So aren't the profits of credit and debit spreads limited by the difference in size of the premiums? Seems less risky, for certain, but can't make that much on one trade -seems would require high volume.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Yes credit spreads are. If volatility is higher, your premiums will be higher and credit spreads tend to look attractive. If volatility is lower, then you can simply buy puts.
On the credit spreads if you go in the money a bit on the lower call, that ups the premium pretty substantially. That also ups your risk because the stock price has to move down, not just stay flat, for you to profit.
On the credit spreads if you go in the money a bit on the lower call, that ups the premium pretty substantially. That also ups your risk because the stock price has to move down, not just stay flat, for you to profit.
Moving to ITM on the short option, decreases the probability of success of the trade working (as you said the underlying has to move further for your trade to work), but the risk in dollar value of the trade is actually lower (for the same spread width construction).
The other thing to check is the premium on the spread. Say you want to risk ~$5, usually the r/r is better if you have 2 contracts at 2.5 spread vs 1 contract at 5.0 spread
The other thing to check is the premium on the spread. Say you want to risk ~$5, usually the r/r is better if you have 2 contracts at 2.5 spread vs 1 contract at 5.0 spread
I was poking around the AAPL option chain and noticed that Jan '23 $75c is selling for $83, $80c for $78.50, $85c for $73.50. All basically an implied ticker price of $158.50. That's only $~3.50 worth of IV built into the calls over the next 18mo. I realize it's ITM, but why/how is there such little IV built into these leaps?
Why would anyone sell these ITM calls for such low IV? With the ticker currently at $155 you're only getting $3.50 over the next 18mo? (I realize you could buy them back at any time) I feel like I'm missing something.
This may be the same case for a lot of deep ITM leaps, I had just noticed it for AAPL.
Why would anyone sell these ITM calls for such low IV? With the ticker currently at $155 you're only getting $3.50 over the next 18mo? (I realize you could buy them back at any time) I feel like I'm missing something.
This may be the same case for a lot of deep ITM leaps, I had just noticed it for AAPL.
Thanks for your input!
To give more credence to a downtrend, Synchrony Financial had like 5 executives sell more than $1M each worth of stock in the last 3 days. Their company's chart is just now about to complete a double top, and volume suggests the new trend could be down (higher volume days on down, lower volume on recent advances).
This company is allied with other financial services and credit institutions and also PayPal.
To give more credence to a downtrend, Synchrony Financial had like 5 executives sell more than $1M each worth of stock in the last 3 days. Their company's chart is just now about to complete a double top, and volume suggests the new trend could be down (higher volume days on down, lower volume on recent advances).
This company is allied with other financial services and credit institutions and also PayPal.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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If you think there is a correction coming you could sell the LEAPS, pocket the $80 now and hope to buy them back when the price is much lower. You could also find people that sold these and bought shorter term ATM calls or OTM leaps with this premium.
Footage from Texas A&M midnight yell last night is pure insanity. Aggies by 90. pic.twitter.com/SotgxMJ7az
— Josh Pate (@LateKickJosh) September 4, 2021
Just imagine what it'll be like for Bama.
SOUND ON
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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How creepyoldguy does it make me for pointing out blue top all-star at the end there?
Both teams take care of business and it will be the best Kyle field atmosphere EVER!
Yep, if we're both undefeated then College Gameday will be here and it'll be a prime time night game.CrazyRichAggie said:
Both teams take care of business and it will be the best Kyle field atmosphere EVER!
Best of all, it will take most of the attention off the RRR that kicks off at 11 am.
Prognightmare said:Footage from Texas A&M midnight yell last night is pure insanity. Aggies by 90. pic.twitter.com/SotgxMJ7az
— Josh Pate (@LateKickJosh) September 4, 2021
Just imagine what it'll be like for Bama.
SOUND ON
gives me goosebumps every time!
From @katie_martin_fx’s @FT article contrasting market bears throwing in the towel with increasing regulatory concerns about elevated asset prices, I including in the recent report by Esma, the European securities and Markets authority).
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#economy #markets #stocks #investing pic.twitter.com/QyP17OV7li
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Same
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Treinta Mil Oso regresso!
Tomas Hermensa said:
Treinta Mil Oso regresso!
Es tiempo por los osos. Derrumbe ahora!
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Muestrame el dinero - Jerry Maguire
I called it here first, btw! :-)
I called it here first, btw! :-)
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Stonks zhihui shang!
Mazag, wanted to compare notes with what you are seeing on your EW analysis of $GILD. I'll start with Monthly then Weekly, Daily, and 4-hr charts.
Monthly - Major flagging going back to 2014. If I use the June 2010 low and the May 2015 high, the 50% retracement is $69.57 where its been ping-ponging around since May of 2017. The top of the wedge channel looks to be around $76 at this time. I could see this next run-up touching the top wedge trendline. GILD still hasn't even made its long-term move out of this monthly flag. Once it does, it's heading back to the upper 80's. Look at the run it made after breaking out of its last flag in 2012.
Weekly - For resistance levels I have $72.83 (~$73), $76.21, $78.87, and $84.71. Strong support at $70.16 (~$70). GILD fired off its weekly squeeze this past week, let's see if it holds or was a false-fire. The weekly had been squeezing since May of this year. It's been grinding up in the yellow channels so far this year with tests of the other trendlines shown. Currently GILD has been backtesting the rising trendline connecting the September 2020, January 2021, and May 2021 highs. Once it clears $73, I don't see any major resistance until it tags the wedge trendline around $76.
Daily - For the daily, GILD looks like its been wedging since the highs on 8/18/21. Looks super bullish, as it made the big run from 8/10/21, put in a high above major $70 resistance, and has been wedging since getting ready for it's next move. I don't want to make predications, but the pink lines are what I could anticipate it doing, with next move up to $74.45 level followed by $72.25 backtest then tagging the trendline around $76.
4-Hour - Shows the current wedges pretty good on this chart.
It's been pretty much textbook so far. I'm still in my September $70 net free calls, have some $75 rollup calls, and also the October $75c. Once it breaks the monthly flag pattern, whenever that happens, I'll go aggressive again maybe with LEAPS.
Appreciate your EW commentary on this name.
Monthly - Major flagging going back to 2014. If I use the June 2010 low and the May 2015 high, the 50% retracement is $69.57 where its been ping-ponging around since May of 2017. The top of the wedge channel looks to be around $76 at this time. I could see this next run-up touching the top wedge trendline. GILD still hasn't even made its long-term move out of this monthly flag. Once it does, it's heading back to the upper 80's. Look at the run it made after breaking out of its last flag in 2012.
Weekly - For resistance levels I have $72.83 (~$73), $76.21, $78.87, and $84.71. Strong support at $70.16 (~$70). GILD fired off its weekly squeeze this past week, let's see if it holds or was a false-fire. The weekly had been squeezing since May of this year. It's been grinding up in the yellow channels so far this year with tests of the other trendlines shown. Currently GILD has been backtesting the rising trendline connecting the September 2020, January 2021, and May 2021 highs. Once it clears $73, I don't see any major resistance until it tags the wedge trendline around $76.
Daily - For the daily, GILD looks like its been wedging since the highs on 8/18/21. Looks super bullish, as it made the big run from 8/10/21, put in a high above major $70 resistance, and has been wedging since getting ready for it's next move. I don't want to make predications, but the pink lines are what I could anticipate it doing, with next move up to $74.45 level followed by $72.25 backtest then tagging the trendline around $76.
4-Hour - Shows the current wedges pretty good on this chart.
It's been pretty much textbook so far. I'm still in my September $70 net free calls, have some $75 rollup calls, and also the October $75c. Once it breaks the monthly flag pattern, whenever that happens, I'll go aggressive again maybe with LEAPS.
Appreciate your EW commentary on this name.
!Tomas Hermensa said:
Treinta Mil Oso regresso!
Cheers and Gig em!
My wife is from Russia. I showed her this video and she fell in love with A&M!Prognightmare said:Footage from Texas A&M midnight yell last night is pure insanity. Aggies by 90. pic.twitter.com/SotgxMJ7az
— Josh Pate (@LateKickJosh) September 4, 2021
Just imagine what it'll be like for Bama.
SOUND ON
Quote:
My wife is from Russia. I showed her this video and she fell in love with A&M!
So I guess your username makes sense.
I need a lot more time than a Sunday morning glance to go through this. Looks to be some really good analysis here. Hopefully between the two of us we can this thing's trajectory.
I have it going to $86 ultimately. So your comment about upper 80's makes me feel good.
Will discuss more tonight after I can dive in.
I have it going to $86 ultimately. So your comment about upper 80's makes me feel good.
Will discuss more tonight after I can dive in.
Can someone better at me in charting (namely, everyone on this board) take a look at the VIX 1 yr chart? Is the pattern a falling wedge? The oscillations are tightening up in a downward trend. Appreciate any help.
Is charting even reliable on a volatility index?
Is charting even reliable on a volatility index?
Not sure I'm any better at charting, but it does look like a falling wedge to me. Also looks like the 50ema has done a good job pressuring it downward.
MACD for 1, 3, and 6Month all show bearish. 5 day looks like the bull run is turning and could be heading back to 16 or so. I may throw some money at it once the 5ema shows signs of reversal.
MACD for 1, 3, and 6Month all show bearish. 5 day looks like the bull run is turning and could be heading back to 16 or so. I may throw some money at it once the 5ema shows signs of reversal.
BaylorSpineGuy said:
Is charting even reliable on a volatility index?
I have not found TA to work on VIX for predicting a volatility spike.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
That's what my guess was. They don't seem to necessarily fall in fixed intervals, and world events, etc., may also play a role. If I can predict weather or terrorist attacks or pandemics, I can make more money than betting on a VIX spike.
I know this is the stock thread, but it is a Sunday after gameday, so what the heck.
Great atmosphere last night. Felt so good to see Aggie football in a packed Kyle Field again.
Great atmosphere last night. Felt so good to see Aggie football in a packed Kyle Field again.
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AG
frankm01 said:
I know this is the stock thread, but it is a Sunday after gameday, so what the heck.
Great atmosphere last night. Felt so good to see Aggie football in a packed Kyle Field again.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CTcvMRpH-i4/?utm_medium=copy_link
Little cowboy cut for Sunday.
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Love it!
$TSLA
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
McInnis - NQ_F went past your number. Want to see what happens when volume returns.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Happy Labor Day...Hope everyone had a great week, I was off the grid in the Grand Teton Mountains and able to grab a great reset button...Was on the grid long enough to finally hit $ASAN Calls....Sure I will continue to play that name.....
Labor Day...US Equity Futures Risk On... Treasury Futures Lower
European equities are up 1% while S+P futures are at a new record, up over 12, at 4546... US treasury futures are lower across the board continuing a bear steepening which started on Friday. The weekend press ,and our own thoughts, have now pushed tapering out past September... We do not see any catalyst that would move the Fed to announce tapering on September 22, so we now give that a 10% chance... November 3 becomes more likely at 60%, while December 15 has increased to 30%. November would give the Fed one more employment number to look at, while December would give 3 more employment numbers to look at... But it is unusual for the Fed to make a move right before the holidays... More to come... But have a nice rest of the holiday day...
Labor Day...US Equity Futures Risk On... Treasury Futures Lower
European equities are up 1% while S+P futures are at a new record, up over 12, at 4546... US treasury futures are lower across the board continuing a bear steepening which started on Friday. The weekend press ,and our own thoughts, have now pushed tapering out past September... We do not see any catalyst that would move the Fed to announce tapering on September 22, so we now give that a 10% chance... November 3 becomes more likely at 60%, while December 15 has increased to 30%. November would give the Fed one more employment number to look at, while December would give 3 more employment numbers to look at... But it is unusual for the Fed to make a move right before the holidays... More to come... But have a nice rest of the holiday day...
spud1910 said:My wife is from Russia. I showed her this video and she fell in love with A&M!Prognightmare said:Footage from Texas A&M midnight yell last night is pure insanity. Aggies by 90. pic.twitter.com/SotgxMJ7az
— Josh Pate (@LateKickJosh) September 4, 2021
Just imagine what it'll be like for Bama.
SOUND ON
From Russia!? Just wait till you show her our beautiful campus architecture!
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