wanderer said:

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mazag08 said:

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Am I seeing that right?

66M one minute volume at the close for PLTR?

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Yah I'm seeing 66.6M on the minute right after close.

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Where are yall seeing this? I am seeing 1.25M on ATP and IBKR

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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The news out of Israel I saw was that COVID numbers going crazy despite 80% vaxxed. Not specifically Moderna news, but definitely the kinda news to put a hole in their balloon.

So is the move then for SPY puts again next week? I had some delicious puts I got faked out of early this week and got my head spinning. Otherwise I would've made out like a bandit this week. Oh well….so we're still bears here?

Maybe I can get a Sic 'Em from all of you. :-))

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I'm playing both sides, short dated puts incase we have another week of pain and longer dated calls because I think we return to ATHs after this countertrend move. Next week could go either way with FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. I'm sure we'll see lots of taper talk.

TOS & Yahoo finance are showing it

The put volume for SPY/SPX next week is pretty large. Max pain for SPY is 446. Is this one of those times where everyone knows that we're going to have a pullback next week so we don't?

I'm still busy trying to convince people the financial markets are distressed. Between

Now there is a H&S after the double top on XLF.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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The news out of Israel I saw was that COVID numbers going crazy despite 80% vaxxed. Not specifically Moderna news, but definitely the kinda news to put a hole in their balloon.

So is the move then for SPY puts again next week? I had some delicious puts I got faked out of early this week and got my head spinning. Otherwise I would've made out like a bandit this week. Oh well….so we're still bears here?

Maybe I can get a Sic 'Em from all of you. :-))

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Where are you getting this info? New cases and deaths appear to be flat over the last month.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Isreal+COVID+death+chart&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS857US857&oq=Isreal+COVID+death+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i10j0i390l4.8784j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

CrazyRichAggie said:

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wanderer said:

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mazag08 said:

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Am I seeing that right?

66M one minute volume at the close for PLTR?

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Yah I'm seeing 66.6M on the minute right after close.

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Where are yall seeing this? I am seeing 1.25M on ATP and IBKR

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yep, and my little free app shows it, right at the close.

PearlJammin said:

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BaylorSpineGuy said:

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The news out of Israel I saw was that COVID numbers going crazy despite 80% vaxxed. Not specifically Moderna news, but definitely the kinda news to put a hole in their balloon.

So is the move then for SPY puts again next week? I had some delicious puts I got faked out of early this week and got my head spinning. Otherwise I would've made out like a bandit this week. Oh well….so we're still bears here?

Maybe I can get a Sic 'Em from all of you. :-))

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Where are you getting this info? New cases and deaths appear to be flat over the last month.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Isreal+COVID+death+chart&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS857US857&oq=Isreal+COVID+death+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i10j0i390l4.8784j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

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Flat over the last month... after it spiked in August? (Despite them having one of the highest vaccination rate before that.)

Convenient that you linked to deaths only.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Israel+COVID+cases&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS857US857&ei=Jx5FYfvENr-jqtsPiMKduAU&oq=Israel+COVID+cases&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyDggAEIAEELEDEIMBEMkDMgsIABCABBCxAxCDATILCAAQgAQQsQMQgwEyBQgAEIAEMgsIABCABBCxAxCDATIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEOgcIABBHELADOgkIABDJAxAWEB46BggAEBYQHjoFCAAQhgM6BQgAEJECOgsIABCxAxCDARCRAjoICAAQgAQQsQM6CAgAELEDEIMBSgQIQRgAULKrDliPwA5g58AOaAJwA3gDgAGQBIgBnw-SAQs3LjIuMS4xLjAuMZgBAKABAcgBCMABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz&ved=0ahUKEwi79JC7jofzAhW_kWoFHQhhB1cQ4dUDCA8&uact=5

Blows my mind how many people will misuse/misread data and charts or manipulate them to support their case, when in reality the data proves the opposite. Can shoot holes through every article from every MSM network also.

Quote:

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Convenient that you linked to deaths only.

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What are you insinuating here? I'm not following.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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The news out of Israel I saw was that COVID numbers going crazy despite 80% vaxxed. Not specifically Moderna news, but definitely the kinda news to put a hole in their balloon.

So is the move then for SPY puts again next week? I had some delicious puts I got faked out of early this week and got my head spinning. Otherwise I would've made out like a bandit this week. Oh well….so we're still bears here?

Maybe I can get a Sic 'Em from all of you. :-))

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Well 80% isn't the real number. 61.5% fully vaccinated is.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-ministry-chief-says-coronavirus-spread-reaching-record-heights/

This came straight off the drudge.

The market has moved down a lot over the last two weeks. Remember that these things don't happen in a straight line. We have closed on the 55 before and the next day was a major up day in all scenarios.

Day after OPEX results:

• August 21 - up day with move to ATH
• July 21 - Down day followed by 5 up days to new ATH
• June 21 - Up day followed by ~8 up days to new ATH
• May 21 - Up day
• April 21 - Down day with chop for 3 days before resuming trend
• March 21 - Up day, then several down days before bottoming on the 55 intraday on the 4th day
• February 21 - two down days, followed by a big up day, then chop until finally bottoming on the ~89 before a power reversal
• January 21 - Up day
• December 20 - Down day
• November 20 - Up day
• October 20 - Down day, followed by the biggest drip since since March 2020
• September 20 - Down day, up day, big down day, then 3 power up days
• August 20 - Up day

Here are the last couple of Septembers:

• September 21 - TBD
• September 20 - Down day, took 9 trading days to close above OPEX day high
• September 19. - Up day then major chop

Cookiemonster64 said:

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30k, you're making me feel good about my decision making. Sold next week's $45P. Unless SAVA decides to crater, doesn't look like I'll get assigned on those $46P this week.

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let's hope it stays that way. I have decided premium selling is the way to go on this one for now.

Tomas Hermensa said:

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The put volume for SPY/SPX next week is pretty large. Max pain for SPY is 446. Is this one of those times where everyone knows that we're going to have a pullback next week so we don't?

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Wondering the same thing.

This is usually a fade signal.

i cannot believe how nasty this market is

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) September 17, 2021

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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This is usually a fade signal.

i cannot believe how nasty this market is

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) September 17, 2021

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That's what I thought as well, "deploy everything long!!!"

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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This is usually a fade signal.

i cannot believe how nasty this market is

— Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) September 17, 2021

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Haha, yes this, 110% this, fade the Cramer.



a bounce and chop, followed by more pain in October with jive with seasonality I think:

I generally am inclined to do the opposite of that bald moron, but I noticed a couple things tonight. Obviously today was a very red day. But, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, DJIA, SPX, and others all had 1-3x of their normal volume.

Was this a day of distribution? Was this institutional money unloading? I'm still new at this, and yeah, things may pop next week, but this is looking bad.

From my eyeballing it on my phone, it looks like the DJIA broke its trend line now and today was a 2x volume day. I know it was quad witching week but something that raised my eye.

We lost support yesterday. Next major support is in the 4360-4365 range.

Quote:

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Convenient that you linked to deaths only.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Israel+COVID+cases&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS857US857&ei=Jx5FYfvENr-jqtsPiMKduAU&oq=Israel+COVID+cases&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyDggAEIAEELEDEIMBEMkDMgsIABCABBCxAxCDATILCAAQgAQQsQMQgwEyBQgAEIAEMgsIABCABBCxAxCDATIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEOgcIABBHELADOgkIABDJAxAWEB46BggAEBYQHjoFCAAQhgM6BQgAEJECOgsIABCxAxCDARCRAjoICAAQgAQQsQM6CAgAELEDEIMBSgQIQRgAULKrDliPwA5g58AOaAJwA3gDgAGQBIgBnw-SAQs3LjIuMS4xLjAuMZgBAKABAcgBCMABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz&ved=0ahUKEwi79JC7jofzAhW_kWoFHQhhB1cQ4dUDCA8&uact=5

Blows my mind how many people will misuse/misread data and charts or manipulate them to support their case, when in reality the data proves the opposite. Can shoot holes through every article from every MSM network also.

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Happy now? I'm not seeing a spike in cases over the last 30 days, based on this chart. Click cases. Click last 30 days.

https://www.google.com/search?q=Isreal+COVID+death+chart&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS857US857&oq=Isreal+COVID+death+chart&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i10j0i390l4.8784j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

mazag08 said:

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We lost support yesterday. Next major support is in the 4360-4365 range.

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It's possible. I will deploy long near 4350 if we get there. For me personally, I like to see 2 daily closes below a key level for it to be confirmed.

I'm bored with the game, now.

Here is sort of what I think is going to happen. We could bounce from here (less likely) or we could dip a bit more first and then bounce (highly likely). The third scenario of flat lining here is unlikely, as is the fourth scenario of falling off a cliff (very unlikely). There isn't a catalyst for that.

You will notice that for SPX (cash session only), we are above the 50 EMA, but if you are looking at SPY or /ES, we will be slightly below. SPY closed above the 55 EMA and /ES closed slightly below it. For all intents and purposes, we're around the 50 EMA. For me personally, I like to see two closes below the 50 day before I will consider something to be a trend change.

Most of you trade SPY so I will give those levels. If SPY were going to reverse from exactly here, model T is $447.40 or so. The 8 and 21 are below that at 446.25 area

• 23.6 --> 444.03
• 38.2 --> 445.89
• 61.8 --> 448.91
• 78.6 --> 351.05
• 100 --> 453.79

I would be very surprised to see new ATH this week, but I do think 444 or 445 is realistic. I think points are there if you trade with the trend, both ways. Just don't get caught trying to short in the hole.

Going back to SPX. There is solid support at the 4400 area, 4382 area, and major support just below 4370. The 75 SMA is about 4380 as well. the 89 EMA and 100 SMA are well below and I don't think we'll touch those linearly from here.

Twitter is bearish leaning. Remember that when bears do something, they overdo it because they can't help themselves. Don't be surprised for Monday to open down, have some capitulation selling, and then rip.

literally everyone in the universe has seen this wedge pattern of the last year and there are many prognostications of doom from this breaking out of the wedge for one trading day. This truly may be the start of major selling, but I don't think it's because it broke this wedge. That said, how did everyone think this was going to end? It can only break to the upside with a parabolic move and the wedge would end regardless due to time around the end of November. Sideways trading from the ATH through October would have broken this wedge as well. If the wedge is the actual trend line for the market, it will backtest before major further downside.

I'm also going to post some alternatives.

This is intentionally busy. Blue lines are the 2019 to early 2020 channel post taper tantrum. Purple line is an alternative bottom line to the wedge. My point is that these things can be bull shiat or conveniently drawn for any purpose. support and resistance matters a lot more.

but lest you get too bullish. don't forget where this is on a monthly basis.

Monday will be interesting, spot gamma guys have no idea, think we bounce but if we start futures weak, we sell off. Spy wise, 436 seems like a decent spot for reversal, but seems too obvious.

BaylorSpineGuy said:

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I generally am inclined to do the opposite of that bald moron, but I noticed a couple things tonight. Obviously today was a very red day. But, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, DJIA, SPX, and others all had 1-3x of their normal volume.

Was this a day of distribution? Was this institutional money unloading? I'm still new at this, and yeah, things may pop next week, but this is looking bad.

From my eyeballing it on my phone, it looks like the DJIA broke its trend line now and today was a 2x volume day. I know it was quad witching week but something that raised my eye.

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MOC on Friday was 5B to the buy side, but rebalancing n/m (see post below mine)...

MOC is meaningless on end of quarter rebalancing. You also will see massive darkpool prints on Friday.

$30,000 Millionaire said:

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literally everyone in the universe has seen this wedge pattern of the last year and there are many prognostications of doom from this breaking out of the wedge for one trading day. This truly may be the start of major selling, but I don't think it's because it broke this wedge. That said, how did everyone think this was going to end? It can only break to the upside with a parabolic move and the wedge would end regardless due to time around the end of November. Sideways trading from the ATH through October would have broken this wedge as well. If the wedge is the actual trend line for the market, it will backtest before major further downside.

I'm also going to post some alternatives.

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IIRC (sitting down watching football) the trend line is pretty close to the 50 EMA. I think we're going to see it ride this trend as resistance for a few days to a couple of weeks then see it break down another 2-4%.

That monthly trend is alarming but really just reinforces the absurdity of the current pace of money printing. It's all flowing into the market because it's the only place to get a return. This can only end one way and that chart makes it clear the market is very nearly out of steam.

Anyway you could do a SPY chart of resistance levels to the downside?

I am curious how to identify them.