Seeing some alarming trends in the industrial sector,

While producers are able to raise prices their production is being curtailed due to increased regulation, labor problems, supply constraints and esg (companies spending time and resources on conservation projects that are "good for the environment" and the investor presentation but cost more than they will return)

I don't think Wall Street sees this in the next 2-3weeks/months but 1st quarter 2022 could get real nasty.

Anyone else have thoughts on these issues? The chemical sector could be one of the first places this hits the fastest as margins are small and very volatile there.

Am I too pessimistic?

Not at all stock related but I had to share the view from these seats!

since we talking football...

the best team in each state, check out Alabama, LOL:

The best team in each state: Week 11 edition 🚨 pic.twitter.com/tQIGhM7A8x

— Saturday Gameday (@SaturdayGameday) November 8, 2021

Red Pear Luke said:

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RIOT is up to almost $40.

WWR is at $3.83

PLTR did well on earnings.

Gonna be a good day me thinks.

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Then don't look at PLTR!

How's it going in here??

Long time no see! Finally completed most of my product launch and I'm back!

Holy hell the EV and green energy plays! Talk about parabolic moves on these things. Congrats to those that caught them. In reading and looking at old charts, some of these EVs and green energy plays seem very reminiscent of the dot com era. Very PR driven, but great to get in on them for the moves. Just be careful and take some profits. Don't get caught in the rug pull. The market feels very extended here and the ones that get pulled the hardest are the ones that have had those moves usually.

I've done a few swings off of 50DMAs the last few months, but not much trading. Finally have some time again. Looking forward to jumping back in on the discussions. I'm sitting on about 95% cash right now waiting for a little correction. Would love to see some selling pressure and a visit to the 375 area on the QQQ before I look to get truly long on anything right now. Lots of stocks look like they may be putting in some rounding tops right now which is a short term bearish sentiment. Not saying it will happen, just an observation I've seen in some charts.

Tuesday Macros.....

Treasuries Bull Steepen on Brainard Headlines... Fed Worries About Asset Prices

Treasuries have held support of 1.50 10 years and 1 5 years as headlines came out overnight that Lael Brainard was also being interviewed for Fed Chair and not just Vice Chair... Brainard is viewed as more dovish than Powell, even though we would dispute that, nonetheless treasuries bull steepened off support. Meanwhile the Fed came out with a report late yesterday showing concern about bubbly type asset prices and concern about Chinese contagion reaching global real estate prices... As for the former, it seems that the 800+ PHDS of the Fed can't seem to see the correlation with some of the most negative real interest rates we have ever seen versus absurdly rising asset prices... These asset prices are directly related to low rates in a high inflation environment... And unfortunately as global money continues to leave China, we think US assets can melt up further....

4 Fed speakers today including Powell... Bullard will likely lead the headlines as Powell did not say anything monetary related yesterday... We doubt he says much today... But the big news that will be with the market until Thanksgiving as to whether Powell gets reappointed with Brainard as one of the Vice Chairs, or Powell is sent his walking papers... Politico says Thanksgiving, but they also said Labor day...but now getting Senate approval given the debt negotiations will restart shortly along with the other massive bill , will be difficult.... time is of the essence.

We picked up an interesting comment from a colleague this morning concerning hedge funds and other fast money concerning the lack of liquidity in treasuries and the massive moves in direction and the curve... "Fast $ accounts are loathe to add new risk so close to year end AMID A LIQUIDITY DESERT and after poor recent performance. SIX SIGMA MOVES typically don't occur when people are positioned for them"... Meaning there has been tremendous bond volatility that has seared many of the fast money... Central Banks changing views to dovish in the face of very high inflation is behind this... It won't end well...

Today we have another big PPI report where we look for YOY of 8.6%... BB refers to this number as the Factory Gate Inflation... German Zew expectations number this morning was 50% higher than the expectation...31.7 versus 20... Things are getting better although we did see Covid cases higher in Germany in the last few days...

We are at an interesting time in the markets... Real rates are the most negative that we have ever seen... One colleague said that in 1947 inflation was 19.7% and the Fed kept the long bond at 2.5%... But well before our time... BB intelligence pointed out that on a technical basis they could see the Chinese equity market show another 15% down in Chinese ETFs..even top Chinese corporate dollar issuers, like Tencent, are seeing their bonds widen out 15-20 basis over the past few days and another 10 just this morning
... Some of that money is coming into the US,,, yet we see that GS is now buying Chinese real estate debt

Saving Grace... US corporates remain solid... 10 borrowers came to market yesterday issuing 11.7 billion... Ahead of the expectation for a 25 billion dollar week... We did notice that spreads of new issues came 3 wide to outstanding's...In HY Ford got the gold star yesterday coming to market with 2.5 billion dollar deal, that was green...4.8 billion in total came in the junk market yesterday.. Junk yields are back to 4.03%

Irish 2.0 said:

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How's it going in here??

Long time no see! Finally completed most of my product launch and I'm back!

Holy hell the EV and green energy plays! Talk about parabolic moves on these things. Congrats to those that caught them. In reading and looking at old charts, some of these EVs and green energy plays seem very reminiscent of the dot com era. Very PR driven, but great to get in on them for the moves. Just be careful and take some profits. Don't get caught in the rug pull. The market feels very extended here and the ones that get pulled the hardest are the ones that have had those moves usually.

I've done a few swings off of 50DMAs the last few months, but not much trading. Finally have some time again. Looking forward to jumping back in on the discussions. I'm sitting on about 95% cash right now waiting for a little correction. Would love to see some selling pressure and a visit to the 375 area on the QQQ before I look to get truly long on anything right now. Lots of stocks look like they may be putting in some rounding tops right now which is a short term bearish sentiment. Not saying it will happen, just an observation I've seen in some charts.

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Welcome back bro!

Ccutamu said:

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ELOX... can someone explain how ELOX is up .09 this morning on volume of 430 shares?

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Because it is only 430 shares and someone hit the ask on the L2.

Most platforms register the current price at the last 100+ share sale

Irish, McFly, and 59 South all posting on the same page? Did I just invent time travel?