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FJ43
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BREwmaster said:

OutlawAG04 said:

BREwmaster said:

cheap lotto idea:
AMD
117/118, cost around $20...net free just above sp of 116. max gain at exp Friday, $81.


Do you use TOS for most of your spreads? I have found fidelity to be a pain for spreads and IBKR I'm still getting used to the system.
I literally use TDA's website right now, but I have downloaded think or swim, need to dig into it.

-signed, Former Fidelity acct holder!
Dude once you dig into TOS you won't go back to TDA's main site. Night and day.
FJ43
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slacker00 said:

On the HD idea, how do you pick your entry level?

Looking back there's a recent LH at 333.45 and then both sides of the gap and ATH back just before last Q earnings. Are you just picking the previous daily high to avoid some chop and hope for continuation? or is there a little more to method to the madness?
A little long but the method I use anyway...

Entry - Yes on previous day's high (today) on this once since it just broke and confirmed the downtrend flag. If it doesn't confirm today's high then may get caught in a fake breakout or sideways trading which will crush premium. If it doesn't have continuation or a day 2 here then back to the trend line most likely as a back test. It really needs to confirm this level before entering IMO. Periodically I will front run (scale in a small entry) if has momentum but not here since this level is decent resistance.

Should it confirm today's high, the 333.45 was back on 7/23 which may serve as potential resistance but I see next primary resistance at 336, 338 & 341.....all ish.

On weekly scalps I seldom go very much OTM. Since closer to expiry on entry here, I will choose ATM or a strike below the target to try and go ITM with the call.

Also to note here.... I manage these types of trades so if I enter and the trade becomes green fairly quick I will set a trailing stop to protect some gains (or prevent turning into a red trade) or trim and trail (sell %'s on the way up). Additionally if the price action loses the entry level or prior close I will often exit the trade. You can always buy back in should it reconfirm.


Keep losses small and winners larger. A scratch is ok and so are small losses. Allowing the loss to grow in hope can wipe out wins.

My target exit will be at 1st major resistance and leave a runner(s) with trailing stops fairly wide not to get caught in a flash down.

Hope that helps understand my sick fetish with weeklies.
FJ43
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Double_Bagger said:

FJ43 said:


Anyone playing ROKU earnings tomorrow?
My brain says no, but the gambler in me says yes. What's the play?
I am not really sure as earnings are 50/50 these days.

It just gave up 100%+ of its recent run up. Guessing I would think ROKU has a good report though.
jimmo
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for TOS
noticed this scan criteria posted on my twitter feed today.
Expect some here saw it - but for those that didn't:
- it's supposed to identify RDRs (red dog reversal) on daily chart.
seems to work pretty good too. (I only entered the circled criteria + set a volume/ price criteria)
jimmo
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here's a good example of the RDRs

$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
jimmo said:

for TOS
noticed this scan criteria posted on my twitter feed today.
Expect some here saw it - but for those that didn't:
- it's supposed to identify RDRs (red dog reversal) on daily chart.
seems to work pretty good too. (I only entered the circled criteria + set a volume/ price criteria)



Post the scan here, yo
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
$ROKU - I would be inclined to bet LONG on earnings. Put credit spread gets you that sideways to up option. Maybe add a couple of OTM verticals. This thing has sold off so much.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Bob Knights Paper Hands
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FJ43 said:

Double_Bagger said:

FJ43 said:


Anyone playing ROKU earnings tomorrow?
My brain says no, but the gambler in me says yes. What's the play?
I am not really sure as earnings are 50/50 these days.

It just gave up 100%+ of its recent run up. Guessing I would think ROKU has a good report though.

I kinda like that the last part of this drop is lower volume. It feels like a bad report moves the price down less than a good report moves it up. Too much sympathy drop already baked it do to NFLX. I didn't look at the play hard enough, but it looks like a good one for ITM calls or even shares with the goal of taking a single on a little pop and having a quick trigger to sell if the report is bad.
jimmo
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RDR

hope that works
Triple_Bagger
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FJ43 said:

Double_Bagger said:

FJ43 said:


Anyone playing ROKU earnings tomorrow?
My brain says no, but the gambler in me says yes. What's the play?
I am not really sure as earnings are 50/50 these days.

It just gave up 100%+ of its recent run up. Guessing I would think ROKU has a good report though.
Im 0 for 3 on earnings play this round, so I want this play to be low risk.

Looking at the call spreads and the risk/reward isn't great
Triple_Bagger
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

$ROKU - I would be inclined to bet LONG on earnings. Put credit spread gets you that sideways to up option. Maybe add a couple of OTM verticals. This thing has sold off so much.


Love seeing how others approach a binary event, really helps me look at the play from different angles.

Love seeing how others approach a binary event, really helps me look at the play from different angles.

Looking at option prices now:

Sell a 410 put @13.10
Buy a 400 put @9.70

Net Credit = $340
Max Loss = $660

Seems like selling an ITM put will yield a better risk/reward:

Sell a 440 put @30.50
Buy a 410 put @13.70

Net Credit = $1680
Max Loss = $1320

How do you normally play these?

BTFD
jwhitlock3
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Sitting on a plane, are these weekly or monthly? And is the bid/ask crazy on them?
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
I need to see where it goes tomorrow but if I were doing it right now I would probably do 415/400 assuming R:R was 1:1
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Triple_Bagger
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jwhitlock3 said:

Sitting on a plane, are these weekly or monthly? And is the bid/ask crazy on them?
Weeklies. The spread isn't great but not terrible either.

P400 9.15/9.70
P410 13.10/13.70
P420 17.95/18.85
P450 37.90/39.55
BTFD
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
With the 410/395, you would make money as long as Roku was over $404.40 at current prices. I would try to get $6 for this. I think the odds of a sub 400 print are low unless they absolutely tank. I think odds of upside surprise are greater so I wouldn't want to do an iron condor.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Triple_Bagger
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$30,000 Millionaire said:

With the 410/395, you would make money as long as Roku was over $404.40 at current prices. I would try to get $6 for this. I think the odds of a sub 400 print are low unless they absolutely tank. I think odds of upside surprise are greater so I wouldn't want to do an iron condor.

Thanks 30k

Just saw this Form 4 come through for ROKU. CEO sold a bunch of shares yesterday, but it was through a
10b5-1 Sales Plan. Looks like there's a pattern of these sales every 2 weeks for the past 2 years, so I don't think it's too concerning for the earnings play.

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20210803/AUV2K22CK222V2Z2222N2CZZNMCUP2729232/



BTFD
slacker00
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AG
Thanks for the detailed response.
BrokeAssAggie
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Does he say this everyday?

Charismatic Megafauna
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AG
Seems like it, but we got an infrastructure bill coming and I'm hanging my hat on Adam's 19 point move
jimmo
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jimmo said:

RDR

hope that works
RDR_Shorts
tried to make 1 to catch RDRs to short. 1st one catches longs hopefully

still have to look thru charts - but overall, might save me some time
OutlawAG04
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jimmo said:

jimmo said:

RDR

hope that works
RDR_Shorts
tried to make 1 to catch RDRs to short. 1st one catches longs hopefully

still have to look thru charts - but overall, might save me some time

Is there a way for this list to be exported to a viewable list if you don't have TOS? Asking for a friend
$30,000 Millionaire
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AG
$CWH earnings were solid. I think we can get to $60.
You don’t trade for money, you trade for freedom.
Tibbers
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Thoughts on $egoc? Chart looks healthy.
McKinney Ag69
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AG
https://instagr.am/p/CSI0PgGs5fg

Ags, Demond Demas's step mom passed away unexpectedly last night and he's asking for assistance with funeral costs. He's been one of our biggest and most vocal supporters and I truly believe he loves being an Aggie despite not seeing the field much this year. I think it would be a good thing to show some support if you have the means to.
Ferris Wheel Allstar
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AG
Challenger 17 said:

https://instagr.am/p/CSI0PgGs5fg

Ags, Demond Demas's step mom passed away unexpectedly last night and he's asking for assistance with funeral costs. He's been one of our biggest and most vocal supporters and I truly believe he loves being an Aggie despite not seeing the field much this year. I think it would be a good thing to show some support if you have the means to.


$10k I'm about an hour.
FJ43
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Mornun!

More or less flat.
Futures held up well overnight.
Europe green
Asia mostly green with Nikkei slightly red.



SPY - Maybe inside day today or do we try and get to new ATH?
Qs - Watching mega caps for strength.
IWM - Can you get over and close above the 21EMA finally? For the love of small caps we need you moving.
VIX - Please knock it off and move and stay below 18.

Oh...NIO popped a buck on the first prints. Maybe we see China stocks move today.

Let's do this!



Trade wisely!
FJ43
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With he NIO pop I checked a few others....

XPEV

Breaking downtrends premarket. Watch for fake breakout.
Needs to confirm / break 44.42.
Next rough resistance 45.74 (over this could run a few bucks), 48.60 & 51.15
MT (11/20-5/21) = 50.37

Weekly 44 or 44.5s might be a play here if this has continuation. Could also go out a few weeks.

FJ43
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NVTA

  • Double bottom at prior support.
  • Downtrend break.
  • Closed above 50EMA at 1st resistance.
  • Could play back to $35 or even trendline dates MT of $42.63
  • Needs to confirm yesterday's high of $31.90 to avoid fake breakout.

August 35c are .20/.25. Could go out further as well. No weekly options.

FJ43
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FJ43
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austinAG90..

This is your wheel house..

tam2002
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AG
Should we expect anything with WWR earnings this morning?
gig em 02
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tam2002 said:

Should we expect anything with WWR earnings this morning?


The moon.



That's a joke by the way.
jimmo
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OutlawAG04 said:

jimmo said:

jimmo said:

RDR

hope that works
RDR_Shorts
tried to make 1 to catch RDRs to short. 1st one catches longs hopefully

still have to look thru charts - but overall, might save me some time

Is there a way for this list to be exported to a viewable list if you don't have TOS? Asking for a friend
looking for export function.. just not seeing seeing it right off hand.
maybe after more coffee - it'll show up
slacker00
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AG
Nothing to see here....

ETA: I don't think it is official, but he is saying it is just a formality at this point.

jimmo
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$CVS getting pummeled in PM
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