This seems so obvious. If AMZN runs more this could keep running a bit, but I'll be watching puts here as well.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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That's what I'm seeing as well but I am only taking losses on puts and not calls.
Apparently SPY stonks only go up.
Apparently SPY stonks only go up.
i'm done gambling on when SPY will break down. i keep losing that bet
That's a tough situation. If you can handle the risk, I would wait and see what happens. I predict those will expire worthless. Did you make enough profit on the 80s to cover the 90s?AG 2000' said:
I need some advise, got caught on a SAVA trade.
I had some 11/19 80/90 call spreads that I bought a while back. Tried to leg out of them during the events of the week through yesterday.
Sold all the 80s, but didn't get filled on all the 90s. So now I've got a couple of naked $90Cs sitting out there. Is there a good way to cover that?
Could I buy 11/12s at the same strike with the idea to cover via those? Buy shares to cover?
Could also roll to a later date, higher strike for a credit but still playing chicken with the freight train.
Multiple lessons learned on this one for me but just trying to sort out the best response I can.
Anyone follow Usama Trades? His trades are really accurate.
ALL out NVDA 280c, bought 285c 11/05. This is like my 10th roll up on NVDA
— Usama Trades (@Usama_Mushtaq_A) November 4, 2021
I'm not buying more IMMR but I am selling 11/19 7.50 puts for 0.30 and won't be upset if I get assigned.
I got in this a little late with a small position when it was brought up a while back. My basis is over $6, so happy to be back in the green. I can't find what's moving it today. Do you have a particular target you are looking at?Engine10 said:
Which one of you wild men is slappin the ask on my OTC micro volume play $GCEH? That renewable diesel plant isn't going to commission until 1Q22 and no other news but we've flown from $3.5 to $7 in just three days!
It might have put in a bottom today. Chance of lower would be down to $7.00 at the lowest. But when it resumes back upward, you won't see these prices again before we see a series of higher and higher highs, potentially all the way to $20.Triple_Bagger said:
I'm not buying more IMMR but I am selling 11/19 7.50 puts for 0.30 and won't be upset if I get assigned.
I am just going to throw this out there based on some of the posts I am seeing. I am certainly not trying to give trading or financial advice, but just share some of my experience in 20+ years.
With day and short term trading (not long term buy and hold) I have always done "OK", kind of like when I go to Vegas. I win some, I lose some, and I am probably down overall if I had to guess, and I am not sure I would want to know that number.
I lost a lot of money last year during the wild swings of trading when Covid hit trying to predict time the point when the market would turn the other direction, both up and down. That is the root cause of many of my losses over the years. I would think we are overextended in one direction, that it's going to turn soon, and try to get a jump on the market. This worked out horribly for me.
Contrast that when about 3 months ago, I started trading the way the market is going, both up and down. September was brutal for the market, but I made more money than I ever had. That was mostly on a few big drops in SPY, seeing the dip, waiting until the reverse direction was firmly established, then getting in. That is quite a contrast then trying to get ahead of the market. Also, when I had a decent profit % wise or dollarwise, I would take it and go to the next trade. I left money on the table. but I still had a table.
My case in point right now is TSLA. Contrary to my main strategy, I think it is hugely overvalued being up 50% in like a month on very little fundamental change, but it doesn't really matter what I think. The market is bidding this thing to the moon. I am in puts I bought when it was around 1170, and I am now debating taking the sizeable loss and moving to the next trade. I have until 11/19, but it isn't showing any signs of weakness. It is a hard pill to swallow, but I have found if I get out of a loser, and then try to get back on a winning streak, I do much better. I have more winners than losers, but historically my losers were so big that I needed 20 winners to make it up. That is a hard ratio to pick.
This is with the real money. I am not discouraging using play money for the lotto's, memes and highly speculative plays with money you can lose. They are fun and I look at that as entertainment dollars (like Vegas).
Just my $0.02. Well, that lesson cost me a lot more than $0.02.
With day and short term trading (not long term buy and hold) I have always done "OK", kind of like when I go to Vegas. I win some, I lose some, and I am probably down overall if I had to guess, and I am not sure I would want to know that number.
I lost a lot of money last year during the wild swings of trading when Covid hit trying to predict time the point when the market would turn the other direction, both up and down. That is the root cause of many of my losses over the years. I would think we are overextended in one direction, that it's going to turn soon, and try to get a jump on the market. This worked out horribly for me.
Contrast that when about 3 months ago, I started trading the way the market is going, both up and down. September was brutal for the market, but I made more money than I ever had. That was mostly on a few big drops in SPY, seeing the dip, waiting until the reverse direction was firmly established, then getting in. That is quite a contrast then trying to get ahead of the market. Also, when I had a decent profit % wise or dollarwise, I would take it and go to the next trade. I left money on the table. but I still had a table.
My case in point right now is TSLA. Contrary to my main strategy, I think it is hugely overvalued being up 50% in like a month on very little fundamental change, but it doesn't really matter what I think. The market is bidding this thing to the moon. I am in puts I bought when it was around 1170, and I am now debating taking the sizeable loss and moving to the next trade. I have until 11/19, but it isn't showing any signs of weakness. It is a hard pill to swallow, but I have found if I get out of a loser, and then try to get back on a winning streak, I do much better. I have more winners than losers, but historically my losers were so big that I needed 20 winners to make it up. That is a hard ratio to pick.
This is with the real money. I am not discouraging using play money for the lotto's, memes and highly speculative plays with money you can lose. They are fun and I look at that as entertainment dollars (like Vegas).
Just my $0.02. Well, that lesson cost me a lot more than $0.02.
GOOGL activity reminds me of Amzn yesterday.
I'm seeing where I can find value on spreads
Update: eyeballing nov12 3000/3050 call spread for about $15.
I'm seeing where I can find value on spreads
Update: eyeballing nov12 3000/3050 call spread for about $15.
***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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When I am playing lottos against the current trend I use multi-leg option trades, like spreads and butterflies. This holds down the cost to protect capital. I have TSLA put butterflies right now that could pay 10x or more even without it maxing.
Agreed.Max Stonetrail said:
I am just going to throw this out there based on some of the posts I am seeing. I am certainly not trying to give trading or financial advice, but just share some of my experience in 20+ years.
With day and short term trading (not long term buy and hold) I have always done "OK", kind of like when I go to Vegas. I win some, I lose some, and I am probably down overall if I had to guess, and I am not sure I would want to know that number.
I lost a lot of money last year during the wild swings of trading when Covid hit trying to predict time the point when the market would turn the other direction, both up and down. That is the root cause of many of my losses over the years. I would think we are overextended in one direction, that it's going to turn soon, and try to get a jump on the market. This worked out horribly for me.
Contrast that when about 3 months ago, I started trading the way the market is going, both up and down. September was brutal for the market, but I made more money than I ever had. That was mostly on a few big drops in SPY, seeing the dip, waiting until the reverse direction was firmly established, then getting in. That is quite a contrast then trying to get ahead of the market. Also, when I had a decent profit % wise or dollarwise, I would take it and go to the next trade. I left money on the table. but I still had a table.
My case in point right now is TSLA. Contrary to my main strategy, I think it is hugely overvalued being up 50% in like a month on very little fundamental change, but it doesn't really matter what I think. The market is bidding this thing to the moon. I am in puts I bought when it was around 1170, and I am now debating taking the sizeable loss and moving to the next trade. I have until 11/19, but it isn't showing any signs of weakness. It is a hard pill to swallow, but I have found if I get out of a loser, and then try to get back on a winning streak, I do much better. I have more winners than losers, but historically my losers were so big that I needed 20 winners to make it up. That is a hard ratio to pick.
This is with the real money. I am not discouraging using play money for the lotto's, memes and highly speculative plays with money you can lose. They are fun and I look at that as entertainment dollars (like Vegas).
Just my $0.02. Well, that lesson cost me a lot more than $0.02.
What does 30K say? Trade what's in front of you.
I think my hedges on puts, VIX have probably been majority losers this year. Just going to read the charts and trade accordingly.
Can you give an example of what you've got?Tomas Hermensa said:
When I am playing lottos against the current trend I use multi-leg option trades, like spreads and butterflies. This holds down the cost to protect capital. I have TSLA put butterflies right now that could pay 10x or more even without it maxing.
Triple_Bagger said:That's a tough situation. If you can handle the risk, I would wait and see what happens. I predict those will expire worthless. Did you make enough profit on the 80s to cover the 90s?AG 2000' said:
I need some advise, got caught on a SAVA trade.
I had some 11/19 80/90 call spreads that I bought a while back. Tried to leg out of them during the events of the week through yesterday.
Sold all the 80s, but didn't get filled on all the 90s. So now I've got a couple of naked $90Cs sitting out there. Is there a good way to cover that?
Could I buy 11/12s at the same strike with the idea to cover via those? Buy shares to cover?
Could also roll to a later date, higher strike for a credit but still playing chicken with the freight train.
Multiple lessons learned on this one for me but just trying to sort out the best response I can.
Thanks. I'm inclined to risk it as well.
Not quite a neutral / profitable trade on the 80s relative to covering goes.
I did grab some 11/12 80s late yesterday as well. Theoretically if it keeps running I could just exercise those next Friday and have shares to cover the naked calls. Feels kinda hokie but there's still a lot of trading days between now and then.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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There's a W forming on SAVA. Do we fill that gap to $115 today?
I want to sell some CC's but cant decide where.Tomas Hermensa said:
There's a W forming on SAVA. Do we fill that gap to $115 today?
Casinos stocks taking a dive. Been eyeballing getting into PENN for awhile. Keep dip baby.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Ah then you're safe for now. You could even close the 11/12 80s and the 11/19 90s at the same time. That's probably what I'd do. I'm sure there's a name for it, it's like the inverse of mcinnis' poor man covered call.
I just rotated the 64C I had sold for this week to a 75C a month out for a net gain.
So, yeah, it'll probably rocket again.
So, yeah, it'll probably rocket again.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Dkng getting rekt, earnings tonight. I just bought back the short leg of some spreads
McInnis 03 said:So hard to say,AG 2000' said:Would it be dumb to jump in here here?McInnis 03 said:TRADE OF THE FREAKING WEEK, OMGMcInnis 03 said:
AMZN calls coming in on weekly 3350's 3400 and 3500s......
NOV 12 3400/3500's are moving too. Spend 15 to possibly get 100
Having some serious FOMO and fixing to have some SAVA walking around money.
All I can tell you is my $14 spread is now worth $45 and still going. (I realize this doesn't help your fomo)
Thanks. I did FOMO it but when things leveled out at the 3460 area I FOGRO'ed (fear of geting ran over)'ed it.
In at 45, out at 52 and change. I'll take it.
SQ earnings AH.. anyone have expectations?
VIX up 3%
If the last two weeks have shown us anything, damn near everything is getting sold off after earnings. I'd be out before close.*cjo03 said:
SQ earnings AH.. anyone have expectations?
*All of McInnis signature disclaimers apply.
Quote:
'SAVA Nothing disclosed today improves fundamentals or increases likelihood of simufilam's success. It only makes the stock price more volatile, so trade on. Will simufilam work? No, almost certainly not...' -Tweet From STAT's Adam Feuerstein
$SAVA Nothing disclosed today improves fundamentals or increases likelihood of simufilam’s success. It only makes the stock price more volatile, so trade on.
— Adam Feuerstein 💉 (@adamfeuerstein) November 4, 2021
Will simufilam work? No, almost certainly not. When will the truth be revealed? It’s anyone’s guess. That’s biotech.
I wish this short seller would die a painful slow death.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
He scared
I don't think he's the short seller mastermind. I do think he's being paid by the main guy to keep SAVA down though.NRD09 said:
He scared
He's been negative on SAVA since long before the big short attack. But with similar motives. He only seems to pop his head up on SAVA when it runs.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
I'm sure you're right, but someone's scared. "Ok we lied, but the drug probably doesn't work" Such garbage
Big Moves Start About 18 Hours After the Fed Presser...Bull Steepening
We said both Tuesday and Wednesday that the big move in treasuries starts about 18 hours after the presser... At 2PM yesterday the 5/30 curve was flatter by 7... It then reversed steeper by 10... And it is steeper again by 3... And the 5 year better by over 11 basis from the Fed announcement... Why is that??? Because Powell refused to talk about raising rates... And that gave the Doves of the market and caused the BOE to blink this morning from their expectation of a rate rise... None of the big central banks want to be first in raising rates as fears of a taper tantrum are one trade away....
Rates... BULL STEEPENING... 5 years have pierced our 1.125 resistance... If the market continues then 1.04 is next resistance... 10 years are at our 1.52 resistance level, if that gets penetrated than 1.48 and then 1.42... We would not be surprised to see treasuries at higher levels at 8.28 am tomorrow... Then the fireworks begin if the employment number is significantly higher than the 450 prediction, which is what we think... Or a low or negative number because of all the seasonal's that are no longer accurately predicting employment
We said both Tuesday and Wednesday that the big move in treasuries starts about 18 hours after the presser... At 2PM yesterday the 5/30 curve was flatter by 7... It then reversed steeper by 10... And it is steeper again by 3... And the 5 year better by over 11 basis from the Fed announcement... Why is that??? Because Powell refused to talk about raising rates... And that gave the Doves of the market and caused the BOE to blink this morning from their expectation of a rate rise... None of the big central banks want to be first in raising rates as fears of a taper tantrum are one trade away....
Rates... BULL STEEPENING... 5 years have pierced our 1.125 resistance... If the market continues then 1.04 is next resistance... 10 years are at our 1.52 resistance level, if that gets penetrated than 1.48 and then 1.42... We would not be surprised to see treasuries at higher levels at 8.28 am tomorrow... Then the fireworks begin if the employment number is significantly higher than the 450 prediction, which is what we think... Or a low or negative number because of all the seasonal's that are no longer accurately predicting employment
Of course.AG 2000' said:
VIX up 3%
My $17 call expired yesterday
Thoughts on SKLZ? They beat on EPS, but missed on revenue and sales.
Down today, and got a downgrade on price from $15 to 12 from one of the big analyst groups.
Down today, and got a downgrade on price from $15 to 12 from one of the big analyst groups.
Well call me crazy but I took a bit of UAL+DIS profit and bought even more ROKU at 288.
Longtime SAVA bear Dr. Elisabeth Bik made her twitter private today. She's published a few articles accusing SAVA of fraud. Here's her current twitter bio:
"Science consultant, PhD. Microbiome, science integrity, image forensics. Too many unkind trolls around, so account locked for now. She/her"
Also, the guy who created the websites yesterday accusing SAVA of fraud has blocked me. His twitter is Adrian_h.
SAVA shorts got pounded today.
"Science consultant, PhD. Microbiome, science integrity, image forensics. Too many unkind trolls around, so account locked for now. She/her"
Also, the guy who created the websites yesterday accusing SAVA of fraud has blocked me. His twitter is Adrian_h.
SAVA shorts got pounded today.
If anyone wants to see a textbook flag, check out $PTLO on the minute chart.
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