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McInnis 03
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11:28p, 10/2/21
AG
Y'all see that giant put collar that went Thurs?

Go read this.

***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

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BaylorSpineGuy
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7:48a, 10/3/21
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/vaccine-mandates-hit-amid-historic-health-care-staff-shortage/ar-AAP4dew

More excitement on healthcare labor shortages. So the question then is why. Is real inflation (not the crap we are spoon fed by media and government) so bad that current job pay rates are inadequate to encourage work? We never actually raised minimum wage but the effect is that people now won't work for less than $15/hr. Guess what….most businesses don't want to pay unskilled labor a high wage.

Ultimately, all these current events we see daily (labor shortages, commodities prices going up, inflationary pressures, etc.) all have economic explanations. These didn't come from left field and catch us off guard. Supply chain issues can be resolved quickly if there is $$ at the end of the rainbow. People wanna work if a reasonable amount of money can be made and the the purchasing value of the dollar is good.

This is why I remain generally bearish in medium to long term. Short term (I.e. this week in the market), I have no idea. Joe Biden could fart on TV and the SPY would go up 1% on the comedy of it all.
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KY-AG 10
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:07a, 10/3/21
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/vaccine-mandates-hit-amid-historic-health-care-staff-shortage/ar-AAP4dew

More excitement on healthcare labor shortages. So the question then is why. Is real inflation (not the crap we are spoon fed by media and government) so bad that current job pay rates are inadequate to encourage work? We never actually raised minimum wage but the effect is that people now won't work for less than $15/hr. Guess what….most businesses don't want to pay unskilled labor a high wage.

Ultimately, all these current events we see daily (labor shortages, commodities prices going up, inflationary pressures, etc.) all have economic explanations. These didn't come from left field and catch us off guard. Supply chain issues can be resolved quickly if there is $$ at the end of the rainbow. People wanna work if a reasonable amount of money can be made and the the purchasing value of the dollar is good.

This is why I remain generally bearish in medium to long term. Short term (I.e. this week in the market), I have no idea. Joe Biden could fart on TV and the SPY would go up 1% on the comedy of it all.


First off let me say I would gladly welcome the event in your last sentence.
Regarding supply chain, I think that is a difficult problem that eventually will become a bubble. Demand for everything from steel, to screws, plastic, wood, etc are so high. My plant is investing in more and more advanced production equipment to meet our customer demands. Our suppliers are doing the same for us. And their suppliers them. It's a big bullwhip right now. So yes it's a money thing. But equally so a time thing. Every asset we add to get more capacity is also an asset that's taking time to arrive. At some point we'll finally reach a balance. And shortly after a glut of supply. I'm unsure how some companies intend to manage that change. I can only speak to what we're doing knowing that day will eventually be upon us
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SoTXAg09
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 9:13a, 10/3/21
AG
It sounds like an industry that was already stretched thin pre-COVID, and the pandemic has just exacerbated things.

Quote:
Factors include exhaustion-fueled retirements and resignations; absences due to illness and quarantine; immigration limits in recent years; and the lure of lucrative "travel" contracts from competing employers around the country. Now, add vaccine resistance to the mix.


The travel contracts have been brought up here before; these nurses are now able to work less and make the same or better money. Sounds like a no-brainer if travel isn't a problem.
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LOYAL AG
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 9:32a, 10/3/21
AG
McInnis 03 said:
Y'all see that giant put collar that went Thurs?

Go read this.



So he talks at the end of the thread about 4450 being a magnet but that trade reads like a bearish one to me. What am I missing?
A fearful society is a compliant society. That's why Democrats and criminals prefer their victims to be unarmed. Gun Control is not about guns, it's about control.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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9:53a, 10/3/21
Agree with all comments. Just seems like things are so stretched. I have to believe at some level that printing more cash last year than was circulating in 2008 only creates real economic consequences. If the dollar doesn't go as far, people need more of it. The problem is that our wages are largely fixed, and people are actually becoming poorer a s able to do less with their dollar.

But this is true for shipping, manufacturing, production, labor, etc. this is the supply chain. It's been carved up by inflation. That's my suspicion, at least.

Certainly shutting the world down for a time didn't help, but I would've guessed we would have seen these issues come to a head sooner (like shortly after re-opening).

It's all conjecture at this point, but the truth will declare itself in due time. Let's not forget though the nefarious nature of our leaders. They told us no inflation, then transitory, then that it was good for us, and now that it'll be here for a while….
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slacker00
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In reply to LOYAL AG • 10:25a, 10/3/21
AG
My takeaway is not the initial trade but we know the MM will hedge their positions. The trade is so large that those hedges have big is impacts. It is about what the MM has to do as the price of the underlying moves.
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KY-AG 10
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12:39p, 10/3/21
AG
Connecting some dots from various happenings the last week or so and looked back at some WWR presentations.
Ford announced 3 battery factories and a truck plant to be built in Tennessee and Kentucky. Existing Ford plant already in Louisville. WWR location in central Alabama. WWR presentation referred to the f150 lightning battery having up to 450lbs of graphite. Heavy stuff costs a lot to transport. Seems like they're working on a pretty efficient supply chain for battery plants and vehicle production in this central us area. Man I'd love to know what big fish are jockeying for preferred positions in the WWR supply
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GTIAG09
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12:39p, 10/3/21
AG
Any thoughts on DKNG? Similar to Wish, the Weekly MACD is still Bullish at .19, and the RSI was below 30 on Thursday, but above it on Friday. Also, Thursday candle followed by Friday candle appears to be a Bullish Harami Cross in my opinion. Thursday candle also bounced off of the 23.6% Fib. Retracement from the uptrend from 7/19 to 9/8. I am eyeing 10/15 $54 calls going for about .8 right now.



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GTIAG09
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2:02p, 10/3/21
AG
One more to throw out there. $GRUB. Not one that I plan on playing, just want to gauge y'alls thoughts on it. It meets the 3 screen summary of having a weekly bullish MACD, and the daily RSI was below 30 on Thursday but slightly above it on Friday. Not sure how much lower this one will go, and it'd be amazing to see it fill that nice gap back up to the $59/60 range. If I were to take a long in this, it'd be with a stop loss at the low of Thursday at 14.49. The gap down was due to Grub merging with Just Eat Takeaway's back in June. Thanks as always.



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docaggie
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In reply to SoTXAg09 • 4:05p, 10/3/21
AG
SoTXAg09 said:
It sounds like an industry that was already stretched thin pre-COVID, and the pandemic has just exacerbated things.

Quote:
Factors include exhaustion-fueled retirements and resignations; absences due to illness and quarantine; immigration limits in recent years; and the lure of lucrative "travel" contracts from competing employers around the country. Now, add vaccine resistance to the mix.


The travel contracts have been brought up here before; these nurses are now able to work less and make the same or better money. Sounds like a no-brainer if travel isn't a problem.
For most of these nurses, "travel" means a short drive down the road.

We've had some quit just to turn around and be PRN nurses at our own institution, effectively given themselves a large pay raise.

I mean, it's hard to fault them for managing to make their entire yearly wage in 1/3 the time.
But it does cause problems for those who haven't left, as they are working alongside someone who is doing the exact same job but making 3x as much.

There are also more people retiring after this long bull run.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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FJ43
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6:05p, 10/3/21
Gents I'll be traveling from very early EST tomorrow so no morning snapshot the next couple days. Hopefully back in the trading saddle Tuesday afternoon at some point.

Good luck, trade wisely and keep the lights on for me.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11

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ibdm98
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:13p, 10/3/21
AG
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Maximus_Meridius
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In reply to FJ43 • 7:12p, 10/3/21
AG
Safe travels to you, sir! We'll try not to crash the markets while you're out.
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wanderer
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7:23p, 10/3/21
Not great

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ProgN
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8:06p, 10/3/21


This is an informative Twitter thread to read. This inflation is not "transitory" and it's going to get worse.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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8:55p, 10/3/21


I was watching this earlier with my neighbor. Friedman is neat guy. Probably the best speaker on economic subject in last 50 years, regardless of whether you agree with his ideas or not. Incredible communicator.

One of the most cogent things he says in this video is that when central banks print money, the initial response is that inflation has benefits. Companies' profits are higher, more money circulating, etc. this is what Powell was probably recently alluding to. He outlines that the real jump in prices and the crippling effects of unexpected inflation typically come 1218 months after the money supply increases.

Let's keep in mind that the first round of COVID stimulus was about 18 months ago, and the most recent round of stimulus was now about 6-7 months ago.

So, of course the price of cotton hadn't gone up much by fall 2020. The increased money supply hadn't had a chance to ripple thoroughly through the economy yet.

Folks, I fear we are only beginning to see the effects of this. Additionally, there is an increasingly popular theme that the Feds are tweaking the CPI through some clever adjustments. My guess is actual inflation is probably close to 8-10% or more right now.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 11:20p, 10/3/21
AG
I'd be quite happy if actual inflation is 8 to 10%. I fear that in the next couple years, 8 to 10 will be a drop in the bucket. There is also the supply chain crisis looming. Why the F are 100's of cargo ships at sea, not unloading? The perfect storm is not far away.
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Fightin_Aggie
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 11:52p, 10/3/21
AG
BaylorSpineGuy said:


Folks, I fear we are only beginning to see the effects of this. Additionally, there is an increasingly popular theme that the Feds are tweaking the CPI through some clever adjustments. My guess is actual inflation is probably close to 8-10% or more right now.
If by clever adjustments you mean out right lies and removal of anything that doesn't help what they want then yep
The world needs mean tweets

My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA

Trump 2024
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Philip J Fry
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12:13a, 10/4/21
AG
Quote:
BRIEF-Wes****er Resources Says Delay In Completion Of Definitive Feasibility Study For Co's Coosa Graphite Project Production Facility
BY Reuters
8:08 AM ET 09/21/2021
Sept 21 (Reuters) - Wes****er Resources Inc (WWR):
* WES****ER RESOURCES INC (WWR) - DELAY IN COMPLETION OF DEFINITIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR CO'S COOSA GRAPHITE PROJECT PRODUCTION FACILITY
* WES****ER RESOURCES INC (WWR) - PROVIDES PROGRESS UPDATE ON DEFINITIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY
* WES****ER RESOURCES INC (WWR) - NOW EXPECTS DFS TO BE COMPLETED IN Q4 OF 2021
* WES****ER RESOURCES INC (WWR) - HAS ASKED ITS CONSULTANTS TO EVALUATE INCREASED PRODUCTION OF COATED SPHERICAL PURIFIED GRAPHITE AS PART OF ITS DFS Further company coverage:


Did we discuss this at the time? Should we be concerned that the feasibility study is being delayed?
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PeekingDuck
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12:34a, 10/4/21
AG
Watch the poorer countries and classes first. You'll see it coming. I do think it will get significantly worse. Energy cost is just now starting to hit.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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In reply to Brewmaster • 5:43a, 10/4/21
BREwmaster said:
I'd be quite happy if actual inflation is 8 to 10%. I fear that in the next couple years, 8 to 10 will be a drop in the bucket. There is also the supply chain crisis looming. Why the F are 100's of cargo ships at sea, not unloading? The perfect storm is not far away.


Yikes….you could be right. We saw like 10-12% in the late 70s and it was a nightmare. I was trying to put a high number that didn't come across as non-sensical. Maybe we're already close to 15%. This is very sad. Lots of folks gonna suffer.

As to the port situation, my guess is it's also an effect of inflation. No one wants to unload the ships at the current wage. Cost of goods going up, but no one can afford them now. Will cut into profits. Predictable effect.
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BaylorSpineGuy
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6:15a, 10/4/21
Let me ask a more practical question then….what should I do with my 401K?

Previously, I had it split with some large and small cap indexes, SPY, REIT's, etc.

Where is the place to hide my money, if indeed we are right? The portfolio only allows for 10% REIT's. Where to put the rest…..corporate bonds, government bonds, SPY, or where?

Asking because I'm sure it's probably gonna contract, and I'm just trying to limit how much it's gonna give back.

Thanks in advance.
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KY-AG 10
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 6:18a, 10/4/21
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Quote:
BRIEF-Wes****er Resources Says Delay In Completion Of Definitive Feasibility Study For Co's Coosa Graphite Project Production Facility
BY Reuters
8:08 AM ET 09/21/2021
Sept 21 (Reuters) - Wes****er Resources Inc (WWR):
* WES****ER RESOURCES INC (WWR) - DELAY IN COMPLETION OF DEFINITIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY FOR CO'S COOSA GRAPHITE PROJECT PRODUCTION FACILITY
* WES****ER RESOURCES INC (WWR) - PROVIDES PROGRESS UPDATE ON DEFINITIVE FEASIBILITY STUDY
* WES****ER RESOURCES INC (WWR) - NOW EXPECTS DFS TO BE COMPLETED IN Q4 OF 2021
* WES****ER RESOURCES INC (WWR) - HAS ASKED ITS CONSULTANTS TO EVALUATE INCREASED PRODUCTION OF COATED SPHERICAL PURIFIED GRAPHITE AS PART OF ITS DFS Further company coverage:


Did we discuss this at the time? Should we be concerned that the feasibility study is being delayed?
Briefly discussed yes. Definitely some PR spin mixed with the delay. They've added new customers to the list of sign offs they're looking for which is good, but delaying their results.
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KY-AG 10
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6:25a, 10/4/21
AG
Not as polished as FJ

World markets mixed
US Futures red
Blue Chips pre market - red (Except TSLA following increased Q3 production report)
VIX just south of 23

Evergrande (And others) trading suspended is the suspected cause of the turbulence this morning

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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:14a, 10/4/21
AG
Leave your 401K alone. It's long term money. The market will be higher than it is today in 20 years.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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austinAG90
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7:20a, 10/4/21
AG
Monday Macros

Volatility Overnight...Risk Off... Treasury Bear Steepening...Powell? Evergrande

There was lots of volatility in the overnight trading...US equity futures rallied early to be met by negative headlines after Evergrande was suspended trading in Hong Kong... US equity futures went from up 20 at 9 PM to down 30 by 3.30 am... They have made a bounce since New York has started to drift in, but still down about 17 currently... Treasuries are trading differently ,less a FTQ and more negatively... They started the overnight at 1.45 and have risen steadily in yields to 1.49. The yield curve continues to steepen out as fears of a default continue to grind higher... Of course the US won't default but that has not stopped US Sovereign CDS to spike 80% in the last month from 10 to 17.94... And caused Fitch to warn about a possible downgrade... This headlines historically cause the short end to do better and the long end to due worse, hence , a steepening.. The 5/30 curve is 112, well beyond the recent range of 94 to 108...

Here are this weeks issues for volatility...

1) US CDS has spiked on threats of default...
2) Fitch has threatened a downgrade to US treasury debt
3) Inflation and supply chain spikes continue...DHL raises prices 5.9%
4) Fed tapering continues to make it way through market pricing
5) The Powell reappointment looks increasingly less likely with Barron's doing a piece " Why Powell Could be Out at the Fed and What it Means for Markets"
6) Employment Number at the end of the week... Consensus at 470,000... We see two credible sources at 700 (MS) and BI at 750,000... We clearly take the over...
7) Evergrande being suspended by HK this morning on the announcement that Hopson ( another Chinese Billionaire) is taking a major asset of the company

We expect major volatility this week as the first week of October is generally risk off... And we see no reason to change that view for this week... Treasuries should be in a range of 1.42 to 1.56... But the key levels are a bit wider... 10 years has major resistance at 1.38... And mild support at 1.60... We don't see the latter to be challenged until the employment report, assuming we are correct about a much higher number than expectation... But there will also be some yield curve heroics... As the default gets closer expect the curve to get steeper... Again, we expect Congress to come to their senses about some "kick the can down the road "...
Inflation and supply chains continue to plague corporations.. Clearly they are able to push through price increases. And we hope the new Merck drug will alleviate supply chains in the future, but for now it looks awful... And expect housing and rent costs to make its way through PCE to force the Fed to taper quickly and raise rates sooner than expected.

The Fed... The longer Biden waits to reappoint Powell the more it looks like Biden will appoint someone else... And with Rosengren and Kaplan resigning last week, the credibility of the Fed has been questioned... Now we see over the weekend that Clarida moved money out of a bond fund into equities right before the key speech of Powell back in March of 2020... We don't think Clarida did anything wrong, but the constant leak of Fed Governor trading looks like a strategy of forcing Biden to appoint someone else to the Fed... Even if Biden appoints the dovish of the doves, the Fed will be tapering next month and raising rates in the near future, but the uncertainty of a new name will be difficult for markets to trust...

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Brian Earl Spilner
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7:28a, 10/4/21
AG
ROKU upgraded to Hold (C) on Schwab.
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FTAG 2000
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:05a, 10/4/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Leave your 401K alone. It's long term money. The market will be higher than it is today in 20 years.
Where I'm stuck on this is where to leave the money alone with.

Not day trading it or anything but what's the best basket of stocks to invest for the long term?

Time to pile into the dividend aristocrats?
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Brian Earl Spilner
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 8:10a, 10/4/21
AG
SPY/VOO, SCHB, and SCHD

Can't go wrong with those.
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gig em 02
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In reply to BaylorSpineGuy • 8:12a, 10/4/21
BaylorSpineGuy said:
BREwmaster said:
I'd be quite happy if actual inflation is 8 to 10%. I fear that in the next couple years, 8 to 10 will be a drop in the bucket. There is also the supply chain crisis looming. Why the F are 100's of cargo ships at sea, not unloading? The perfect storm is not far away.


Yikes….you could be right. We saw like 10-12% in the late 70s and it was a nightmare. I was trying to put a high number that didn't come across as non-sensical. Maybe we're already close to 15%. This is very sad. Lots of folks gonna suffer.

As to the port situation, my guess is it's also an effect of inflation. No one wants to unload the ships at the current wage. Cost of goods going up, but no one can afford them now. Will cut into profits. Predictable effect.
DHL raised shipping rates 6% and SNAP has been increased by 25%. I think a lot of us will be dialing back our spending significantly in the next couple months.
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Ornithopter
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In reply to gig em 02 • 8:15a, 10/4/21
AG
gig em 02 said:
BaylorSpineGuy said:
BREwmaster said:
I'd be quite happy if actual inflation is 8 to 10%. I fear that in the next couple years, 8 to 10 will be a drop in the bucket. There is also the supply chain crisis looming. Why the F are 100's of cargo ships at sea, not unloading? The perfect storm is not far away.


Yikes….you could be right. We saw like 10-12% in the late 70s and it was a nightmare. I was trying to put a high number that didn't come across as non-sensical. Maybe we're already close to 15%. This is very sad. Lots of folks gonna suffer.

As to the port situation, my guess is it's also an effect of inflation. No one wants to unload the ships at the current wage. Cost of goods going up, but no one can afford them now. Will cut into profits. Predictable effect.
DHL raised shipping rates 6% and SNAP has been increased by 25%. I think a lot of us will be dialing back our spending significantly in the next couple months.


Some of the issue is Covid protocols + Union Workers (and a desire by the union not to use nom-union to meet the labor gap) limiting capacity. Union rules could be suspended by Biden, but that isn't happening
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deadbq03
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:15a, 10/4/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Leave your 401K alone. It's long term money. The market will be higher than it is today in 20 years.
I respectfully disagree. Just because you pull out for a season doesn't mean you're pulling out forever.

Maybe I just got lucky, but I've only pulled my money out once ever, and that was in early March 2020 when both technicals and the news cycle were screaming for pain.

It was only a slightly positive move for me financially, because I was cautious getting back in, but psychologically it was 100% worth it.

That said, right now I'm keeping my money in.
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FTAG 2000
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8:25a, 10/4/21
AG
I read this weekend that the Port of Los Angeles has one crane running out of three. It's for no other reason than union bull*****

And Biden's happy to bend the knee to those asshats.

The head of the longshoreman union actually told the LA Times he thought they could work something out if they met with the head of the Fed. Nothing but empty and open extortion. I'm actually surprised that Comrade Biden hasn't caved on that Fed meeting request and thrown them $100 an hour or something comical.
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McInnis 03
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8:32a, 10/4/21
AG

***If this post is on Business and Investing, take it with a grain of salt. I am wrong way more than I am right (but I am less wrong than I used to be) and if you follow me you will be too.***

B&I Key:
ETH - Extended Trading Hours --- RTH - Regular Trading Hours
ORH - Opening Range (1st 30min) High --- ORL - Opening Range Low
R1, R2, R3 - Resistance 1, 2, or 3 --- S1, S2, S3 - Support 1, 2 or 3
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