Morning FJ, you're late. I was about to call in a BOLO for ya.
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Last: 40 min ago by agdaddy04
Mostly what you are seeing are names being focused on for lottos that have a few things....bmoochie said:
Is it just me or does it feel like he has the same lotto tickers every week. I feel you do sometimes also. DEFINITELY not a dig or criticism because what you bring is so valuable for mine and others learning curve. I just wonder why that is? What am I not seeing for these tickers to always be in lotto rotation?
- High liquidity - high option volume and open interest activity. If no option volume not worth the time.
- Preferably closer spreads on the bid/ask.
- Current momentum - sideways isn't a good candidate
- Breakouts/downs - at an SR level, trend breaks - up or down
- Pressure - relative strength for upside - weakness for downside
- Day 2 moves - either way
I have a list of about 50 stocks that I skim through every day. O'dark 30 AM, several times mid day and again after close. Then I run scans to find the next 50ish to flip through quickly.
Of that list probably 10-12 I know more intimately their behavior and SR levels almost in my head.
30k's list of 6 are on mine as well and I know he looks at a LOT more than just those 6 on any given day.
As an example SNOW, CRWD, CRM, AAPL, AMC, AMD, NVDA, etc. were plays in the last 48 hours.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
LOL!Prognightmare said:
Morning FJ, you're late. I was about to call in a BOLO for ya.
Morning Prog!
Yes I decided to sleep in an extra 45 minutes today. Instead of 3AM it was a 3:45AM today. Mrs. FJ heads for the gym a a few hours later on Friday's so hate to rustle her too early.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Do you see the time for JP's speech today? I am seeing anything from 12:00EST (10:00MST) to 2:30EST.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Lotto Tips
- Don't go too far OTM on same day expiry.
- Take profits quick - sometimes these are literally minutes others if trend remains you're good.
- Don't be greedy - too often a nice quick trade goes from green to red
- Leave a runner(s)
- Unless ITM theta will crush you from about 12EST on.
Personally I try to be out of all lottos (except runners ITM) by 1:30EST ....ish.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Why do u think futures are up? Is tonight the night? https://t.co/Tgg4rAf4sU pic.twitter.com/vguZ40WL18
— Nick (@NlCKStocks) August 27, 2021
FJ43 said:
Do you see the time for JP's speech today? I am seeing anything from 12:00EST (10:00MST) to 2:30EST.
Nah, IMO it will be benign and a non-event. It wouldn't surprise me if says something to drive the markets higher. After the cluster**** Biden has going on in Afghanistan, there's no way he'd blow up the markets at the same time.
i think every single president wants the market going up
Agree.....Not expecting anything revolutionary form it just want to have charts on 1 Min for the golden V.Prognightmare said:FJ43 said:
Do you see the time for JP's speech today? I am seeing anything from 12:00EST (10:00MST) to 2:30EST.
Nah, IMO it will be benign and a non-event. It wouldn't surprise me if says something to drive the markets higher. After the cluster**** Biden has going on in Afghanistan, there's no way he'd blow up the markets at the same time.
Seems every time he breathes something out we get volatility so just want to take advantage of it.
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Been traveling most of this week....Will be in Jackson Hole next week so might miss a few mornings.......
Friday Macros
Powell Speech Awaited...2 Million Options Expire Today on 10 Years... Markets UP
Today the focal point is the Powell Jackson Hole speech that has been long awaited. We think the markets are going to be disappointed, but there are over 2 million options expiring today on 10 year futures, on a very illiquid hot summer Friday. So whichever way Powell leans, could spark fireworks in the afternoon, before the futures expire.. In rates terms the key levels are where we are right now, which is 1.34 on the 10 year... The other two key levels are 1.50 and 1.22, respectively... Right where support and resistance are... As for the speech today, at least according to the latest BB article on Powell, and BB had the scoop on Yellen supporting Powell last Saturday, Powell will be reappointed and Brainard will replace Quarles, who was not liked by Congress. This gives Powell some breathing room... But the window for tapering is short, and if the Fed wants to buy some optionality for when stimulus ends and the real economy take over, if makes sense to announce tapering at the September meeting... But he can punt to next weeks unemployment number without much risk..
The scenarios, including the expiring options, which will take over after the speech...
SCENARIO 1... DOVISH SPEECH... Many on the Fed recognize that they have to take advantage of what windows the market gives them... And they need to taper at some point... But Powell could easily kick the can down the road... This speech is virtual, and Delta variant is a concern, although many of the Fed governors agree that the economy continues to do well... This could send 10 years down to 1.28 ish... But we do not think it will reach the real resistance of 1.22... Equities will like it as it will mistakenly look to them that the Fed is still supporting asset prices, which we think is a mistake
SCENARIO 2... MODERATE SPEECH... Does not kick the can down the road but verifies that the Fed needs to start tapering by the end of the year... He will make reference to multiple unemployment reports, not just next week... The street will move the tapering announcement to the November meeting to start in January... We think Powell is taking too much of a risk by moving tapering into 2022, where many start their rate hikes... The two need to be delinked as much as possible.... Street will be disappointed, and if the PCE number today comes above 4%, you will start to hear talk of inflation... Real rates are clearly too low...10 years go to 1.38
SCENARIO 3...HAWKISH SPEECH...we view this as unlikely... But Powell could signal the next board meeting as the time the Fed will decide... Especially with a strong employment report one week from today... Funny how important employment reports recently come on short trading days in front of a holiday week..10 years approach 1.42, which is strong support on our charts... But it could spark the 1.50 option enthusiasts to push it further.
Powell has used the Jackson Hole conference to make big announcements . Powell distanced himself from the Phillips Curve in 2018, he hinted at rate cuts in 2019, and last year used his bully pulpit to alter the Fed's inflation framework... So a punt is not likely today... We look for a significant market moving speech, with the potential for a mild kick the can to next Friday...
Other Fed speakers are on the tape all day... So expect many headlines... But in reality, it looks like 1.34 is going to be a strong magnet for the treasury 10 year today... And equities seem to have a mild risk on...
Have a great weekend
Friday Macros
Powell Speech Awaited...2 Million Options Expire Today on 10 Years... Markets UP
Today the focal point is the Powell Jackson Hole speech that has been long awaited. We think the markets are going to be disappointed, but there are over 2 million options expiring today on 10 year futures, on a very illiquid hot summer Friday. So whichever way Powell leans, could spark fireworks in the afternoon, before the futures expire.. In rates terms the key levels are where we are right now, which is 1.34 on the 10 year... The other two key levels are 1.50 and 1.22, respectively... Right where support and resistance are... As for the speech today, at least according to the latest BB article on Powell, and BB had the scoop on Yellen supporting Powell last Saturday, Powell will be reappointed and Brainard will replace Quarles, who was not liked by Congress. This gives Powell some breathing room... But the window for tapering is short, and if the Fed wants to buy some optionality for when stimulus ends and the real economy take over, if makes sense to announce tapering at the September meeting... But he can punt to next weeks unemployment number without much risk..
The scenarios, including the expiring options, which will take over after the speech...
SCENARIO 1... DOVISH SPEECH... Many on the Fed recognize that they have to take advantage of what windows the market gives them... And they need to taper at some point... But Powell could easily kick the can down the road... This speech is virtual, and Delta variant is a concern, although many of the Fed governors agree that the economy continues to do well... This could send 10 years down to 1.28 ish... But we do not think it will reach the real resistance of 1.22... Equities will like it as it will mistakenly look to them that the Fed is still supporting asset prices, which we think is a mistake
SCENARIO 2... MODERATE SPEECH... Does not kick the can down the road but verifies that the Fed needs to start tapering by the end of the year... He will make reference to multiple unemployment reports, not just next week... The street will move the tapering announcement to the November meeting to start in January... We think Powell is taking too much of a risk by moving tapering into 2022, where many start their rate hikes... The two need to be delinked as much as possible.... Street will be disappointed, and if the PCE number today comes above 4%, you will start to hear talk of inflation... Real rates are clearly too low...10 years go to 1.38
SCENARIO 3...HAWKISH SPEECH...we view this as unlikely... But Powell could signal the next board meeting as the time the Fed will decide... Especially with a strong employment report one week from today... Funny how important employment reports recently come on short trading days in front of a holiday week..10 years approach 1.42, which is strong support on our charts... But it could spark the 1.50 option enthusiasts to push it further.
Powell has used the Jackson Hole conference to make big announcements . Powell distanced himself from the Phillips Curve in 2018, he hinted at rate cuts in 2019, and last year used his bully pulpit to alter the Fed's inflation framework... So a punt is not likely today... We look for a significant market moving speech, with the potential for a mild kick the can to next Friday...
Other Fed speakers are on the tape all day... So expect many headlines... But in reality, it looks like 1.34 is going to be a strong magnet for the treasury 10 year today... And equities seem to have a mild risk on...
Have a great weekend
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Posts:
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Thanks! That should make the open and following few hours sporty.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm
This shows 10AM (should be eastern).
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Thanks as always!austinAG90 said:
Been traveling most of this week....Will be in Jackson Hole next week so might miss a few mornings.......
Friday Macros
Powell Speech Awaited...2 Million Options Expire Today on 10 Years... Markets UP
Today the focal point is the Powell Jackson Hole speech that has been long awaited. We think the markets are going to be disappointed, but there are over 2 million options expiring today on 10 year futures, on a very illiquid hot summer Friday. So whichever way Powell leans, could spark fireworks in the afternoon, before the futures expire.. In rates terms the key levels are where we are right now, which is 1.34 on the 10 year... The other two key levels are 1.50 and 1.22, respectively... Right where support and resistance are... As for the speech today, at least according to the latest BB article on Powell, and BB had the scoop on Yellen supporting Powell last Saturday, Powell will be reappointed and Brainard will replace Quarles, who was not liked by Congress. This gives Powell some breathing room... But the window for tapering is short, and if the Fed wants to buy some optionality for when stimulus ends and the real economy take over, if makes sense to announce tapering at the September meeting... But he can punt to next weeks unemployment number without much risk..
The scenarios, including the expiring options, which will take over after the speech...
SCENARIO 1... DOVISH SPEECH... Many on the Fed recognize that they have to take advantage of what windows the market gives them... And they need to taper at some point... But Powell could easily kick the can down the road... This speech is virtual, and Delta variant is a concern, although many of the Fed governors agree that the economy continues to do well... This could send 10 years down to 1.28 ish... But we do not think it will reach the real resistance of 1.22... Equities will like it as it will mistakenly look to them that the Fed is still supporting asset prices, which we think is a mistake
SCENARIO 2... MODERATE SPEECH... Does not kick the can down the road but verifies that the Fed needs to start tapering by the end of the year... He will make reference to multiple unemployment reports, not just next week... The street will move the tapering announcement to the November meeting to start in January... We think Powell is taking too much of a risk by moving tapering into 2022, where many start their rate hikes... The two need to be delinked as much as possible.... Street will be disappointed, and if the PCE number today comes above 4%, you will start to hear talk of inflation... Real rates are clearly too low...10 years go to 1.38
SCENARIO 3...HAWKISH SPEECH...we view this as unlikely... But Powell could signal the next board meeting as the time the Fed will decide... Especially with a strong employment report one week from today... Funny how important employment reports recently come on short trading days in front of a holiday week..10 years approach 1.42, which is strong support on our charts... But it could spark the 1.50 option enthusiasts to push it further.
Powell has used the Jackson Hole conference to make big announcements . Powell distanced himself from the Phillips Curve in 2018, he hinted at rate cuts in 2019, and last year used his bully pulpit to alter the Fed's inflation framework... So a punt is not likely today... We look for a significant market moving speech, with the potential for a mild kick the can to next Friday...
Other Fed speakers are on the tape all day... So expect many headlines... But in reality, it looks like 1.34 is going to be a strong magnet for the treasury 10 year today... And equities seem to have a mild risk on...
Have a great weekend
So...red or black? Where to place my bets!
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Jackson Hole 10am, trapping is possible, trade small as predictability lower. My key #ES_F support yesterday was 4465-75 & held after multiple tests
— Adam Mancini (@AdamMancini4) August 27, 2021
Plan today: My targets are 4511,4530, 4560 if 4465 holds. 4433 fake breakdown lvl if it fails. Below 4433 should start deeper sell https://t.co/d0ZwqPkloR
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
SAVA dropping more PM
Ya think..
HARKER SAYS THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE INFLATIONARY PRESSURES MAY NOT BE SO TRANSITORY
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) August 27, 2021
Wealth gained hastily will dwindle. but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
Proverbs 13:11
Proverbs 13:11
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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Austinag is Adam Mancini?
I looked 10min ago ant it was up over $2cageybee77 said:
SAVA dropping more PM
****tt. 58's now
55's
55's
Man shorts are just hammering it now
maybe a fund or 2 got blown up shorting SPRT and had to dump their SAVA shares to cover
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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My question is - Did SAVA present slides/data at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference (AAIC) in July 2021 that would show/reflect/imply that Quanterix Corporation interpreted the test results or prepare the data charts presented by Cassava? If SAVA did the aforementioned, that would be a problem, but I didn't read that in the linked article.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/quanterix-releases-statement-121900592.html
https://www.yahoo.com/now/quanterix-releases-statement-121900592.html
https://www.cassavasciences.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cassava-sciences-responds-allegationsFarmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
My question is - Did SAVA present slides/data at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference (AAIC) in July 2021 that would show/reflect/imply that Quanterix Corporation interpreted the test results or prepare the data charts presented by Cassava? If SAVA did the aforementioned, that would be a problem, but I didn't read that in the linked article.
https://www.yahoo.com/now/quanterix-releases-statement-121900592.html
Quote:
As a science company, we champion facts that can be evaluated and verified," said Remi Barbier, President & CEO. "This helps people make informed choices. It is important for stakeholders to separate fact from fiction, which is why we wish to address allegations head-on."
Fiction: Biomarker data is generated by Cassava Sciences or its science collaborators and therefore are falsified.
Fact: Cassava Sciences' plasma p-tau data from Alzheimer's patients was generated by Quanterix Corp., an independent company, and presented at the recent Alzheimer's Association International Conference1.
They did in the very first line of their rebuttal 2 days ago. I've left a voicemail and emailed them this morning for clarification.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
NRD09 said:Double_Bagger said:That's a bold move. Let's see how it plays out. I'm rooting for youNRD09 said:
Alright since all y'all are talking about is sava i decided to play. Sold a 70p for tomorrow for 5ish, be happy to get assigned the shares then sell a 125c like mcinnis next week for another $5 then get them called away
So far so good
So maybe i should have taken this is off at half price yesterday but now i am pissed and want the shares. Selling another put at open
SAVA
It feels like this is an orchestrated hit job.
I just wish I had the cojones to buy a big chunk down here but there is always the chance there is real smoke to the forest fire.
It feels like this is an orchestrated hit job.
I just wish I had the cojones to buy a big chunk down here but there is always the chance there is real smoke to the forest fire.
Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
SEC bans shorting (seriously).
Ok in light of what's going on with sava, can anybody tell me how selling shares you don't own or control in order to negatively influence stock price isn't market manipulation?
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Thanks for your reply!
IMO, Quanterix Corp generated the data (rebuttal states this) and SAVA interpreted the results. To me, that's how it reads in the SAVA rebuttal. I don't see a problem with this. I haven't read where SAVA is stating that Quanterix interpreted the data.
To me, Quanterix is a "lab". Yahoo defined it as "a company digitizing biomarker analysis to advance the science of precision health". The lab would not be aware of what the SAVA researchers are looking for, unless shared via confidentiality agreement. Still, SAVA researchers for looking for something specific in the data, Quanterix is the company or tool used to get the data. SAVA would have produced the interpretation, not Quanterix and that's how I interpret what I have read so far.
Last post on this. Promise.
Otherwise, I am getting taken the woodshed this morning on SAVA, but I'm not selling.
In other news, WWR is at $3.85 / +$0.05
IMO, Quanterix Corp generated the data (rebuttal states this) and SAVA interpreted the results. To me, that's how it reads in the SAVA rebuttal. I don't see a problem with this. I haven't read where SAVA is stating that Quanterix interpreted the data.
To me, Quanterix is a "lab". Yahoo defined it as "a company digitizing biomarker analysis to advance the science of precision health". The lab would not be aware of what the SAVA researchers are looking for, unless shared via confidentiality agreement. Still, SAVA researchers for looking for something specific in the data, Quanterix is the company or tool used to get the data. SAVA would have produced the interpretation, not Quanterix and that's how I interpret what I have read so far.
Last post on this. Promise.
Otherwise, I am getting taken the woodshed this morning on SAVA, but I'm not selling.
In other news, WWR is at $3.85 / +$0.05
I've felt the same way up until this morning. Quanterix's PR this morning is contradicting the first rebuttal by SAVA that they released 2 days ago. This needs to be addressed immediately or this stock could be obliterated in days. My confidence is shaken.confucius_ag said:
SAVA
It feels like this is an orchestrated hit job.
I just wish I had the cojones to buy a big chunk down here but there is always the chance there is real smoke to the forest fire.
be interesting to see what happens at open. I would expect further downward pressure and then a dead cat....but then in the absence of positive news.......more pressure. But that's conjecture from an amature...
Here's some of what I'm watching right now.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
I interpret it differently. Generating data is different than interpreting the data. SAVA says that company generated the data, not interpreted the data. Could also be wishful thinking on my part
Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX
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Breaking promise from above...
Quanterix likely produced this statement to cover their arse so they do not get drawn in and sued in this SAVA class-action.
Quanterix likely produced this statement to cover their arse so they do not get drawn in and sued in this SAVA class-action.
You're right, SAVA said Quanterix "generated" the graphs, not "interpreted" them. I believe that Quanterix is distancing themselves from any liability from these class action suits that came out the last 2 days. SAVA needs to release something though.Farmer @ Johnsongrass, TX said:
Thanks for your reply!
IMO, Quanterix Corp generated the data (rebuttal states this) and SAVA interpreted the results. To me, that's how it reads in the SAVA rebuttal. I don't see a problem with this. I haven't read where SAVA is stating that Quanterix interpreted the data.
To me, Quanterix is a "lab". Yahoo defined it as "a company digitizing biomarker analysis to advance the science of precision health". The lab would not be aware of what the SAVA researchers are looking for, unless shared via confidentiality agreement. Still, SAVA researchers for looking for something specific in the data, Quanterix is the company or tool used to get the data. SAVA would have produced the interpretation, not Quanterix and that's how I interpret what I have read so far.
Last post on this. Promise.
Otherwise, I am getting taken the woodshed this morning on SAVA, but I'm not selling.
In other news, WWR is at $3.85 / +$0.05
Producing the data vs producing the charts. One thing is for sure one simple word creates FUD.Prognightmare said:I've felt the same way up until this morning. Quanterix's PR this morning is contradicting the first rebuttal by SAVA that they released 2 days ago. This needs to be addressed immediately or this stock could be obliterated in days. My confidence is shaken.confucius_ag said:
SAVA
It feels like this is an orchestrated hit job.
I just wish I had the cojones to buy a big chunk down here but there is always the chance there is real smoke to the forest fire.
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