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$30,000 Millionaire
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4:52p, 8/8/21
AG
back at it.

S&P (ES) is just over +1 ATR, not really overtly overbought or anything. I don't see any reason why this won't get up to 4450 or so, or higher, this week. I'd be a little bit more cautious if we rally up there. 4490 I would be out of S&P longs and just wait to see what happens. If you're a bear, you want to see a close below 4390 area. If you get that, low 4300s are in play. If you're a bull, you just want to see it keep grinding up, but not too fast. Start to be on guard if we trade below 4410.

I don't know why I feel this way, but I tend to think we're going to get a big move of some sort because of the positive jobs data and what that could mean for tapering and economic support. Removal of fed liquidity will have a short term push down in the market. What it means long term, I don't know. We're about due for one of those mini plunges. They happen every 15-20 trading days.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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5:02p, 8/8/21
AG
NQ kind of the same thing. I'd pay attention on a daily close below the 8 EMA, but you would buy the dip until that pattern stops working. Otherwise, this can keep grinding up. The Nasdaq has not closed below the mean/21 since 6/3

Easy long is taking a dip to 15235. Easy short is any spike above that range that begins to fail.



General commentary, everything looks really rosy up here. EMAs look great, volume is consistent, not overtly overbought. Don't get complacent. The weekly mean is 14200 and that's a long way away from here. We haven't gone near it since April and this market wave may need to move down. Saying differently, OK to play long, just recognize you're playing on borrowed time for a dip.
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lobwedgephil
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5:03p, 8/8/21
Your ES chart shows it well, look at the last 17 days, and then the 17 before that. Due for one of those pullbacks.
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5:08p, 8/8/21
AG
so here's where things get interesting. Small caps have been range bound since March. Eventually, these will be like a boat anchor on upward movement for the other indexes. The question is when.

/RTY could clearly explode from here, but it could also fail and sell off to the 200. It's really hard to tell direction on this, but I am biased down.

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Spoony Love
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5:14p, 8/8/21
AG
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5:19p, 8/8/21
AG
$THC - not ultra fancy or anything, but this thing has decent support at $67.5. I think this is an OK spot to enter. Sell at 75, cut at close below 67.5. Better spot to enter is above $70.

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5:25p, 8/8/21
AG
$JNPR is pretty interesting. Because you have a potential double top pattern, but it is also closing above the 8 and 21. I would be very interested long ABOVE ATH with a stop at the breakout or I would be very interested on a move to the 21 or below on a loss of the 8 EMA.

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5:30p, 8/8/21
AG
$APO - I would have seen this last week probably if I was active, but I didn't.

Ideal entry at $60.40 or below, going for new ATH. Cut at $59.20. May need to base before taking off, but possible it's gone before we can enter tomorrow.



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5:36p, 8/8/21
AG
High risk - $CNP.

I want to see how this opens tomorrow, but this could be setting up for a really big move. This would be 1-2 week out calls. Needs volume, if I were entering right now, cut would probably be close below 8 EMA. Target $29

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5:43p, 8/8/21
AG
$CVNA came up in my scan. That is a crazy earnings day candle. no idea how you would play it from here. Short float 22%. I would short at 400 if it got there.

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5:47p, 8/8/21
AG
might be time for our friend $TGT to come back to earth. I am posting the daily, but look at the weekly.

$247 T1, $240 T2. Cut at close above $262.

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5:53p, 8/8/21
AG
AustinAg posts about this, but I thought good to put a chart to it. For the newbies, rising bond yields generally results in falling bond prices. Yields are likely as low as they can possibly go, and the job print / expected fed action may have put a top in on bond prices.

So how could you play this? Short TLT or short /ZN /ZB. Bonds move slow, so give yourself time.

Also keep in mind that rising yields = bad for growth stocks and will impact the Nasdaq. So our earlier Nasdaq chart where everything looks rosy: let's see if it can overpower headwinds from bond yields. Don't fight the fed and all of that noise, but what if the fed stops buying as much?

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6:04p, 8/8/21
AG
So, I am thinking about COVID and the idea that we're about to have a mini freak out over the Delta variant. You can pretend this isn't real, doesn't kill anyone, etc., but it is a real disease that is affecting people right now. I hope we have seen the worst, but we probably haven't. It is infecting people parabolically, and so when it declines, it is going to fall off precipitously, but leading up to that, you'll have peak freakout at the case peak. A big tell is going to be if Ron DeSantis caves like the Arkansas / Louisiana people are.

If I'm freaked out, I am going to think about eCommerce and think less about brick and mortal retail like Target (even thought they have an excellent eCommerce capability and excellent curb side pickup). $SHOP is the best of the eCommerce lot. And it just so happens to be in a bull flag with a squeeze and holding the 21. Premiums are expensive, so choose wisely.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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6:06p, 8/8/21
AG
Do you believe in inflation? I do. Eat your cereal.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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6:10p, 8/8/21
AG
For the long suffering, myself included, check this out. $ENG has broken out of the down trend, back tested successfully, and finally closed above the 8 EMA.

I listened to their earnings conference call, it wasn't terrible and they had a good story. Hopefully the bottom is in. If these guys are smart, they'll adapt their business to the infrastructure play in addition to O&G. Would love to get OA opinion if he's reading.

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6:12p, 8/8/21
AG
FJ style chart here

Buy $LOW above $192.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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6:16p, 8/8/21
AG
I saved my favorite for last, $CAT. This will be so easy to trade against. Long above 200 SMA, cut or short below 200 SMA. that said, I think $CAT has bottomed and will start it's reversal.

I didn't draw fibs, but the model T is $223.6. That's the target. You had better bet I will be buying leaps in this.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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SF2004
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 6:52p, 8/8/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
might be time for our friend $TGT to come back to earth. I am posting the daily, but look at the weekly.

$247 T1, $240 T2. Cut at close above $262.

Already lost my ass on this and nike. Sold call verticals.

These two stocks have rode high RSIs for weeks now.
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:04p, 8/8/21
$30,000 Millionaire said:
Do you believe in inflation? I do. Eat your cereal.


I like this one for a fundamentals look. I did well with CVS, KR, and KO earlier in the year looking at P/E ratios and not the TA for "missed" companies that investors might rotate into. K seems like another no-brainer to eventually catch up to the rest of the market. Of course that's barring a big macro dip.
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7:07p, 8/8/21
AG
Gold - oof. Just wow. Normally it recovers fast from these types of moves.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Ferris Wheel Allstar
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 7:16p, 8/8/21
AG
$30,000 Millionaire said:
I saved my favorite for last, $CAT. This will be so easy to trade against. Long above 200 SMA, cut or short below 200 SMA. that said, I think $CAT has bottomed and will start it's reversal.

I didn't draw fibs, but the model T is $223.6. That's the target. You had better bet I will be buying leaps in this.



We don't buy Cat equipment but do other manufacturers. There's a huge backlog building bc of supply chain issues, At least a month and closer to 3 months on bigger equipment. if you don't jump on it before it hits the dealers yard, you're SOL. We have been told yellow iron prices are increasing at least 20% in the next year. I think CAT will post big numbers in the next couple years, especially with this infrastructure deal being rammed home.

Ritchie Brothers Auctions might be something to look at stock wise, after market sales are ridiculous right now.
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7:42p, 8/8/21
AG
not the move you want to see opening up, but it is possible that this was an impulsive reactionary low. If it is indeed the bottom / RDR, then high odds we retrace to 1756 where we can get out of the GLD trade for a scratch.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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7:49p, 8/8/21
AG
the gold move, by the way, is a classic. Look at this! I'd like my vindication of a power reversal from here. I think we need over 1760 to consider this a bullish move vs. just a retracement.

You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
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Triple_Bagger
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:26p, 8/8/21
$30,000 Millionaire said:
the gold move, by the way, is a classic. Look at this! I'd like my vindication of a power reversal from here. I think we need over 1760 to consider this a bullish move vs. just a retracement.

It's climbing back. That was a pretty wild dip. What do you think caused that sell off?
BTFD
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jimmo
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8:28p, 8/8/21
INFY
bullish chart - Daily, weekly and monthly
Friday - took out 2 consecutive inside days.
I've never understood the significance of an "Inside Day".
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Bob Knights Paper Hands
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In reply to Triple_Bagger • 8:32p, 8/8/21
Maybe Kazakhstan nationalizing gold mining?
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FJ43
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8:42p, 8/8/21
VIX to 22 tomorrow would be nice. Oh just for a friend.
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FJ43
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:49p, 8/8/21
$30,000 Millionaire said:
FJ style chart here

Buy $LOW above $192.

3 days sellers trying to push it below $190. If this bounces here could have a nice move back up into earnings. Think they are on the 18th.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to $30,000 Millionaire • 8:52p, 8/8/21
AG
great charts and analysis 30k, as always, thanks brother!

Don't sweat Delta if you are in good health. Just a weaker version of the 2020 one.
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Brewmaster
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In reply to FJ43 • 8:54p, 8/8/21
AG
FJ43 said:
VIX to 22 tomorrow would be nice. Oh just for a friend.
that would be awesome. My new favorite hedge is a weekly OTM vertical on VXX (since we seem to be overdue for a good pullback). Grabbed some Friday before close.
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8:59p, 8/8/21
AG
Some bank had $4B to sell in Gold. Weird. Mancini I think is saying it right - over 1760/1770 for uptrend.
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9:10p, 8/8/21
AG
having a little bit of trouble with the 38.2 fib, which is normal. I'd like to see this clear the 61.8 fib with authority.

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Dan Scott
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10:41p, 8/8/21
AG
If you go back to May 18, anytime crude has topped and taken a dip it was followed by the markets. Crude would then bounce back as would the market and it took about 2 days. Last week crude kept dipping while market made new highs.

Tonight I see crude continues its decline down another 2% The pattern is broken and crude isn't bouncing. I think something to watch this week
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FJ43
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3:43a, 8/9/21

Mornun!

A new day and a new week!

Slightly red early premarket.



This morning for me is sit on hands.
Will be watching for VIX to move back below 17 or to begin rising. Up 7% early here to 17.20s
Will stocks with relative strength Friday show continuation?
Will banks get more steam?
IWM back below the 50EMA. Will it reclaim or was that yet another head fake?

Why I don't know but this is how I feel market wise.....oh have a safety line.



Trade wisely!
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FJ43
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7:04a, 8/9/21


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