BBBY trying to form an H after hours.
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Last: 37 min ago by FishrCoAg
that's right, I think I remember now. LOL, yeah don't change it to something Sark related, he may be gone soon at this rate!Bob Knights Liver said:
I've been posting as Tomas Hermensa for awhile. I changed my screen name to make a longhorn joke, then they fire Tommy the next day and I couldn't change it back for 6 months and I just remembered today.
The meltdowns are epic though! He makes Fran look like a great coach.
mazag08 said:
PROG broke through resistance. Currently at $5.18
$5.26. Gimme $6
RIVN touched $179.47 today...
All the EV plays are up massively in the last two weeks - TSLA, LCID, RIVN, SPI, GGPI.Carlo4 said:
RIVN touched $179.47 today...
Hottest sector this month by far.
Except for NIO, the only one I'm in. Still banging my head against the wall for not loading up on LCID when it was in the 20's.
Yeah I missed on LCID as well. There will be a retrace on these EVs, no way they can keep running.agdaddy04 said:
Except for NIO, the only one I'm in. Still banging my head against the wall for not loading up on LCID when it was in the 20's.
NIO's different as it's Chinese. Everything Chinese is in check due to all the crazy crap with Chinese financials regulation stuff.
I could honestly see PROG hitting the previous high on the 1hr chart, $6.46 at the open tomorrow leaving a huge gap below, and then immediately dipping into a large retracement.
Reason being.. this thing completed a full 5 waves when it hit that previous high. But it hit it after hours and retraced so quickly that it never materialized on the 1D chart. It could very well be that this move is merely a capture of that level that will be reflected on all charts.
Reason being.. this thing completed a full 5 waves when it hit that previous high. But it hit it after hours and retraced so quickly that it never materialized on the 1D chart. It could very well be that this move is merely a capture of that level that will be reflected on all charts.
A nice 5% AH bump for CIDM.
Here's a new one for the board.
New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT)
My company has inked multiple deals with them this year. Some for pref equity and some for JV's, all on multifamily acquisitions. Their stock is sitting at $4.11 and has been under $5 since COVID. It pays a dividend yield of 9.5% and roughly $0.40 per share.
Their pref equity acts as debt in the property capital stack with an average of around 10% - 11% as the pay rate. On the JV side, they are inking deals with 8% yearly cash flow and an IRR of 15% or higher. That's how they can pay a good dividend. And they are buying more than they are selling, so the real payoff date is 2-5 years from now when all of this recent action matures and materializes in proceeds.
On the wave side of things, it's one of the cleaner fibbing deals I've seen in a long time. We're currently in sub-wave iv of Wave 3. We're looking for a bottom pretty soon around the 61% extension from our Wave 1 high and Wave 2 low. Getting in the game around the $4.00 level is a good time. After that, it's going to pop up in Wave 3 and top out at the 138% extension in the high $5's. That will be a good place to sell calls against your shares. Then it will retreat to the larger degree Wave 4 around the 100% extension at $4.84. That zone is where you buy your calls back if they haven't expired. Finally, it will finish it's 5th wave around the high $6's. Time to sell outright. The retrace from there should be pretty steep as that 5th wave top becomes our larger degree Wave (1) and we look for a Wave (2) bottom to retrace it 50%-61% down to the low to mid $3's. Then we start over.
New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT)
My company has inked multiple deals with them this year. Some for pref equity and some for JV's, all on multifamily acquisitions. Their stock is sitting at $4.11 and has been under $5 since COVID. It pays a dividend yield of 9.5% and roughly $0.40 per share.
Their pref equity acts as debt in the property capital stack with an average of around 10% - 11% as the pay rate. On the JV side, they are inking deals with 8% yearly cash flow and an IRR of 15% or higher. That's how they can pay a good dividend. And they are buying more than they are selling, so the real payoff date is 2-5 years from now when all of this recent action matures and materializes in proceeds.
On the wave side of things, it's one of the cleaner fibbing deals I've seen in a long time. We're currently in sub-wave iv of Wave 3. We're looking for a bottom pretty soon around the 61% extension from our Wave 1 high and Wave 2 low. Getting in the game around the $4.00 level is a good time. After that, it's going to pop up in Wave 3 and top out at the 138% extension in the high $5's. That will be a good place to sell calls against your shares. Then it will retreat to the larger degree Wave 4 around the 100% extension at $4.84. That zone is where you buy your calls back if they haven't expired. Finally, it will finish it's 5th wave around the high $6's. Time to sell outright. The retrace from there should be pretty steep as that 5th wave top becomes our larger degree Wave (1) and we look for a Wave (2) bottom to retrace it 50%-61% down to the low to mid $3's. Then we start over.
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h/t to you sir.Quote:
The meltdowns are epic though! He makes Fran look like a great coach.
That statement has so much depth, I'm smiling and sad at the same time. Smiling at the horn misfortune and sad we had to experience the Fran.
I continue to be bullish.
Watch Alert - if the Brainard chick replaces Powell I'll be bummed. Should Brainard get appointed to Chair and the Market does not dip - I'm bullish to May/June. If Powell is reappointed - I'm bullish to May/June. FWIW
I feel like I'm hitting refresh on this board waiting for 30k to come in here and tell me how we are trending at a +3 ATR on most EV stocks. The valuations and run ups seems off the charts. Feels like a TSLA run with no sales and everyone jumping on the infrastructure bandwagon. A dump, pullback, public offering seems imminent for a few of these companies
LCID up 142% in the last month
RIVN up 121% in the last week
Brewmaster may have to chime in on some verticals.
That said I hope all companies announce their formal agreement with WWR soon haha!
LCID up 142% in the last month
RIVN up 121% in the last week
Brewmaster may have to chime in on some verticals.
That said I hope all companies announce their formal agreement with WWR soon haha!
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
Joined:
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mazag08 said:
Here's a new one for the board.
New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT)
My company has inked multiple deals with them this year. Some for pref equity and some for JV's, all on multifamily acquisitions. Their stock is sitting at $4.11 and has been under $5 since COVID. It pays a dividend yield of 9.5% and roughly $0.40 per share.
Their pref equity acts as debt in the property capital stack with an average of around 10% - 11% as the pay rate. On the JV side, they are inking deals with 8% yearly cash flow and an IRR of 15% or higher. That's how they can pay a good dividend. And they are buying more than they are selling, so the real payoff date is 2-5 years from now when all of this recent action matures and materializes in proceeds.
On the wave side of things, it's one of the cleaner fibbing deals I've seen in a long time. We're currently in sub-wave iv of Wave 3. We're looking for a bottom pretty soon around the 61% extension from our Wave 1 high and Wave 2 low. Getting in the game around the $4.00 level is a good time. After that, it's going to pop up in Wave 3 and top out at the 138% extension in the high $5's. That will be a good place to sell calls against your shares. Then it will retreat to the larger degree Wave 4 around the 100% extension at $4.84. That zone is where you buy your calls back if they haven't expired. Finally, it will finish it's 5th wave around the high $6's. Time to sell outright. The retrace from there should be pretty steep as that 5th wave top becomes our larger degree Wave (1) and we look for a Wave (2) bottom to retrace it 50%-61% down to the low to mid $3's. Then we start over.
Somewhat related, but have you looked at IVR lately? Been beat down since covid as well and over 10% dividend yield. I have been in this awhile but have no real plans to sell except playing the covered call game and soaking the dividend. Always enjoy your analysis so I thought I would bring it up.
I saw a chart tonight of 30 min candles on RGS. Looks like symmetric triangle but within the triangle, there looks to be a completed inverse H&S. Maybe another pump coming? I'm guessing this will take us to the 3.70s-3.80s for new support (prior resistance).
Time to climb this mountain!
Would def be interested to see Mazag do an Elliott Wave on RGS.
Time to climb this mountain!
Would def be interested to see Mazag do an Elliott Wave on RGS.
I just spent 30 minutes charting it. If it's doing something positive, it isn't being very forthcoming.
Good news is, it looks to have bottomed. And even if not, you're so close to 0, why would you bail now? It has gaps all the way up to $17. Gap at $3.80 and then major resistance at $4.60.
There's not really anything applicable that can be seen with EW. It needs to show us what it wants to do first. Too bad put premiums suck. Could be nice to do those every month and accumulate shares when they're put to you and building basis cushion if not.
Good news is, it looks to have bottomed. And even if not, you're so close to 0, why would you bail now? It has gaps all the way up to $17. Gap at $3.80 and then major resistance at $4.60.
There's not really anything applicable that can be seen with EW. It needs to show us what it wants to do first. Too bad put premiums suck. Could be nice to do those every month and accumulate shares when they're put to you and building basis cushion if not.
The Atlas crew are talking an awful lot about MRAI. Anyone here have any history with it?
I bought 35 shares the other day. Trying to figure out when to take the money and run.Carlo4 said:
RIVN touched $179.47 today...
Deplorable Neanderthal Clinger
Prog over 6
I was hoping to roll the ITM calls I sold to get a little more premium, but Fidelity assigned those this morning. Wasn't expecting to get assigned so early in the week.McInnis 03 said:
Prog over 6
Elox just flushed.
Down to 1.10 now….
Down to 1.10 now….
ELOX flushed over the release of the Phase 2 results. Wow.
Elox reporting results today? Twitter saying they are positive. It shot up then has flushed some? We'll see
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Triple_Bagger said:I was hoping to roll the ITM calls I sold to get a little more premium, but Fidelity assigned those this morning. Wasn't expecting to get assigned so early in the week.McInnis 03 said:
Prog over 6
That's such BS. I guess you can't trade options AH but you can exercise them? Pisses me off when that happens to me.
Anybody looking at an NVDA play today? Reports after the close. Thinking about a call spread here.
Fortunately it would have only been a small profit (0.10 when I looked yesterday), so I didn't miss out on much. Still aggravating.
I have some ITM SAVA CCs I was going to wait until EOD Thursday to roll but I think I'll do that today. SAVA roll credits are 30x what PROG was and I don't want to miss out on that.
I have some ITM SAVA CCs I was going to wait until EOD Thursday to roll but I think I'll do that today. SAVA roll credits are 30x what PROG was and I don't want to miss out on that.
ZIM destroyed earnings.
Generated Highest Ever Quarterly Net Income of $1.46 Billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $2.08 Billion
Transitioned to Quarterly Dividend Payout, Declared Q3 2021 Dividend of $2.50 per Share, Representing Approx. 20% of Quarterly Net Income; 30-50% of Total 2021 Net Income Expected to be Distributed in 2022
Significantly Increased 2021 Guidance to Between $6.2 Billion and $6.4 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA and Between $5.4 Billion to $5.6 Billion of Adjusted EBIT
Q3 2021 Carried Volume Increased 16% Year Over Year, Significantly Higher than Market Growth
Now if only the company was called Rivian.
Generated Highest Ever Quarterly Net Income of $1.46 Billion and Adjusted EBITDA of $2.08 Billion
Transitioned to Quarterly Dividend Payout, Declared Q3 2021 Dividend of $2.50 per Share, Representing Approx. 20% of Quarterly Net Income; 30-50% of Total 2021 Net Income Expected to be Distributed in 2022
Significantly Increased 2021 Guidance to Between $6.2 Billion and $6.4 Billion of Adjusted EBITDA and Between $5.4 Billion to $5.6 Billion of Adjusted EBIT
Q3 2021 Carried Volume Increased 16% Year Over Year, Significantly Higher than Market Growth
Now if only the company was called Rivian.
Hard to be sad over a profit but I sold my Prog when it dipped under $3 last Friday. I was sure it was going to retrace down to low $2. Entry was $2.15.
Wednesday Macros.....
Credit Markets Showing Cracks..HY Down 5 Days In a Row...German 30 Yr Fails
We are starting to see cracks in credit and this morning, while the last German 30 year auction of the year failed...The German 30 year had to be reduced as there were not enough bids to cover the issuance. Even after the reduction of supply the cover was only 1.1... Could this bode poorly for today's US 20 year auction? We think so... Meanwhile in the credit space , both CCC and HY are showing strain. The CCC yields rose in yield for the 5th straight session to a 10 month high of 6.79%, and posted losses for 4 consecutive days, the longest losing streak in 4 months . Broader HY index yields rose for the 5th consecutive session, to close at a 8 month high of 4.33%...While these are worrisome trends, IG continues to come at a overwhelming pace as Baxter 7.8 billion deal highlighted yesterday's action as 12 other borrowers issued a total of over 18 billion, making the two day total of 40 billion..
8 Fed speakers today...we like Waller, who tells it like it is... Nonetheless the Fed is being bombarded with more inflation data... And the announcement of the next Fed chair should be made by this weekend....this morning we see that US single family rents are at up 10.2% YOY in September, the fastest ever pace since the data was first collected in 2004...and Powell's 5 inflation benchmarks are flashing amber... We see it as bright red... If the Fed does not start to take inflation more seriously, it will be ingrained for years in the psyche...leading to much higher rates.
We see both stocks and bonds trending water today so far... Another big move is projected after the 20 year today... It could go either way, but since the short base is limited we see it as more likely for 1.70 10 years and 1.31 5 years... The real fun starts if those levels fail... The catalyst could be a Brainard announcement...but even if Powell is reappointed the trend in rates is to higher yields.... And if you are superstitious, we have observed over the years, when new stadiums or arena's are renamed, that is a bad sign for the companies that get the renaming... The Staples arena is now to be named the CRYPTO.COM... Given the meteoric rise of Crypto, could that be a sign of a top? Have a good day
Credit Markets Showing Cracks..HY Down 5 Days In a Row...German 30 Yr Fails
We are starting to see cracks in credit and this morning, while the last German 30 year auction of the year failed...The German 30 year had to be reduced as there were not enough bids to cover the issuance. Even after the reduction of supply the cover was only 1.1... Could this bode poorly for today's US 20 year auction? We think so... Meanwhile in the credit space , both CCC and HY are showing strain. The CCC yields rose in yield for the 5th straight session to a 10 month high of 6.79%, and posted losses for 4 consecutive days, the longest losing streak in 4 months . Broader HY index yields rose for the 5th consecutive session, to close at a 8 month high of 4.33%...While these are worrisome trends, IG continues to come at a overwhelming pace as Baxter 7.8 billion deal highlighted yesterday's action as 12 other borrowers issued a total of over 18 billion, making the two day total of 40 billion..
8 Fed speakers today...we like Waller, who tells it like it is... Nonetheless the Fed is being bombarded with more inflation data... And the announcement of the next Fed chair should be made by this weekend....this morning we see that US single family rents are at up 10.2% YOY in September, the fastest ever pace since the data was first collected in 2004...and Powell's 5 inflation benchmarks are flashing amber... We see it as bright red... If the Fed does not start to take inflation more seriously, it will be ingrained for years in the psyche...leading to much higher rates.
We see both stocks and bonds trending water today so far... Another big move is projected after the 20 year today... It could go either way, but since the short base is limited we see it as more likely for 1.70 10 years and 1.31 5 years... The real fun starts if those levels fail... The catalyst could be a Brainard announcement...but even if Powell is reappointed the trend in rates is to higher yields.... And if you are superstitious, we have observed over the years, when new stadiums or arena's are renamed, that is a bad sign for the companies that get the renaming... The Staples arena is now to be named the CRYPTO.COM... Given the meteoric rise of Crypto, could that be a sign of a top? Have a good day
ROKU with a pre-market downgrade to a straight up sell rating with some absurd reasoning.
I see there is a gap from 266-268 from last November that is getting filled. Would like to see a blow-off bottom out of this, else I don't see a whole lot of support until closer to 217.
I see there is a gap from 266-268 from last November that is getting filled. Would like to see a blow-off bottom out of this, else I don't see a whole lot of support until closer to 217.
ROKU -3.5% pre. No idea the cause...
Brian Earl Spilner said:
ROKU -3.5% pre. No idea the cause...
Downgrades
Any wisdom on SNDL?
What's everyone's thoughts on ELOX here?
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