Damm, all my stonks are really flat today.
Stock Markets
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Last: 2 hrs ago by FishrCoAg
gougler08
Joined:
Feb 24, 2005
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38,598
How long do you want to ignore this user?
/NQ - hanging out over +2 ATR on the daily and right on +3 on the weekly. The last time NQ had a weekly close over +3 ATR was the week of 08/24 in 2020. The next week, it spiked cleanly over +3 and then sold off for three weeks to go back to the weekly mean.
I tend to think this week will be bullish with a buy the dip opportunity. Have one foot by the exit, though.
I tend to think this week will be bullish with a buy the dip opportunity. Have one foot by the exit, though.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
/ES - right under +2 ATR on the daily and just under +3 ATR on the weekly. It can hang out here for a while, but like it always does, it will revert to the mean and seasonality also suggests that will happen.
On a weekly basis, ES_F has not touched or gone above +3 ATR since February of 2020!
On an RSI basis, the weekly chart is screaming "sell". I tend to think we touch 4600 (+3 on both daily and weekly) before we revert. I wouldn't load up long here on indexes. They may go higher, but the probability isn't with you. The current rally is definitely long in the tooth. Momentum is still bullish though, and like I've painfully learned this year, just because something should happen, doesn't mean it will. Trade the price action in front of you, just be aware of where we sit on an overall basis.
You will see people on Twitter like Tic or Don't Fade Me talking about 4517 as being a level of utmost importance. Well, that's the daily 8 EMA. There are pretty good odds we test it this week, if not by tomorrow AM. They're right that it needs to hold.
On a weekly basis, ES_F has not touched or gone above +3 ATR since February of 2020!
On an RSI basis, the weekly chart is screaming "sell". I tend to think we touch 4600 (+3 on both daily and weekly) before we revert. I wouldn't load up long here on indexes. They may go higher, but the probability isn't with you. The current rally is definitely long in the tooth. Momentum is still bullish though, and like I've painfully learned this year, just because something should happen, doesn't mean it will. Trade the price action in front of you, just be aware of where we sit on an overall basis.
You will see people on Twitter like Tic or Don't Fade Me talking about 4517 as being a level of utmost importance. Well, that's the daily 8 EMA. There are pretty good odds we test it this week, if not by tomorrow AM. They're right that it needs to hold.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I don't trade the Dow (DIA is the ETF and /YM is the futures) very often, but this has consolidated for a long time and has built up a lot of energy. I don't know which way this is going to break, but if I had to call it one way, I would assume up unless proven otherwise. The move will be explosive when it happens, though.
Look for it to clear current ATH as a safe place to take a long and look for loss of 21 as clear point to take short. Given the EMAs are stacked so tightly, this is the right approach.
Look for it to clear current ATH as a safe place to take a long and look for loss of 21 as clear point to take short. Given the EMAs are stacked so tightly, this is the right approach.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Russell (IWM or /RTY) looks really good. Any push towards 4600+ will require small caps to participate with it.
If you're trading IWM, price action over $230 is bullish. 2313 on futures.
If you're trading IWM, price action over $230 is bullish. 2313 on futures.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$TSLA - I should have bought on Friday, but I didn't. As long as this doesn't majorly gap up, I will look to enter tomorrow, likely with CDS 2-3 weeks out. If this clears 742, there isn't much until 780. I'd love to get on an 8 EMA touch, but I have a feeling that's unlikely.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$BBIG - solid bounce off the 8 EMA. Let's see if this thing can get some acceleration this week.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$BGFV - possible that shorts get destroyed. Short interest is 75%
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$SQ - one of my favorite setups. Easy to play too. Go out to October, buy $280C. HODL if this clears 275, cut at close below 265.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$SHOP - this mofo has snake bitten me a couple of times recently, especially when it threatened to break out. I left that on here for your perusal. If this clears 1590, it will not be stopped. Honestly, probably pretty safe to enter here. Cut below close of 1530. I think OTM call debit spreads are the best way to play this so you don't lose your ass in this super volatile stock. Based on Friday's prices, a $1600/1700 is going to cost you about $1,800 per contract. Max profit $8,200. You can get out gracefully I like those odds. An at the money put credit spread is also a good way to play. The 1530/1520 would get you $4 in credit. I think I favor taking the upside gamble, though.
Don't be stupid though. You need to watch NQ/NDX/QQQ. If the macros puke, everything is selling.
Don't be stupid though. You need to watch NQ/NDX/QQQ. If the macros puke, everything is selling.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I like $RRC as a short.
Has to fail up here though.
Has to fail up here though.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$TSM looks interesting but I don't know how to play it.
General comment - most setups are kind of extended right now.
General comment - most setups are kind of extended right now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Last thing - I will nuclear short $ASAN if it gets to $102 in the near-term.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
If there is anything you guys really want to see, I'll try to do a few more later. For now, you are between me and the pool.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
AMD. Your charts are so pretty
A favor to ask - is anyone aware of a great scanner for short interest? I'm not sure if you can do it in TOS
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
CrazyRichAggie said:
AMD. Your charts are so pretty
Needs over $112 for higher.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I have perused this website. Gives % short of float, etc.
https://www.highshortinterest.com/
Not sure if this is what you're looking for tho.
https://www.highshortinterest.com/
Not sure if this is what you're looking for tho.
cageybee77 said:
Damm, all my stonks are really flat today.
I actually went and checked my account. I hate you
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Last thing - I will nuclear short $ASAN if it gets to $102 in the near-term.
Was thinking along the same lines....Happy that I switched to 9/17 $75 calls and went totally positive on name. See how it responds early tomorrow but puts will be in my future....
Anyone follow LLY?
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/lilly-eczema-lebrikizumab-dermira-dupixent/605059/
My wife has severe adult eczema. She's been on dupixent before, and while it cleared her eczema, the side effects of watery and itchy eyes were unbearable.
Hoping Lilly comes through with this one.
https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/lilly-eczema-lebrikizumab-dermira-dupixent/605059/
My wife has severe adult eczema. She's been on dupixent before, and while it cleared her eczema, the side effects of watery and itchy eyes were unbearable.
Hoping Lilly comes through with this one.
Happy Labor Day, all. Let's hit the ground running tomorrow. 
Is that a gummy bear rub? Looks delicious.
I just did my first ever smoked brisket today. Turned out well and the Mrs. gonna let me stay in the house tonight so pleased for that.
As an aside, I'm buying puts immediately OTM with expiry in late October/early November on ALLY and SYF tomorrow.
I am convinced there is about to be a big problem with these non prime lender providers. My office manager's husband is a used car salesman and he says 30-40% of people driving off the lot have bad credit. He's gonna clear $200K this year (and he's only been doing this for about 6-8 months). He's selling like crazy.
My neighbor is a part time realtor, and she's on pace to clear $10M in home sales this year. Again, this has been a hobby of hers until these last 6-8 months.
With the moratorium expiration and drop out of COVID stimulus, I have a bad feeling. SYF and ALLY are already starting to show it on the chart. And the SYF executives sold a ton of shares last week. None of the credit card companies or the above banks have any executive or insider purchases of stock any time in the last year.
I just did my first ever smoked brisket today. Turned out well and the Mrs. gonna let me stay in the house tonight so pleased for that.
As an aside, I'm buying puts immediately OTM with expiry in late October/early November on ALLY and SYF tomorrow.
I am convinced there is about to be a big problem with these non prime lender providers. My office manager's husband is a used car salesman and he says 30-40% of people driving off the lot have bad credit. He's gonna clear $200K this year (and he's only been doing this for about 6-8 months). He's selling like crazy.
My neighbor is a part time realtor, and she's on pace to clear $10M in home sales this year. Again, this has been a hobby of hers until these last 6-8 months.
With the moratorium expiration and drop out of COVID stimulus, I have a bad feeling. SYF and ALLY are already starting to show it on the chart. And the SYF executives sold a ton of shares last week. None of the credit card companies or the above banks have any executive or insider purchases of stock any time in the last year.
What's a gummy bear rub?!
There are gummy bears at the edge of the counter right above the brisket. Next to LINKS beef jerky. Lol
Thanks for doing all of this 30K. Really appreciate everything you contribute to this group.$30,000 Millionaire said:
If there is anything you guys really want to see, I'll try to do a few more later. For now, you are between me and the pool.
Haha I was googling it for a few minutes. Rubby bears!
Those may or may not be my secret.
$TSLA does look good. I played it Friday when it touched the bottom of the box but decided to take profits at close since it was a long weekend. I have the top of the box around $740.76 with a high of $742 that needs to get taken out like you mentioned for a move up, and bottom of box around $726.45. I would like to get a bottom box bounce again before going long, and use $721.86 as my stop. $731 has been a strong support level within the box as well.$30,000 Millionaire said:
$TSLA - I should have bought on Friday, but I didn't. As long as this doesn't majorly gap up, I will look to enter tomorrow, likely with CDS 2-3 weeks out. If this clears 742, there isn't much until 780. I'd love to get on an 8 EMA touch, but I have a feeling that's unlikely.
Edit: Firing off a weekly squeeze too.
Interesting thing I have noticed is that $QQQ is firing off a daily squeeze. I haven't seen too many daily squeezes on indices before. I have mine showing it fired off on 8/25 and hasn't shown negative momentum since firing. Something I am watching to see if we keep running up and look to exit positions and/or short extended high-beta names once the negative momentum shows up.
Edit to add that QQQ has been wedging several days. I show 380.39 as a strong level within the wedge. Top of wedge is 9/1 highs and bottom of wedge is 8/31 lows.
Edit to add that QQQ has been wedging several days. I show 380.39 as a strong level within the wedge. Top of wedge is 9/1 highs and bottom of wedge is 8/31 lows.
Really gives new meaning to the term "meat candy".
Morning!
A new week and a new start!
A bit mixed markets.
EU is red across the board, Asia green and US flat....ish.
China stock day based on the green in Asia.
Pay attention to VIX...its up 5%
FWIW SKEW shot up to 162+ on Friday.
Lately for me each time I make a move in this game of financial chess.....
Trade wisely!
A new week and a new start!
A bit mixed markets.
EU is red across the board, Asia green and US flat....ish.
China stock day based on the green in Asia.
Pay attention to VIX...its up 5%
FWIW SKEW shot up to 162+ on Friday.
Lately for me each time I make a move in this game of financial chess.....
Trade wisely!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Morning FJ! Just wanted to say thanks for this each morning, saves me a trip to look at futures and get a good gif as well, hope you (and everyone else) had a good Labor Day weekend
SAVA testing $45 premarket
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