller'ed. I have AVWAP support for ROKU from March 2020 low at 225. If that doesn't hold....we're looking at 160s. DIS with AVWAP support from March 2020 low at 145. My main interest will be in DIS once it gets there

Also blood in BYND PTON and Z. V will be joining those names soon.

Add PENN and DKNG to the list too.

Damn a lot of old favorite stocks dying here.


Thoughts on PENN? Barstool has shown no signs of slowing down and have been opening up sportsbooks like crazy in different states.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Ranger222 • 9:42a, 11/18/21
AG
Ranger222 said:
ROKU and DIS been taken out back and old yeller'ed. I have AVWAP support for ROKU from March 2020 low at 225. If that doesn't hold....we're looking at 160s. DIS with AVWAP support from March 2020 low at 145. My main interest will be in DIS once it gets there

Also blood in BYND PTON and Z. V will be joining those names soon.

I know it's opex but it seems like a lot of these big boys are getting destroyed lately.

End of year profit taking starting soon?

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jwhitlock3
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In reply to Ranger222 • 9:47a, 11/18/21
Ranger222 said:


The Dec 2020 - Feb 2021 run up in small caps did a number on the trading psyche for a lot of people....since then I feel like too many (including me) have been trying to chase these low tier names for a run up that is never coming...sure some pop from time to time only to be stalled at declining AWVAPs from those Dec 2020 - Feb 2021 highs, nothing sustained and they are only drifting lower with time.
I feel like I'm the poster child for this though I'm sure I'm not alone in it. I have a small account so my position sizes are way too large in names like WWR, ELOX, CLOV etc. It hurts like hell, but I'm hoping for something that should be a lifetime activity that it's a good learning experience if nothing else.
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59 South
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9:47a, 11/18/21
AG
Current status of my relationship with $ROKU

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FTAG 2000
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In reply to Ranger222 • 9:48a, 11/18/21
AG
Ranger222 said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
This x 1000.

I keep dabbling in mid caps and small caps, but this market is built for behemoths.

No point trying to guess which **** company is gonna become the next Apple. Just buy Apple. Never sell and eat dividends.

*buys more RGS on the dip. (Just kidding).

The Dec 2020 - Feb 2021 run up in small caps did a number on the trading psyche for a lot of people....since then I feel like too many (including me) have been trying to chase these low tier names for a run up that is never coming...sure some pop from time to time only to be stalled at declining AWVAPs from those Dec 2020 - Feb 2021 highs, nothing sustained and they are only drifting lower with time.

Meanwhile, the big cap names have had sustained multiple expansion since late summer into this fall. If you haven't been playing those names and a few runners like SNOW or RBLX, you're probably in deep red. Its clear to me the broader trend for the last few months has been money exiting out of the speculative names and flowing into the big caps...now the big caps are on their own Dec 2020 - Feb 2021-like run and holding up the indices, or else we would be in a major market correction right now. I don't know how long their moves can sustain before we see they too slowly hitting highs and begin their own drift down like many of the spec names have this past year.....
Man this sums up things for me, probably lots of others too.
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La Bamba
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In reply to mazag08 • 9:55a, 11/18/21
AG
mazag08 said:
Russell down = bad for most of the stocks this board is heavy on.
Except IWM break out of the yearly consolidation pattern in late Oct and that still didn't really help the little stock very much. But yeah coming back down certainly doesn't help
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Ccutamu
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9:56a, 11/18/21
ALPP. Just got a contract with Army Corp of Engineers and inked a deal with the USAF yesterday. Volume today in first hour and a half is already more than the average daily volume.

Another small cap but might want to look into it if not in it from Orlando's rec from last year. It is up 12%. 26%.
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Aggie118
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10:00a, 11/18/21
AG
Anyone gonna take the opportunity to average down on CEI?
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Philip J Fry
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10:01a, 11/18/21
AG
So what's the long term outlook on CLOV? Still think it's a market distruster and hold?
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Ranger222
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In reply to E • 10:05a, 11/18/21
AG
E said:
Ranger222 said:
Ranger222 said:
ROKU and DIS been taken out back and old yeller'ed. I have AVWAP support for ROKU from March 2020 low at 225. If that doesn't hold....we're looking at 160s. DIS with AVWAP support from March 2020 low at 145. My main interest will be in DIS once it gets there

Also blood in BYND PTON and Z. V will be joining those names soon.

Add PENN and DKNG to the list too.

Damn a lot of old favorite stocks dying here.


Thoughts on PENN? Barstool has shown no signs of slowing down and have been opening up sportsbooks like crazy in different states.

Its into a big volume pocket now and probably won't find support until mid 30s
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mazag08
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In reply to Ranger222 • 10:11a, 11/18/21
AG
Ranger222 said:
ROKU and DIS been taken out back and old yeller'ed. I have AVWAP support for ROKU from March 2020 low at 225. If that doesn't hold....we're looking at 160s. DIS with AVWAP support from March 2020 low at 145. My main interest will be in DIS once it gets there

Also blood in BYND PTON and Z. V will be joining those names soon.
100% agree with everything you said, except my next ROKU support is 222.
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Saltyag15
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In reply to Ranger222 • 10:18a, 11/18/21
AG
I'll be loading up if/when that happens. Overall, the casino/gambling sector has been taking a beating over the last month. Even your bigger, steadier plays like CZR & MGM. Them, not as much, but they're still down.

Diamond hands sure would have been nice when I had CZR (FKA El Dorado) at $13...
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cageybee77
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In reply to mazag08 • 10:19a, 11/18/21
AG
mazag08 said:
Whoever buys puts on NVDA and AMD when they peak is going to make an ass load of money. I'm not willing to risk it. But these things won't go on forever. And they are ridiculously extended.. especially NVDA.
Actually AMD's PE ratio is high but not ridiculously so. FWIW yahoo finance says that AMD is still undervalued....not sure I believe that. But, I'll hang on to it for a while. like others, i've moved into large caps and have AMAT and MRNA so far. looking for another atm.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 10:21a, 11/18/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
59 South said:
$AMZN looks prime to make a move to 3700.

McFly, since it is your specialty, can you design the board a trade for that move in the next couple of weeks. Maybe a 3600/3700 vertical? or 3650/3750?
I just spent 10 min looking at the chains......I am having a hard time finding anything I love, besides selling put spreads to be honest. You can risk $5K to make $2.3K on premium alone selling the Dec3 3600/3550 put spread......

If you really want to find value, I like the 3650/3750/3850c butterfly. You might get fills around $13 for a possible $100 return. (Goal here would be to sell on a move upward for 3x-5x though.

Buy 3650c dec3
Sell 2, 3750c dec3
Buy 3860c dec3
If anyone took this play let me know how it works.
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