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FJ43
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4:09a, 8/20/21

Lottos

So thought it would be easier to put Theta's & Benkiller's on one post.

Notice no overlap and I think a sketchy day for lottos. I have found it best to focus on a couple and not the entire group.


Benkiller's

$CSCO 58c >57.5 | 56.5p <56.6
$BA 217.5c >215.2 | 210p <211.7
$UPST 200c >198.5 | 190p <190.05
$M 22.5 >22.19 | 20p <21.5
$NFLX 555c >548.5 | 535p <540

Theta's

$AMZN 3220C >3200 | 3170P <3182.46
$CHWY 92C >90.75 | 88P <89.36
$FB 360C >357.57 | 350P <351
$SHOP 1490C >1478 | 1450P <1455.94
$SNAP 73C >72.55 | 69P <69.9
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slacker00
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In reply to FJ43 • 5:35a, 8/20/21
AG
Maybe someone can mention what makes a good candidate for a lotto. Aside from high liquidity, I imagine looking at the OI in the chain and corresponding S/R levels but not sure where the picks come from.
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FJ43
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In reply to slacker00 • 5:56a, 8/20/21
slacker00 said:
Maybe someone can mention what makes a good candidate for a lotto. Aside from high liquidity, I imagine looking at the OI in the chain and corresponding S/R levels but not sure where the picks come from.


The setup for a breakout or breakdown is what we are looking for. Then once identified I like to pick strikes that have a high probability of being ITM before reaching the support or resistance target. Picking a lotto outside of the target SR May be cheap but often not the largest return with higher risk.


For me high liquidity is a must.
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BrokeAssAggie
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6:30a, 8/20/21
PROG down 50% this morning! WTF Edit: offering!

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AgCPA95
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In reply to BrokeAssAggie • 6:32a, 8/20/21
AG
CrazyRichAggie said:
PROG down 50% this morning! WTF
40 million share offering at $1.00
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mazag08
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6:34a, 8/20/21
AG
For the third week in a row I bought calls on NIO.

The first two weeks were based on OA tweets. I didn't research levels nor did I figure out where to layer profits. Both failed very quickly and turned into total trash plays. The third was the setup I identified earlier this week where it seemed it had a gap to fill at $41. It got close and then puked with the market. I didn't take my profits because I got greedy and waited for the actual gap fill. Now it would take a sudden explosion next week to around $42 for those calls to be profitable.

Take your profits until we're clearly back in an upward impulsive market.
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BrokeAssAggie
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In reply to AgCPA95 • 6:36a, 8/20/21
AgCPA95 said:
CrazyRichAggie said:
PROG down 50% this morning! WTF
40 million share offering at $1.00


Jeez. It will never get back to the $3 to $4 area.
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J.P. 03
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In reply to FJ43 • 6:49a, 8/20/21
AG
FJ43 said:

Lottos

So thought it would be easier to put Theta's & Benkiller's on one post.

Notice no overlap and I think a sketchy day for lottos. I have found it best to focus on a couple and not the entire group.
Disclaimer: There's a 99.9% chance the data below means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, but just for fun I dropped these plays into chart along with Thursday's closing price and Friday's Max Pain to see if there were any usable insights there:



Obviously, Max Pain does NOT mean a stock is going to close at that price, but I was curious to see if there were any big gaps between the two numbers that could signal a larger move on Lotto Friday. At first glance, it looks like the big money could potentially move $BA upward and $M downward, so I'll be watching those closely. Also, the MM only care about closing price, so just because some of the others on this list are already pretty close to their Max Pain price, it doesn't mean they can't still see a big move either direction in the first hour of trading before moving back the other way. Anyway, let's see how these play out today and if we find any type of correlation, maybe this is something we can start looking at on Friday mornings. If not, this info is worth what you paid for it.

Good luck out there today, gents!
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KY-AG 10
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In reply to J.P. 03 • 7:16a, 8/20/21
AG
Nice post. Will be watching just to see how much magnetism those max pain strikes have on some of these
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austinAG90
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7:21a, 8/20/21
AG
Friday Macros......

Chinese Regulators Send Hong Kong Into Bear Market Territory. Risk Off Continues

The risk off trading that started last week is continuing... Blame the Chinese regulators for trying to crush their previous favorites of Alibaba and Tencent. Baba is down 50% from its October High...Hang Sang is down 20.3%, and Chinese CSI 300 is down 19.5%... Add in soaring global covid cases, and plummeting sentiment from high inflation and continuing Covid fears, and you have equities down again... So far, except for the Russell 2000, the indices are not down much... We doubt we get to 10% off, but it could happen quickly depending on how the Fed is viewed in their tapering...

Risk off continues, but as we start to write we see equities making a bounce.. S+P has made up half its losses from the lows at 4 am... And while the Chinese indices are in bear market territory, their new issue of China Telecom soared as much as 44%, which is the maximum, from its pricing... China seems to be playing favorites under the idea that the rich have made too much and they claim they are trying to redistribute wealth.... Looks to us that it is more of a Xi power redistribution... But non-the-less it is affecting global markets and EMG. Old Wharton College Professor, Jeremy Siegal, is out with a YouTube video calling for a 5-10% correction in the next 2-5 days... Funny, that would put it at about the time of Powell's speech....

Rates... 10 years moved to 1.22 overnight but still could not get through that level... There has been good 2 way flow in London this morning.. And 10 years continue to struggle with getting through that resistance... Inflation is a global problem with the latest German PPI up 14% from expectations, or 10.4% YOY... It is all supply chain and we continue to see it as a global shipping problem....if the 10 year gets through 1.22 level today then 1.125 is the objective, but we don't see the oomph needed to get there right now.... Looks to be a next week problem

The Fed...Kaplan is up today at 11 am.. No surprises as to what he will say... But the Jackson Hole Schedule is out... POWELL WILL SPEAK FRIDAY AT 10 AM EST.. SPEECH WILL BE REMOTE... On the KC Fed channel... We assume that all the stations will carry it... While the speech could be a dud, meaning he won't deviate from the kicking the tapering can down the road until he sees the 9/3 employment number, this will only put more pressure on the next Fed meeting,


It is Friday and August, so volumes will be low... But markets could continue their risk off trading...but we see CDX HY continuing to hold 300 for now.. There was no IG new issuance yesterday... And 10 years can break the 1.22, it is just the target the longs could push through today.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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7:23a, 8/20/21
AG
That $PROG move by management is such bull crap.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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$30,000 Millionaire
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In reply to KY-AG 10 • 7:27a, 8/20/21
AG
KY-AG 10 said:
Nice post. Will be watching just to see how much magnetism those max pain strikes have on some of these


If they are close, it generally happens. Apple is $144
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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McInnis 03
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7:30a, 8/20/21
AG
TSLA with the gap up attempt.
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KY-AG 10
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:32a, 8/20/21
AG
Gotcha. How about for a stock like MSFT. Bullish move this week despite everything else. Pushing on a 297 resistance. But max pain is 290. I'm going to watch (because I have 300c for September) but curious how today competes with the buyers this week
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:37a, 8/20/21
ProgN
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In reply to [removed post] • 7:44a, 8/20/21
jj9000 said:
$30,000 Millionaire said:
That $PROG move by management is such bull crap.


You mean banning him for the 312th time for veering over to Forum 16 and squabbling?


Or...we talking equities here?
LMFAO
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McInnis 03
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In reply to irish pete ag06 • 7:46a, 8/20/21
AG
irish pete ag06 said:
Anyone familiar with #thestrat?

It's a trading strategy I ran across the other day on Twitter. Haven't had time to dig in yet. Football season has me on the clock a lot.
So don't take action on this today but here's an example of where I watch what the strat teaches (this is the 3-1 daily pattern, a favorite of many stratters).....

*Strat Key Info (wicks do count here, not just body):
*1 bar = inside, high and low are inside previous day's high and low (Price consolidation)
*2 bar = directional bar, part of the bar is within the previous bar, but the high or low is extended beyond the previous bar's high or low (continuation or reversal)
*3 bar = Outside bar, high and low are outside the previous days high and low. (Price Discovery)


$FLO
3 days ago - strat "2 bar" continuation bullish
2 days ago - strat "3 bar" price discovery
1 day ago - strat "1 bar" inside bar, consolidation

Today would be decision day on the daily. The idea is to play the break of the "1 bar". In this case "1 bar" low 24.57, "1 bar" high is 24.86. On the break of 24.86 you'd be looking to target 25.21 first, with 25.26 second. (the high of the 2 bar is T1, high of the 3 bar is T2.

Alternatively, with a break of 24.57 you'd look for T1 at 24.53, T2 24.32, and then T3 23.19........

You can use this a go by.

FYI

$PLTR is in the 3-1 daily as well

1H 25.64, break T1 25.94, then sky's the limit
1L 24.14, break T1 23.68, T2 23.559, then puke city

$SKIN also has a nice chart on a 3-1 daily........really interesting flag building here.
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McInnis 03
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7:53a, 8/20/21
AG
Seriously, I need a second set of eyes on this $SKIN chart. What am I missing here? This looks really attractive.


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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to J.P. 03 • 7:58a, 8/20/21
Another thought related to OPEX and max pain based only on my observations - the price doesn't necessarily have to close at max pain for them to soak up the most premiums. They just have to move it their direction temporarily to have people sell options at losses. For instance if max pain for stock X is $5 below the share price on Monday of OPEX week and it has positive momentum, if the MM can stall the momentum or push the price down enough during the week that people sell those shares at a loss or at a smaller gain then the MM have made themselves money during the week. This is why the OPEX week has so many ups and downs. If there is still a large volume of options on the OPEX Friday you might see more of this behavior. If many have sold their calls or puts off by then you might see the stock price behave more normally because max pain doesn't mean as much anymore and it is not longer worth the cost and effort to manipulate the stock price.
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Whitehouse Road
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8:01a, 8/20/21
AG
Has anyone compared max pain to point of control?
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FJ43
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:05a, 8/20/21
McInnis 03 said:
Seriously, I need a second set of eyes on this $SKIN chart. What am I missing here? This looks really attractive.


Chart does look good. Ideally IMO not lose yesterday's low. Added SR levels below as risk off for position sizing if shares.



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McInnis 03
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:06a, 8/20/21
AG
Gap and 20SMA are in the mid 19's.....that would qualify it for Stewie's holy grail setup if it touches there after a slow pullback.
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FJ43
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:11a, 8/20/21
McInnis 03 said:
Gap and 20SMA are in the mid 19's.....that would qualify it for Stewie's holy grail setup if it touches there after a slow pullback.
I have 19.51 as a support level to watch. Probably heavier at 18.49/50 IMO. A back test of the 21EMA around $20 would be cool but may never get there.
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Barty Dont Hedge
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:14a, 8/20/21
McInnis 03 said:
Seriously, I need a second set of eyes on this $SKIN chart. What am I missing here? This looks really attractive.


How do you even look at this chart with all those lines? Are there candles on there somewhere????
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$30,000 Millionaire
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8:15a, 8/20/21
AG
McInnis, clear bull flag, but it's post earnings, so watch for exhaustion move.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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McInnis 03
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:18a, 8/20/21
AG


Big money is paying attention here......
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gig em 02
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 8:27a, 8/20/21
ARK adding more?
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McInnis 03
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In reply to gig em 02 • 8:28a, 8/20/21
AG
At least those we can confirm.
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slacker00
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In reply to gig em 02 • 8:29a, 8/20/21
AG
Read somewhere that BlackRock was adding back again earlier in the week.
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Charismatic Megafauna
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In reply to wanderer • 8:33a, 8/20/21
AG
wanderer said:

Technically they can exercise it at anytime (although I'm not 100% sure that's true if you execute the trade as spread instead of 2 different trades) but unless it's way under the strike it typically doesn't happen before expiration.

I have gotten the short leg of spreads (that were opened as spreads) exercised before expiration.
The solution is to sell shares short before open to cover, or exercise the long leg if it happens when the market is open. It's usually a good thing because you get to close out the spread at max profit without having to wait for expiration
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wanderer
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8:34a, 8/20/21
PROG with a ton of volume this morning, potentially forming that right goalpost. Gotta be a good thing right??
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sts7049
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8:45a, 8/20/21
AG
looks like SPY wants 443 this morning
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FJ43
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8:49a, 8/20/21
CHWY puts paying if you took them
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cptthunder
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8:52a, 8/20/21
Fastest ~$50 ive made in awhile, good old SPY scalp bought a 442C and 3 minutes later it went from .57 --> 1.00
Take that all day erry day
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Ranger222
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8:54a, 8/20/21
AG
Model T on SNOW back to 260?
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